Week of 1/20 Bracketology

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#52      
I'll be the VERY first to say that last night's loss was concerning for way more reasons than the result alone. Everything from the lack of fight to the sloppiness to the failure at BASIC execution like layups and in-bounds plays was nothing short of alarming ... 2019-level bad. However, since this is a Bracketology thread, I will try to remain positive and point out that even home losses to Maryland and USC aren't resume-killers. They're concerning because of what they indicate about this team going forward, but the hole we have dug is not a death sentence. As of today, we have the following resume, with Quad results/upcoming games below:

13-6 record
#9 NET Ranking
4-5 vs. Quad 1
3-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4

QUAD 1
L 64-66 vs. #4 Tennessee
L 87-100 vs. #7 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
L 78-80 at #16 Michigan State
L 71-90 vs. #20 Maryland

W 86-80 vs. #22 Wisconsin
W 109-77 at #23 Oregon
W 80-77 vs. #27 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)

L 66-70 in OT at #46 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #65 Indiana

vs. #2 Duke (New York, NY)
vs. #12 Purdue
at #13 Michigan
vs. #16 Michigan State
at #22 Wisconsin
vs. #30 Ohio State
at #55 Nebraska

QUAD 2
W 91-52 vs. #49 Penn State
W 90-77 vs. #54 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)

L 72-82 vs. #70 USC
W 81-77 at #94 Washington

vs. #35 UCLA
vs. #46 Northwestern
vs. #63 Iowa
at #81 Rutgers
at #104 Minnesota

QUAD 3


QUAD 4

W 66-54 vs. #193 Oakland
W 92-34 vs. #219 Little Rock
W 90-58 vs. #239 SIU Edwardsville
W 112-67 vs. #344 Eastern Illinois
W 117-64 vs. #356 Chicago State
W 87-40 vs. #361 Maryland Eastern Shore


So speaking STRICTLY from a NET perspective, there are no potential bad losses left on the schedule, and we also don't have one yet ... of course, USC could easily slide out of the top 75 and become Quad 3, but I guess that's water under the bridge. While this might feel eerily like 2023 with supposed toughness problems and an identical 13-6 record at this point, we had a far worse #28 NET Ranking at this time that year, and we had half as many Quad 1 wins. This team, SOMEHOW, still has every opportunity in front of it to earn a good seed. But again ... this is strictly on paper. If we don't get our heads right, play TOGETHER and play to our potential, this is all meaningless. As always, I will maintain a fool's hope that we got the kick in the rear we needed last night, we get healthy by Sunday and we can start a MUCH needed hot streak by getting revenge on Northwestern.
 
#54      
Never too early to start looking at BTT seeding probabilities:


Roughly a 44% chance for the double bye. Would take a miracle for us to at least not get the single bye.
I enjoy seeing the work you've put in, this time and on other occasions as well -- thanks!

I am going to follow that up by being a curmudgeon for a moment (really, only for a moment?) and say: I don't think math can capture this particular squad. My view, unsupported by stats, is that regardless now of B1G record this team is going to (1) get to the B1G Tournament championship game, and maybe or maybe not win it; they will also go on to (2) get a win or two in the NCAA tournament.

OR!

This team and its fiery leader (HC Underwood) will in the nick of time get this team-thing, this toughness-thing, this championship-behavior-thing figured out, catch belated fire, and despite the absence of evidence as to their championship character, ride a fiery path to the Final Four and ... then we'll see. I am nervous as all get-out ...
 
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