St Louis Cardinals 2026
Cardinals are about 0 for their last 37 in making a big out, or clutch at bat.
Not a fun watch right now
Not a fun watch right now
Olney @ ESPN lists the needs of 12 contenders.
1. Chicago Cubs: Starting pitching
2. Chicago White Sox: Catcher, starting pitcher
3. New York Yankees: Bullpen arm, right-handed hitter
4. Atlanta Braves: Starting pitcher
5. Tampa Bay Rays: Starting pitcher
6. Seattle Mariners: Right-handed hitter
7. Philadelphia Phillies: Starting pitcher, reliever
8. Milwaukee Brewers: Starting pitcher
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Bullpen help
10. Texas Rangers: Bullpen arm
11. Cleveland Guardians: Any kind of offense
12. Boston Red Sox: Shortstop
Six teams SP
Four BP
Five various hitters
Even after the season ends it is nearly impossible for St Louis to acquire the needed top of the rotation SP or quality relievers because the demand is so great. It may be time to move on from a couple of the SP if they can get decent value. McGreevy, Leahy and Pallante have something to offer.
1. Chicago Cubs: Starting pitching
2. Chicago White Sox: Catcher, starting pitcher
3. New York Yankees: Bullpen arm, right-handed hitter
4. Atlanta Braves: Starting pitcher
5. Tampa Bay Rays: Starting pitcher
6. Seattle Mariners: Right-handed hitter
7. Philadelphia Phillies: Starting pitcher, reliever
8. Milwaukee Brewers: Starting pitcher
9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Bullpen help
10. Texas Rangers: Bullpen arm
11. Cleveland Guardians: Any kind of offense
12. Boston Red Sox: Shortstop
Six teams SP
Four BP
Five various hitters
Even after the season ends it is nearly impossible for St Louis to acquire the needed top of the rotation SP or quality relievers because the demand is so great. It may be time to move on from a couple of the SP if they can get decent value. McGreevy, Leahy and Pallante have something to offer.
The game was so bad last night that viewers and listeners on the TV side were treated to another edition of the Thompson/Cary comedy duo. Brad and Chip spent a whole half inning talking about various food options in Canada. We were treated to this nugget that milk in Canada is sold in sacks. Chip Cary has been around long enough not to engage in such nonsense. The Cary/Sweeney duo is much more professional, and there is actually a chance that the vtewer might learn something related to baseball.
Is it though? It's really up to ownership whether it's possible or not. The Cards have exactly $14 million is guaranteed salary tied up next year (if you use tax - if you use cash allocation instead it's way less), for JJ Wetherholt. They also have about $13 million tied up for Arenado and Contreras salaries they owe those players' respective teams. Everyone else on the roster is pre-arb, arb, or a free agent (with a handful of team or mutual options). Baseball reference estimates those Arb and pre-arb players total $45 million. So total allocated for next year on a payroll tax basis is approximately $72 million (assuming all options are declined and/or players on options like May are traded before then).
After after accounting for arb awards for those eligible and pre-arb salaries, if the Cards ownership set a budget equal to the number 10 team in the league (Tigers, at $244 million) this season that'd give Chaim $172 million to add to the payroll.
This is a list of some of the likely free agent pitchers this offseason:
1. Tarik Skubal
2. Freddy Peralta
3. Joe Ryan
4. Clay Holmes
5. Trevor Rogers
6. Brandon Woodruff
7. Michael King
8. Zac Gallen (might be done but potential reclamation project)
9. Shota Imanaga
10. Robbie Ray
And a ton of relief pitching will be available as well. With $172 million to spend the Cardinals could very easily add two or even three top notch rotation pieces and some relief pitching, with some money left over to add Isaiah Kiner-Falefa or someone like that to shore up everyday 3B duties, and suddenly that's a good enough team to compete for the division in 2027. As an example, imagine Skubal takes $50 million AAV and Joe Ryan another $35 million AAV, allot another $22 million for relief pitching and $15 million for IFK and that totals just a $122 million increase to payroll. I think those are higher numbers than those guys would actually go for, and it's still $50 mil under the $172 million number I gave.
Now, will the ownership do that? No, I don't think they will. But the promise was always that when there were enough homegrown cost-controlled pieces in place the payroll would rise to fill in the gaps. Well, those pieces are in place. It turns out we weren't that far away. We need a couple top end rotation pieces, some relief pitching, and one or two bats (ideally one OF and one who can play 3B). An upgrade at catcher would be nice but we can make do as is. That can all be had for under $200 million which would have us right around the top-10, probably just outside of it.
My best guess is we continue to punt. This ownership doesn't actually ever want to spend at that level. They'll use attendance as a justification again. And of course attendance won't go up until they put a better product on the field.
We don't know how many of the potential FA on your list will actually become FAs so it is difficult to even comment on them. Those that do will be in demand as my list showed. Add in the teams that are not on the list that need SP, such as St Louis, and the price for the top end talent will be steep. As you pointed out ownership may well not want to sign then especially with the uncertainty of a lockout/strike.
As far as a top ten team for salary it's been a while. 2019 and then COVID 2020. I can't imagine them jumping back up there anytime soon. They are not going to spend $100 million on new player contracts little alone $172. With some rounding they are at $95 million. I can see them getting to Milwaukee numbers of $135 but that's it. Hello #17 which will probably be #20 in 2027.
Agree totally with your final comments.
Yes, the price will be steep, but ownership can afford to do it. Not saying they will, but they can. If ownership doesn't want to, the question becomes how we'll ever compete. There are no ace pitchers coming out of the system in 2027 or 2028. And probably not in 2029 or 2030 either. Maybe one, if we get lucky with Liam Doyle. Quinn Matthews is our next most promising pitching prospect, and projects as a mid to late rotation guy. We've got a ton of those guys. Which is the point. We have the 3-5 spots and rotation depth locked up for next to nothing. If ever there was a time to spend on bringing in ace pitchers, now is that time.
So if we aren't willing to spend on starting pitching now, then we're probably not willing to spend on starting pitching ever. So what's the plan? Ride out the team control years of our current crop of talent, the Burlesons, Herreras, Winns, and Walkers, selling them off as they enter their last years before free agency, hoping that one day we hit on 3 high end pitching prospects at the same time?
As for the lockout, that's a convenient but non-sensical excuse. While teams are still on the hook for signing bonuses and deferred salaries, they don't pay for base salaries for parts of the season that get cancelled. While no lockout has resulted in fewer games being played, in the 1994 strike the final solution was that players were paid a pro-rated amount based upon actual games played. If anything, this favors signing a big-money player. Let's assume the 2027 season gets shortened to just half the normal amount of games. You could have a shortened season and playoff run with Skubal as your ace pitcher for half his normal salary. Why would that be a bad thing?
So then we likely won't see a division title (much less WS contention) in the next decade. Which unfortunately I agree is the likely scenario. But it's not what they sold this re-build as. There was talk of this being a quick re-build. Well here we are, in year 1 of the rebuild, and things don't look so bad. We got rid of all long term financial obligations, have the #27 payroll in the league, and due to some strides taken by home-grown talent are on pace to finish right around .500 (currently on pace for an 80-82 season). So what are we waiting for?
Another question this raises is, was the rebuild even necessary? Look at the years Gray and Contreras are having. Add them back in and try to fortify the OF keep Donovan to play 3rd base, get payroll back to 2024 levels, and maybe we'd be in contention this year.