Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I guess it goes back to the 90's when Krause said that the only untradeable Bull was Michael. Also, not comparing JJ to Michael, nor Matt to Jerry.
St Louis Cardinals 2025
- Status
Krause was right.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. A complete tear down is absolutely not needed. It would not take a bunch of moves to make this Cardinals team a wildcard team next year and still be set up to compete long term.
This team basically hit worst case scenario with their SP, getting 350 innings of absolute garbage out of Mikolas, Fedde and Pallante, and are still going to be basically .500. You replace those innings with average pitchers (who are likely already in the organization) and they're likely a wildcard team THIS YEAR.
You've got a top 5 prospect in JJ Wetherholt who torched the minors this year ready to step into an infield spot (either taking all of Arenado or Gorman's innings, likely Arenado who they'll dump this offseason), that's at least a 2 win upgrade and maybe more. Signing even an average OF and replacing all of Walker's innings is a 3 win upgrade minimum. That's a likely mid 80 win team with a whole bunch of payroll room to make even better.
The pitching is the biggest wildcard (which is why you don't trade Gray for peanuts), but a core of reliable 3 win players in Winn, Herrera, Donovan and Contreras can win a lot of games over the next 2 years if they can manage to get a 5 win core piece guy (either sign Tucker or Wetherholt hits the ground running). The seats were empty, which is not sustainable for a team in the St. Louis market - ownership needs a splashy signing this offseason to a) get some tickets sold and b) get Bloom off to a good start.
This team basically hit worst case scenario with their SP, getting 350 innings of absolute garbage out of Mikolas, Fedde and Pallante, and are still going to be basically .500. You replace those innings with average pitchers (who are likely already in the organization) and they're likely a wildcard team THIS YEAR.
You've got a top 5 prospect in JJ Wetherholt who torched the minors this year ready to step into an infield spot (either taking all of Arenado or Gorman's innings, likely Arenado who they'll dump this offseason), that's at least a 2 win upgrade and maybe more. Signing even an average OF and replacing all of Walker's innings is a 3 win upgrade minimum. That's a likely mid 80 win team with a whole bunch of payroll room to make even better.
The pitching is the biggest wildcard (which is why you don't trade Gray for peanuts), but a core of reliable 3 win players in Winn, Herrera, Donovan and Contreras can win a lot of games over the next 2 years if they can manage to get a 5 win core piece guy (either sign Tucker or Wetherholt hits the ground running). The seats were empty, which is not sustainable for a team in the St. Louis market - ownership needs a splashy signing this offseason to a) get some tickets sold and b) get Bloom off to a good start.
Ryllini
- Lombard
I hear you, but it is the potential lock out coming December 2026. I just don't see a world where they are buying this offseason. The focus seems to be fix the pipeline then build out from that. I'd rather have the farm more flush coming into 2027 when the rules engagement are fully known.
He is not part of the organization. He is on the radio once a week, so he keeps a close eye on what is going on.
THis would have been a good game plan for a team that won 71 games in one year and turned around and won 83 games the next. Except ownership and management chose to sit out the 2024 off season.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
there is a - ZERO chance that the Cardinals even think about signing Kyle Tucker let alone make an effort to get into that bizarro world signfest..... I wonder if the cubbies would even think about signing him........jmho..........
my hope is that they can trade Arenado somewhere , and his comments about that have been encouraging ......an Arenado trade definitely has to have the redbirds eating at least $ 10-15 M of his remaining $ 40 M to get a decent return of prospects......trading
Arenado opens up 3rd base for JJ Wetherholt and leave him there instead of the revolving position scheme that they have Donovan in.......Donnie Double's is elite in that role evidenced by his Utility Gold Glove award , but maybe he is better suited as the everyday 2nd baseman....
and as far as Herrera wanting to be back as a catcher , my advice for him is to start catching fly balls in the outfield daily if he wants to play defense..........Pages should be the main catcher with Pozo as backup until Crooks or Bernal or even the class A (sp)Rodriguez is ready to take over.....
if I had to make out a roster for 2026 today mine would be....................
1st B.................Contreras
2nd B...............Donovan
SS......................Winn
3rd B................Wetherholt
LF......................Burleson
CF.....................Nootbaar/VS II
RF.....................Saggese
C......................Pages/Pozo
DH...................Herrera/Gorman
Bench....................Walker , Fermin ,
I would not even attempt to figure who would be the SP and BP right now........
there was an article which mentioned resigning Mikolas for next year.....I stopped reading after I saw that...I really really did...
my hope is that they can trade Arenado somewhere , and his comments about that have been encouraging ......an Arenado trade definitely has to have the redbirds eating at least $ 10-15 M of his remaining $ 40 M to get a decent return of prospects......trading
Arenado opens up 3rd base for JJ Wetherholt and leave him there instead of the revolving position scheme that they have Donovan in.......Donnie Double's is elite in that role evidenced by his Utility Gold Glove award , but maybe he is better suited as the everyday 2nd baseman....
and as far as Herrera wanting to be back as a catcher , my advice for him is to start catching fly balls in the outfield daily if he wants to play defense..........Pages should be the main catcher with Pozo as backup until Crooks or Bernal or even the class A (sp)Rodriguez is ready to take over.....
if I had to make out a roster for 2026 today mine would be....................
1st B.................Contreras
2nd B...............Donovan
SS......................Winn
3rd B................Wetherholt
LF......................Burleson
CF.....................Nootbaar/VS II
RF.....................Saggese
C......................Pages/Pozo
DH...................Herrera/Gorman
Bench....................Walker , Fermin ,
I would not even attempt to figure who would be the SP and BP right now........
there was an article which mentioned resigning Mikolas for next year.....I stopped reading after I saw that...I really really did...
I'm not advocating a Tucker level signing (won't happen anyway), just saying having that 5 win guy surrounded by the already prove 3 win guy core is the recipe 90 wins if the SP can just hold serve. They're not that far away from competing as everyone seems to think, it would be dumb just to waste the cheap years of Winn and Donovan and others when there's a good amount of mid-high minor talent (albeit not top line talent but strong depth).
They will do something this offseason though. I get the lockout argument, but ownership needs butts in the seats in 2026 more than anything, especially if there's a lockout looming in 2027
I personally think the lockout threat is overblown. Owners will bend on their hard salary cap ask - all the bluster will just result in higher luxury tax penalties that will in essence be a salary cap and still benefit the owners of the lower 1/3rd of the league in smaller markets since they reap the revenue sharing component of those luxury tax dollars (MLBPA also reaps a lot of dollars out of the luxury tax too).
The other thing to keep in mind is that a ton of players are going to hit arbitration eligibility going into 2027 (the number would go up from 6 to 19). According to BR's estimates, if the Cards do nothing, payroll would increase from $133 million next season to $187 million in 2027, after Sonny Gray's $35 million comes off. This is because the estimated outlay for arbitration eligible players goes up from $46 million next season, to $146 million in 2027.
St. Louis Cardinals Salaries and Contracts | Baseball-Reference.com
St. Louis Cardinals Salaries and Contracts
www.baseball-reference.com
So for one, I don't see the club exacerbating that by bringing in guys on multi-year deals this offseason. One-year deals, sure, but you're not going to get any big names with those. Second, I think you're going to see the club cut bait on a number of arbitration eligible players at next year's deadline and in the 2027 offseason. I don't think either of those lends itself to a team that's competitive in 2026 or 2027.
If you do 3 year arb projections like this at any point, it always looks like payroll is going to balloon due to arbitration raises. There's also some errors on arb years in there, this is a much better list: Fangraphs Payroll TrackerThe other thing to keep in mind is that a ton of players are going to hit arbitration eligibility going into 2027 (the number would go up from 6 to 19). According to BR's estimates, if the Cards do nothing, payroll would increase from $133 million next season to $187 million in 2027, after Sonny Gray's $35 million comes off. This is because the estimated outlay for arbitration eligible players goes up from $46 million next season, to $146 million in 2027.
St. Louis Cardinals Salaries and Contracts | Baseball-Reference.com
St. Louis Cardinals Salaries and Contracts
So for one, I don't see the club exacerbating that by bringing in guys on multi-year deals this offseason. One-year deals, sure, but you're not going to get any big names with those. Second, I think you're going to see the club cut bait on a number of arbitration eligible players at next year's deadline and in the 2027 offseason. I don't think either of those lends itself to a team that's competitive in 2026 or 2027.
What happens, in practice, is half those guys aren't tendered contracts during those arb years, they're traded, or get guaranteed deals ahead of time that maybe buy out a year of free agency. Specifically on that 2027 list, there's essentially 0% chance they'll be rolling on with Gorman, Nootbaar, Pallante, Leahy, and Burleson ALL on Arb 2 or 3 year rates paying real money. And if they're worth cutting bait on, those guys weren't the contributors anyway.
There's just no way DeWitt goes into this offseason, dumps Arenado or Gray, rolls into 2026 with a payroll $80MM below where it was 2 seasons prior, and bleeds another year of Marlin's level fan support leading up to a potential lockout in 2027. If he was going to do that, he'd just sell the team now.
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Well I did say they'd cut bait on a bunch of those guys. But the point is those guys are contributing and you have to replace those contributions with pre-Arb guys to get savings. Our farm does not really have an excess of MLB ready guys to fill that gap effectively.
He's not going to be able to dump Arenado, and certainly won't be able to dump 100% of Gray's salary. And why would he sell the team? Cutting salary makes the enterprise more valuable. With revenue sharing, every team gets like $200 million in revenue, minimum. This is why the Pirates have had the same owner not spend money for the last two decades. You think he's taking losses year after year?
I think it is Bernie, who said, that he believed the Cardinals would be on the hook for 15 million of Areanado's salary. And I believe he also said something like 10 million for Gray's salary.
No he’s not taking losses, none of these owners are (no matter how much they claim it).
But the value of that giant asset that is a baseball franchise is tied a lot to revenue, and the Cardinals revenue as a mid market team is tied a lot to attendance (that has tanked), and TV contract (that got cut in half with the diamond sports bankruptcy).
I mean Bill DeWitt III is dumb, but I doubt he’s sitting there thinking “rather than spend some money in 2026 to protect my big asset, I am going to coast into a lockout that will also heavily damage my big asset”
Was listening to KMOX earlier this week and one of the guests brought up a great point about the fanbase.
You already have enough people complaining about how the front office is running things and the direction of the franchise. If this team goes into a full rebuild (which I believe they absolutely need to do), this team is going to be a 90 or 100 loss team for the next 2-3 years. Those same people are still going to be complaining when this team is struggling, not realizing that it's going to be that way during this rebuild.
You already have enough people complaining about how the front office is running things and the direction of the franchise. If this team goes into a full rebuild (which I believe they absolutely need to do), this team is going to be a 90 or 100 loss team for the next 2-3 years. Those same people are still going to be complaining when this team is struggling, not realizing that it's going to be that way during this rebuild.
Ryllini
- Lombard
Ryllini
- Lombard
I mean…
based on the tea leaves I’m reading, this would be the type of veteran they could look to sign to fill out next year. Of course after the players union calls and puts pressure on them. Maton was a good sign though.
Ryllini
- Lombard
I think as we close the book on the 2025 season, it was quite impressive that this group was technically in it until game 158. This group had an arm if not both tied behind their backs and balled their arses off, especially up until the time of the all star break. I think it was the pirates series then Cubs right before and Dbacks right after the break that really sent this season off the rails. You also can't go 2-4 against the Rockies, a historically bad team, if this team was serious. They go 5-1 and would be right there with the Mets.
If my club is competing I'm all in and would've been behind them buying and trying, but it is time to say thank you and goodbye to most. Let's go evaluate and get some guys. Winn, JJ, Crooks, Rainel (maybe Burly) are position guys that I wouldn't think about moving. That could be a great start up the middle.
The coaching staff was better this year. I think Jon Jay made a big difference in the outfield. Jury is out on Brown. We dont have a guy who hit .300 and 1 with 20hr. That is hilariously not good.
If my club is competing I'm all in and would've been behind them buying and trying, but it is time to say thank you and goodbye to most. Let's go evaluate and get some guys. Winn, JJ, Crooks, Rainel (maybe Burly) are position guys that I wouldn't think about moving. That could be a great start up the middle.
The coaching staff was better this year. I think Jon Jay made a big difference in the outfield. Jury is out on Brown. We dont have a guy who hit .300 and 1 with 20hr. That is hilariously not good.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
Ryllini
- Lombard
Yea, Bernal is another 1. Between the guys listed, 3 are primary catchers. Good news is their ages range from 18-24 so they have some time to figure what they have. I like Rainel the most for the power and maybe could be moved to the outfield. And can any of them call a game and control the running game?
I like Saggesse, I just few him as a guy who could fetch you some more players down the line. He might be more valuable to other teams success now or in the soon to be future than what our Birds are doing now.
I also argued with a Cubs fan long ago that Soler would be way better and have a longer career than Schwarber, so what do I know?
Soler does seem like a wasted talent from a MLB fan.
If you let us win tomorrow, we'll let you win Sunday. Deal?The Cardinals....the cure for what ails you. You're welcome Cubbies. 14 K's today!
Brewers suck. Go Illini.
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It is astonishing the money that is professional sports. Here's a guy with 1 good season and a couple borderline average. He parlays that into a $100 million career.
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