Pregame: Illinois vs Texas/Xavier

Status
Not open for further replies.
#276      
HensonHall71
Indy Illini Fan said:
100000% would rather play Texas … Take away Tre Johnson and you win …
Click to expand...
Can we take him away though? Our defense has been making some careers for players this year

Having said that- I agree with you, I’ll take the team that goes one on one and doesn’t play much defense or rebound over a less talented but well coached team in Xavier. Conwell from Xavier scares me a little that he would go unconscious and be the next to have a career night against us
 
#277      
New Creation
illinifan1987 said:
This is the best possible draw for us! It's Final 4 or bust now.
All the big brain board members...:cool:
Click to expand...

Sweet 16 Sport GIF by NCAA March Madness
 
#279      
aaeismacgychel
RollChief said:
This is a tough one to pick for who I'd rather play, but I think at this point I'd rather play Texas at this point than Xavier.

Xavier is the second-oldest team in college basketball and one of the best 3-point shooting teams. They also came into Milwaukee just 2 months ago and beat Marquette, so they know and have won on the floor where the game will be played. Not sure how much weight/value that carries.

Texas is battle-tested and is playing much more challenging talent in the SEC but is 8-13 since conference play started.
Click to expand...
We have a really strange pod- it's basically the working equivalent of a fight club built for teams suffering from bipolar disorder. Out of us, Kentucky, Texas, and Xavier, I have the most confidence in Xavier putting together 3 consecutive good games. That said, they are undersized inside and their ceiling for good basketball is lower than everyone else. Basically, if they catch Texas, us, or Kentucky playing an A level game, they're done. But the question is will they? Us, Texas, and Kentucky all have struggles playing at a high level multiple games in a row.

I think Xavier matches up well against Texas- they're a phenomenal free throw and three point shooting team and they get to the line a bunch and Texas doesn't know how to not foul. Against us, you'd think that with their size disadvantage on the interior they'd be an awful rebounding team, but actually they're one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country and they have big guards. If we keep from fouling, cover their 3 point shooters, and if our backcourt doesn't struggle against their big guards, Xavier could have some problems with us.

Texas playing good ball is probably the overall scarier option than Xavier as if they're hot and playing with confidence we are going to have some matchup issues guarding them and are going to need to shoot it to keep pace. But will they go hot against us?

So my risk assessment would be Xavier is more likely to play good ball against us, but Texas is probably more likely to give us problems if they are playing great ball. So it's a mixed bag. We just need to play good basketball and hope our opponents haven't quite figured out an answer to their consistency issue either
 
#280      
Fighter of the Nightman
So here are some Illini results vs. teams in the same NET neighborhood as Texas and Xavier, which I defined as within 10 spots of either.

W 109-77 at #29 Oregon
#39 Texas: 7-10 vs. Q1, 3-5 vs. Q2
W 90-77 vs. #40 Arkansas in Kansas City, MO
W 87-79 vs. #41 Ohio State (no Ivisic)
#45 Xavier: 1-9 vs. Q1, 8-2 vs. Q2
L 66-70 in OT at #53 Northwestern
W 83-74 vs. #53 Northwestern (no Ivisic)
W 94-69 at #54 Indiana

So we have performed fairly well vs. teams in this bracket ... hopefully that is a good sign for at least a Second Round appearance vs. presumably Kentucky, who is #14 in the NET Rankings, comparable with #15 Wisconsin (1-1) and #16 Missouri (1-0).

Again, if we don't show up ... we're done, period. However, you really cannot complain too much about the draw we have in front of us!
 
#281      
HensonHall71
sacraig said:
I would love to know what has led to his decline. The arm injury? Increased pressure from defenses? Offensive scheme? Problem between the ears? Coaching style?
Click to expand...
I think it’s a combination of several things- teams are aggressively hedging or doubling him off of the high screen and that takes away his ability to do what he does best which is get downhill or create opportunities for others. KJ is not handling the pressure off the screens well, but Big T not being as mobile since the ankle injury has hurt as well. Normally you want your big man slipping that screen if the defense is doing a hard hedge so KJ can find him cutting to the rim, but Tomi just doesn’t seem to want to do that or he can’t. Tomi is purely a pick and pop big recently and defenses know that too, so that is easier to guard if you don’t have to worry about him cutting to the rim

He also hasn’t adjusted well to his usage decline - he needs to find ways to be involved as a cutter or spot up shooter, it seems KJ is a little lost out there if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands

It will be interesting what new wrinkles we put into the offense for specific matchups - like KJ getting the ball out of zoom actions rather than just pick and rolls would be one I’d like to see to get him downhill more- The offense certainly isn’t broken but we do seem to lack some creativity in what we do and as we all have seen when we get our guys going downhill and hitting cutters we can be really tough to stop and KJ is a big part of that
 
#286      
Umit9
Ticket Info for Friday’s Game in Session 2:

Per my IFund Rep, Illini Sections will be 118 and 223.

If I miss out on the application lottery, I’ll be buying as close to those as possible. Hope many here do the same.

Go Illini
 
#291      
OrangeBlue98
BBlock24 said:
Jay Bilas is predicting a Texas win over the beloved. He is now on the sh*t list lol.
Click to expand...
The Athletic's Slingshot section has our game as the 10th most likely upset possibility of the first round.

To be honest, I get it. Illinois was inconsistent the second half of the season, and they'll be playing a team coming off of a First Four win. I'd probably be looking at that game and thinking the same thing. All you can do is go out and play really well.
 
#292      
Illiniguy13
orangem said:
No, we need our lottery pick to start playing like he was until the end of January. With the turnarounds of Tre and Boswell, Morez back, and Tomi getting healthier and stronger, we can make the final-4 if KJ can start being an All-America talent again. We saw he can do it, let's see if Brad can get him to relax and start balling again.

KJ's decline the last six weeks:

Click to expand...
Couldn't agree more. We don't even need him to play like a star...give me "game manager" KJ this tourney
 
#294      
Fighter of the Nightman
21ChampaignSt said:
It's funny. For as happy as we are with our draw, we're going to be a trendy first round upset pick nationally.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think Texas' recent victory over Texas A&M has a lot of people thinking that maybe their talent is finally starting to gel ... a familiar hypothetical! :ROFLMAO: However, we are only 9 days removed from Texas losing at home to #9 seed Oklahoma on the last day of the season when the Longhorns desperately needed a win. Overall, I would definitely still say we got about as good of draw as we could have expected. If I were Missouri right now, for example, I would be very pissed, lol.

As has been discussed, we can absolutely lose to Texas ... or Xavier. And we can OBVIOUSLY lose to #3 Kentucky. However, look at the #11 and #3 seeds we could have drawn by NET Ranking:

#3 SEEDS
#7 Texas Tech
#9 Iowa State
#14 Kentucky
#15 Wisconsin

#11 SEEDS
#36 North Carolina
#31 VCU
#39 Texas
#45 Xavier
#52 San Diego State
#56 Drake

So we got the "middle of the pack" as far as the teams in our immediate bracket, but the following appears very relevant to me...

(1) #11 Xavier has just ONE Quad 1 win on the year, which is tied with North Carolina for the fewest Quad 1 wins out of the #11 seeds.
(2) Despite a nice win over rival Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, Texas ended the regular season losing 7 of its final 9 games, and even with the SEC Tournament run, the Longhorns have lost 5 of their last 8.
(3) #3 Kentucky has a key injury, potentially making them more vulnerable.
(4) We get to play our First and (hopefully) Second Round games in front of an Illini-friendly crowd in Milwaukee.
(5) Because we were placed in the Midwest region, as well, we would then move to an equally Illini-friendly crowd in Indianapolis should we make another run to the Second Weekend.

We got the seed most of us wanted, we got the First Weekend location ALL of us wanted, we got the regional location that everyone hoped for and our #11 and #3 draws were far from the most daunting out of the options available. Regardless of what happens later this week, we should be thankful!
 
#296      
21ChampaignSt
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, I think Texas' recent victory over Texas A&M has a lot of people thinking that maybe their talent is finally starting to gel ... a familiar hypothetical! :ROFLMAO: However, we are only 9 days removed from Texas losing at home to #9 seed Oklahoma on the last day of the season when the Longhorns desperately needed a win. Overall, I would definitely still say we got about as good of draw as we could have expected. If I were Missouri right now, for example, I would be very pissed, lol.

As has been discussed, we can absolutely lose to Texas ... or Xavier. And we can OBVIOUSLY lose to #3 Kentucky. However, look at the #11 and #3 seeds we could have drawn by NET Ranking:

#3 SEEDS
#7 Texas Tech
#9 Iowa State
#14 Kentucky
#15 Wisconsin

#11 SEEDS
#36 North Carolina
#31 VCU
#39 Texas
#45 Xavier
#52 San Diego State
#56 Drake

So we got the "middle of the pack" as far as the teams in our immediate bracket, but the following appears very relevant to me...

(1) #11 Xavier has just ONE Quad 1 win on the year, which is tied with North Carolina for the fewest Quad 1 wins out of the #11 seeds.
(2) Despite a nice win over rival Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, Texas ended the regular season losing 7 of its final 9 games, and even with the SEC Tournament run, the Longhorns have lost 5 of their last 8.
(3) #3 Kentucky has a key injury, potentially making them more vulnerable.
(4) We get to play our First and (hopefully) Second Round games in front of an Illini-friendly crowd in Milwaukee.
(5) Because we were placed in the Midwest region, as well, we would then move to an equally Illini-friendly crowd in Indianapolis should we make another run to the Second Weekend.

We got the seed most of us wanted, we got the First Weekend location ALL of us wanted, we got the regional location that everyone hoped for and our #11 and #3 draws were far from the most daunting out of the options available. Regardless of what happens later this week, we should be thankful!
Click to expand...
For sure. I mean it is a great draw, objectively. It's just interesting how the narrative in our local bubble differs from how the general population feels about chances.

You mentioned Missouri. How about Michigan? 5 seed, they're playing one of the hottest teams in the country first round. In fact, since Jan 1, UC San Diego is ranked one spot AHEAD of Michigan in Torvik. But not only that, their path to the Final Four goes Denver > Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Purdue somehow got a 4 in the Indianapolis regional.
 
#297      
From the cheap seats
In comparing team statistics among Illinois, Texas and Xavier, these stood out to me:
--The Illini would seem to have a rebounding edge. They are 6th in the nation in rebound margin (+8) and 29th in offensive boards (13). Both Texas and Xavier are barely above break-even with their opponents on rebounds on the season. Xavier averages 8 offensive rebounds a game and Texas 10.
--That rebounding edge is offset some by turnover margin. Texas is at +1.6, Xavier at +1.1...and the Illini are underwater at -2.3. Combining the turnover margin with offensive rebounds, the advantage in possessions for the Illini is reduced from 5 to just 1.6 and is completely wiped out against Texas.
--The X factor, if you will, could be 3-point shooting. We don't want to get into a long-distance contest, especially against Xavier, which is 7th in the nation at 39%. Texas is 72nd at 36%...and the Illini are 315th at 31%. Both Texas and Xavier average about 21 3-point attempts, both in the mid-200s nationally, while the Illini average the 4th-most 3's in the country at (gulp) 30 per game.
--You don't want to foul Xavier. They are 6th in the nation if FT shooting at 79.4%. The Illini are pretty good, too, at almost 76% and Texas at 75%.
--Xavier averages only 2.6 blocks (285th) compared to 4.4 for Texas (59th) and 4.2 for Illinois (68th). Considering that Illinois is 18th in the nation in 2-point FG% (57.3%), it would seem to make sense to attack the paint, especially against Xavier. Texas is 147th in 2-point FG% at 51.8% and Xavier is 165th at 51.3%. It looks like running either team off the 3-point line would make sense.
--Fast-break points is another area of concern for the Illini. Xavier is 9th in the nation, averaging 15 points a game on runouts, fueled by almost 8 steals per game. Texas averages 11.5 (6.3 steals per game). The Illini average only 7.25 and are 350th in the country in steals at 4.4. If the Illini commit turnovers that lead to runouts, that might be hard to overcome.
Xavier has been fairly consistent in terms of big wins & losses. They split with UConn, went 1-2 vs. Marquette (2-point games) and played St. John's to OT in MSG. They did lose to Michigan by 25 points and only split with Georgetown. But they but beat Creighton by 22 after losing by 9.
If anything, Texas may have been as schizophrenic as the Illini this season. They lost big to A&M...and then beat the Aggies in double OT in the SEC Tourney. They beat Kentucky and beat Mizzou by 8...but lost to South Carolina, lost to Arkansas (twice) and Ohio State by 8, and to Alabama 103-80. They lost to Tennessee by 4 and by 5 to Auburn.
I would expect a tight game Friday night. All in all, I'd probably prefer to play Texas.
 
#298      
OrangeBlue98
Illiniguy13 said:
Couldn't agree more. We don't even need him to play like a star...give me "game manager" KJ this tourney
Click to expand...
I think he has to be more than a game manager, but he certainly doesn't need a crazy stat line for Illinois to have a good chance. 17/5/5 would be a good line as long as the turnover line is close to 0. I'd probably be really happy with 15p/5r/6a/2TO.
 
#300      
Brosky
OrangeBlue98 said:
The Athletic's Slingshot section has our game as the 10th most likely upset possibility of the first round.

To be honest, I get it. Illinois was inconsistent the second half of the season, and they'll be playing a team coming off of a First Four win. I'd probably be looking at that game and thinking the same thing. All you can do is go out and play really well.
Click to expand...
I was thinking about our win at Oregon and thinking the same thing. We have been inconsistent, but we DO have some big time wins.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back