Week of 1/26 Bracketology

I think we want..

Michigan to beat MSU on Friday
Texas Tech to win @UCF Saturday
VT to upset Duke Saturday
Saint Mary’s to beat Gonzaga Saturday
Alabama to win @UF Saturday
Texas Tech to beat KU Monday

This would temporarily keep MSU from possibly jumping us, Tech very likely gets into the top 15 NET, Gonzaga’s 1 seed dreams start to fade, Duke gets their first big knock on their resume & the Alabama loss stings a little less… tall task & unlikely this all happens but we could jump all the way up to #3 overall and a 1 seed come early next week if it all happens and we go 2-0 this week…

SkyysNotFalling said:

I think we want..

Michigan to beat MSU on Friday
Texas Tech to win @UCF Saturday
VT to upset Duke Saturday
Saint Mary’s to beat Gonzaga Saturday
Alabama to win @UF Saturday
Texas Tech to beat KU Monday

This would temporarily keep MSU from possibly jumping us, Tech very likely gets into the top 15 NET, Gonzaga’s 1 seed dreams start to fade, Duke gets their first big knock on their resume & the Alabama loss stings a little less… tall task & unlikely this all happens but we could jump all the way up to #3 overall and a 1 seed come early next week if it all happens and we go 2-0 this week…

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For the Big Ten Championship, I like MSU over Michigan, because I think we have a better chance of beating MSU vs Michigan, but nothing matters if we don't beat Washington and Nebraska. If we win those two games, MSU is unlikely to jump us, even temporarily.

Bucktown said:

For the Big Ten Championship, I like MSU over Michigan, because I think we have a better chance of beating MSU vs Michigan, but nothing matters if we don't beat Washington and Nebraska. If we win those two games, MSU is unlikely to jump us, even temporarily.

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I like us to beat Michigan at home vs. Michigan State on the road.

Although these Illini are road warriors.

Fly Illini Fly! said:

Root for Indiana (other than against us). Want that to sneak in as a top30.

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Anyone who was alive and following Illini basketball when Bobby Knight was there simply cannot do this, no matter how advantageous it might be for this year's team. Don't ask us to ignore history about that era.

Truth. Indiana basketball and Michigan football. Two teams that I wouldn't feel even the slightest bit sorry for if they went 0-fer-century.

illini55 said:

Anyone who was alive and following Illini basketball when Bobby Knight was there simply cannot do this, no matter how advantageous it might be for this year's team. Don't ask us to ignore history about that era.

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Rather prefer to have a lofty tournament seed. My love for Illinois far outweighs my hatred for any program in America.

Here's my path to 10 Q1 wins. We already have six. Need four more:

Indiana, one on the west coast, Michigan, and one in the BTT.

(P.S. I've given up on Mizzou being a Q1, they're actually below Northwestern FWIW)

Say we have losses to Nebby, MSU, UCLA and one in the BTT. That would give us 7 Ls with 10 Q1 wins.

Should be enough for a 2 seed?

Maybe fans felt this way back in the early and mid-2000s, but it feels weird to be in the position of feeling (A) safely above the #4 seed line, (B) pretty safely in the #2 seed conversation for the moment and (C) still having a realistic hope of a #1 seed. It seems like most years of my Illini fandom, we have either been down in the #3/4/5 border territory (e.g., 2004, 2006, 2022, etc.) or a #1 seed was always on the table (e.g., 2001 or 2005). 2021 seemed to be a lightning fast transformation from staring at a #5/6 seed in mid-January to being a lock for a #1 seed before we even played a BTT game, haha, so that one stands out as an oddity. But a year like 2024, it seemed like a #3 seed or even a #2 seed was possible with the right luck and dropping to a #4 seed was totally on the table ... but a #1 seed never seemed remotely possible.

That was a long-winded way to say that this season sort of feels very unique as far as the last 25+ years. It is super exciting to be one of the top national players with so much opportunity in front of us as we approach February. On that point, it seems that more than in past years we will simply have to control our own destiny and keep stacking wins to get that #1 seed and guarantee a St. Louis-Chicago path; fretting about what other teams do is probably not worth it. With that said, the top 10 NET teams ("our seeding company," if you will) have the following games coming up:

#1 Arizona | 21-0
Q2 - at #85 Arizona State
Q2 - vs. #72 Oklahoma State
Q1A - at #15 Kansas
Q1 - vs. #17 Texas Tech
Q1A - vs. #14 BYU
Q1A - at #9 Houston
Q1 - at #63 Baylor

#2 Duke | 19-1
Q1 - at #54 Virginia Tech
Q3 - vs. #157 Boston College
Q1A - at #26 North Carolina
Q2 - at #118 Pitt
Q1 - vs. #29 Clemson
Q2 - vs. #80 Syracuse
Q1A - vs. #3 Michigan (Washington, DC)

#3 Michigan | 19-1
Q1A - at #10 Michigan State
Q3 - vs. #129 Penn State
Q1A - at #37 Ohio State
Q1 - at #70 Northwestern
Q2 - vs. #42 UCLA
Q1A - at #11 Purdue
Q1A - vs. #2 Duke (Washington, DC)

#4 Gonzaga | 21-1
Q1 - vs. #30 Saint Mary's
Q3 - at #222 Portland
Q3 - at #204 Oregon State
Q3 - vs. #141 Washington State
Q1 - at #44 Santa Clara
Q2 - at #100 San Francisco
Q3 - vs. #104 Pacific

#5 Illinois | 17-3
Q2 - vs. #59 Washington
Q1A - at #6 Nebraska
Q2 - vs. #70 Northwestern
Q1A - at #10 Michigan State
Q2 - vs. #43 Wisconsin
Q2 - vs. #32 Indiana
Q1 - at #48 USC

#6 Nebraska | 20-1
Q1A - vs. #5 Illinois
Q3 - at #165 Rutgers
Q1A - vs. #11 Purdue
Q2 - vs. Northwestern
Q1A - at #22 Iowa
Q3 - vs. #129 Penn State
Q3 - vs. #159 Maryland

#7 Iowa State | 18-2
Q3 - vs. #81 Colorado
Q2 - at #88 Kansas State
Q2 - vs. #63 Baylor
Q1 - at #46 TCU
Q1A - vs. #15 Kansas
Q1A - vs. #9 Houston
Q1A - at #14 BYU

#8 UConn | 20-1
Q1 - at #69 Creighton
Q3 - vs. #97 Xavier
Q1A - at #24 St. John's (NY)
Q1 - at #57 Butler
Q3 - vs. #108 Georgetown
Q2 - vs. #69 Creighton
Q1A - at #35 Villanova

#9 Houston | 18-2
Q2 - vs. #74 Cincinnati
Q2 - vs. #39 UCF
Q1A - at #14 BYU
Q2 - at #115 Utah
Q3 - vs. #88 Kansas State
Q1A - at #7 Iowa State
Q1A - vs. #1 Arizona

#10 Michigan State | 19-2
Q1 - vs. #3 Michigan
Q2 - at #83 Minnesota
Q1 - vs. #5 Illinois
Q1 - at #43 Wisconsin
Q2 - vs. #42 UCLA
Q2 - vs. #37 Ohio State
Q1A - at #11 Purdue


So, my very preliminary thoughts...

1) I don't care what anyone else says, there are only two teams to which I am "surrendering" a #1 seed - Arizona and Duke. Arizona because I just think they really are that good and Duke because they'll coast through the weak ACC and get rewarded for it, even if they pick up 1-2 losses. So going down the list at the other ones, with the obvious caveat that looking at it this way only matters if the Illini take care of their own business...

2) Michigan is a very good team and has put together a great resume. However, my "eye test" has them a clear rung below Arizona and Duke. I would not be surprised if we have the same record as Michigan after this upcoming 7-game stretch ... fingers crossed! And if we can more or less equal their resume and take them down in Champaign, I like our odds for Chicago.

3) Call me optimistic, but I think the Zags play themselves out of #1 seed contention and possibly even #2 seed contention, and this stretch of games could be where it will happen. Someone correct me if I am wrong here, but I think their SOS will be even worse than normal years this year, and I'm hopeful the Committee will give them a very short leash if they want to be in the conversation for a #1 seed. If they lose even one of those upcoming games - especially any of the Quad 3 ones - they're effectively thrown to the back of the line behind the Big Ten and Big XII contenders here, IMO.

4) Ask me again how I feel about Nebraska after our game in Lincoln. Needless to say, but if we go in there and beat them on their home floor without Boswell and presumably/hopefully extend our winning streak to 11 games, I think a 19-3 Illini team inches in front of a 20-2 Nebraska team, at least for the time being. Let's also hope Iowa has one of their games where they light it up from three and send the Huskers back home with an L...

5) I think we are already about even with Iowa State, and I just don't think they'll avoid stacking some losses over the next couple of weeks. Maybe a bit of wishful thinking, but I think their win at Purdue was their 2025-Illini-at-Oregon moment, and I think we will move past them in the seed line pretty definitively here over the next several games.

6) UConn is really tricky. You would think that they HAVE to drop one of these close Big East games eventually, and it's anyone's guess how much the Committee would penalize them for losses in a very weak conference. They still have an amazing non-conference resume and they haven't slipped up to this point in-conference, so you sort of have to assume they're a clear tier above us for the moment - especially considering the rather dominant head-to-head win. It kind of sucks that their best chances for losses are all going to be Quad 1 or Quad 1A road games, as that is unlikely to hurt them ... let's hope they just come out TOTALLY flat vs. Georgetown or something, lol.

7) Not much to say about Houston other than I think we need the Iowa State/BYU/Houston trio to cannibalize each other and let us slide in front. I'm not as worried about Texas Tech since (A) we beat them and (B) the computers seem bizarrely harsh on them.

8) I REALLY wish we got MSU at home. I have this sinking feeling that all of the talk in the Big Ten is going to be about Nebraska, Michigan and Illinois ... and MSU is just going to quietly slide past everyone to get that #1 seed in Chicago. We really need them (and the rest of the top of the league, for that matter) to start losing some of these games to teams well below us in the standings. Considering Sparty barely survived Quad 3 Rutgers in OT, I guess it's certainly possible they slip up.

All in all, it's obviously going to take a fantastic finish to the year for us to get a #1 seed, but ... isn't that always the case?? They only give four of 'em out!! However, after looking at this list, I am actually far less "doom and gloom" about how difficult it would be for us to get into that group. We really do control our own destiny, as the metrics love us, we have built a really great resume and there is more than enough opportunity ahead of us to prove beyond any doubt that we deserve it.

PleaseMakeABowlGame said:

Here's my path to 10 Q1 wins. We already have six. Need four more:

Indiana, one on the west coast, Michigan, and one in the BTT.

(P.S. I've given up on Mizzou being a Q1, they're actually below Northwestern FWIW)

Say we have losses to Nebby, MSU, UCLA and one in the BTT. That would give us 7 Ls with 10 Q1 wins.

Should be enough for a 2 seed?

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Criminal if not, right?

Only 7 losses, 10 quad 1 wins with losses to:

UConn, BAMA, NEBx2, MSU, UCLA, someone in conference tournament.

And wins against: TTU, Michigan, Tennessee, @Purdue, so on and so forth.

Ranked 5th in NET right now.

For fun, here is where the 5th ranked NET team was seeded in the last five tourneys.

Tennessee - 2 seed
Auburn - 4 seed
Purdue - 1 seed
Baylor - 1 seed
Houston - 2 seed

Auburn had a Q1 record of 3-7.

^ I would have to dig a bit deeper to feel "sure" about this, but these are my gut feelings based on our current resume and schedule and looking forward. Also, this assumes that our losses would follow a "standard" patter (i.e., no home loss to Oregon or road loss to Maryland).

- If we have single-digit losses on Selection Sunday, we are a lock for a top 3 seed.
- If we have 7 or fewer losses, we should feel really good about a #2 seed, and needless to say the lowest we would be picked is a #3.
- If we can stay at 5 or fewer losses, it will be REALLY hard to deny us a #1 seed. The average #2 seed since 2022 had 6.7 losses on Selection Sunday, with a range from 4 (St. John's last year) to 9 (2024 Marquette). The average #1 seed since 2022 had 4.5 losses, with a range from 3 (several teams) up to 7 (2023 Kansas and 2024 North Carolina). If we have have a record of like 28-5 with our schedule, our current wins, no bad losses and the wins we would still need to get to get to that record?? I just don't think anyone would slide in front of us.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

^ I would have to dig a bit deeper to feel "sure" about this, but these are my gut feelings based on our current resume and schedule and looking forward. Also, this assumes that our losses would follow a "standard" patter (i.e., no home loss to Oregon or road loss to Maryland).

- If we have single-digit losses on Selection Sunday, we are a lock for a top 3 seed.
- If we have 7 or fewer losses, we should feel really good about a #2 seed, and needless to say the lowest we would be picked is a #3.
- If we can stay at 5 or fewer losses, it will be REALLY hard to deny us a #1 seed. The average #2 seed since 2022 had 6.7 losses on Selection Sunday, with a range from 4 (St. John's last year) to 9 (2024 Marquette). The average #1 seed since 2022 had 4.5 losses, with a range from 3 (several teams) up to 7 (2023 Kansas and 2024 North Carolina). If we have have a record of like 28-5 with our schedule, our current wins, no bad losses and the wins we would still need to get to get to that record?? I just don't think anyone would slide in front of us.

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Right now, there are basically 10 teams in contention for the top 8 spots (1 and 2 seeds):



You pretty much have to assume that Arizona and Duke are a 99% lock for a 1/2 seed just based on their current Quad 1 wins.

So that leaves 8 teams for 6 spots. Each of those 8 teams have fairly similar resumes.

Gonzaga is really going to struggle to get enough Q1 wins this year. I believe they only have 3 Q1 games remaining and they’re already behind in Q1 wins compared to the other 7 teams.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

8) I REALLY wish we got MSU at home. I have this sinking feeling that all of the talk in the Big Ten is going to be about Nebraska, Michigan and Illinois ... and MSU is just going to quietly slide past everyone to get that #1 seed in Chicago. We really need them (and the rest of the top of the league, for that matter) to start losing some of these games to teams well below us in the standings. Considering Sparty barely survived Quad 3 Rutgers in OT, I guess it's certainly possible they slip up.

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Totally agree. This is what happened last year, except with a two-seed for MSU!

I never knew how good last year's MSU was until they ended the conference season 3 games ahead of any other team. With that said, they're a very similar team this year as last, with Michigan and Illinois, who have each taken a pretty good leap from last year. They also still have to go on the road to play Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan. And they have Michigan at home. If they drop 3 of those games plus a random, I think there will be at least 2 teams ahead of them for the B1G title, and hopefully we're one of them.

RollChief said:

Totally agree. This is what happened last year, except with a two-seed for MSU!

I never knew how good last year's MSU was until they ended the conference season 3 games ahead of any other team. With that said, they're a very similar team this year as last, with Michigan and Illinois, who have each taken a pretty good leap from last year. They also still have to go on the road to play Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan. And they have Michigan at home. If they drop 3 of those games plus a random, I think there will be at least 2 teams ahead of them for the B1G title, and hopefully we're one of them.

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Purdue belongs there, IMO. I don't think they're losing again at mackey.

the juiceman cometh said:

Didn't see that anyone posted this but I may have missed it, but we are up to a 2-seed in Bracket Matrix.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2026

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Despite everyone getting their panties in a bunch after the Nebraska game about this team being doomed to a poor seed and a first weekend exit, here we are a solid 2 seed at the 2/3rds mark of the season. Going to take some serious focus and luck to stay a 2 but we also still have an outside chance at a 1. (would love to take that from MI).

Not too early to be looking at B1G tourney bracket.

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=big10m

Based upon Torvik we finish in second (18-2) behind Michigan (19-1), but I don't believe those records will be that good.

lstewart53x3 said:

Right now, there are basically 10 teams in contention for the top 8 spots (1 and 2 seeds):

View attachment 46955

You pretty much have to assume that Arizona and Duke are a 99% lock for a 1/2 seed just based on their current Quad 1 wins.

So that leaves 8 teams for 6 spots. Each of those 8 teams have fairly similar resumes.

Gonzaga is really going to struggle to get enough Q1 wins this year. I believe they only have 3 Q1 games remaining and they’re already behind in Q1 wins compared to the other 7 teams.

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I think you can loop Florida, Vandy and Purdue into this group and that will account for the top 12. After those 13 teams, though, there's a significant dropoff.

lstewart53x3 said:

Right now, there are basically 10 teams in contention for the top 8 spots (1 and 2 seeds):

View attachment 46955

You pretty much have to assume that Arizona and Duke are a 99% lock for a 1/2 seed just based on their current Quad 1 wins.

So that leaves 8 teams for 6 spots. Each of those 8 teams have fairly similar resumes.

Gonzaga is really going to struggle to get enough Q1 wins this year. I believe they only have 3 Q1 games remaining and they’re already behind in Q1 wins compared to the other 7 teams.

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I don’t think any team right now is a lock for a 1 seed which you state. I just want to emphasize the term lock.

If Duke or Arizona would lose out where would they be seeded. I know this probably won’t happen but when you say lock that means no matter the outcome the seed is for sure. We are probably a few weeks out from saying anyone is a lock. With all that said they have the inside track and control their destiny

So we really could use UConn to start taking on a couple of bad losses. Let’s say Arizona and Duke get the first 2 1 seeds. Arizona goes West and Duke goes East. If UConn finishes with 3 or less losses, they are almost guaranteed a 1 seed. They’re lacking quality wins in conference play but they played a great non conference and only lost to Arizona without their starting center. Let’s say we win the B10 and finish with 5/6 losses, I’d be worried they’d send UConn to Chicago and we’d get the South regional(Houston).

Also could work the same way with Duke if UConn got the east regional, so definitely cheer for them to take on some losses as well. Not that we aren’t doing that already.

It would be interesting if the committee would still give us the Chicago regional if we got the last 1 seed and made one of those east coast teams go south.

Just win out. Wins the B1G. Wins the BTT. Gets a 1 seed in the prefered path to the FF. Simple

I thought I read somewhere that once a team is getting on a plane to leave the region, distance mostly doesn't matter. They will get the closest alternative that doesn't bump another team out of their region. Thus if the top 4 teams come from 3 different regions, expect the top team in each region to stay home and the 4th team to get the remaining region. For the 2-4 seeds, especially the 2 seeds, region balance my override someone staying home. (i.e. No putting the top 2 seed with the top 1 seed unless all the 2 seeds are really close.)

We've reached the halfway point of the B1G season (well one game short, Iowa and Maryland). Here's the updated conference efficiency margin:



Notes:
- Michigan State almost lost at Rutgers, but prior to that absolutely blew out their opponent 4 games in a row, which has created a bit of a gap between them and the other 4 teams in the top tier.
- Second tier of 5 teams still just above water, even Indiana now with the Purdue win.
- Bottom 8 has started to separate into 4 frisky but bad teams (Washington, Northwestern, USC, Minnesota), and 4 terrible teams (Oregon, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State), mostly because the medium bad teams have started to blow out the terrible teams.
- Illinois continues to lap the field offensively, while the defense holds steady at just above average. Michigan State, on the other hand, has lapped the field defensively, with Nebraska second and Michigan 3rd, so Illinois is going to have to earn it going forward.

I agree and feel the same way about Iowa after scumbag Bruce Pearl pulled his recruiting shite with Deon Thomas. May the Hawkeyes rot in hell.

RollChief said:

Totally agree. This is what happened last year, except with a two-seed for MSU!

I never knew how good last year's MSU was until they ended the conference season 3 games ahead of any other team. With that said, they're a very similar team this year as last, with Michigan and Illinois, who have each taken a pretty good leap from last year. They also still have to go on the road to play Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan. And they have Michigan at home. If they drop 3 of those games plus a random, I think there will be at least 2 teams ahead of them for the B1G title, and hopefully we're one of them.

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msu is similar to last year but just a notch below on offense without jace. kohler and fears being better makes up a lot of that overall. I was a hater of them last year but they proved it in every way. I think the big ten is just much better this season that has 4-5 of teams that good this year.

mysterio2525 said:

msu is similar to last year but just a notch below on offense without jace. kohler and fears being better makes up a lot of that overall. I was a hater of them last year but they proved it in every way. I think the big ten is just much better this season that has 4-5 of teams that good this year.

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This got me kind of interested in a comparison to the last several years RE: how good the Big Ten was from a NET perspective. We all know anything can happen in the Tournament, and the 2021 Big Ten was a massive disappointment ... however, in the spirit of appreciating the one-and-done nature of March Madness, we will treat the NET Rankings as gold for a moment. Here were the top 5 Big Ten teams in the NET Rankings on Selection Sunday since 2021, with 2026 just being the today's NET Rankings.

2026
#3 Michigan
#5 Nebraska
#7 Illinois
#9 Michigan State
#11 Purdue
---> Average = #7.0
---> 2 in top 5, 4 in top 10, all 5 in top 15

2025
#10 Maryland
#11 Michigan State
#15 Wisconsin
#17 Illinois
#19 Purdue
---> Average = #14.4
---> 0 in top 5, 1 in top 10, 3 in top 15

2024
#3 Purdue
#13 Illinois
#21 Wisconsin
#24 Michigan State
#33 Nebraska
---> Average = #18.8
---> 1 in top 5, 1 in top 10, 2 in top 15

2023
#5 Purdue
#30 Indiana
#31 Maryland
#33 Michigan State
#34 Illinois
---> Average = #26.6
---> 1 in top 5, 1 in top 10, 1 in top 15

2022
#13 Purdue
#14 Iowa
#15 Illinois
#24 Wisconsin
#26 Ohio State
---> Average = #18.4
---> 0 in top 5, 0 in top 10, 3 in top 15

2021
#3 Illinois
#4 Michigan
#6 Iowa
#8 Ohio State
#22 Purdue
---> Average = #8.6
---> 2 in top 5, 4 in top 10, 4 in top 15


And by category...

Overall Average
2026: #7.0
2021: #8.6
2025: #14.4
2022: #18.4
2024: #18.8
2023: #26.6

Teams in Top 5
2021: 2 (#3, #4)
2026: 2 (#3, #5)
2024: 1 (#3)
2023: 1 (#5)
2025: 0
2022: 0

Teams in Top 10
2021: 4 (#3, #4, #6, #8)
2026: 4 (#3, #5, #7, #9)
2024: 1 (#3)
2023: 1 (#5)
2025: 1 (#10)
2022: 0

Teams in Top 15
2026: 5 (#3, #5, #7, #9, #11)
2021: 4 (#3, #4, #6, #8, #22)
2025: 3 (#10, #11, #15)
2022: 3 (#13, #14, #15)
2024: 2 (#3, #13)
2023: 1 (#3)

It's flat-out obvious that the Big Ten is the best it has been since 2021, and you could certainly make an argument that it is better this year. The bottom of the league was certainly better in 2021, but I think the middle tier might be better this year. The top is very comparable.