Yeah it is kind of a backhanded compliment.
Week of 1/6 Bracketology
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I agree - I don't think there will ever be an article that can top the attached.
And then there was Dee Brown's cover pic on Sports Illustrated.
A season for the ages.
I will reserve my judgement for Duke after we play them. Their only great win so far is against Auburn in their house. Not enough data point for me.
Auburn, on the other hand, looks really solid. We will see if they come out better or worse after their conference games.
Any Illini national championship team will immediately become the most memorable team.
Thats not to say we wont remember those that came up short...but that first win of my fandom will be that much more special because of them.
End of the day, metrics such as NET and KenPom will have a lot to say. I am pretty sold at Auburn unless they crap out in conference play. Duke has a very light schedule, which does not help Quad 1 wins so we shall see. We have a very slight advantage that it might help us a little bit if we win the B1G but I am not even sure if that is a factor.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Don't disagree with your general overall premise (we went into the tourney 23-6 to get the 1 seed in 2021). I gave the range of 2-4 seed because it would be highly dependent on what other teams do (I suspect 2 or 3 seed would be most likely). Getting a 1 seed with 7 or 8 losses this year would not be very likely, IMO, given the top heavy nature of the country this year. I think the Illini would need to go into the BTT with 6 losses to have a legitimate shot at a 1 seed, but stranger things have happened based on the key metrics.
I will say the Illini got a 1 seed in 2021 with 6 losses due to a tremendous run from Jan 19 through the BTT (14-1 in their last 15 games) --including three straight top 25 road wins in February (Wisconsin, Mich destruction, and OSU). I think some of us forget how special that run was due to the running out of gas (who knows how much the marathon BTT champ game drained team) in the NCAA tourney.
But it's also not that far from the truth. Outside of cbb junkies, big ten fans, and gamblers most people haven't thought about Illinois basketball this year until now.
That 30-0 run took a little shine off of last year in the national view because it's such an anomaly. We have to live with that. I adore last year's team but let's erase that memory from everyone's memory with better ones this year.
Our best option is to meet UConn in the tournament this year and return the favor as we run through the field like they did.That would be a dream come true
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
My dream would be for UCONN to lose in the first round or not make the NCAAT at all.
My main point is that number of losses is really not a good metric to judge resume in this day and age.
Your original post was that if we lose 4 more games in the regular season we're looking at a 2/3/4 seed. I think given what we've already done, it is very unlikely that we'd be a 4 seed (Indiana got this last year at 22-11) and pretty unlikely we'd be a 3 seed (Baylor was a 22-10 3 seed last year).
4 more losses means we either go 15-5 in conference and beat Duke or 16-4 in conference (and likely win the conference). I think either of those resumes stacks up as at least a 2 seed. I suppose it's possible we end up with a 2022 situation where no Big Ten teams gets better than a 3 seed, but none of those teams were very impressive in Kenpom. Right now our Kenpom ratings and ranking are much better than those 2021-22 Big Ten teams.
I also think it's premature to judge the "top heavy nature of the country." Let's see what happens in conference play.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I agree with everything you say here; but since it is January, I tend to look at the data much more conservatively with respect to seeding, as we have no way of knowing what happens with other teams and how resumes will stack up (hence why I left a wider range for our projected seeding). To date, I believe we are a pretty solid 3 seed in most brackets. I think the team has the talent to beat projected expectations and get up to a 1 seed. If the team does go into the BTT at 24-7, with the resume accomplished, yes a 2 seed seems to be the most likely. The lost opportunity against Tennessee in December might be the difference between a 1 and 2 seed at the end of the day, but I strongly believe that the team is F4 good no matter what seed line they get.
If not already posted, there’s great Illini coverage on top the men’s bball page on ESPN. They’re finally waking up.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
"No one"???? Is he on Loyalty? Loyalty level hyperbole for sure.
I don't think total W/L is a good metric but quad 1/2 win matters. (And qud 3/4 loss matters.) Duke will be a curious case study this year as they will have a good total win but probably not as many quad 1 wins.
I'm sorry, but any allegedly informed analysis of ILLINI basketball in 2025 that does NOT include the name Tre White is simply not worth the paper that it is written on, Lunardi included. What does Tre need to do to get the respect that he deserves???
Duke has huge advantage playing in very weak conference.
That’s how I feel about clown pants university EVERY year.
The last game we played was so sloppy in the end. Just throwing up anything and missing. I believe we are a top tier team but it's so frustrating when you see the percentages go down because of bad shots and shots that are not well thought out. I don't understand anything about bracketology or anything that's being talked about right now. I just wish they would, even when they're blowing out an opponent, think about the horrible shots they're making. Because as far as bracketology I believe they would be in the top four. Just don't like to see productivity like that. Throwing up balls without any thought. I hope that doesn't happen today even if we cream their corn..
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Yet.....
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
It's only a surprise reboot if you haven't followed Brad's career and didn't watch any tape on who we were bringing in. All the signs were there in August that we were gonna be good. Considering this is Lundardi's job, you'd think he'd have seen it coming. But that's why this job has passed him by. He was an early innovator who, like so many as they age, refuses to adapt and gets so set in his initial thought pattern that he becomes the last to see the obvious. It's why his brackets are basically useless until Selection Sunday when they magically fall in line with the pretty darn obvious consensus.
I think it depends upon how you define good. We had a really young team coming into this season, so many (including me) predicted we'd have quite a bit more growing pains than we have had. If you look at most of the season prognostications in the earlier thread on this board, most predicted 3-4 losses in non-conference, a 4th-6th place finish in conference, and 6th-8th seed in the tournament. I don't think there were too many who predicted we'd be ranked 13th-and-should-be-higher at this point in the season and contending for the B1G title.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
We were 4th in the B1G media day poll and received first-place votes, KJ got votes for freshman of the year, and Bos got votes for transfer of the year. KenPom had us at 23rd coming into the season. Nothing about that is a "surprise reboot" except to a national guy who doesn't do his homework. Again, I'd argue Lunardi was way too slow to see what people who follow the conference already knew. Now Michigan, who was picked 9th with a brand new coach, that would be a "surprise reboot."
Big Ten basketball preseason media poll: Can Purdue repeat again? Will IU challenge?
This year's Big Ten media preseason poll includes predicted order of finish, player, freshman and transfer of the year, and two all-conference teams.
www.indystar.com
Big Ten expert picks: 2024-25 preview, projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch
Led by Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Braden Smith, Purdue is projected to edge UCLA for the conference title
www.cbssports.com
Big Ten Basketball: Where Every Team Stands in 2024-25 Preseason KenPom Rankings
The first edition of the KenPom rankings have been released for the 2024-25 college basketball season. Purdue is the highest-ranked Big Ten team at No. 10.
www.si.com
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It's a surprise that we're on track for a better seed than last season. That's all Lunardi was saying. And most of the information you've presented doesn't disagree with that sentiment. 23rd on KenPom suggests a 6 seed. Lunardi was talking about us as a potential 1 seed.We were 4th in the B1G media day poll and received first-place votes, KJ got votes for freshman of the year, and Bos got votes for transfer of the year. KenPom had us at 23rd coming into the season. Nothing about that is a "surprise reboot" except to a national guy who doesn't do his homework. Again, I'd argue Lunardi was way too slow to see what people who follow the conference already knew. Now Michigan, who was picked 9th with a brand new coach, that would be a "surprise reboot."
Big Ten basketball preseason media poll: Can Purdue repeat again? Will IU challenge?
This year's Big Ten media preseason poll includes predicted order of finish, player, freshman and transfer of the year, and two all-conference teams.www.indystar.comBig Ten expert picks: 2024-25 preview, projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch
Led by Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Braden Smith, Purdue is projected to edge UCLA for the conference titleBig Ten Basketball: Where Every Team Stands in 2024-25 Preseason KenPom Rankings
The first edition of the KenPom rankings have been released for the 2024-25 college basketball season. Purdue is the highest-ranked Big Ten team at No. 10.
No matter what you think of Brad, bringing back 5 minutes from the prior year yet being in play for a 1 seed is unexpected.
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