USC, UCLA to join the Big Ten in 2024

Shief · Jul 3, 2022

After reading too many articles and watching too many YouTube videos, I am going to guess, and this is likely not a new prediction, that USC and UCLA will be joined by other western teams to bring the B1G to 20 or 24 teams.

If the B1G goes to 20 teams, my best guess for the remaining four slots would go to Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal/Notre Dame. This will likely be Notre Dame's last chance to join the B1G forever, or until the conference goes to 24. I can see a 10 game conference schedule where each team has 1 protected rival and the 9 games are used play the other 18 teams or a 9 game schedule playing the your 4 pod-mates annually and 5 game against the other 15 teams.

If B1G goes to 24 now, I can see the eight slots going to a combination of Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Notre Dame. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal would be locks in this setup with the other teams competing for the four open slots. This setup would be harder to estimate a schedule for but a unique idea I have is an 11 game conference schedule where you have 5 protected games and 6 games that rotate with the 18 other teams.

If the B1G does massively raid the Pac-12, then I can see the remaining Pac-12 teams merging with the Big 12, potentially minus West Virginia, to form what I will dub the 'Western Conference.'

Good luck to the powers that be putting the new schedules set up for 2024 and after.

sacraig · Jul 3, 2022

Shief said:
After reading too many articles and watching too many YouTube videos, I am going to guess, and this is likely not a new prediction, that USC and UCLA will be joined by other western teams to bring the B1G to 20 or 24 teams.

If the B1G goes to 20 teams, my best guess for the remaining four slots would go to Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal/Notre Dame. This will likely be Notre Dame's last chance to join the B1G forever, or until the conference goes to 24. I can see a 10 game conference schedule where each team has 1 protected rival and the 9 games are used play the other 18 teams or a 9 game schedule playing the your 4 pod-mates annually and 5 game against the other 15 teams.

If B1G goes to 24 now, I can see the eight slots going to a combination of Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Notre Dame. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal would be locks in this setup with the other teams competing for the four open slots. This setup would be harder to estimate a schedule for but a unique idea I have is an 11 game conference schedule where you have 5 protected games and 6 games that rotate with the 18 other teams.

If the B1G does massively raid the Pac-12, then I can see the remaining Pac-12 teams merging with the Big 12, potentially minus West Virginia, to form what I will dub the 'Western Conference.'

Good luck to the powers that be putting the new schedules set up for 2024 and after.

I think if they go to 24 teams they'll likely create 3 divisions of 8 teams or 4 divisions of 6 teams to facilitate scheduling. Your then have a 2 round B1G playoff to crown a champion.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

3 days ago I would have never guessed USC and UCLA would come into the B1G. I will never guess correctly about ND, so I wont

Joel Goodson · Jul 3, 2022

Shief said:
After reading too many articles and watching too many YouTube videos, I am going to guess, and this is likely not a new prediction, that USC and UCLA will be joined by other western teams to bring the B1G to 20 or 24 teams.

If the B1G goes to 20 teams, my best guess for the remaining four slots would go to Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal/Notre Dame. This will likely be Notre Dame's last chance to join the B1G forever, or until the conference goes to 24. I can see a 10 game conference schedule where each team has 1 protected rival and the 9 games are used play the other 18 teams or a 9 game schedule playing the your 4 pod-mates annually and 5 game against the other 15 teams.

If B1G goes to 24 now, I can see the eight slots going to a combination of Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Notre Dame. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal would be locks in this setup with the other teams competing for the four open slots. This setup would be harder to estimate a schedule for but a unique idea I have is an 11 game conference schedule where you have 5 protected games and 6 games that rotate with the 18 other teams.

If the B1G does massively raid the Pac-12, then I can see the remaining Pac-12 teams merging with the Big 12, potentially minus West Virginia, to form what I will dub the 'Western Conference.'

Good luck to the powers that be putting the new schedules set up for 2024 and after.

20 teams max for the near future. Agree on the schools. If ND joins and the ACC destabilizes, the BIG will probably expand to 24 (not necessarily all ACC schools).

Shief · Jul 3, 2022

sacraig said:
I think if they go to 24 teams they'll likely create 3 divisions of 8 teams or 4 divisions of 6 teams to facilitate scheduling. Your then have a 2 round B1G playoff to crown a champion.

You may be correct sacraig, we will have to see what happens and I am receptive to the 4 team playoff idea.

I have a rough 5 protected game setup assuming the 24 team setup that does not include Notre Dame. This setup could potentially be boosted by having the 4 team conference playoff.

Old.Edgy · Jul 3, 2022

PNWIllini said:
UW (Washington) people are dealing with not only being blindsided by their own conference, but also in having PTA mom Jen Cohen “in charge.” Not to mention the 10 years they just had watching Larry Scott create this disaster in the first place. Alumni of a proud football school are genuinely worried right now in Seattle.

We are so damn fortunate the music changed when we had Whitman, Underwood and Bielema in charge. Three big picture, strong leader, great vision guys. They are the biggest reason I am looking at this thinking opportunity for Illinois rather than fear and panic at unwanted change.

For sure on the fortunate happenstance of having Whitman, et al on board now... And it's funny (and sad) reading the UDub forums right now... some are really beyond ballistic...

Old.Edgy · Jul 3, 2022

ILL_INI said:
If there was really that much money to be had out there, the PAC 12 would have had a much better media deal. And I don't think anyone relishes the idea of traveling to two (or more!) additional conference foes on the Pacific coast for all sports for what would be a very marginal, if that, increase in revenue. Really, I think the conference is finished expanding until Notre Dame says otherwise or something happens with the ACC.

I think I saw this same sentiment during the LAST expansion... The more we pine away about waiting for ND, the more they know they own us... NO to ND... Now and forever !

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

The talk had been 70-80M per school in the next deal. So any teams we add would have to create at least that much additional revenue per school correct? Would we really add additional schools just for a numbers/monopoly play?

I still wonder about the behind closed doors discussions happenings at and with OSU and Michigan by the SEC.

Ander1345 · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
The talk had been 70-80M per school in the next deal. So any teams we add would have to create at least that much additional revenue per school correct? Would we really add additional schools just for a numbers/monopoly play?

I still wonder about the behind closed doors discussions happenings at and with OSU and Michigan by the SEC.

If someone makes lots of money, the answer is always yes.

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

My simple mind still finds it difficult to see why a mega conference with 3-6 divisions is better than the individual conferences marketing themselves as a package deal to the networks. Do they just not trust each other enough to do that, or do they care so little what happens to other schools and their athletes that they would sell them out for an extra couple bucks if they can? Perhaps what has transpired recently is in fact the answer to that question.

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

Ander1345 said:
If someone makes lots of money, the answer is always yes.

I probably worded that poorly as I’ve been known to do. I was trying to ask is would we really add schools like Utah and Colorado among others, just so another conference couldn’t pick them up even though they would bring in less $$ than they will get from the B10?

Joel Goodson · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
My simple mind still finds it difficult to see why a mega conference with 3-6 divisions is better than the individual conferences marketing themselves as a package deal to the networks. Do they just not trust each other enough to do that, or do they care so little what happens to other schools and their athletes that they would sell them out for an extra couple bucks if they can? Perhaps what has transpired recently is in fact the answer to that question.

Really? All it takes is a cursory look at the annual revenue per school by conference and graphs of revenues over time.

illini80 said:
I probably worded that poorly as I’ve been known to do. I was trying to ask is would we really add schools like Utah and Colorado among others, just so another conference couldn’t pick them up even though they would bring in less $$ than they will get from the B10?

No chance, IMO.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
The talk had been 70-80M per school in the next deal. So any teams we add would have to create at least that much additional revenue per school correct? Would we really add additional schools just for a numbers/monopoly play?

I still wonder about the behind closed doors discussions happenings at and with OSU and Michigan by the SEC.

NO ONE is leaving the B1G. especially Michigan

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

Joel Goodson said:
Really? All it takes is a cursory look at the annual revenue per school by conference and graphs of revenues over time.

I know I’m living in a fantasy world. Lol

For the legal experts here, the NCAA has been able to skirt monopoly laws in the past. Any chance the courts take a harder view of this current consolidation?

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

Mr. Tibbs said:
NO ONE is leaving the B1G. especially Michigan

Ok. If you are Ohio State and the SEC offers you 120M to jump youre saying there’s no chance? I don’t care what number you want to use, but they are the most valuable brand in the conference and they share that media revenue with teams like Illinois. If they can get something closer to their actual value you know for a fact they wont consider it apparently? For the record, it was a hypothetical, and I’m as confident those conversations are taking place as you are they won’t leave. We can both be right.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
I know I’m living in a fantasy world. Lol

For the legal experts here, the NCAA has been able to skirt monopoly laws in the past. Any chance the courts take a harder view of this current consolidation?

they are a non profit, and ant school can leave NCAA and exist outside the rules and try life in the NAIA

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
Ok. If you are Ohio State and the SEC offers you 120M to jump youre saying there’s no chance? I don’t care what number you want to use, but they are the most valuable brand in the conference and they share that media revenue with teams like Illinois. If they can get something closer to their actual value you know for a fact they wont consider it apparently?

SEC cant offer them that and not pay that to every school in the conference. and they cant
it doesnt work that way
but of all schools in the B1G, O$U is by itself in many ways. That said, they are still a decent academic school and would never leave

illini80 · Jul 3, 2022

Mr. Tibbs said:
SEC cant offer them that and not pay that to every school in the conference. and they cant
it doesnt work that way
but of all schools in the B1G, O$U is by itself in many ways. That said, they are still a decent academic school and would never leave

Ok, I had a long response typed out, but it’s a nice day on a holiday weekend. I’m heading out to enjoy it rather than discuss things I have no control over anyway!

illinistephen · Jul 3, 2022

⁹

illini80 said:
Ok. If you are Ohio State and the SEC offers you 120M to jump youre saying there’s no chance? I don’t care what number you want to use, but they are the most valuable brand in the conference and they share that media revenue with teams like Illinois. If they can get something closer to their actual value you know for a fact they wont consider it apparently? For the record, it was a hypothetical, and I’m as confident those conversations are taking place as you are they won’t leave. We can both be right.

The other side of the coin is that wins and losses are a zero sum game. Put only the very very top teams all together and see what happens when Michigan or Florida go 2-10 and are last in the super conference. They already flip out over a 7-5 season. We can bag on Rutgers and Vanderbilt all we want but this tier of schools provide a floor of success for the USC and Bama's of the world to not completely bottom out.

illinistephen · Jul 3, 2022

Shief said:
You may be correct sacraig, we will have to see what happens and I am receptive to the 4 team playoff idea.

I have a rough 5 protected game setup assuming the 24 team setup that does not include Notre Dame. This setup could potentially be boosted by having the 4 team conference playoff.

I like the idea of a 4 team big ten playoff. Do you need divisions though? I see no non-con rivals IL has that I'd want to face more than conference schools. If you did 12 conference games you almost play everyone in conference already even with 16 teams. then just have the top 4 in the standings go to a playoff.

RML · Jul 3, 2022

Shief said:
After reading too many articles and watching too many YouTube videos, I am going to guess, and this is likely not a new prediction, that USC and UCLA will be joined by other western teams to bring the B1G to 20 or 24 teams.

If the B1G goes to 20 teams, my best guess for the remaining four slots would go to Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal/Notre Dame. This will likely be Notre Dame's last chance to join the B1G forever, or until the conference goes to 24. I can see a 10 game conference schedule where each team has 1 protected rival and the 9 games are used play the other 18 teams or a 9 game schedule playing the your 4 pod-mates annually and 5 game against the other 15 teams.

If B1G goes to 24 now, I can see the eight slots going to a combination of Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Notre Dame. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal would be locks in this setup with the other teams competing for the four open slots. This setup would be harder to estimate a schedule for but a unique idea I have is an 11 game conference schedule where you have 5 protected games and 6 games that rotate with the 18 other teams.

If the B1G does massively raid the Pac-12, then I can see the remaining Pac-12 teams merging with the Big 12, potentially minus West Virginia, to form what I will dub the 'Western Conference.'

Good luck to the powers that be putting the new schedules set up for 2024 and after.

My neighbor went to Cal, and says there's been talk of giving up football. University had to pay a ton to make the stadium earthquake resistant (it's built on the fault line), and is not happy about it. Nobody goes to the games. Based on talking to him, I think the B1G passes on Cal.
He also says nobody cares about Stanford football, either.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

RML said:
My neighbor went to Cal, and says there's been talk of giving up football. University had to pay a ton to make the stadium earthquake resistant (it's built on the fault line), and is not happy about it. Nobody goes to the games. Based on talking to him, I think the B1G passes on Cal.
He also says nobody cares about Stanford football, either.

I’m getting that message from various sources
Starting to think both those schools are not in play .

Old.Edgy · Jul 3, 2022

RML said:
My neighbor went to Cal, and says there's been talk of giving up football. University had to pay a ton to make the stadium earthquake resistant (it's built on the fault line), and is not happy about it. Nobody goes to the games. Based on talking to him, I think the B1G passes on Cal.
He also says nobody cares about Stanford football, either.

35 years ago, when I was living and working in Silicon Valley, I heard these same things... Then along came Willingham, Harbaugh, and Tedford at Cal. A school that provided Illinois with 2 head coaches - Pete Elliott and Mike White... While I admit there is a lot of 'craziness' on one side of the Berkeley campus, the other side is quite sane... While both Cal and Stanford once gave up Football for Rugby (1905-6 to 1914-15), and they might in the future give it up for 'Futbol', I doubt that happens in the near term....

ChiefGritty · Jul 3, 2022

illini80 said:
I know I’m living in a fantasy world. Lol

For the legal experts here, the NCAA has been able to skirt monopoly laws in the past. Any chance the courts take a harder view of this current consolidation?

What we're seeing is the opposite of monopolistic practices really. It's the pro leagues that are anticompetitive cartels.

Now, if these leagues made an agreement to only schedule one another, that might be a different matter. Schools like their scheduling freedom for the moment, we'll see where it goes.

Mr. Tibbs said:
That said, they are still a decent academic school and would never leave

The Big Ten smartest special friends stuff is honestly like a kid believing their dad is the strongest guy in the whole world.

Revenue growth is the beast that must always be served. Ever closer concentration of the biggest brands is the way to serve it. Every single move ever in this carousel has been made to advance that process. If the money's right, the B1G is over. If the money's right, the SEC is over. If the money's right, they're both over and some super league takes their place. I doubt we're close to any of those outcomes, a duopoly seems pretty durable, but it does keep accelerating faster than I'd predict. We will get there eventually.

Mr. Tibbs · Jul 3, 2022

ChiefGritty said:
What we're seeing is the opposite of monopolistic practices really. It's the pro leagues that are anticompetitive cartels.

Now, if these leagues made an agreement to only schedule one another, that might be a different matter. Schools like their scheduling freedom for the moment, we'll see where it goes.

The Big Ten smartest special friends stuff is honestly like a kid believing their dad is the strongest guy in the whole world.

Revenue growth is the beast that must always be served. Ever closer concentration of the biggest brands is the way to serve it. Every single move ever in this carousel has been made to advance that process. If the money's right, the B1G is over. If the money's right, the SEC is over. If the money's right, they're both over and some super league takes their place. I doubt we're close to any of those outcomes, a duopoly seems pretty durable, but it does keep accelerating faster than I'd predict. We will get there eventually.

who knows anything what happens next month
next year , or 5 years from now

if you do , you are then in the wrong business and should right away start marketing your services to those that will pay MILLIONS for your expertise

oh , and my dad was Moose Cholak .