Week of 2/16 Bracketology

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#101      
I don't understand this even more. If all you care about is the triple bye, then root for Nebraska and Michigan State to lose. Purdue losing is not the ONLY way to achieve that.

I simply do not see us having more than at most 5 losses. Sorry, I don't.

So: root for Nebby to get to 5 Ls and MSU to get to 6 Ls.
Agreed on those losing as well like Iowa holding serve against Nebby. My point is that we are only playing 7 guys at the moment, not sure when AS will be ready. Regardless, we do not want to play a Thursday game. We neeed to have as much rest as possible. What does winning the regular season bring to us other than a banner? I would rather win the BTT and get to the EE as a minimum.
 
#102      
If You Aint First Youre Last Will Ferrell GIF by StickerGiant
 
#103      
Agreed on those losing as well like Iowa holding serve against Nebby. My point is that we are only playing 7 guys at the moment, not sure when AS will be ready. Regardless, we do not want to play a Thursday game. We neeed to have as much rest as possible. What does winning the regular season bring to us other than a banner? I would rather win the BTT and get to the EE as a minimum.
Cool. You do not need to willingly piss away our title hopes to make that happen.

Root for OSU against Wiscy today and you'll be golden (see my edited post that you responded to).
 
#104      
I don't understand this even more. If all you care about is the triple bye, Purdue losing is not the ONLY way to achieve that. Root for Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State to lose.

I simply do not see us having more than at most 5 losses. Sorry, I don't.

So: root for Michigan State to lose @Purdue and @Michigan. That would give them 6 Ls.

And root for OSU to beat WISC today. Wiscy still has @Purdue, so that would give them 6 Ls.

Boom, mission achieved with only those two.

Plus, Nebby could also lose 2/3 of @Iowa, @USC, @UCLA.

I'd much rather have Purdue win this game and control our destiny for the title. What a ridiculous narrative.
Agreed on those losing as well like Iowa holding serve against Nebby. My point is that we are only playing 7 guys at the moment, not sure when AS will be ready. Regardless, we do not want to play a Thursday game. We neeed to have as much rest as possible. What does winning the regular season bring to us other than a banner? I would rather win the BTT and get to the EE as a minimum.
Cool. You do not need to willingly piss away our title hopes to make that happen.

Root for OSU against Wiscy today and you'll be golden (see my edited post that you responded to).
For my money you destroyed that talking point lol.
 
#106      
Not that it really changes anything, but you have 2021 as meeting expectations. That is definitely an "underachieved" result.
Good catch and definitely an obvious oversight. Hell, given how long we had spent being bad, how GREAT we looked to close out the regular season and the fact that it occurred against a smaller instate school ... I would argue it's our most disappointing NCAA Tournament loss ever, or at least up there.
 
#107      
To sum up what we need to be rooting for tonight:

1. Purdue beats Michigan
2. OSU beats Wiscy

1 gives us a shot at the conf title

2 gives us an EXTREMELY likely path to a triple bye as long as we don't lose more than 2 of our final 5 games.

Of course Iowa beating Nebby would also be sweet.
 
#108      
Yeah, I have always thought it was crazy and interesting how the makeup of our conference has historically seemed unique in this regard. We have a surprisingly great / large group of "second tier" programs with great histories, but nobody comes close to a Kentucky that can carry a conference with a lot of titles.

Rewind to just after the 2005 NCAA Tournament, one year after we made our fifth Final Four, five years before UConn got National Championship #3 out of what would become six and well before the more extreme conference realignment that was to come. The National Championships and Final Fours makeup of the conferences is interestingly different.

ACC | 40 Final Fours & 11 National Championships
North Carolina: 16 Final Fours, 4 NCs
Duke: 14 Final Fours, 3 NCs
NC State: 3 Final Fours, 2 NCs
Maryland: 2 Final Fours, 2 NCs
Virginia: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
- Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Florida State all had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Miami (FL), Clemson and Virginia Tech all had 0 Final Fours

Big XII | 32 Final Fours & 4 National Championships
Kansas: 12 Final Fours, 2 NCs
Oklahoma State: 6 Final Fours, 2 NCs
Kansas State: 4 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Texas: 3 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Oklahoma: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Baylor: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Colorado: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
- Iowa State had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Missouri, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Nebraska all had 0 Final Fours

Big East | 20 Final Fours & 5 National Championships
Georgetown: 4 Final Fours, 1 NC
Syracuse: 3 Final Fours, 1 NCs
UConn: 2 Final Fours, 2 NCs
St. John's (NY): 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Villanova: 2 Final Fours, 1 NC
Providence: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
- Seton Hall, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Pitt and Rutgers all had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Boston College had 0 Final Fours

Pac Ten | 30 Final Fours & 15 National Championships
UCLA: 14 Final Fours, 11 NCs
Arizona: 4 Final Fours, 1 NC
Cal: 3 Final Fours, 1 NC
Stanford: 2 Final Fours, 1 NC
Oregon State: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
USC: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Oregon: 1 Final Four, 1 NC
- Washington and Washington State had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Arizona State had 0 Final Fours

SEC | 26 Final Fours & 8 National Championships
Kentucky: 13 Final Fours, 7 NCs
Arkansas: 6 Final Fours, 1 NC
LSU: 3 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Florida: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
- Georgia and Mississippi State had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina Ole Miss, Auburn and Vanderbilt all had 0 Final Fours

Big Ten | 37 Final Fours & 10 National Championships
Indiana: 8 Final Fours, 5 NCs
Ohio State: 8 Final Fours, 1 NC
Illinois: 5 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Michigan State: 4 Final Fours, 2 NCs
Michigan: 4 Final Fours, 1 NC
Iowa: 3 Final Fours, 0 NCs
Wisconsin: 2 Final Fours, 1 NC
Purdue: 2 Final Fours, 0 NCs
- Penn State had 1 Final Four and 0 NCs
- Minnesota and Northwestern had 0 Final Fours (Minny vacated one)

So by category...

Final Fours
ACC - 40
Big Ten - 37
Big XII - 32
Pac Ten - 30
SEC - 26
Big East - 20

National Championships
Pac Ten - 15
ACC - 11
Big Ten - 10
SEC - 8
Big East - 5
Big XII - 4

Percent of Final Fours That Result in National Championships
Pac Ten - 50.0%
SEC - 30.8%
ACC - 27.5%
Big Ten - 27.0%
Big XII - 12.5%

Percent of Final Fours From Top Team
SEC - 50.0% (Kentucky)
Pac Ten - 46.7% (UCLA)
ACC - 40.0% (North Carolina) ... jumps to 75.0% if you add UNC and Duke
Big XII - 37.5% (Kansas)
Big Ten - 21.6% (Indiana or Ohio State)
Big East - 20.0% (Georgetown)

Percent of National Championships From Top Team
SEC - 87.5% (Kentucky)
Pac Ten - 73.3% (UCLA)
Big XII - 50.0% (Kansas or Oklahoma State)
Big Ten - 50.0% (Indiana)
Big East - 40.0% (UConn)
ACC - 36.4% (North Carolina) ... jumps to 63.6% if you add UNC and Duke

Schools With 3+ Final Fours
Big Ten - 6 (54.5% of total) [Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa]
Big XII - 4 (33.3% of total) [Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas]
Pac Ten - 3 (30.0% of total) [UCLA, Arizona, Cal]
ACC - 3 (27.3% of total) [North Carolina, Duke, NC State]
SEC - 3 (25.0% of total) [Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU]
Big East - 2 (16.7% of total) [Georgetown, Syracuse]

TL;DR

The Big Ten has been a historically very deep league, and other than a period of dominance by Indiana that is ancient history at this point, we have not had a Blue Blood to boost our National Championship totals. Even still, we have had a way higher percentage of our league make it to the Final Four several different times, unfortunately coming up short. However, when you isolate Blue Bloods that are totally carrying their conferences (e.g., Kentucky in the SEC or UNC/Duke in the ACC) and compare it to an Indiana-less Big Ten, the rest of our conference is much better than the rest of everybody else's.
You point it out but the takeaway is that the blue bloods (or 4-6 historic programs) win the majority of the titles. Beyond that it is one off great seasons from good programs.

The big tens issue is that it’s been 45 years since it had a true blue blood (IU bob knight) so we don’t go into any given year with a guaranteed top 5 talent team. MSU has been the closest to this the past 25 years and most of those have been good talent with a great coach/program.
 
#109      
Good catch and definitely an obvious oversight. Hell, given how long we had spent being bad, how GREAT we looked to close out the regular season and the fact that it occurred against a smaller instate school ... I would argue it's our most disappointing NCAA Tournament loss ever, or at least up there.
It also completely alters public perception of Brad's quality as a coach.
 
#110      
Good catch and definitely an obvious oversight. Hell, given how long we had spent being bad, how GREAT we looked to close out the regular season and the fact that it occurred against a smaller instate school ... I would argue it's our most disappointing NCAA Tournament loss ever, or at least up there.
That was a tough one because it was an in state school. They were obviously grossly under seeded, so from that perspective....it stinks, but it happens.

Austin Peay
East Tennessee St
Western Kentucky
Dayton
Cleveland State

There have been some bad ones.
 
#112      
I do not have ridiculous posts. We are getting closer to having the triple bye. With only a 8 man rotation, we need to save our legs as we saw in 22 what a fatigued team looks like. The only chance we win the regular season at this point is to run the table and have Michigan lose at home to MSU. I doubt MSU can beat them. Let’s just get the triple bye and win the BTT.
 
#114      
Going forward, out of the 6 teams vying for the triple bye, Nebraska has the easiest schedule followed by us, Michigan, and the mixture of Wisconsin, MSU and Purdue. At this point, I would say that our only realistic chance of winning the conference is for us to run the table and Michigan lose to either at Iowa or home against MSU. If the same refs call the Iowa Michigan game like they did last night, there is a chance. For us, it’s simple to win out to secure no worse than the 2 seed in the BTT. If we go 4-1, we most likely will be tied with Nebraska who has the tie breaker so we would most likely be the 3 seed. Purdue and Wisconsin still play each other and I believe MSU has @Michigan, @IU and @ Purdue. They could lose 2 from that and Wisconsin has Iowa, @ Washington and @ Purdue. Hopefully they lose 1 out of that. Purdue has @ OSU, IU, MSU and Wisconsin. One loss takes them to 15-5. We should be no worse than a 3 seed in the BTT and 2 wins. There should secure no worse than a 2 seed on Selection Sunday.
 
#116      
So last night probably ended the shot at big ten title. However, a sweep this week puts us in a great spot for the triple bye BTT and a #2 tourney seed in the big dance. Nebraska and Purdue will be behind us on the S curve.
 
#117      
Going forward, out of the 6 teams vying for the triple bye, Nebraska has the easiest schedule followed by us, Michigan, and the mixture of Wisconsin, MSU and Purdue. At this point, I would say that our only realistic chance of winning the conference is for us to run the table and Michigan lose to either at Iowa or home against MSU. If the same refs call the Iowa Michigan game like they did last night, there is a chance. For us, it’s simple to win out to secure no worse than the 2 seed in the BTT. If we go 4-1, we most likely will be tied with Nebraska who has the tie breaker so we would most likely be the 3 seed. Purdue and Wisconsin still play each other and I believe MSU has @Michigan, @IU and @ Purdue. They could lose 2 from that and Wisconsin has Iowa, @ Washington and @ Purdue. Hopefully they lose 1 out of that. Purdue has @ OSU, IU, MSU and Wisconsin. One loss takes them to 15-5. We should be no worse than a 3 seed in the BTT and 2 wins. There should secure no worse than a 2 seed on Selection Sunday.
Why would Nebraska have the tie breaker? What comes after head to head?
 
#118      
Going forward, out of the 6 teams vying for the triple bye, Nebraska has the easiest schedule followed by us, Michigan, and the mixture of Wisconsin, MSU and Purdue. At this point, I would say that our only realistic chance of winning the conference is for us to run the table and Michigan lose to either at Iowa or home against MSU. If the same refs call the Iowa Michigan game like they did last night, there is a chance. For us, it’s simple to win out to secure no worse than the 2 seed in the BTT. If we go 4-1, we most likely will be tied with Nebraska who has the tie breaker so we would most likely be the 3 seed. Purdue and Wisconsin still play each other and I believe MSU has @Michigan, @IU and @ Purdue. They could lose 2 from that and Wisconsin has Iowa, @ Washington and @ Purdue. Hopefully they lose 1 out of that. Purdue has @ OSU, IU, MSU and Wisconsin. One loss takes them to 15-5. We should be no worse than a 3 seed in the BTT and 2 wins. There should secure no worse than a 2 seed on Selection Sunday.
If we go 4-1, I highly doubt that Nebraska will be tied with us in standings. Nebraska has to do the same LA trip that we are doing this week. They then close with Iowa who just beat them. I do not think Nebraska is going 5-0 in that closing stretch. I think the odds of them going 5-0 are close to the same as going 3-2.
 
#119      
Why would Nebraska have the tie breaker? What comes after head to head?

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

Nebraska is 1-0 vs MSU, we are 0-1 vs MSU
Nebraska is 0-1 vs Purdue, we are 1-0 vs Purdue
Nebraska is 0-1 vs Iowa, we are 1-0 vs Iowa
Both 1-0 vs OSU
Both 1-0 vs Indiana
Both 2-0 vs NW
Both 1-0 vs Washington
Both 1-0 vs Minnesota
Both 1-0 vs Rutgers

We now have the tie breaker due to their loss vs Iowa last night
 
#120      
So last night probably ended the shot at big ten title. However, a sweep this week puts us in a great spot for the triple bye BTT and a #2 tourney seed in the big dance. Nebraska and Purdue will be behind us on the S curve.
Last night really made the path simple for a 2 seed in St. Louis…it also made a better path that someone like Florida or Kansas get up to the 2 line so we can get someone like Gonzaga instead in 2/3
 
#122      
So last night probably ended the shot at big ten title. However, a sweep this week puts us in a great spot for the triple bye BTT and a #2 tourney seed in the big dance. Nebraska and Purdue will be behind us on the S curve.

I don’t think so, not yet Atleast. But it did appear to be the most obvious loss on the calendar for Michigan outside of us. there’s still some landmines there though.

I DO however think, it took away any margin for error from anyone else though.

I’ll never forget Nebraska winning at Wisconsin the final day
 
#123      
I don’t think so, not yet Atleast. But it did appear to be the most obvious loss on the calendar for Michigan outside of us. there’s still some landmines there though.

I DO however think, it took away any margin for error from anyone else though.

I’ll never forget Nebraska winning at Wisconsin the final day
And then handling business right after that against Iowa. SFC was rocking that evening.
 
#124      
Miami (OH) is about to complete the first undefeated season in a long time and probably isn't going to get more than a 4- or 5-seed.
A 10 see would be generous IMO. Playing a steady stream of bottom feeders, many of their wins are by 5pts or less. Most are single digits. They are not good. They are determined.

If I was on the committee, they only make the tourney if they win their conference. Then I'd give them an 11 seed play in game. I expect them to lose by double digits.
 
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