Week of 1/20 Bracketology

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#4      
fuggles
SescIllini said:
We will be a 4-6th seed nobody wants to play.

Need to go on a run to finish as a higher seed, possibly winning the BIG
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of those 6 would be ideal. I don't like 4-5. Of course 1 or 2 are best if available.
 
#11      
danielb927
Might end up like the Houston team we lost to in 2022. Top 5 in the metrics but a 5 seed. That team only went something like 2-4 in Q1 though, we'll have a lot more Q1 games on our Team Sheet than they did on Selection Sunday (win or lose).
 
#12      
Illini 993
I have decided that I am not particularly concerned what seed the Illini get. There is no 2024 UConn to fear. If this team comes to play, I do not see another team that I would worry about playing. How well we play is the whole key - we could beat any team in the nation playing well, and we could get upset if we lay an egg like at NWU.
 
#13      
PizzaHutParkingLot
Illini 993 said:
I have decided that I am not particularly concerned what seed the Illini get. There is no 2024 UConn to fear. If this team comes to play, I do not see another team that I would worry about playing. How well we play is the whole key - we could beat any team in the nation playing well, and we could get upset if we lay an egg like at NWU.
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Not a fan of Bruce Pearl like everyone else, but I’d prefer not to be in the same region as Auburn (with a healthy Johni Broome)..
 
#14      
SkyysNotFalling
6 seed?? I think at the very worst we will end up a 5. A 3 is very much in play. 2 might be difficult but given our next stretch of games.. 7-1 or 8-0 puts us squarely in the 2/3 line.. remember, teams in front of us will start falling as their schedules get tougher I.e. MSU, Purdue…. Let’s keep it rolling. We have a realistic shot of winning out until we face Duke in the garden, would be difficult.. but we got a shot in all those games and favored likely in all of them.
 
#15      
Bigtex
the juiceman cometh said:
Even a 1 seed is still in play (though pretty unlikely). If we can win the next 7, then we will go into our last stretch of 5 games, of which 4 are ranked opponents, with an opportunity to snatch a 2 or 3 seed (or perhaps even a 1).
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Not confident this young team can elevate for 7 straight wins. IMO Illinois will be 4-5 seed come March
 
#16      
Illinialldayeveryday
Consensus seems to be a 4/5 seed today. Just need to stack some wins here. There is also a chance we played 2 number 1 seeds when its all said and done between duke, Tennessee, and Alabama.
 
#20      
Oracle21
I don’t think seeding matters much this year. There aren’t any dominant #1s.

TN was #1 for awhile and lost by 30 to Florida and to Vanderbilt.

Auburn is good but they’ve won 5 games by 5 or fewer points.

Duke has the most talent.
Iowa State just lost to West Virginia
Alabama probably had the next most talent.

Whether you are seeded #1 or #4, I don’t think it matters other than it’s easier to get to a Sweet 16.
 
#21      
Illini 993
PizzaHutParkingLot said:
Not a fan of Bruce Pearl like everyone else, but I’d prefer not to be in the same region as Auburn (with a healthy Johni Broome)..
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I agree with you that Auburn is the best team I have seen this year, and would prefer not playing them the first weekend. I just don't see them (yet) as dominant as UConn was last year. If they run the table in the SEC, or close to it, then I would probably change my mind. I want to see them play more games in the SEC grinder before I see them as the consensus pick to go all the way. If I squint, I can see us playing for a national championship. To do that, you have to beat whoever you play, and karma should be on our side playing against Satan Pearl.
 
#22      
jrichisamazing
I'm actually really interested to see how the committee handles Duke. With the ACC being so weak this year, their schedule is almost Gonzaga-esque. They have 4 Q1 wins now, but they only have 3 more Q1 games remaining. With how tough the SEC, B1G, and Big12 are.... there are going to be a good chunk of teams with more Q1 wins.

If they completely run through their schedule as expected, then obviously they are a 1 seed. But if they drop a game or 2, does the committee punish them? And how much?
 
#23      
OrangeBlue98
PizzaHutParkingLot said:
Not a fan of Bruce Pearl like everyone else, but I’d prefer not to be in the same region as Auburn (with a healthy Johni Broome)..
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I just don't understand why so many are scared of Auburn. Yes, a really good team. But remember that the NCAA tournament is not called like conference games in the Big Ten or even the SEC. The one game that Auburn couldn't turn into a rock fight (Duke), they got beat.

They are no different than any of the other 10-12 teams that have a very good chance to be playing in the Final Four.
 
#24      
Fighter of the Nightman
Rephrased Illini results and upcoming games using the NET Rankings from today. As noted below, Illinois is #8.

QUAD 1 - #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
L 64-66 vs. #4 Tennessee
L 87-100 vs. #7 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
L 78-80 at #16 Michigan State
W 86-80 vs. #21 Wisconsin
W 109-77 at #22 Oregon
W 80-77 vs. #23 Missouri
L 66-70 in OT at #51 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #61 Indiana

vs. #2 Duke (New York, NY)
vs. #10 Purdue
at #12 Michigan
vs. #16 Michigan State
at #21 Wisconsin
vs. #24 Maryland
at #49 Nebraska

QUAD 2 - #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
W 91-52 vs. #47 Penn State
W 90-77 vs. #56 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
W 81-77 at #93 Washington

vs. #34 UCLA
vs. #35 Ohio State
vs. #51 Northwestern
vs. #54 Iowa
at #84 Rutgers
at #121 Minnesota

QUAD 3 - #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #135-240 Away
L 72-82 vs. #76 USC ... ALMOST Quad 2, go Trojans!!

QUAD 4 - #161-364 Home, #201-364 Neutral, #241-364 Away
W 66-54 vs. #197 Oakland
W 92-34 vs. #221 Little Rock
W 90-58 vs. #235 SIU Edwardsville
W 112-67 vs. #340 Eastern Illinois
W 117-64 vs. #356 Chicago State
W 87-40 vs. #361 Maryland Eastern Shore

So, EVERY single one of our remaining 14 games is at least a Quad 2 game, with half of them being Quad 1 ... this team has MORE than enough games in front of it to play itself into a VERY good seed. As noted above, if USC could just right the ship and stay inside of the top 75, it would be REALLY nice to get that Quad 3 loss off of our resume, lol. A Quad 2 loss while KJ was out simply won't hurt us at all, period ... but I think Quad 3 is Quad 3. I also remain nervous about Rutgers. That team has a lot of talent, the RAC is a tough place to play and they seem to finally be figuring it out ... and yet they remain 9 spots outside of that Quad 1 designation. I would really like the game in Jersey to be Quad 1 when it's all said and done!

P.S. MAN, do I want that Duke win. Given the setting, the national stage and the fact that Duke (being in the ACC) is almost certain to remain top 5 in the NET Rankings all year ... it would be just such a monumental win. If our guys can pick just one more game to have an Oregon-esque performance where everything is clicking, please let it be at MSG!

P.P.S. While people prognosticate our seed floor/ceiling, let's remember that last year's #3 seed team (which finished #13 in the NET Rankings) never had that "blockbuster" win. We lost close games to #3 Purdue, #7 Tennessee and #14 Marquette, and the highest ranked team we beat all year was #21 Wisconsin ... ironically the same as this year! The point is, that team got a great seed by just stacking wins that eventually turned into Quad 1 and Quad 2 results. For reference, that team had 8 Quad 1 wins and 6 Quad 2 wins on Selection Sunday ... this year's team already has 4 Quad 1 wins and 3 Quad 2 wins with 14 total opportunities (7 of each) left. There is more than enough time and more than enough games to easily be in contention for a #2 seed.
 
#25      
FreshlySqueezed
Illini 993 said:
I agree with you that Auburn is the best team I have seen this year, and would prefer not playing them the first weekend. I just don't see them (yet) as dominant as UConn was last year. If they run the table in the SEC, or close to it, then I would probably change my mind. I want to see them play more games in the SEC grinder before I see them as the consensus pick to go all the way. If I squint, I can see us playing for a national championship. To do that, you have to beat whoever you play, and karma should be on our side playing against Satan Pearl.
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By January 21st last year, UConn had lost to Kansas and to Seton Hall by 15. You want to see Auburn play more SEC games? Because games against Houston, Duke, Iowa State, Purdue, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina aren't enough? They've played the 2nd hardest schedule in the country, behind only Alabama.

Auburn and Duke both have Adj. EM over 36, which as others on here have pointed out, is crazy good... like top 10-15 all time good. Of course things will shift a bit, but Auburn is playing on another level this year, when healthy. It doesn't mean we can't beat Auburn, but I'd rather not have to play them in Sweet Sixteen.
 
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