So, I have a question on FAU for those who are our numbers/metrics gurus. They're highly ranked and highly thought of, but after they play in a conference that's not going to do them a lot of favors from a strength of schedule standpoint.....what numbers are going to get them to a top 4 seed? I see where Lunardi has them as a #3. How will the metrics support that?
A number of the metric sites are based on relative team results. If FAU "meets expectations", their relative ranking will stay roughly the same.
Hypothetical example:
- FAU is ranked #10 (a 3 seed) before entering league play.
- The metrics based on play thus far this season expect them to win their conference games by an average of 15pts (entirely made up).
If during conference play, FAU wins their games by ~15 pts, their overall ranking will stay pretty stable in the metrics. If their win/loss margin is significantly higher/lower, then they will shift.
This is why it is important for conferences to do well in the early inter-conference games. This is when the rating pie shares are being handed out. Once conference seasons begin, teams are trading shares amongst themselves.