Week of 1/26 Bracketology

Piotyr · Jan 28, 2026

Here's how I see the 1 seeds shaking out in March:

- Big 12 winner will get one (Arizona 75%, Houston 20%, Texas Tech 5%)
- UConn will get one because they are UConn, even though their underlying metrics are sketchy (they have the resume, but not the efficiency, but they also won 2 tournaments the past 5 years so they'll get the benefit of the doubt, especially if they're like 33-1)
- Duke will get one for winning the ACC, and the metrics are improving for them.
- B1G champion will get one if outright, or whichever of the top 4 is left playing on Selection Sunday if the regular season ends in a tie.

Despite all being very good teams, it's extremely unlikely the B1G ends up with 2 1 seeds if UConn and Duke sweep their conferences. Could get 3-4 2 seeds, though along with the 1 seed.

For those worrying about Gonzaga, the top-heavy nature of the power conferences this year all but guarantees that Gonzaga won't get a 1 seed, and might not get a 2 seed.

Mobi · Jan 28, 2026

lstewart53x3 said:
Nebraska has never won a tournament game. Wild.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015859486687146180

They more or less luck out with a very good coach.

Mobi · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
Here's how I see the 1 seeds shaking out in March:

- Big 12 winner will get one (Arizona 75%, Houston 20%, Texas Tech 5%)
- UConn will get one because they are UConn, even though their underlying metrics are sketchy (they have the resume, but not the efficiency, but they also won 2 tournaments the past 5 years so they'll get the benefit of the doubt, especially if they're like 33-1)
- Duke will get one for winning the ACC, and the metrics are improving for them.
- B1G champion will get one if outright, or whichever of the top 4 is left playing on Selection Sunday if the regular season ends in a tie.

Despite all being very good teams, it's extremely unlikely the B1G ends up with 2 1 seeds if UConn and Duke sweep their conferences. Could get 3-4 2 seeds, though along with the 1 seed.

For those worrying about Gonzaga, the top-heavy nature of the power conferences this year all but guarantees that Gonzaga won't get a 1 seed, and might not get a 2 seed.

Maybe we will be the 1seed if we win B1G championship? What happens if Nebraska wins it? I guess they will be 1 seed then.

Piotyr · Jan 28, 2026

Mobi said:
Maybe we will be the 1seed if we win B1G championship? What happens if Nebraska wins it? I guess they will be 1 seed then.

If someone wins the league outright, especially at like 18-2 in conference, I think they get it regardless of conference tournament results.

If the league ends up in a 2-3-4 way tie, then I think whoever's left on Sunday will get it.

mysterio2525 · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
Here's how I see the 1 seeds shaking out in March:

- Big 12 winner will get one (Arizona 75%, Houston 20%, Texas Tech 5%)
- UConn will get one because they are UConn, even though their underlying metrics are sketchy (they have the resume, but not the efficiency, but they also won 2 tournaments the past 5 years so they'll get the benefit of the doubt, especially if they're like 33-1)
- Duke will get one for winning the ACC, and the metrics are improving for them.
- B1G champion will get one if outright, or whichever of the top 4 is left playing on Selection Sunday if the regular season ends in a tie.

Despite all being very good teams, it's extremely unlikely the B1G ends up with 2 1 seeds if UConn and Duke sweep their conferences. Could get 3-4 2 seeds, though along with the 1 seed.

For those worrying about Gonzaga, the top-heavy nature of the power conferences this year all but guarantees that Gonzaga won't get a 1 seed, and might not get a 2 seed.

why do I think uconn gets a 2 seed, gets shipped out west in Arizona's bracket. people say that Arizona gets shafted with a tough draw. uconn fans boast about how they love getting shipped out west and it's worked out well in the past also some other stuff that is really annoying. and in the end they lose in the second round.

the juiceman cometh · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
Despite all being very good teams, it's extremely unlikely the B1G ends up with 2 1 seeds if UConn and Duke sweep their conferences. Could get 3-4 2 seeds, though along with the 1 seed.

I agree, in the instance of an actual full sweep. But I think Duke is going to drop at least one to someone. UNC, UVA, NC St are not great teams but they are tournament teams. So here's one possible scenario to flag. We end up 18-2 (Or even 19-1? Dare I dream it?) in conference including a win vs UM. UM wins the rest of their conference slate save that game, and also beats Duke In their H-2-H. Duke also loses one ACC game. At that point I think there's a strong argument for 2 B1G teams over Duke. Unlikely scenario for sure, but not impossible.

LouHenson · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
Here's how I see the 1 seeds shaking out in March:

- Big 12 winner will get one (Arizona 75%, Houston 20%, Texas Tech 5%)
- UConn will get one because they are UConn, even though their underlying metrics are sketchy (they have the resume, but not the efficiency, but they also won 2 tournaments the past 5 years so they'll get the benefit of the doubt, especially if they're like 33-1)
- Duke will get one for winning the ACC, and the metrics are improving for them.
- B1G champion will get one if outright, or whichever of the top 4 is left playing on Selection Sunday if the regular season ends in a tie.

Despite all being very good teams, it's extremely unlikely the B1G ends up with 2 1 seeds if UConn and Duke sweep their conferences. Could get 3-4 2 seeds, though along with the 1 seed.

For those worrying about Gonzaga, the top-heavy nature of the power conferences this year all but guarantees that Gonzaga won't get a 1 seed, and might not get a 2 seed.

You know to a similar (not as concrete) this is what Nebby is facing? They really did not play much of a noncon, so their tough games (albeit less of them) are in the BIG and in their case the back half of the season. Gonzaga just does it in reverse. I don’t see NEBBY getting a 1 seed without pretty much winning out from here?

LouHenson · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
If someone wins the league outright, especially at like 18-2 in conference, I think they get it regardless of conference tournament results.

If the league ends up in a 2-3-4 way tie, then I think whoever's left on Sunday will get it.

Well then the Sunday game would have relevance if it involved any two of UI, Mich, MSU, Nebby at this point? It would make the “championship game is meaningless” argument away? It would mean winner gets a 1 loser gets a 2? I agree, just wonder if they could have logistics issues with that (BYU can’t play on a Sunday and they are a 2 and the BIG 2 (looser of championship game) messes that up? For the most part I think you’re correct.

Piotyr · Jan 28, 2026

LouHenson said:
Well then the Sunday game would have relevance if it involved any two of UI, Mich, MSU, Nebby at this point? It would make the “championship game is meaningless” argument away? It would mean winner gets a 1 loser gets a 2? I agree, just wonder if they could have logistics issues with that (BYU can’t play on a Sunday and they are a 2 and the BIG 2 (looser of championship game) messes that up? For the most part I think you’re correct.

I think the committee would effectively have two brackets lined up if two of the top 4 were in the B1G championship game Sunday with effectively just names and pods swapped depending on the winner (and probably make sure BYU isn't in either to avoid that problem).

LouHenson · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
I think the committee would effectively have two brackets lined up if two of the top 4 were in the B1G championship game Sunday with effectively just names and pods swapped depending on the winner (and probably make sure BYU isn't in either to avoid that problem).

100%. Sort of cool as the game would mean something

aaeismacgychel · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
I think the committee would effectively have two brackets lined up if two of the top 4 were in the B1G championship game Sunday with effectively just names and pods swapped depending on the winner (and probably make sure BYU isn't in either to avoid that problem).

It's been confirmed multiple times that the BTT Final does not affect the bracket whatsoever. The Selection Show already has the final bracket prior to the game finishing to allow them to get everything set up. So in your scenario it wouldn't matter. Whoever the had written in as the 1seed from the B10 would stay there even if they lost to the 2 seed and that win would ultimately have given the 2 seed a better resume.

The BTT Semifinals though are interesting because there have been mixed discussions on how much those games actually affect the bracket. Some committee members have said the BTT semis along with the other conference Finals that same day don't matter much aside from if a team secures an auto bid that gets them in the field. Some have said that there may be a corner case where a win might flip a bracket line for 2 teams. But overall it should be taken that the BTT semis results have a minor if not negligible affect on the brackets.

All other BTT games though do have decently large effects. BTT 1st round games and Quarterfinal games are confirmed bubble bursters.

21ChampaignSt · Jan 28, 2026

It seems like the committee speaks out of both sides of their mouths regarding whether or not the Sunday games are taken into consideration.

Here's a quote from a couple years ago that indicates that they do try to account for the results.

“We’ll have Sundays where we have as many as 16 to 18 contingencies ready,” Tom Burnett, former Southland Conference commissioner and chair of the 2022 selection committee, told Yahoo Sports. “What happens if team A wins versus team B? And is there a team C who is impacted based on that result? You want to have it all mapped out the night before. It can’t be a snap decision based on a buzzer beater on Sunday afternoon.”

Do Sunday's conference tournament title games even matter to the NCAA tourney selection committee?

"I would tell you," says last year's selection committee chair, "it’s somewhere in between."

sports.yahoo.com

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 28, 2026

Haven't done this in a while! Here is our current resume:

------------------ Q1A = 1-15 Home, 1-25 Neutral, 1-40 Road ------------------

Record: 17-3
NET Ranking: #6
Road Record: 5-0
vs. Quad 1: 6-3
---> vs. Quad 1A: 4-3
vs. Quad 2: 2-0
---> vs. Quads 1 and 2: 8-3
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

And here are our records by Quad category. First, a reminder of the Quad classification rules:

Quad 1A: #1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
Other Quad 1: #16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
Quad 2: #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3: #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #135-240 Away
Quad 4: #161+ Home, #201+ Neutral, #241+ Away

Quad 1 | 6-3
Quad 1A | 4-3
vs. #3 Michigan
at #5 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #5 Nebraska
L 61-74 vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
at #9 Michigan State
W 88-82 at #11 Purdue
L 86-90 vs. #21 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 75-69 at #22 Iowa
W 75-62 vs. #23 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 88-80 at #37 Ohio State

Other Quad 1 | 2-0
W 81-77 vs. #17 Texas Tech
at #43 UCLA
at #51 USC
W 79-68 at #68 Northwestern

Quad 2 | 2-0
vs. #33 Indiana
vs. #42 Wisconsin
vs. #61 Washington
vs. #68 Northwestern
W 91-48 vs. #73 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 73-65 at #129 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)

Quad 3 | 2-0
W 77-67 vs. #86 Minnesota
vs. #108 Oregon
at #160 Maryland
W 89-70 vs. #160 Maryland

Quad 4 | 7-0
W 81-55 vs. #163 Rutgers
W 87-73 vs. #169 UTRGV
W 84-65 vs. #200 Colgate
W 98-58 vs. #202 LIU
W 113-70 vs. #239 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #287 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #348 Jackson State

Notes on Our Opponents' Rankings
- Keep rooting for #17 Texas Tech! Our home win vs. them becomes Quad 1A if they sneak into the top 15. That shift would give us a pretty damn good record of 5-3 in Quad 1A games!
- On that similar note, we want #21 Alabama and especially #23 Tennessee to stay in the top 25. Not a HUGE deal, but our Quad 1A record right now is very impressive, and we at least want that neutral site Tennessee win stay up there.
- I honestly haven't been impressed with #33 Indiana all year (knock on wood!), but it would be really nice if the computers could show them some love and get them in the top 30 by year's end. I am confident in our guys to beat the Hoosiers in Champaign, and it would be pretty sweet if such a result were Quad 1.
- It would also be nice if #37 Ohio State could stay in the top 40. While that will be a safe Quad 1 win no matter what, it is Quad 1A if they're #40 or higher.
- #43 UCLA is close to sneaking into the top 40 and becoming a Quad 1A opponent for our West Coast trip. #51 USC is a bit further back and unlikely to get there (IMO), but either way this trip will be for two very winnable, very important Quad 1 games.
- #160 Maryland is clinging on as a Quad 3 win at home, and it would drop to Quad 4 if they go to #161 or higher. The game in College Park will be Quad 3 no matter what, so this honestly doesn't matter much.

General Thoughts Regarding the Illini
(1) It's crazy that after the tough schedule we've played and the impressive wins we've locked up, we still have three Quad 1A opportunities that could arguably EACH be our most impressive wins yet - vs. #3 Michigan, at #5 Nebraska and at #9 Michigan State. I'm not sure just how much the Committee looks at Quad 1A vs. just Quad 1, but it would be a pretty massive statement if we could somehow win two of those three and end with a 6-4 record in Quad 1A games, and possibly 7-4 if Texas Tech finishes top 15! It just might provide us a little bit of wiggle room in other Quad 1 contests, such as at UCLA.

(2) Following that note above, the super high-profile Quad 1A matchups on the road sort of are what they are - we will be underdogs in both, and they will be super tough games. Winning them is sort of icing on the cake. However, with each new big-time win we get, I think the West Coast road trip becomes even more essential for us to sweep. In a scenario where (A) we lose in Lincoln and East Lansing, (B) we are able to knock off Michigan at home and (C) a surging #17 Texas Tech sneaks back into the top 15, we would end up with a 6-5 record in Quad 1A games. Sweeping USC and UCLA would bring our total Quad 1 record to 9-5, and that would be good for a really good seed on Selection Sunday when you take into account how many great wins we have.

(3) I know we are all dreaming bigger now, but we only have two opportunities left to TRULY put objectively really bad losses on our resumes - vs. #108 Oregon and at #160 Maryland. Avoid slipping up in those two games, and we officially end the year with zero bad losses.

(4) I have confidence in these guys to come ready to play for our big-time Quad 1 opportunities, and I think (knock on wood!) that we will be able to simply out-talent Oregon at home and Maryland on the road ... so right there, you avoid all bad losses and hopefully score even more huge wins. The "crux" of this season to stay in the conversation for an elite seed, then, will be to simply not allow any letdowns in the stretch of Quad 2 home games - vs. #33 Indiana, vs. #42 Wisconsin, vs. #61 Washington and vs. #68 Northwestern. Simply put, for a team of our talent and accomplishments thus far, these games represent nothing but opportunities for disappointment. Wins here won't be show-stopper, resume-defining victories on Selection Sunday, but anything less than a 4-0 record in these games removes our margin for error, IMO. SWEEP THESE GAMES.

(5) Lastly, I just thought it would be interesting to point out our opponents during this current 9-game winning streak compared to our next 8 games that precede the Michigan home game...

Current 9-Game Winning Streak
Q2 - vs. #73 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
--- 6 days rest ---
Q4 - vs. #287 Southern
--- 3 days rest ---
Q2 - at #129 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
--- 4 days rest ---
Q4 - vs. #163 Rutgers
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #22 Iowa
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1 - at #68 Northwestern
--- 2 days rest ---
Q3 - vs. #86 Minnesota
--- 3 days rest ---
Q3 - vs. #160 Maryland
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #11 Purdue

Next 8 Games Before Michigan
Q2 - vs. #61 Washington
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #5 Nebraska
--- 2 days rest
Q2 - vs. #68 Northwestern
--- 2 days rest
Q1A - at #9 Michigan State
--- 2 days rest
Q2 - vs. #42 Wisconsin
--- 4 days rest
Q2 - vs. #33 Indiana
--- 2 days rest
Q1 - at #51 USC
--- 2 days rest
Q1 - at #43 UCLA
--- 5 days rest

So while the beginning of our winning streak looked comparatively easy, the stretch of Iowa to Purdue (where we have played some of our best basketball, including two games without Kylan!) have probably prepared us very well for what's to come. With that said, we are replacing our "break" games of Quad 4 Rutgers and Quad 3 Maryland at home with much tougher Quad 2 home matchups vs. the likes of Indiana, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Washington ... we simply will not have as much cushion for these home games in between huge road matchups that can be emotionally and physically draining.

It's hard to think this way when we are all dreaming of a #1 seed path through Chicago still being on the table, but realistically we should be very proud of these guys if they can make it through the next 8 games with a 6-2 record. That gets us to 23-5, and at that point we STILL might control our own destiny for a #1 seed if we can take down Michigan in Champaign, finish the last two Oregon/Maryland games 2-0 and win at least one in the BTT ... that would get us to 27-5 when the Committee is possibly done looking at resumes, and a 5-loss team in this year's Big Ten and with our wins/metrics is absolutely at least putting itself in the conversation for a #1 seed. I think that is a good illustration of just how massive that win at Purdue was. Of course, if we are able to do all of that AND steal one of the Nebraska/MSU road games?? Damn, look out!!

Piotyr · Jan 28, 2026

aaeismacgychel said:
It's been confirmed multiple times that the BTT Final does not affect the bracket whatsoever. The Selection Show already has the final bracket prior to the game finishing to allow them to get everything set up. So in your scenario it wouldn't matter. Whoever the had written in as the 1seed from the B10 would stay there even if they lost to the 2 seed and that win would ultimately have given the 2 seed a better resume.

That simply isn't true, particularly in cases where the lower on Sunday's game wouldn't make the bracket. I know this for a fact because the exact thing happened to Illinois in 2008. Other conference championships have played out this way more recently too, notably when St. Louis won the A10 in 2019 and got a 13 seed.

Having two brackets at the ready with effectively a team swap pending a result is definitely something the committee has done before, and would be very easy to set up in the case where one team is a 1 seed in a bracket and the other is a 2 seed.

RML · Jan 28, 2026

Does the committee really ask teams which pod they want? I did not know that.

And I could definitely imagine a situation where some team with two similarly favorable options might factor in how their choice might keep a perceived rival out of a venue that's exceptionally favorable to that rival.

aaeismacgychel · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
That simply isn't true, particularly in cases where the lower on Sunday's game wouldn't make the bracket. I know this for a fact because the exact thing happened to Illinois in 2008. Other conference championships have played out this way more recently too, notably when St. Louis won the A10 in 2019 and got a 13 seed.

Having two brackets at the ready with effectively a team swap pending a result is definitely something the committee has done before, and would be very easy to set up in the case where one team is a 1 seed in a bracket and the other is a 2 seed.

I said that in my post in the 2nd paragraph. The only alternate bracket there is on Sunday is specifically if a team clinches an autobid. And in that one they do have a swap where their last team in gets swapped with the autobid and becomes first team out. And it is even questioned how much Saturday's finals in other conferences even affect the brackets as there are conflicting reports outside of if a team out of the bracket wins an autobid.

Outside of the autobid, there is confirmed no alternate bracket made for swapping teams on Sunday. I know it seems like an easy thing to do and have but it really isn't. If you think about it from a logistics perspective, selection show starts right after the final whistle of the B10 Championship. Ensuring the correct bracket is sent and all graphics are ready takes time. Last thing they'd want is an accidental screwup of a wrong bracket being sent.

Again, I know it seems like there should be contingencies and the BTT Finale should affect seeding, but it is 100% confirmed it does not aside for that single contingency of a team outside the bracket winning an autobid.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 28, 2026

Piotyr said:
That simply isn't true, particularly in cases where the lower on Sunday's game wouldn't make the bracket. I know this for a fact because the exact thing happened to Illinois in 2008. Other conference championships have played out this way more recently too, notably when St. Louis won the A10 in 2019 and got a 13 seed.

Having two brackets at the ready with effectively a team swap pending a result is definitely something the committee has done before, and would be very easy to set up in the case where one team is a 1 seed in a bracket and the other is a 2 seed.

I'm pretty much just making an educated guess here, but my impression is that the following are both true:

(1) The Committee clearly can't just ignore Sunday results entirely for the reasons you stated. The obvious example is a team like 2008 Illinois, where maybe they have one bracket that assumes we lose and another where we get to slide into the spot of the worst #13 seed or something like that if we win. However, it might go beyond simple things like that, as a certain team winning on Sunday might cause more trickle-down effects where other parts of the bracket need adjusting.

(2) Given how complicated the seeding process can be and the timing of the Selection Show, it is also very likely that 90%+ of the bracket is pretty much set in stone by some time on Saturday. They can have contingency plans, but they can't be blowing up their work on Sunday morning, let alone Sunday afternoon, if they want to be ready for the reveal.

So, how much a Saturday and especially a Sunday BTT result "matters" would simply come down to what team they are reviewing, IMO. However, what I think is absolutely beyond debate is that the BTT results for Friday and before 100% matter just as much as any other game on the schedule. While I can't prove this, I guarantee you that our #4 seed teams in 2006 and 2022 at least played themselves out of the conversation for a #3 seed by losing their first BTT games. And I would bet both get past the Second Round if they are #3 seeds instead of #4 seeds, and we'd have two more Sweet Sixteen (at least!) appearances. I would also guess there are fewer "set-in-stone" teams as you go down the seed line. It seems to me it's way more likely they would have decided on all four #1 seeds by Saturday morning than exactly how the #3-5 seeds will be ranked.

Illwinsagain · Jan 28, 2026

I have a fuzzy memory that there was a time, many years ago, when we played Wisconsin in the final. Winner got a #3 and loser got the #4. Wisco won.

Edit, I thought it might be 2004, we were a 5, they were a 6. But we went to OH and played Cincy and they got Milwaukee. So, I guess I was wrong.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 28, 2026

Illwinsagain said:
I have a fuzzy memory that there was a time, many years ago, when we played Wisconsin in the final. Winner got a #3 and loser got the #4. Wisco won.

Well it wasn't that many years ago or anything, but we obviously beat Wisconsin in the 2024 BTT Championship, and we ended up with a #3 seed and they ended up with a #5 seed. Needless to say this doesn't follow your example since we won, but it was sort of a similar seed movement.

We lost to Wisconsin in the 2004 BTT Championship, but we actually still ended up with a higher seed (#5) in the NCAA Tournament than they did (#6). We also lost to Wisconsin in the 2008 BTT Championship, but we had no hope of reaching the NCAA Tournament (finished 16-19 that year), and Wisconsin was already a shoe-in.

My last guess of what you could be remembering was in 2000. We lost to Michigan State (not Wisconsin) in the BTT Championship, and we did end up getting a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, MSU got a #1 seed (rather than a #3 seed), eventually cutting down the nets.

Fly Illini Fly! · Jan 28, 2026

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Haven't done this in a while! Here is our current resume:

------------------ Q1A = 1-15 Home, 1-25 Neutral, 1-40 Road ------------------

Record: 17-3
NET Ranking: #6
Road Record: 5-0
vs. Quad 1: 6-3
---> vs. Quad 1A: 4-3
vs. Quad 2: 2-0
---> vs. Quads 1 and 2: 8-3
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

And here are our records by Quad category. First, a reminder of the Quad classification rules:

Quad 1A: #1-15 Home, #1-25 Neutral, #1-40 Away
Other Quad 1: #16-30 Home, #26-50 Neutral, #41-75 Away
Quad 2: #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3: #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #135-240 Away
Quad 4: #161+ Home, #201+ Neutral, #241+ Away

Quad 1 | 6-3
Quad 1A | 4-3
vs. #3 Michigan
at #5 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #5 Nebraska
L 61-74 vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
at #9 Michigan State
W 88-82 at #11 Purdue
L 86-90 vs. #21 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 75-69 at #22 Iowa
W 75-62 vs. #23 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 88-80 at #37 Ohio State

Other Quad 1 | 2-0
W 81-77 vs. #17 Texas Tech
at #43 UCLA
at #51 USC
W 79-68 at #68 Northwestern

Quad 2 | 2-0
vs. #33 Indiana
vs. #42 Wisconsin
vs. #61 Washington
vs. #68 Northwestern
W 91-48 vs. #73 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 73-65 at #129 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)

Quad 3 | 2-0
W 77-67 vs. #86 Minnesota
vs. #108 Oregon
at #160 Maryland
W 89-70 vs. #160 Maryland

Quad 4 | 7-0
W 81-55 vs. #163 Rutgers
W 87-73 vs. #169 UTRGV
W 84-65 vs. #200 Colgate
W 98-58 vs. #202 LIU
W 113-70 vs. #239 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #287 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #348 Jackson State

Notes on Our Opponents' Rankings
- Keep rooting for #17 Texas Tech! Our home win vs. them becomes Quad 1A if they sneak into the top 15. That shift would give us a pretty damn good record of 5-3 in Quad 1A games!
- On that similar note, we want #21 Alabama and especially #23 Tennessee to stay in the top 25. Not a HUGE deal, but our Quad 1A record right now is very impressive, and we at least want that neutral site Tennessee win stay up there.
- I honestly haven't been impressed with #33 Indiana all year (knock on wood!), but it would be really nice if the computers could show them some love and get them in the top 30 by year's end. I am confident in our guys to beat the Hoosiers in Champaign, and it would be pretty sweet if such a result were Quad 1.
- It would also be nice if #37 Ohio State could stay in the top 40. While that will be a safe Quad 1 win no matter what, it is Quad 1A if they're #40 or higher.
- #43 UCLA is close to sneaking into the top 40 and becoming a Quad 1A opponent for our West Coast trip. #51 USC is a bit further back and unlikely to get there (IMO), but either way this trip will be for two very winnable, very important Quad 1 games.
- #160 Maryland is clinging on as a Quad 3 win at home, and it would drop to Quad 4 if they go to #161 or higher. The game in College Park will be Quad 3 no matter what, so this honestly doesn't matter much.

General Thoughts Regarding the Illini
(1) It's crazy that after the tough schedule we've played and the impressive wins we've locked up, we still have three Quad 1A opportunities that could arguably EACH be our most impressive wins yet - vs. #3 Michigan, at #5 Nebraska and at #9 Michigan State. I'm not sure just how much the Committee looks at Quad 1A vs. just Quad 1, but it would be a pretty massive statement if we could somehow win two of those three and end with a 6-4 record in Quad 1A games, and possibly 7-4 if Texas Tech finishes top 15! It just might provide us a little bit of wiggle room in other Quad 1 contests, such as at UCLA.

(2) Following that note above, the super high-profile Quad 1A matchups on the road sort of are what they are - we will be underdogs in both, and they will be super tough games. Winning them is sort of icing on the cake. However, with each new big-time win we get, I think the West Coast road trip becomes even more essential for us to sweep. In a scenario where (A) we lose in Lincoln and East Lansing, (B) we are able to knock off Michigan at home and (C) a surging #17 Texas Tech sneaks back into the top 15, we would end up with a 6-5 record in Quad 1A games. Sweeping USC and UCLA would bring our total Quad 1 record to 9-5, and that would be good for a really good seed on Selection Sunday when you take into account how many great wins we have.

(3) I know we are all dreaming bigger now, but we only have two opportunities left to TRULY put objectively really bad losses on our resumes - vs. #108 Oregon and at #160 Maryland. Avoid slipping up in those two games, and we officially end the year with zero bad losses.

(4) I have confidence in these guys to come ready to play for our big-time Quad 1 opportunities, and I think (knock on wood!) that we will be able to simply out-talent Oregon at home and Maryland on the road ... so right there, you avoid all bad losses and hopefully score even more huge wins. The "crux" of this season to stay in the conversation for an elite seed, then, will be to simply not allow any letdowns in the stretch of Quad 2 home games - vs. #33 Indiana, vs. #42 Wisconsin, vs. #61 Washington and vs. #68 Northwestern. Simply put, for a team of our talent and accomplishments thus far, these games represent nothing but opportunities for disappointment. Wins here won't be show-stopper, resume-defining victories on Selection Sunday, but anything less than a 4-0 record in these games removes our margin for error, IMO. SWEEP THESE GAMES.

(5) Lastly, I just thought it would be interesting to point out our opponents during this current 9-game winning streak compared to our next 8 games that precede the Michigan home game...

Current 9-Game Winning Streak
Q2 - vs. #73 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
--- 6 days rest ---
Q4 - vs. #287 Southern
--- 3 days rest ---
Q2 - at #129 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
--- 4 days rest ---
Q4 - vs. #163 Rutgers
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #22 Iowa
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1 - at #68 Northwestern
--- 2 days rest ---
Q3 - vs. #86 Minnesota
--- 3 days rest ---
Q3 - vs. #160 Maryland
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #11 Purdue

Next 8 Games Before Michigan
Q2 - vs. #61 Washington
--- 2 days rest ---
Q1A - at #5 Nebraska
--- 2 days rest
Q2 - vs. #68 Northwestern
--- 2 days rest
Q1A - at #9 Michigan State
--- 2 days rest
Q2 - vs. #42 Wisconsin
--- 4 days rest
Q2 - vs. #33 Indiana
--- 2 days rest
Q1 - at #51 USC
--- 2 days rest
Q1 - at #43 UCLA
--- 5 days rest

So while the beginning of our winning streak looked comparatively easy, the stretch of Iowa to Purdue (where we have played some of our best basketball, including two games without Kylan!) have probably prepared us very well for what's to come. With that said, we are replacing our "break" games of Quad 4 Rutgers and Quad 3 Maryland at home with much tougher Quad 2 home matchups vs. the likes of Indiana, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Washington ... we simply will not have as much cushion for these home games in between huge road matchups that can be emotionally and physically draining.

It's hard to think this way when we are all dreaming of a #1 seed path through Chicago still being on the table, but realistically we should be very proud of these guys if they can make it through the next 8 games with a 6-2 record. That gets us to 23-5, and at that point we STILL might control our own destiny for a #1 seed if we can take down Michigan in Champaign, finish the last two Oregon/Maryland games 2-0 and win at least one in the BTT ... that would get us to 27-5 when the Committee is possibly done looking at resumes, and a 5-loss team in this year's Big Ten and with our wins/metrics is absolutely at least putting itself in the conversation for a #1 seed. I think that is a good illustration of just how massive that win at Purdue was. Of course, if we are able to do all of that AND steal one of the Nebraska/MSU road games?? Damn, look out!!

Root for Indiana (other than against us). Want that to sneak in as a top30.

Illini2010-11 · Jan 28, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Root for Indiana (other than against us). Want that to sneak in as a top30.

As much as I would like another Q1 game...

ptgrd23 · Jan 28, 2026

We can get a #1 seed. Even after losing Ayo to injury at MSU and having Michigan refusing to play @ Illinois, we went on 14-1 run to finish season.
Lets do it again.

FreshlySqueezed · Jan 28, 2026

the juiceman cometh said:
I agree, in the instance of an actual full sweep. But I think Duke is going to drop at least one to someone. UNC, UVA, NC St are not great teams but they are tournament teams. So here's one possible scenario to flag. We end up 18-2 (Or even 19-1? Dare I dream it?) in conference including a win vs UM. UM wins the rest of their conference slate save that game, and also beats Duke In their H-2-H. Duke also loses one ACC game. At that point I think there's a strong argument for 2 B1G teams over Duke. Unlikely scenario for sure, but not impossible.

According to KenPom, the chances of Michigan doing what you said are 2.02%

The chances of Illinois doing that, with the win over Michigan guaranteed (because we already hit the probability with a loss) is 3.97%.

The probability of both occuring is 0.08%.

Even if we say the probability Duke loses a game is 1, there's a 99.92% your scenario doesn't happen.

the juiceman cometh · Jan 28, 2026

FreshlySqueezed said:
According to KenPom, the chances of Michigan doing what you said are 2.02%

The chances of Illinois doing that, with the win over Michigan guaranteed (because we already hit the probability with a loss) is 3.97%.

The probability of both occuring is 0.08%.

Even if we say the probability Duke loses a game is 1, there's a 99.92% your scenario doesn't happen.

the juiceman cometh · Jan 29, 2026

the juiceman cometh said:
With updates throughout the week I think there's a decent chance we'll sneak into the 2-line on Bracket Matrix before we play Washington, or maybe be the top 3-seed. I have a feeling we'd pass Purdue and Houston. Will also be interesting to see what happens to the loser of Nebraska/Michigan tomorrow.

Didn't see that anyone posted this but I may have missed it, but we are up to a 2-seed in Bracket Matrix.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2026