Week of 1/13 Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#51      
Illini2010-11
SkyysNotFalling said:
My eyes tell me Michigan is good but as the season is going along you kinda got squint to find anything very good on their resume…

2 losses to Arkansas & Oklahoma who are now a combined 0-8 in the SEC

A loss to Wake to open the season who, although are 13-4, their other wins of note are… NC State & Stanford?

UCLA win is aging like spoiled milk…

Virginia Tech is 8-9

So that really leaves Wisconsin, Iowa & USC as key wins for them…. 2 of which very well are both on the outside looking in of the bracket was revealed today…

Then you’ve got Sparty who have yet to beat a B1G team who is currently over .500 in conference play.. lol. On top of that, their “marquee” win is against a UNC team who already has dropped 6 games… and high and mighty Colorado who is 0-5 in the B12..

Should we keep going?

Purdue has won 5 of their 6 league games against teams that are a combined 11-33 in league play…

They have 2 great wins over Alabama & Ole Miss but also got waxed by every other good team they’ve played so far…

What are we scared of?
Click to expand...
It is not really about being scared of anything. I believe everybody knows that Illinois is capable of beating nearly any team out there, including every team in the B1G. Illinois has also quietly built a very good resume to get a decent seed in the tournament. The fact remains, however, that the Illini have that Quad 2 home loss that has the potential of becoming a Quad 3 loss, in addition to two squandered Quad 1 win opportunities in December (@NW and Tennessee). To be clear, I love the resume that the Illini are putting together (and might be the best in the B1G when all is said and done), but if we truly care about winning the B1G regular season title, I would much rather be in the position of either of those Michigan schools.

At this point, it is pretty clear that Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon (with all those Quad 1 wins), and Illinois are pretty close to each other in bracket positioning. The good news is that there is still 2/3 of the B1G season to separate from the pack.
 
#52      
SkyysNotFalling
Illini2010-11 said:
It is not really about being scared of anything. I believe everybody knows that Illinois is capable of beating nearly any team out there, including every team in the B1G. Illinois has also quietly built a very good resume to get a decent seed in the tournament. The fact remains, however, that the Illini have that Quad 2 home loss that has the potential of becoming a Quad 3 loss, in addition to two squandered Quad 1 win opportunities in December (@NW and Tennessee). To be clear, I love the resume that the Illini are putting together (and might be the best in the B1G when all is said and done), but if we truly care about winning the B1G regular season title, I would much rather be in the position of either of those Michigan schools.

At this point, it is pretty clear that Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon (with all those Quad 1 wins), and Illinois are pretty close to each other in bracket positioning. The good news is that there is still 2/3 of the B1G season to separate from the pack.
Click to expand...
I’m just not ready to jump fully on the Michigan schools based on who they’ve played. Neither of them have beaten a top half team in this league, and neither did a thing in the nonconference. I think it’ll be reality check time for the Spartans come Sunday. They haven’t seen anything close to us yet.
 
#53      
the juiceman cometh
Was messing around with Torvik's Teamcast tool. Our three toughest games are this weekend's game against MSU, Duke on 2/22, and Michigan away on 3/2. For whatever it's worth, Teamcast projects us as a #1 seed if we win 1/3 of those games, and then win every other game on the schedule (I did not include the BTT). If we were to win all three of those tough matchups, we could go ahead and lose 3 other games and get a 1-seed, including against Minnesota, far and away our easiest remaining opponent (according to Teamcast). Obviously, take all that with a huge grain of salt, but it's a fun tool to mess around with.
 
#54      
jumpingjack
the juiceman cometh said:
Was messing around with Torvik's Teamcast tool. Our three toughest games are this weekend's game against MSU, Duke on 2/22, and Michigan away on 3/2. For whatever it's worth, Teamcast projects us as a #1 seed if we win 1/3 of those games, and then win every other game on the schedule (I did not include the BTT). If we were to win all three of those tough matchups, we could go ahead and lose 3 other games and get a 1-seed, including against Minnesota, far and away our easiest remaining opponent (according to Teamcast). Obviously, take all that with a huge grain of salt, but it's a fun tool to mess around with.
Click to expand...
Han Solo Ok GIF
 
#55      
mysterio2525
the juiceman cometh said:
Was messing around with Torvik's Teamcast tool. Our three toughest games are this weekend's game against MSU, Duke on 2/22, and Michigan away on 3/2. For whatever it's worth, Teamcast projects us as a #1 seed if we win 1/3 of those games, and then win every other game on the schedule (I did not include the BTT). If we were to win all three of those tough matchups, we could go ahead and lose 3 other games and get a 1-seed, including against Minnesota, far and away our easiest remaining opponent (according to Teamcast). Obviously, take all that with a huge grain of salt, but it's a fun tool to mess around with.
Click to expand...
We go 2-1! If only the msu game wasn't in the morning.
 
#56      
Illini2010-11
SkyysNotFalling said:
I’m just not ready to jump fully on the Michigan schools based on who they’ve played. Neither of them have beaten a top half team in this league, and neither did a thing in the nonconference. I think it’ll be reality check time for the Spartans come Sunday. They haven’t seen anything close to us yet.
Click to expand...
I would caution pumping the brakes a bit. It is true that Michigan State has not beaten a top half team in the B1G yet (you can only beat who you play), but using the same type of logic, the Illini have actually lost to a bottom half team in the league already, as well as a team baked in the middle of the conference at home.

Of course, Michigan State will take on some B1G losses as conference play continues. I like the chances that Illinois has in beating Michigan State, but I have more confidence in the return matchup in Champaign in mid-Feb. It is very difficult to win on the road in the B1G. The Illini do have two very dominant road wins in 2025, but that is far from the norm in the league. I expect a crazed environment Sunday and the largest road test yet (both Oregon and IU had rather lackluster fan engagement). I am optimistic of where the Illini will end the season, regardless of the outcome at Breslin on Sunday (I do believe that the Illini have a great chance to pull off the road upset and have the more talented team).
 
Last edited:
#58      
SkyysNotFalling
Illini2010-11 said:
I would caution pumping the brakes a bit. It is true that Michigan State has not beaten a top half team in the B1G yet (you can only beat who you play), but using the same type of logic, the Illini have actually lost to a bottom half team in the league already, as well as a team baked in the middle of the conference at home.

Of course, Michigan State will take on some B1G losses as conference play continues. I like the chances that Illinois has in beating Michigan State, but I have more confidence in the return matchup in Champaign in mid-Feb. It is very difficult to win on the road in the B1G. The Illini do have two very dominant road wins in 2025, but that is far from the norm in the league. I expect a crazed environment Sunday and the largest road test yet (both Oregon and IU had rather lackluster fan engagement). I am optimistic of where the Illini will end the season, regardless of the outcome at Breslin on Sunday (I do believe that the Illini have a great chance to pull off the road upset and have the more talented team).
Click to expand...
Illini by 30.
 
#59      
Chad Fleck
Illini2010-11 said:
I would caution pumping the brakes a bit. It is true that Michigan State has not beaten a top half team in the B1G yet (you can only beat who you play), but using the same type of logic, the Illini have actually lost to a bottom half team in the league already, as well as a team baked in the middle of the conference at home.

Of course, Michigan State will take on some B1G losses as conference play continues. I like the chances that Illinois has in beating Michigan State, but I have more confidence in the return matchup in Champaign in mid-Feb. It is very difficult to win on the road in the B1G. The Illini do have two very dominant road wins in 2025, but that is far from the norm in the league. I expect a crazed environment Sunday and the largest road test yet (both Oregon and IU had rather lackluster fan engagement). I am optimistic of where the Illini will end the season, regardless of the outcome at Breslin on Sunday (I do believe that the Illini have a great chance to pull off the road upset and have the more talented team).
Click to expand...
The Underwood era has me increasingly thinking it's better to be on the road, or at least equal, than home. His teams' have been great on the road.
 
#60      
FreshlySqueezed
Our nonconference resume is pretty weak too. Arkansas is winless in the SEC. I'm not sure there's all that much difference between our win over Mizzou and MSU's win over UNC.

Kansas, despite their struggles, has very similar metrics to us, so they have seen something "close to us".

I'm also not sure what your definition of "top half team in this league" is but Michigan won in Madison and beat Iowa and USC (who are both tied for 8th in the conference at 3-3). MSU managed to win at Northwestern - something we failed to do.

I don't really understand the point in running down other good teams in our conference.
 
#61      
Illini2010-11
Chad Fleck said:
The Underwood era has me increasingly thinking it's better to be on the road, or at least equal, than home. His teams' have been great on the road.
Click to expand...
Sure the Illini have been great on the road under Brad's leadership, but this is a slightly exaggerated.

In Underwood's last five seasons (ignoring the first two seasons of rebuild where Illini went 1-8 on the road in conference play), the Illini have gone 8-2 in home conference games each season (including the inconsistent 22-23 campaign). The Illini have been fantastic on the road as well during that stretch (relative to other programs), but have averaged around 4 conference road losses each season (including last season).

It is much better to be playing the games at home. I think we as fans tend to remember the stinkers at home much more than the road losses, and the unexpected road wins stays in our minds longer than those won at home. I still think the Illini can and will win on Sunday, but the probability of winning is much greater in Champaign.
 
#63      
Illinicpa14
Illini2010-11 said:
I would caution pumping the brakes a bit. It is true that Michigan State has not beaten a top half team in the B1G yet (you can only beat who you play), but using the same type of logic, the Illini have actually lost to a bottom half team in the league already, as well as a team baked in the middle of the conference at home.

Of course, Michigan State will take on some B1G losses as conference play continues. I like the chances that Illinois has in beating Michigan State, but I have more confidence in the return matchup in Champaign in mid-Feb. It is very difficult to win on the road in the B1G. The Illini do have two very dominant road wins in 2025, but that is far from the norm in the league. I expect a crazed environment Sunday and the largest road test yet (both Oregon and IU had rather lackluster fan engagement). I am optimistic of where the Illini will end the season, regardless of the outcome at Breslin on Sunday (I do believe that the Illini have a great chance to pull off the road upset and have the more talented team).
Click to expand...
The way Illinois came out is what drove that crowd at IU - if IU had came out with a 5-10 point lead, it would have been loud.
 
#64      
Chad Fleck
Illini2010-11 said:
Sure the Illini have been great on the road under Brad's leadership, but this is a slightly exaggerated.

In Underwood's last five seasons (ignoring the first two seasons of rebuild where Illini went 1-8 on the road in conference play), the Illini have gone 8-2 in home conference games each season (including the inconsistent 22-23 campaign). The Illini have been fantastic on the road as well during that stretch (relative to other programs), but have averaged around 4 conference road losses each season (including last season).

It is much better to be playing the games at home. I think we as fans tend to remember the stinkers at home much more than the road losses, and the unexpected road wins stays in our minds longer than those won at home. I still think the Illini can and will win on Sunday, but the probability of winning is much greater in Champaign.
Click to expand...
I looked at the numbers and understand that it doesn't back up my feeling. But alas, I still feel that way.
 
#65      
battle
re: have been great on the road under Brad's leadership, but this is a slightly exaggerated & still feels that way
I think it is relative to strength of fan expectation. We confidently expect to win at home, but not as confident at the top BIG10 teams. I expect to win Sun but its going to be a tough game. I expected a double digit win against USC. I thought we had a good chance at Oregon ...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back