Week of 1/29 Games Thread

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#526      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
Rap47 said:
If we win out and Purdue Illini tie. What is the tie break?
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For the regular season title, there are no tie breakers. Purdue and Illinois would simply be co-champions.

For BTT seeding, the tie breaker would go to the team with the better head to head record against the league's third place team. It gets confusing from here, but I think if multiple teams are tied for 3rd then it would be best record against the group of teams tied for 3rd. I'm not 100% confident with that part though.
 
#528      

Iloveorangekoolaid

Iloveorangekoolaid
Iloveorangekoolaid
21ChampaignSt said:
For the regular season title, there are no tie breakers. Purdue and Illinois would simply be co-champions.

For BTT seeding, the tie breaker would go to the team with the better head to head record against the league's third place team. It gets confusing from here, but I think if multiple teams are tied for 3rd then it would be best record against the group of teams tied for 3rd. I'm not 100% confident with that part though.
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You’re correct. I wouldn’t mind losing the tiebreak. I prefer playing night games at the BTT. But still a long ways to go. A lot can happen in a month.
 
#530      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
I’m rooting for Purdue - I just don’t see looking at their schedule enough losses assuming we don’t basically run the table in the big ten.

For the NCAA tourney - If our goal is a 2/3 seed still; there’s a first round location in Indianapolis that Purdue is going to grab. That leaves one spot potentially between us, Wisconsin and Marquette to host the other pod. That seems to be a huge advantage then going to be a 4 seed out in salt lake with other random teams in getting out of the first weekend.
 
#532      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Illinicpa14 said:
I’m rooting for Purdue - I just don’t see looking at their schedule enough losses assuming we don’t basically run the table in the big ten.

For the NCAA tourney - If our goal is a 2/3 seed still; there’s a first round location in Indianapolis that Purdue is going to grab. That leaves one spot potentially between us, Wisconsin and Marquette to host the other pod. That seems to be a huge advantage then going to be a 4 seed out in salt lake with other random teams in getting out of the first weekend.
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Feels like for Midwestern schools in particular there's a gigantic location favorability/home advantage difference between being a 3 or a 4/5.

ESPN Bracketology that just came out has us as a 4 in SLC with BYU as the 5 🤬
 
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#533      

2qtslow

2qtslow
2qtslow
ChiefGritty said:
Feels like for Midwestern schools in particular there's a gigantic location favorability/home advantage difference between being a 3 or a 4/5.

ESPN Bracketology that just came out has us as a 4 in SLC with BYU as the 5 🤬
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I often wonder if bracketologists spend much of their time trying to find those pairings that will piss off the greatest number of teams.
 
#534      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
Where does SFC rank in B1G for the toughest road games (specifically this year vs traditionally) My take:

the toughest arena
Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin,

Next toughest
Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana

50/50
Iowa, Rutgers

Weakest
Ohio state, Penn State, Minnesota and Michigan
 
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#535      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
ChiefGritty said:
Feels like for Midwestern schools in particular there's a gigantic location favorability/home advantage difference between being a 3 or a 4/5.

ESPN Bracketology that just came out has us as a 4 in SLC with BYU as the 5 🤬
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I don't disagree with the #4 seed(at this point), but they'd never have the #5 seed with that type of advantage. No different for us. Unless we're a #3, no way that they'd put us in Indianapolis.

It's so early still....take the bracketology more for an idea of where we're seeded by # vs the location. There's just not that much thought out into it.
 
#537      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
ChiefGritty said:
Feels like for Midwestern schools in particular there's a gigantic location favorability/home advantage difference between being a 3 or a 4/5.

ESPN Bracketology that just came out has us as a 4 in SLC with BYU as the 5 🤬
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I just think for us and fan base in particular - there’s a huge advantage of a 1-2 hour car ride to Indianapolis vs any other place.
 
#539      

727ill

7
727ill
Illinicpa14 said:
I’m Purdue - would rather not give Wisconsin another win in competing on the 2-4 seed line. Can they tie????
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It's going to take a collapse of epic proportions by Wisconsin for us to leapfrog them in seeding. They just have way too many Q1 wins right now.

Or we'd need to win out or something close to it. Both things are unlikely.
 
#541      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Illinicpa14 said:
I’m Purdue - would rather not give Wisconsin another win in competing on the 2-4 seed line. Can they tie????
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I'm with you. If Wisconsin beats Purdue, I think we have to beat Purdue and Wisconsin to jump Wisconsin in seeding.

Whereas if Purdue wins, all we need to do is beat Wisconsin. (and take care of business otherwise)
 
#542      

illinifan1987

illinifan1987
illinifan1987
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1753552693769990278
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30 Rock Fellow Kids GIF by Peacock
\
This dude looks like he's in his 30's
 
#544      

dmb24illini

dmb24illini
dmb24illini
Illinicpa14 said:
I’m Purdue - would rather not give Wisconsin another win in competing on the 2-4 seed line. Can they tie????
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Wrong approach, respectfully, if the goal is to win the Big Ten.

Purdue is unlikely to lose at home. Maybeeeee against Wisconsin will be challenging at home but that's basically it (unless there's a desperate Michigan State team but I don't think they can win in Mackey). They have 4 remaining road games: at Wisconsin, at Illinois, at Michigan, at Ohio State. That means that at Wisconsin and at Illinois are Purdue's two most likely losses remaining. IF they lose both of those and no others, then they end with 4 Big Ten losses. That gives Illinois a 1-game margin of error to at least tie for Big Ten Champs.

Wisconsin has looked mediocre on the road lately. I mean, they've lost to Nebraska (bubble team), Penn State (awful) and should have lost to an awful Minnesota team if the Gophers knew how to hit free throws. With two Purdue games + an Illinois home game, I think they rack up a few more losses (and potentially falter somewhere like Iowa or Indiana...again, referencing how bad they've looked lately on the road against mediocre-to-bad teams). Could see them ending with 5, maybe 6 Big Ten losses.

So I would be rooting hard for Wisconsin to pull the upset on Sunday, give Purdue another loss which will then ratchet the pressure up a lot on Purdue. We still get a shot at both of them, but Wisconsin gets two shots at Purdue. The more losses Purdue racks up, the better, since they're better on the road and nearly unbeatable at home. We're a game back of both but finishing over Purdue is definitely the bigger mountain to climb.
 
#547      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
dmb24illini said:
Wrong approach, respectfully, if the goal is to win the Big Ten.

Purdue is unlikely to lose at home. Maybeeeee against Wisconsin will be challenging at home but that's basically it (unless there's a desperate Michigan State team but I don't think they can win in Mackey). They have 4 remaining road games: at Wisconsin, at Illinois, at Michigan, at Ohio State. That means that at Wisconsin and at Illinois are Purdue's two most likely losses remaining. IF they lose both of those and no others, then they end with 4 Big Ten losses. That gives Illinois a 1-game margin of error to at least tie for Big Ten Champs.

Wisconsin has looked mediocre on the road lately. I mean, they've lost to Nebraska (bubble team), Penn State (awful) and should have lost to an awful Minnesota team if the Gophers knew how to hit free throws. With two Purdue games + an Illinois home game, I think they rack up a few more losses (and potentially falter somewhere like Iowa or Indiana...again, referencing how bad they've looked lately on the road against mediocre-to-bad teams). Could see them ending with 5, maybe 6 Big Ten losses.

So I would be rooting hard for Wisconsin to pull the upset on Sunday, give Purdue another loss which will then ratchet the pressure up a lot on Purdue. We still get a shot at both of them, but Wisconsin gets two shots at Purdue. The more losses Purdue racks up, the better, since they're better on the road and nearly unbeatable at home. We're a game back of both but finishing over Purdue is definitely the bigger mountain to climb.
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I'll be rooting for the home teams. Like I said earlier, assuming Illinois wins out, if PU and Wiscy give each other a loss, Illinois is the outright champ of the Big Ten.

*Obviously, this scenario isn't likely. But it's the most direct path to an outright title based on where we stand today. So, that's what I'll be rooting for to happen.
 
#548      

Piotyr

P
Piotyr
Updated EM after last night's game:

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Notes:
- Last night's game was actually Wisconsin's worst offensive efficiency of the conference season. Nebraska showed up for a half (and OT) and pulled something out of nothing. After Sunday's game, Nebraska is done with Purdue/Illinois/Wisconsin for the season.
- Northwestern is already done with Purdue/Illinois/Wisconsin on the season, having gone 2-3 against them.
- Michigan and Rutgers are a special level of bad, and they play each other this weekend to see who is the worst.
- Ohio State isn't far ahead of either of them right now, the three of them all serious favorites for play-in day in the BTT. Which seems crazy to me, as PSU and Minnesota looked by far like the worst teams in the B1G coming into the conference season.
- Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin are heavy favorites for a double bye in the BTT.
- It feels wild to me that we're just halfway through the B1G season, and already just 7 teams have any realistic chance of making a run for the NCAA tournament. I guess you could squint and see Iowa or IU or even Ohio State running the table and making it, but that doesn't seem overly realistic.

B1G Weekly Power Rankings:
1. Purdue - Would have to lose a couple straight to be in danger of falling here.
2. Illinois - Haven't looked awesome for a couple weeks, and still have won 4 of 5 with their only loss being an OT road loss.
3. Wisconsin - Similar OT road loss, weaker overall efficiency numbers.
4. Michigan State - There's a huge gap here between 3 and 4. MSU may not be the top 10 team we initially thought, but they're a solid 6-7 seed in the NCAA tourney that is going to make life miserable for some 2/3 seed.
5. Northwestern - Came oh-so-close to establishing themselves in the top 4, especially with their closing schedule. A safer and safer bet for a tourney spot, as long as they don't take a dive.
6. Nebraska - Huge comeback to salvage a much-needed Q1 win. Their game at Illinois Sunday will be their last game against a top 40 opponent all season.
7. Maryland - Still can't score, but they do defend better than anyone right now.
8. Iowa - Possibly the most irrelevant Iowa team I can remember. Not good, not bad, just not relevant.
9. Indiana - Another uninspiring team that's just hanging around the middle of the conference.
10. Minnesota - A bad team, but there are too many worse teams in this league to make them look too bad.
11. Penn State - How these guys are not the worst team in the league will forever remain a mystery to me.
12. Ohio State - They just look like they've given up.
13. Michigan - I'm not convinced they win another B1G game this season. We'll see this weekend.
14. Rutgers - At least Jeremiah Williams is cleared to play, and they host Michigan this weekend so maybe they can win?
 
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