Pregame: Illinois vs Virginia, Saturday, September 10th, 3:00pm CT, ESPNU

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#101      
Bbuck21
illiram11 said:
I was in the 1st row of the old North end zone bleachers for those 2 blown calls in 2000. I saw them straight on at field level, and i knew both were blown the moment they happened. I've always been curious how i saw them blatantly, but the 7 zebras out there all missed them. That game haunts me to this day. I remember walking out of the stadium on the East side, and i could hear some sort of radio loudspeaker saying there will be a lot of disappointed Illini fans when they go and watch the replays. I didn't need any replays. An article like this with an apology from the Bg 10 would be provide sort of closure. The quiet state of the Big 10, and Kevin Warren, disgust me a bit. Transparency goes a long way, but Kevin Warren lacks anything of the sort. A call to the AD isn't good enough. The fan base deserves more.
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I was at that game and agree it was horrible and I knew it watching live. Then to see the highlights made me sick. Not a fumble, and if he did fumble, he recovered it, then the phantom face mask. Then Lloyd Carr makes his assinine comments. It got worse for me. The next day I go to Lions-Bears game at Soldeir Field. Two Mucks from Fichigan are about 3 rows behind us. Screaming about their victory the day before. There were people annoyed, but I was the only one actually getting angry. I tried to ask them about the plays and if they saw the replays. I got more objectionable responses then, than I do now from people with a certain political affiliation. I stopped and just beared it for the entire game because I had my 10 year-old son with me. That was a very difficult weekend.
 
#102      
illini80
Battle89 said:
Close call I agree but I was in the camp of going for it. Felt it would be too deflating for us to settle for 3 and would fire up Indiana (yes, our getting zero points also fired them up).

My problem was the absolute lack of any creative or diversionary play calling. Basically ran the same play three times, and as others have said, the entire planet knew where the ball was going. Chase is our best, yes, but we have to be able to do more than straight up the middle again and again.
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Particularly when Chase looked to be getting tired. I know he had some great runs that drive, but he looked gassed those last couple of plays to me. That goal line stand will be talked about all season, unfortunately.
 
#103      
Battle89
EyeoftheIllini said:
It is funny because one of the reasons I thought they should take the points is because if they get stuffed that is a huge “live ball” lift for Indiana versus a much milder lift they’d get by holding Illini to a field goal. Given how the game was going and the play of D, I didn’t want IU getting any huge lifts getting crowd riled up. I agree wholeheartedly that if you’re going to go for it — likely knew you were going to go for it when series started — the play calling for the whole series not just the last play wasn’t good at all.

The other thing I think is overlooked in situations like this is what it impact it has on our D. Somebody in this thread mentioned by not going for it you’re telling your offense you don’t have faith in it (which I think is often over exaggerated). But by going for it and not making it, are you telling your D, looks like you’re in this alone? And in the fact that D holds them and then offense turns the ball over next possession. Going for the points gives D a little breathing room and acts almost as a “reward.”
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I actually felt better about the offense after watching the Iowa / SDS game. Two field goals and two safeties, 7-3 final. Talk about inept offensive coaching!
 
#104      
Epsilon
EyeoftheIllini said:
This is what I’ve wanted to say — but had no idea how to — every time analytics are brought up. Thank you.
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No problem. It’s also why analytics is so well suited to baseball and pretty hard to interpret for fast moving sports like basketball (or football). Baseball is a very procedural game with action stopped after each play. So you can isolate variables so much easier. You have a pitcher and a batter, and each pitch is a distinct event. But in basketball you have 10 players in constant rotation / movement. Who’s to say that a certain shot percentage at a specific location around the arc is solely due to a player’s ability to shoot at that location? Perhaps the schematic works better there, or picks are easier to set there, or certain other teams that you have played in the season so far don’t defend hard there, etc. There are just soooo many variables in basketball I kind of wince sometimes when I hear how some teams are using it. It’s just so critical to dive deep into cause-effect relationships when using analytics.
 
#105      
ChiefGritty
Epsilon said:
No problem. It’s also why analytics is so well suited to baseball and pretty hard to interpret for fast moving sports like basketball (or football). Baseball is a very procedural game with action stopped after each play. So you can isolate variables so much easier. You have a pitcher and a batter, and each pitch is a distinct event. But in basketball you have 10 players in constant rotation / movement. Who’s to say that a certain shot percentage at a specific location around the arc is solely due to a player’s ability to shoot at that location? Perhaps the schematic works better there, or picks are easier to set there, or certain other teams that you have played in the season so far don’t defend hard there, etc. There are just soooo many variables in basketball I kind of wince sometimes when I hear how some teams are using it. It’s just so critical to dive deep into cause-effect relationships when using analytics.
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Soccer even more difficult still.

The jocks vs nerds culture war around this stuff can sometimes obscure the more interesting and difficult implementation questions.
 
#106      
SnakePlissken
ChiefGritty said:
I believe all the weeknight games are set before the season for exactly that reason.

And homecoming is always set as 11AM because that's the only timeslot you can "guarantee", which they want in order to set other homecoming-related events in stone several months out.
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Homecoming was an afternoon game last year. I have no idea if that was an outlier.
 
#110      
LFOD
Epsilon said:
One of the most misunderstood things about stats is the assumptions going into a model. Like you said, there is hopefully enough data to make a model valid, but that doesn’t mean that those percentages apply equally to any one specific situation. It applies to all situations that went into the data building the model. In other words, each situation has an inherent bias vs all other data and its contingent probability (based on those specific circumstances) may be different than that of the rest of the data. For example, those percentages of success also include situations where your team has been ramming it down their throat in the red zone repeatedly, etc. All this is to say that game flow does matter, because your situation may be one of those areas that ‘stresses’ a model more than others.

Finally, I get to put my Masters in Predictive Analytics to work lol.
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This is a really good post.
 
#111      
Old.Edgy
Battle89 said:
Close call I agree but I was in the camp of going for it. Felt it would be too deflating for us to settle for 3 and would fire up Indiana (yes, our getting zero points also fired them up).

My problem was the absolute lack of any creative or diversionary play calling. Basically ran the same play three times, and as others have said, the entire planet knew where the ball was going. Chase is our best, yes, but we have to be able to do more than straight up the middle again and again.
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THIS IMHO is more relevant than the discussion about going for it or NOT .... Didn't see the 'savior' Lunney mindset in this play... again IMHO...
 
#112      
TheDrinkinLincoln
Old.Edgy said:
THIS IMHO is more relevant than the discussion about going for it or NOT .... Didn't see the 'savior' Lunney mindset in this play... again IMHO...
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I think Lunney's thing that we liked when he came is he says he wants to get players the ball. Isaiah is probably the only other person I'd trust with Goal line plays and WR screen isn't getting it done there. Maybe an out breaking rub route would have been the way to go.
 
#113      
Pennsy
TheDrinkinLincoln said:
I think Lunney's thing that we liked when he came is he says he wants to get players the ball. Isaiah is probably the only other person I'd trust with Goal line plays and WR screen isn't getting it done there. Maybe an out breaking rub route would have been the way to go.
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It's so simple, you can ram it up the middle twice, but failing these, you run a different play on third down. On forth down you kick the gol dang field goal. Every time.
 
#114      
Cook
Pennsy said:
Note to football staff: If you get stuffed running up the middle 3 times with 1st and goal from the 2 yard line, for jeezus sake kick the field goal on 4th down.
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It was 1st and goal from the 6. First down was a read option that Devito kept off tackle to the right for a yard. Second down was a handoff to Chase off tackle to the left (outside or wide zone read) that he cut back up the middle down to the 1.5/2. Third down was hand off to Chase up the middle (inside zone read), stopped at the 1. Fourth down from the 1 was a hand off to Chase up the middle on a straight ahead dive.
All in all it wasn't bad until the 4 down play call. Not sure if we have any sets with QB under center and 2 backs so you can have a lead blocker, but that might have come in handy.
 
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#116      
kyillinifan
Didn’t try a qb sneak. Could have spread them out to give DeVito an option to run or pass it.
 
#118      
pruman91
skyIdub said:
Naked Bootleg. TD walks in for a TD. Ok, he runs...but still............WALKEN'S in
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740full-christopher-walken.jpg


I fixed it for you .........wow......grammar police is cool...............wow.................instant metaphorically speaking............wow..................
 
#121      
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Bbuck21 said:
OK fine. I was just trying to get feedback from people with more acuity than I have about possibilities for game time not officially announced. Basically, I was trying to determine if there was any possibility it could be an evening game?
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I doubt it. Especially with Ohio State-Michigan State being on the schedule that week which I could see being the ABC Saturday night game. There's actually a really good schedule nationally that week with A&M-Bama and Texas-OU also.

Latest start I could imagine it being is a 2:30 or 3:00 PM start on one of the ESPNs or BTN.
 
#123      
DeonThomas
With the 4-0 (start) bubble now burst, I'm turning pessimist. UVA's passing attack will be better than last year, and twice as good as Indiana's last week. Without an Illini outside pass rush, I'm fearful we may see the Virginia offense running up and down the field all day long on Saturday --- similar to that final Indiana drive.

41 - UVA
27 - ILL
 
#124      
Old.Edgy
In the BB presser, I thought what Bret said at 12:16 to about 13:40 ish, was just about the most honest and most accurate thing he could have said about that (and other) calls by the Refs...
 
#125      
CDRUSN
I was counting on fewer stupid mistakes from our first to our second game, instead we got more. Dumb penalties, turnovers, junior high school level punting, and a suffocating defense that suddenly got timid and laid off receivers to give an inferior team the chance to drive the ball down our throats for the winning score killed us. Coach B, his staff, and these players are talented and capable of much better, but if we don't stop shooting ourselves in the foot, this will be another wasted season.
 
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