100% of the Final 4 got an 11 seed or better. That is what I want - a 100% chance.
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Week of 1/5 Bracketology
- Status
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Updated Illini resume:
Record: 11-3
NET Ranking: #10
Road Record: 2-0
Neutral Record: 2-2
Home Record: 7-1
vs. Quad 1: 3-3
vs. Quad 2: 2-0
vs. Quad 3: 0-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
Results and remaining games by Quad classification:
Quad 1 | 3-3
vs. #1 Michigan
at #6 Purdue
L 61-74 vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
at #11 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #11 Nebraska
at #12 Michigan State
L 86-90 vs. #13 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
at #19 Iowa
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-62 vs. #24 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
vs. #30 Indiana
W 88-80 at #39 Ohio State
at #43 USC
at #45 UCLA
Quad 2 | 2-0
vs. #54 Wisconsin
vs. #63 Washington
at #79 Northwestern
W 91-48 vs. #82 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 73-65 at #116 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
Quad 3 | 0-0
vs. #79 Northwestern
vs. #83 Minnesota
vs. #101 Oregon
at #162 Maryland
Quad 4 | 6-0
vs. #162 Maryland
W 98-58 vs. #172 LIU
W 84-65 vs. #178 Colgate
vs. #183 Rutgers
W 87-73 vs. #185 UTRGV
W 113-70 vs. #192 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #308 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #356 Jackson State
A few notes:
- I know I am mostly being superstitious here, but it would be really nice if Maryland could get into the top 160 and at least be a Quad 4 opponent at home. That would be an utterly disastrous loss for the resume, and they have a weird voodoo curse over us.
- Root for Northwestern to sneak back into the top 75 (currently #79). Given we are tied up to have two games against them each year, it really sucks for us if they are Quad 2 on the road and Quad 3 at home.
- We clearly still have some great opportunities left, including some "show-stopper" opportunities like Michigan at home and road games at Purdue, MSU and Nebraska. Hell, even after their loss to Minnesota, a win in Iowa City this weekend would be a pretty darn big statement ... it would improve our road record to a very impressive 3-0. On that note, I see this as our path to a #3 seed or better:
With all that said, I think our path to a top 3 seed remains fairly straight forward:
1) Obviously sweep the Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. That gets us to 17-3 and zero bad losses.
2) Given how our schedule shakes out in these categories, we also need to sweep all of our remaining Quad 2 games ... especially given that two of them are at home and the other is at Northwestern, where there will be 50%+ orange in the stands. That gets us to 20-3, zero bad losses and already at 8 total Quad 1/Quad 2 wins before even taking a swing at the Quad 1 opponents.
3) I did a previous post looking at #2 seeds in previous seasons, and based off of that ... I would say it's key to have single digit losses on Selection Sunday to stay above the #4 seed line. Thus, if we are 20-3 before our remaining Quad 1 games, we should go at least 3-5 in those games, leaving room for us to pick up a loss in the BTT. Of those 8 games, we should be able to find 3 wins out of USC, UCLA and Indiana ... additional wins like at Iowa on Sunday or a revenge victory over the Huskers just give us more cushion.
4) Folks argue about how much the BTT matters, but I think it would be VERY wise to find ourselves playing on Saturday to feel great about things.
The path is there in front of us, let's go finish strong!
Record: 11-3
NET Ranking: #10
Road Record: 2-0
Neutral Record: 2-2
Home Record: 7-1
vs. Quad 1: 3-3
vs. Quad 2: 2-0
vs. Quad 3: 0-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
Results and remaining games by Quad classification:
Quad 1 | 3-3
vs. #1 Michigan
at #6 Purdue
L 61-74 vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
at #11 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #11 Nebraska
at #12 Michigan State
L 86-90 vs. #13 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
at #19 Iowa
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-62 vs. #24 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
vs. #30 Indiana
W 88-80 at #39 Ohio State
at #43 USC
at #45 UCLA
Quad 2 | 2-0
vs. #54 Wisconsin
vs. #63 Washington
at #79 Northwestern
W 91-48 vs. #82 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W 73-65 at #116 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
Quad 3 | 0-0
vs. #79 Northwestern
vs. #83 Minnesota
vs. #101 Oregon
at #162 Maryland
Quad 4 | 6-0
vs. #162 Maryland
W 98-58 vs. #172 LIU
W 84-65 vs. #178 Colgate
vs. #183 Rutgers
W 87-73 vs. #185 UTRGV
W 113-70 vs. #192 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #308 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #356 Jackson State
A few notes:
- I know I am mostly being superstitious here, but it would be really nice if Maryland could get into the top 160 and at least be a Quad 4 opponent at home. That would be an utterly disastrous loss for the resume, and they have a weird voodoo curse over us.
- Root for Northwestern to sneak back into the top 75 (currently #79). Given we are tied up to have two games against them each year, it really sucks for us if they are Quad 2 on the road and Quad 3 at home.
- We clearly still have some great opportunities left, including some "show-stopper" opportunities like Michigan at home and road games at Purdue, MSU and Nebraska. Hell, even after their loss to Minnesota, a win in Iowa City this weekend would be a pretty darn big statement ... it would improve our road record to a very impressive 3-0. On that note, I see this as our path to a #3 seed or better:
With all that said, I think our path to a top 3 seed remains fairly straight forward:
1) Obviously sweep the Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. That gets us to 17-3 and zero bad losses.
2) Given how our schedule shakes out in these categories, we also need to sweep all of our remaining Quad 2 games ... especially given that two of them are at home and the other is at Northwestern, where there will be 50%+ orange in the stands. That gets us to 20-3, zero bad losses and already at 8 total Quad 1/Quad 2 wins before even taking a swing at the Quad 1 opponents.
3) I did a previous post looking at #2 seeds in previous seasons, and based off of that ... I would say it's key to have single digit losses on Selection Sunday to stay above the #4 seed line. Thus, if we are 20-3 before our remaining Quad 1 games, we should go at least 3-5 in those games, leaving room for us to pick up a loss in the BTT. Of those 8 games, we should be able to find 3 wins out of USC, UCLA and Indiana ... additional wins like at Iowa on Sunday or a revenge victory over the Huskers just give us more cushion.
4) Folks argue about how much the BTT matters, but I think it would be VERY wise to find ourselves playing on Saturday to feel great about things.
The path is there in front of us, let's go finish strong!
Moved up from 82 to 67 in NET... if they can somehow get to 50 its another Q1 for us.
NET Rankings of their remaining schedule
away vs 104
home vs 37
away vs 46
home vs 28
home vs 61
away vs 13
home vs 83
away vs 90
away vs 48
home vs 74
home vs 6
away vs 26
home vs 23
away vs 83
away vs 61
home vs 26
Average: 50.6
They'd probably need to have a winning record the rest of the way in conf play?
If we should've learned anything from the Brad Underwood era, we should be more concerned about coaching matchups than seeding. We've always had talent to compete with anybody. His best team was a 1 seed that got completely shut down against an 8 seed with a far better x's and o's coach. Give me matchups, as long as we are a 6 seed or better.
If they go 9-9 they end the season at 19-12, so would probably depend on who they beat and lose to going forward.
The challenge with the SEC this year is that there aren't many great teams but every other team is a bubble team. They have 12 teams right now ranked between 20-70 in Kenpom. Their worst team is 70, and their top is 5. Vandy, 13. Florida, 14. Bama, and 16. Tennessee. The B1G has 5 teams that are worse than 70 and 3 that are worse than 100.
I want whatever juice Dennis Gates gave them to go on to beat Florida and UK after getting absolutely dismantled by us.
Besides the first few games in February @ Neb and @ MSU a week later, I like how this schedule lays out.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
This is a really interesting point, and it made me want to look at how many teams from each conference were in these (admittedly subjective) tiers I came up with. For the sake of this exercise, let's say that these are the categories.
Tier 1: Nationally Relevant Contenders ... Top 20 NET Ranking. Teams that can reasonably shoot to be in the Sweet Sixteen and try to get a protected seed.
Tier 2: NCAA-Worthy Teams ... #21 to #50 in the NET Rankings. They're the types who on paper would make up your First Round losses, Second Round losses and Bubble teams, once we account for all of the automatic qualifiers.
Tier 3: --- GAP --- Ignoring teams ranked #51 to #120. These teams are "bad," but they wouldn't represent terrible, resume ruining losses in most cases. I'm ignoring them just to show the "good" and "really bad" teams only from each conference.
Tier 4: Truly Bad Teams ... #121 and up. These teams are literally almost "twice removed" from NCAA Tournament consideration, and they have exceptionally bad rankings for a Power Conference team.
BIG TEN
Tier 1 | 6 Teams
#1 Michigan
#7 Purdue
#10 Illinois
#11 Nebraska
#12 Michigan State
#18 Iowa
Tier 2 | 4 Teams
#30 Indiana
#38 Ohio State
#44 UCLA
#47 USC
---> 10 total teams in Tier 1 or Tier 2
Tier 4 | 2 Teams
#164 Maryland
#181 Rutgers
BIG XII
Tier 1 | 6 Teams
#2 Arizona
#3 Iowa State
#9 BYU
#14 Houston
#17 Kansas
#20 Texas Tech
Tier 2 | 3 Teams
#34 UCF
#39 Baylor
#43 TCU
---> 10 total teams in Tier 1 or Tier 2
Tier 4 | 1 Team
#144 Utah
SEC
Tier 1 | 3 Teams
#6 Vanderbilt
#13 Alabama
#19 Florida
Tier 2 | 7 Teams
#23 Tennessee
#26 Arkansas
#28 Georgia
#35 Kentucky
#37 Auburn
#46 LSU
#48 Texas A&M
---> 10 total teams in Tier 1 or Tier 2
Tier 4 | 0 Teams
N/A
ACC
Tier 1 | 2 Teams
#4 Duke
#15 Louisville
Tier 2 | 6 Teams
#21 Virginia
#22 North Carolina
#27 SMU
#32 Clemson
#33 Miami (FL)
#36 NC State
---> 8 total teams in Tier 1 or Tier 2
Tier 4 | 2 Teams
#151 Georgia Tech
#196 Boston College
BIG EAST
Tier 1 | 1 Team
#8 UConn
Tier 2 | 5 Teams
#29 Villanova
#31 St. John's (NY)
#40 Seton Hall
#41 Creighton
#50 Butler
---> 6 total teams in Tier 1 or Tier 2
Tier 4 | 4 Teams
#123 Xavier
#125 DePaul
#136 Georgetown
#158 Marquette
So yeah, the top of the Big Ten is pretty loaded and we has as many combined Tier 1 or Tier 2 teams as anyone else (with Wisconsin barely out at #51), but the bottom of our league is uncharacteristically bad. We only have two Tier 4 teams (compared to the Big East's rather pathetic four!!), but Rutgers is the second worst team out of the Power Conferences at #181, and Maryland is the third worst at #164. The worst team in the entire SEC is Ole Miss at #104, well below the #121 cutoff. As you said, an SEC schedule might not contain as many "unwinnable" contests for a school like Mizzou as they would face in the Big Ten, but they won't get any breaks vs. a Maryland or a Rutgers, either.
For those interested, here are the rankings within each of my subjective Tiers by conference (using the color codes above).
Tier 1 | #1-20
#1 Michigan
#2 Arizona
#3 Iowa State
#4 Duke
#6 Vanderbilt
#7 Purdue
#8 UConn
#9 BYU
#10 Illinois
#11 Nebraska
#12 Michigan State
#13 Alabama
#14 Houston
#15 Louisville
#17 Kansas
#18 Iowa
#19 Florida
#20 Texas Tech
Tier 2 | #21-50
#21 Virginia
#22 North Carolina
#23 Tennessee
#26 Arkansas
#27 SMU
#28 Georgia
#29 Villanova
#30 Indiana
#31 St. John's (NY)
#32 Clemson
#33 Miami (FL)
#34 UCF
#35 Kentucky
#36 NC State
#37 Auburn
#38 Ohio State
#39 Baylor
#40 Seton Hall
#41 Creighton
#43 TCU
#44 UCLA
#46 LSU
#47 USC
#48 Texas A&M
#50 Butler
Tier 4 | #121+
#123 Xavier
#125 DePaul
#136 Georgetown
#144 Utah
#151 Georgia Tech
#158 Marquette
#164 Maryland
#181 Rutgers
#196 Boston College
Whole lotta SEC and ACC in that middle group, especially the first half of it.
Now there's a team that could invest in a good coach. I know Sean Miller isn't available anymore, but maybe they could hire the board's other favorite Underwood replacement, Chris Beard.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agreed. I have laid out our schedule by Quad category a few times in this thread, but I haven't often just looked at it chronologically ... and I kind of see it as breaking down into these sections.
Jan. 8 - vs. #181 Rutgers (Q4)
Jan. 11 - at #18 Iowa (Q1)
Jan. 14 - at #77 Northwestern (Q2)
---> Hopefully we can use Rutgers as a bit of a tune up win tonight, and then we treat this weekend at Iowa as the massive opportunity and rivalry game that it is. After what could be an emotionally draining game in Iowa City, a game in Evanston is the best we could realistically hope for regarding a subsequent road trip, with it being an easy drive and a game that will be full of Illini fans.
Jan. 17 - vs. #82 Minnesota (Q3)
Jan. 21 - vs. #164 Maryland (Q4)
Jan. 24 - at #7 Purdue (Q1)
---> While Minnesota has proven dangerous and Maryland has had our number before, this is a nice stretch of two home games we just simply should win before gearing up for another huge road test. I love that the Purdue game is at 2:00 pm on a Saturday, and I hope our guys come in loose and play like they have nothing to lose.
Jan. 29 - vs. #56 Washington (Q2)
Feb. 1 - at #11 Nebraska (Q1)
Feb. 4 - vs. #77 Northwestern (Q3)
Feb. 7 - at #12 Michigan State (Q1)
Feb. 10 - vs. #51 Wisconsin (Q2)
Feb. 15 - vs. #30 Indiana (Q1)
---> This is sort of the meat of the conference schedule, and it has two huge road tests sandwiched between three home games where we should be clear favorites. It sets up nicely to sort of go give our best punches at Nebraska for a revenge win and MSU for a resume builder, and then we get to try to rebound from any potential losses back at home in between.
Feb. 18 - at #47 USC (Q1)
Feb. 21 - at #44 UCLA (Q1)
---> The West Coast road trip sort of stands on its own, and it could be an absolutely massive stretch of games for our team. It begins after a couple home games, and after these two we get almost a week off before hosting Michigan. These are two Quad 1 opportunities where a 2-0 sweep seems very achievable based on what I have seen from both of these teams. We need both of these.
Feb. 27 - vs. #1 Michigan (Q1)
March 3 - vs. #102 Oregon (Q3)
March 8 - at #164 Maryland (Q3)
---> This is truly the home stretch, where we will have a massive opportunity vs. Michigan for a statement win, followed by two games where we will pick up the victory if we show up mentally prepared. Let's hope a top 3 seed is looking locked up by this point, but if not ... beating Michigan at home might be the tipping point!
So for my optimistic quest for a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, here is your surprisingly achievable path:
1) Go 3-0 over these next three games. Optimistic? Sure. Doable? Absolutely.
2) From January 17 to February 15, protect home court and steal ONE of the Quad 1 road opportunities out of Purdue, Nebraska and MSU.
3) Sweep the West Coast road trip.
4) Finish the season strong by taking down a Michigan team that has been looking more vulnerable than initially thought and avoid slipping up vs. Oregon and Maryland.
5) At least make it to Saturday (i.e., the Semifinals) of the BTT. Assuming we would have a double bye, this would mean winning our Friday game ... let's assume it is against a Quad 2 opponent (i.e., #51-100 in the NET) on a neutral floor, and let's assume our resume is "frozen in time" before the results of Saturday, as the Committee has already decided where we will be.
That would have our resume looking like this for the Selection Committee.
Record: 27-5
NET Ranking: TBD ... #10 today, so let's guess #5-7?
Road Record: 8-2
Neutral Record: 3-2
Home Record: 16-1
vs. Quad 1: 10-5
vs. Quad 2: 5-0
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 8-0
I mean, hell man ... that might be good enough for a #1 seed! This is a very optimistic scenario, sure, but the point is that we don't even need all of this to ensure we are above the #4 seed line. We could go 1-4 in the Iowa/Purdue/Nebraska/MSU/Michigan group of games and probably still get a #3 seed by not tripping up at home and going 2-0 in SoCal. A lot of great opportunity ahead for this group!
Cursed lol
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Took me surprisingly long to think to do this, because you can actually download the full NET Rankings data into Excel for any week of any year ... so crunching numbers at that point is pretty darn easy! With that said, I looked at the NET team sheets for the top 4 seeds in every post-COVID NCAA Tournament to try to create a "prototypical resume" for each seed line. Just for some context, these were the seeds from each year that made up our sample size, ordered by their overall seeds.
#1 Seeds
2022 - #1 Gonzaga, #2 Arizona, #3 Kansas, #4 Baylor
2023 - #1 Alabama, #2 Houston, #3 Kansas, #4 Purdue
2024 - #1 UConn, #2 Houston, #3 Purdue, #4 North Carolina
2025 - #1 Auburn, #2 Duke, #3 Houston, #4 Florida
#2 Seeds
2022 - #5 Auburn, #6 Kentucky, #7 Villanova, #8 Duke
2023 - #5 UCLA, #6 Texas, #7 Arizona, #8 Marquette
2024 - #5 Tennessee, #6 Arizona, #7 Marquette, #8 Iowa State
2025 - #5 Tennessee, #6 Alabama, #7 Michigan State, #8 St. John's (NY)
#3 Seeds
2022 - #9 Wisconsin, #10 Tennessee, #11 Purdue, #12 Texas Tech
2023 - #9 Baylor, #10 Gonzaga, #11 Kansas State, #12 Xavier
2024 - #9 Baylor, #10 Creighton, #11 Kentucky, #12 Illinois
2025 - #9 Texas Tech, #10 Iowa State, #11 Kentucky, #12 Wisconsin
#4 Seeds
2022 - #13 UCLA, #14 Illinois, #15 Providence, #16 Arkansas
2023 - #13 UConn, #14 Tennessee, #15 Indiana, #16 Virginia
2024 - #13 Duke, #14 Kansas, #15 Auburn, #16 Alabama
2025 - #13 Texas A&M, #14 Purdue, #15 Maryland, #16 Arizona
So, if you just average everything simply, here is your archetypal resume for each seed in the last four NCAA Tournaments!
#1 Seeds
Record: 29-5
NET Ranking: #3.4
NET SOS: #28
Road Record: 9-2
vs. Quad 1: 12-4
vs. Quad 2: 7-0
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #2.6
#2 Seeds
Record: 27-7
NET Ranking: #8.4
NET SOS: #30
Road Record: 6-5
vs. Quad 1: 9-6
vs. Quad 2: 7-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #6.8
#3 Seeds
Record: 24-8
NET Ranking: #13.9
NET SOS: #25
Road Record: 5-5
vs. Quad 1: 9-7
vs. Quad 2: 5-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #11.9
#4 Seeds
Record: 23-9
NET Ranking: #15.5
NET SOS: #34
Road Record: 5-5
vs. Quad 1: 6-7
vs. Quad 2: 7-2
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
AP Rank: #15.4
So re-organized by each category...
Overall Record
#1 Seed: 29-5
#2 Seed: 27-7
#3 Seed: 24-9
#4 Seed: 23-9
NET Ranking
#1 Seed: #3.4
#2 Seed: #8.4
#3 Seed: #13.9
#4 Seed: #15.5
NET SOS
#1 Seed: #28
#2 Seed: #30
#3 Seed: #25
#4 Seed: #34
Road Record
#1 Seed: 9-2
#2 Seed: 6-5
#3 Seed: 5-5
#4 Seed: 5-5
vs. Quad 1
#1 Seed: 12-4
#2 Seed: 9-6
#3 Seed: 9-7
#4 Seed: 6-7
vs. Quad 2
#1 Seed: 7-0
#2 Seed: 7-1
#3 Seed: 5-1
#4 Seed: 7-2
vs. Quad 3
#1 Seed: 5-0
#2 Seed: 5-0
#3 Seed: 4-0
#4 Seed: 5-0
vs. Quad 4
#1 Seed: 6-0
#2 Seed: 6-0
#3 Seed: 6-0
#4 Seed: 5-0
AP Rank
#1 Seed: #2.6
#2 Seed: #6.8
#3 Seed: #11.9
#3 Seed: #15.4
So while it's not this decades-long sample size and each year has its own unique factors, I think it sort of shows the massive importance of every game. In our quest to stay above the #4 seed line, literally one game could end up making the difference. A bit of a P.S. section below with some interesting facts about the seeds I looked at...
- The worst NET Ranking of any team profiled was 2022 Providence, which was #32 on Selection Sunday. They also had the #54 SOS and just 5 Quad 1 wins. They were, however, ranked #11 in the AP Poll, so ... food for thought for those that think the AP rankings are totally ignored.
- NONE of the 64 teams profiled here had a Quad 4 loss. They also collectively went 307-9 in Quad 3 games, so you definitely don't want those either if you want a good seed. 2022 Wisconsin (surprisingly the top #3 seed that year) is the only one of the 64 teams with more than one Quad 3 loss in a season. I suppose the Committee overlooked that due to their 9-3 Quad 1 record, 7-2 Quad 2 record and 9-2 road record. Which brings me to another point...
- The NET archives don't show a team's home record or neutral site record ... but they do make the deliberate choice to include its road record. To me, this says the Committee seriously looks at how a team performs away from home, as this will be a simulation of an NCAA Tournament environment. I like that this year's Illini squad is already 2-0 in road games, with one of them being a Quad 1 win.
- Due to tournaments and possibly unbalanced schedules, I think it is perhaps more important to look at a team's number of losses rather than number of wins. In this time period, zero #1 seeds had more than 7 losses on Selection Sunday, and 12 of the 16 had 5 or fewer losses. All 16 of the #2 seeds had 8 or fewer losses on Selection Sunday. 13 of the 16 #3 seeds had 9 or fewer losses, and the only teams who had double digit losses also had more than 10 Quad 1 wins and each had a top 3 SOS ranking nationally.
- This and the next point below it are less data-oriented and just my subjective opinion, but with that said ... this admittedly limited analysis seems to confirm people's belief that the powers-that-be do overrate the Blue Bloods. Every single #1 seed has been in the top 5 of the NET Rankings except for 2022 Kansas, 2023 Kansas and 2024 North Carolina. The only team in the entire analysis that has got a top 3 seed with more than 10 losses is 2025 Kentucky, though they had a fantastic SOS. However, SOS is also clearly never THAT big of a deal breaker, because Duke's has been #57, #68 and #71 in this timeframe. Again, a lot of factors, but they do seem to at least somewhat get the benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile...
- 2024 Auburn and 2025 Maryland (both #4 seeds) seem to be two teams that especially got the shaft recently. 2024 Auburn was #5 in the NET Rankings and had 13 Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins, with zero bad losses, plus being 27-7 overall. Admittedly, only 3 of those 13 Q1/Q2 wins were Quad 1 so that definitely hurt them, but I tend to think they did enough to earn a #3 seed that year and probably deserved it over #18 NET Kentucky, who had two more losses. This might show the value of head-to-head results, as UK won the only meeting that year at Auburn. 2025 Maryland is also perplexing, as they were #10 in the NET Rankings, 25-8 overall, had 8 Quad 1 wins, 6 Quad 2 wins and zero bad losses.
#1 Seeds
2022 - #1 Gonzaga, #2 Arizona, #3 Kansas, #4 Baylor
2023 - #1 Alabama, #2 Houston, #3 Kansas, #4 Purdue
2024 - #1 UConn, #2 Houston, #3 Purdue, #4 North Carolina
2025 - #1 Auburn, #2 Duke, #3 Houston, #4 Florida
#2 Seeds
2022 - #5 Auburn, #6 Kentucky, #7 Villanova, #8 Duke
2023 - #5 UCLA, #6 Texas, #7 Arizona, #8 Marquette
2024 - #5 Tennessee, #6 Arizona, #7 Marquette, #8 Iowa State
2025 - #5 Tennessee, #6 Alabama, #7 Michigan State, #8 St. John's (NY)
#3 Seeds
2022 - #9 Wisconsin, #10 Tennessee, #11 Purdue, #12 Texas Tech
2023 - #9 Baylor, #10 Gonzaga, #11 Kansas State, #12 Xavier
2024 - #9 Baylor, #10 Creighton, #11 Kentucky, #12 Illinois
2025 - #9 Texas Tech, #10 Iowa State, #11 Kentucky, #12 Wisconsin
#4 Seeds
2022 - #13 UCLA, #14 Illinois, #15 Providence, #16 Arkansas
2023 - #13 UConn, #14 Tennessee, #15 Indiana, #16 Virginia
2024 - #13 Duke, #14 Kansas, #15 Auburn, #16 Alabama
2025 - #13 Texas A&M, #14 Purdue, #15 Maryland, #16 Arizona
So, if you just average everything simply, here is your archetypal resume for each seed in the last four NCAA Tournaments!
#1 Seeds
Record: 29-5
NET Ranking: #3.4
NET SOS: #28
Road Record: 9-2
vs. Quad 1: 12-4
vs. Quad 2: 7-0
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #2.6
#2 Seeds
Record: 27-7
NET Ranking: #8.4
NET SOS: #30
Road Record: 6-5
vs. Quad 1: 9-6
vs. Quad 2: 7-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #6.8
#3 Seeds
Record: 24-8
NET Ranking: #13.9
NET SOS: #25
Road Record: 5-5
vs. Quad 1: 9-7
vs. Quad 2: 5-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0
AP Rank: #11.9
#4 Seeds
Record: 23-9
NET Ranking: #15.5
NET SOS: #34
Road Record: 5-5
vs. Quad 1: 6-7
vs. Quad 2: 7-2
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 5-0
AP Rank: #15.4
So re-organized by each category...
Overall Record
#1 Seed: 29-5
#2 Seed: 27-7
#3 Seed: 24-9
#4 Seed: 23-9
NET Ranking
#1 Seed: #3.4
#2 Seed: #8.4
#3 Seed: #13.9
#4 Seed: #15.5
NET SOS
#1 Seed: #28
#2 Seed: #30
#3 Seed: #25
#4 Seed: #34
Road Record
#1 Seed: 9-2
#2 Seed: 6-5
#3 Seed: 5-5
#4 Seed: 5-5
vs. Quad 1
#1 Seed: 12-4
#2 Seed: 9-6
#3 Seed: 9-7
#4 Seed: 6-7
vs. Quad 2
#1 Seed: 7-0
#2 Seed: 7-1
#3 Seed: 5-1
#4 Seed: 7-2
vs. Quad 3
#1 Seed: 5-0
#2 Seed: 5-0
#3 Seed: 4-0
#4 Seed: 5-0
vs. Quad 4
#1 Seed: 6-0
#2 Seed: 6-0
#3 Seed: 6-0
#4 Seed: 5-0
AP Rank
#1 Seed: #2.6
#2 Seed: #6.8
#3 Seed: #11.9
#3 Seed: #15.4
So while it's not this decades-long sample size and each year has its own unique factors, I think it sort of shows the massive importance of every game. In our quest to stay above the #4 seed line, literally one game could end up making the difference. A bit of a P.S. section below with some interesting facts about the seeds I looked at...
- The worst NET Ranking of any team profiled was 2022 Providence, which was #32 on Selection Sunday. They also had the #54 SOS and just 5 Quad 1 wins. They were, however, ranked #11 in the AP Poll, so ... food for thought for those that think the AP rankings are totally ignored.
- NONE of the 64 teams profiled here had a Quad 4 loss. They also collectively went 307-9 in Quad 3 games, so you definitely don't want those either if you want a good seed. 2022 Wisconsin (surprisingly the top #3 seed that year) is the only one of the 64 teams with more than one Quad 3 loss in a season. I suppose the Committee overlooked that due to their 9-3 Quad 1 record, 7-2 Quad 2 record and 9-2 road record. Which brings me to another point...
- The NET archives don't show a team's home record or neutral site record ... but they do make the deliberate choice to include its road record. To me, this says the Committee seriously looks at how a team performs away from home, as this will be a simulation of an NCAA Tournament environment. I like that this year's Illini squad is already 2-0 in road games, with one of them being a Quad 1 win.
- Due to tournaments and possibly unbalanced schedules, I think it is perhaps more important to look at a team's number of losses rather than number of wins. In this time period, zero #1 seeds had more than 7 losses on Selection Sunday, and 12 of the 16 had 5 or fewer losses. All 16 of the #2 seeds had 8 or fewer losses on Selection Sunday. 13 of the 16 #3 seeds had 9 or fewer losses, and the only teams who had double digit losses also had more than 10 Quad 1 wins and each had a top 3 SOS ranking nationally.
- This and the next point below it are less data-oriented and just my subjective opinion, but with that said ... this admittedly limited analysis seems to confirm people's belief that the powers-that-be do overrate the Blue Bloods. Every single #1 seed has been in the top 5 of the NET Rankings except for 2022 Kansas, 2023 Kansas and 2024 North Carolina. The only team in the entire analysis that has got a top 3 seed with more than 10 losses is 2025 Kentucky, though they had a fantastic SOS. However, SOS is also clearly never THAT big of a deal breaker, because Duke's has been #57, #68 and #71 in this timeframe. Again, a lot of factors, but they do seem to at least somewhat get the benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile...
- 2024 Auburn and 2025 Maryland (both #4 seeds) seem to be two teams that especially got the shaft recently. 2024 Auburn was #5 in the NET Rankings and had 13 Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins, with zero bad losses, plus being 27-7 overall. Admittedly, only 3 of those 13 Q1/Q2 wins were Quad 1 so that definitely hurt them, but I tend to think they did enough to earn a #3 seed that year and probably deserved it over #18 NET Kentucky, who had two more losses. This might show the value of head-to-head results, as UK won the only meeting that year at Auburn. 2025 Maryland is also perplexing, as they were #10 in the NET Rankings, 25-8 overall, had 8 Quad 1 wins, 6 Quad 2 wins and zero bad losses.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
We’re currently 3-3 in Q1 games with 8 Q1 games remaining. Assuming we have no Q3-Q4 losses and 1 or fewer Q2 losses, this is about what we’d have to go in Q1 games for each seed based on your data:
1 seed: 7-1
2 seed: 5-3
3 seed: 4-4
4 seed: 3-4
There appears to be a pretty strong top 10 this year, so we might need 1 extra Q1 win in seeds 2-4 to secure each seed (a Q1 win or two in the BTT would also help).
My current goal:
Win these 6 + 1 in the BTT and lock in a 2 seed:
| Q1 | Away | (18) | 19 Iowa | 01/11/2026 | |
| Q1 | Away | (74) | Northwestern | 01/14/2026 | |
| Q1 | Away | (11) | 10 Nebraska | 02/01/2026 | |
| Q1 | Home | (30) | Indiana | 02/15/2026 | |
| Q1 | Away | (47) | Southern California | 02/18/2026 | |
| Q1 | Away | (45) | UCLA | 02/21/2026 |
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I see a early hump.... then destruction. revenge. put them in their place. I hate the Pacific time zone x 2
Fighter of Nightman’s novels lol.
Shouldn’t it be 9? The six you listed plus MSU, Michigan, Purdue.
Pre NIL date doesn't really matter anymore. Talent dispersion is not the same as it used to be.
Really NIL hadn't really hit full swing until a year or two ago but it really feels like the best teams are better and deeper than ever. Which makes sense when you can plug holes and add upper classman as depth instead of just competing for freshman.
Last year it was all 4 one seeds. The year prior it was 2 ones, a 4(Alabama), and an 11 NC State.
We will see how it plays out and I don't want to jump to conclusions from one tournament but it's starting to feel like a 1 seed needs to be the goal and settle for a 2 if you want a legitimate shot at winning a title.
For example, Michigan is favored by 18.5 against Wisconsin that is kenpom #43 and Iowa State is also favored by that much playing a 13-2 Oklahoma State team that just beat a ranked UCF team by 9.
Even for very good teams it's rare to see that large of spreads for in conference matchups against teams that could potentially be tournament teams. I don't think Wisconsin is that good this year but they beat UCLA already and Boyd/Blackwell isn't a bad backcourt. Sidenote: will be interesting to see Boyd(Wisconsin's leading scorer) against May who coached him at FAU.
Boyd was the third guard on that FAU team after Davis and Martin for anyone that might not remember.
Lots of great points here. I think one thing that stands out if we want a 2 seed:
There’s only been one team in that entire time frame that has had 10 or more quad 1 wins AND no more than 8 losses …. and wasn’t awarded a top 2 seed: 2022 Tennessee.
I think that’s a fairly good formula for what we should aim for. High bar but attainable.
Probably wishful thinking, but just how amazing would it be for Mizzou to sneak into the top 50 and be a Q1 win for us. The SEC is not that good IMO — looking at their schedule, there’s definitely some games they could win.
I remember looking back on this some time ago - VERY rarely does a team with more than 8 losses get a 2 seed. OSU in 2020 was like the one outlier.
Yeah this is kinda crazy. They had:
- 11 Q1 wins
- only seven losses
- ALL losses to quad 1 teams.
And were only given a 3 seed.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Oh yes, you are correct. It is 9 now since northwestern snuck in at 74. That will be one to watch all season, especially if we win that game.
I think if we have 8 or less losses we’re a 2 seed. For us to even get to that record we must’ve won some quality Q1 games.
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