So where does Indiana go then?Definitely their schedule. "Experts" were saying all week that they'd be out with a blowout to OSU. We'd be 10-0 with the same schedule. I had a fellow gambler buy me a screwdriver tonight. Granted, it was after I had a 3 and 5 card straight flush in 3 card poker. Orange=Illini...Orange also=citrus. Bada bing, bada boom...Go ahead and plan your trip to the old folk state!
Week 13 News & Games
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lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yeah, Indiana has had a weak schedule, but they’re ranked 11 in KFord. They’re legit. They aren’t like BYU who was 9-0 two weeks ago but 28 in KFord and inevitably lost their next two to the 31 and 35 ranked KFord teams.Definitely their schedule. "Experts" were saying all week that they'd be out with a blowout to OSU. We'd be 10-0 with the same schedule. I had a fellow gambler buy me a screwdriver tonight. Granted, it was after I had a 3 and 5 card straight flush in 3 card poker
True...but none of this will matter after a 1-10 team beats them next week
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Exactly correct. There is nearly 0% chance a 3 loss SEC team with a "bad loss" (i.e., Alabama) gets in over a 1 loss B1G team with only loss being to #2 team in CFP rankings (regardless of strength of schedule). Now if IU stumbles next week, then debate on!
The SEC woes today benefited IU tremendously.
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After what they did to Florida State last year nothing the pageant directors do with selection choices surprises me.
It is after all a pageant of selected teams, not a tournament of winners that earned their way in using an agreed to set of rules. Those may both align if the teams the CFP committee wants are the ones who win and pass the eye test. But there is no guarantee they use “settled by scores on the field” as the only criteria for selection.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Alabama sure failed the "eye test" losing by 21 to a pretty bad Oklahoma team (they scored only 3 points!). A 3 loss team cannot jump a 1 loss B1G team ever. In fact, almost all bubble SEC teams failed the eye test yesterday.
If IU handles business handily against Purdue, IU is a virtual lock for the CFP.
illinidarrin
- from parts unknown
I really don't like this guy.
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Now that the true INDIANA is revealed.....I think they gotta move down, yes they beat Florida Intern, west Illinois and Charlotte...but that strength of schedule is the real look. ESPN says 160th in the nation SoS. No ranked teams defeated.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Maybe I’m wrong, but I am getting major Tom Allen/Mel Tucker vibes from this years IU team.
Import most of a successful G5 team. Historically easy schedule. Maybe some of that basketball NIL $$ gets diverted but not enough to replenish in the portal to the level they are at now. I think they have a pretty big drop off next year.
Maybe Cignetti is the real deal and he can throw together a roster than wins 8-9 games next year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this was more flash in the pan than truly arriving as a top tier BIG team.
Feel like what we are building is much more sustainable long term.
Import most of a successful G5 team. Historically easy schedule. Maybe some of that basketball NIL $$ gets diverted but not enough to replenish in the portal to the level they are at now. I think they have a pretty big drop off next year.
Maybe Cignetti is the real deal and he can throw together a roster than wins 8-9 games next year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this was more flash in the pan than truly arriving as a top tier BIG team.
Feel like what we are building is much more sustainable long term.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Hmmmm…. Where have I seen this play before? 
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Given the time on clock left, the score, and what PSU is playing for, this had to be one of Franklin's ballsiest decisions of his tenure. If that fails, Minnesota is practically in field goal position already to win the game. They would be calling for his head in Happy Valley if that call failed and they went on to lose (possibly out of the CFP).Hmmmm…. Where have I seen this play before?
Indiana was going to play Louisville this year but than backed out.
Only one state school made the FCS playoffs. ISU is the #12 national seed and will play SEMO on Saturday at 11:00 AM CT on ESPN+. The game will be played in Cape Girardeau due to ISU hosting the state football championships next weekend. The winner of the game will travel to #5 national seed UC Davis.
I like the call. There was 3:447 left. If they punt and Minnesota drives, the FG/TD could come too late for PSU to come back. If the fake doesn't work, Minnie likely scores quickly, leaving time for PSU to retaliate.
I more questioned going for the 4th down with 30 seconds left in chip shot field goal range - while up 1 point.
SampsonRelpenk
- Edwardsville, IL
Had some tough injuries, but my Salukis sure disappointed this year.
In all essence, if you look at the play and how it ended up, there was really no chance of it not working.
There’s an easy way to solve all this Playoff stuff.
Every season... just give automatic berths to Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, Clemson... that makes 11 right there.
Everybody else is playing for ONE SPOT.
Solved!
Or just have two sides to the playoffs bracket with and expansion to 32 teams. One side is champions from big/acc/B12, all the G5 conferences and 6 at large (16 teams). Other side of the bracket is the entire SEC, because *it just means more*
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yeah, Indiana is legit this year. Definitely a soft schedule, but still, they’re a top 15 team in college football and the advanced stats support that.
But—they’re losing 16 of 22 starters this offseason. Not including any transfers out or Juniors going pro. So without a major haul in the transfer portal, they’ll go from one of the oldest teams in the B1G to the one of the youngest.
For context, we’re on pace to lose just 9 out of our 22 starters (which includes Jacas).
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I frequently am), but if the advanced stats are describing what Indinia has done this year against a beyond weak-sister SOS, would those same stats tell a different story if they had played a top 25 SOS? They played one of the weakest schedules in the nation, and I would think their statistics, while indicating a good team against below average opponents, would reflect that they are better than if they had played a tougher schedule? Admittedly, there are a gozillion folks here on Loyalty that digest and follow the stats more than I do, but I seem to recall that the stats most use are descriptive of past performance.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Starting with SOS, their schedule has been soft, but it hasn’t been *that* soft. Using ESPNs resume SOS, Indiana’s schedule is ranked 51st out of 124 teams.
Oregon is 52, Miami is 59, Colorado is 60, Notre Dame is 78.
So there are other fringe playoff teams with weaker SOS than Indiana.
For advanced stats, most have both forward looking stats and resume stats.
Forward looking stats is what I referenced earlier. In KFord, Indiana is currently ranked 11th, which accounts for their strength of schedule. So even with a more difficult schedule, their ranking would likely be the similar, though they might have picked up an extra loss along the way.
KFord also has resume stats, which is past looking, and takes into account the quality of opponents you have beaten and how well you have played in those games (this is basically an advanced stats version of the AP poll).
In the resume stats, KFord has Indiana at 7.
So long story short, Indiana is a legit playoff team. Weak schedule, yes, but they won the games and have looked good doing it.
KFord is just one advanced stats site, there are multiple, but they’re usually pretty similar this late in the season.
You can check KFord out for yourself here:
KFord Ratings
Get the latest college football power ratings and rankings on Kelley Ford Ratings, your go-to source for college football analysis.
kfordratings.com
So when utilizing stats, it's important to know that the statistics of anything won't tell you what will happen, just the overall likelihood of something happening when you consider x, y, and z specific variables.
When it comes to statistical engines to analyze college football teams, there are two different major philosophies: There are the predictive based engines (these are the far more complicated ones) that try utilizing the player, team, performance, and game data to predict a score between two teams or how a team will perform throughout a season. This is difficult, there is a lot of error involved, and those that do it well still tend not to outperform Vegas on the whole (who are also doing it themselves, just better). Then there are the performance based models, that don't really care about who will win, but instead takes all game data and iteratively analyzes each team to discern how a team's performance compares to other teams. These engines are simpler than the predictive engines, but they do have their own complications, especially because 12 game data points in the grand scheme of things is quite small.
So in your question you are asking for a predictive solver around Indiana, however, what you really are asking is how does Indiana's performance this season compare to SEC 3 loss teams with much tougher SOS. And the performance based solvers will tell you that Indiana compares very favorably. And that makes sense, they've blown out pretty much all the average to good competition they've faced while only losing to a Top 5 team on the road, whereas the 3 loss SEC teams have multiple losses some to .500 teams, teams of similar strength Indiana has destroyed. So Indiana gets the performance engines seal of approval.
However, the predictive engines, based on their inputs might still actually favor those 3 loss SEC teams over Indiana as they take far more into account than just on field performance. It's why if Indiana was playing say Alabama in the 1st round of the playoffs, the line might favor Alabama. It's simply because the performance engines will say Indiana performed better this season relative to Alabama after accounting for schedule, however the underachieving Alabama would be predicted to beat the overachieving Indiana on a neutral field.
Does that help make sense of this a bit better? Oh and just as an aside, I am always always always in favor of Performance based engines when it comes to seeding. In my opinion, predictive based engines should be used for betting and prognostication purposes, otherwise you aren't rewarding teams who actually performed the best, you're rewarding teams with more talented rosters. You want to make the CFP, then win the games on your schedule. You lose 3 games on your schedule, and you should thank your lucky stars if you get in, because you aren't all that deserving of the spot
Upon further review I'm beginning to think IU isn't as big a fraud as previously thought. True 38-15 is 38-15. 2 ST blunders cost them 14 pts and the last TD was scored in garbage time. Doubt we'll get a rematch on a neutral field and maybe the result might be the same or worse but maybe IU is more for real than we thought.
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