Week of 2/16 Bracketology

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#232      
wc_illini
EmeraldCityIllini said:
UConn losing at home to Creighton and Illinois and Michigan losing to Wisconsin all being quad 2 losses is a flaw.
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IMO quads will always be a flaw. Let the computers sort out the relative value of wins.

I understand the desire for some to prefer resume over efficiency, but still, computers will do better at whatever it is "they" want. Maybe some human intervention can be useful for accounting for injuries or whether there was controversy surrounding the outcome of any games. But those could just be additional inputs to a computer (if not already programmed in)
 
#234      
wc_illini
If Torvik's site is up to date, a straight average of the 6 ranking systems (KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KP, TRK) would give:
1 Michigan
2 Duke
3 Arizona
4 Houston
5 Illinois
6 Iowa St.
7 Purdue
8 Connecticut
9 Florida
10 Kansas
11 Nebraska
12 Gonzaga

I want to be a #1, but since only KenPom and Torvik have us in the top 4, I think this is reasonable as of today. At least it doesn't depend on someone's opinion
 
#244      
pweo
The metric that makes getting a 1 unlikely is WAB. We can win out and still struggle to make top 4 with the opportunities for the Big 12 team's still out there. Torvik shows winning out would add ~2.0 to our total (he has us at 6.7 now fwiw)
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#246      
Piotyr
pweo said:
The metric that makes getting a 1 unlikely is WAB. We can win out and still struggle to make top 4 with the opportunities for the Big 12 team's still out there. Torvik shows winning out would add ~2.0 to our total (he has us at 6.7 now fwiw)View attachment 47725
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Counterpoint: They're less than half a point out of 4th with 2 Q1 chances left on the schedule. Winning games period raises WAB (which is why Miami OH is so high in the metric) so if UConn drops another one and Arizona/Houston drops a couple, Illinois is right there.
 
#248      
Altuve27
It doesn’t make any difference, but I am interested to see where the selection committee has us Saturday.
 
#249      
Iloveorangekoolaid
#250      
aaeismacgychel
Noblesville Illini said:
Huh, when I said it, I was told I was wrong. Seth Davis says it and it’s gospel…..

Think Stephen Colbert GIF by The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
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If Seth Davis were correct, it would mean that committee members who have been asked about it and said the opposite are incorrect.

What I think is really going on is semantics and misdirection. The committee can't say the games don't matter, so instead they say they consider them but then add modifiers and clauses as to why they're diminished. "Time constraints" "1 in 34 games", etc.

Let's read between the lines. What's the easiest way to say the BTT Final matters? You say you have 2 brackets depending on who won. Simple. Easy. Instead committee members stumble all over themselves giving reasons why that result may be devalued.

There also is the whole timing issue where multiple committee members have said the bracket is fully finalized on Sunday afternoon (including the BTT autoqualifier possibility of replace last team in with BTT autoqualifier in play in and call it good), which just so happens to be before the game is played, and that aside for the possible BTT autoqualifier issue there is no other contingency bracket. As well there is that inconvenient timing issue of it being previously leaked that the Selection has the bracket in hand prior to the BTT final whistle.

I know this topic gets brought up daily this time of year, but no, there is no viable way the BTT Finals actually matters unless the Committee decidedly makes contingency brackets prior to the game being played. Something that would be a change in approach and would be extremely easy for the Selection committee to say and verify, and yet hasn't
 
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