WRT Martin, performance in the NIT should not affect our evaluation of his coaching ability. The NIT is a glorified (barely) exhibition tournament. Combine that with speculation about his future at Cal, and you have a recipe for a letdown.
The upside with Cuonzo seems pretty clear. In the short term, he would keep the current class together and put you in a great position to land quality talent over the next few years, including Mark Smith and other ESL area kids like E.J. Liddell. He's also shown he can recruit Chicago, and you might even be able to get Charlie Moore.
In the long term, it's much less clear to me how he would do. Is he a great X and O's guy? Evidence suggests he isn't. But paired with a solid group of assistants, he could still be very successful here.
The bottom line on Counzo is that he would be a boost in the short term, and a question mark in the long term. I'd feel better with him at the helm than if we had kept Groce, but there's no doubt that he's below that top level of candidates.