Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
The committee’s super secret selection methodology for picking the top lines in the tournament.
Week of 2/16 Bracketology
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The committee’s super secret selection methodology for picking the top lines in the tournament.
It’s a great point. Don’t even really disagree, i still think it’s difficult in practice though.
For teams like SLU or Miami or Ohio, missing a player for just one game can be disastrous - could quite literally lose only 2 games and miss the tournament - heck I’m not even sure what would happen if Miami only lost their first game in conference tournament.
For us, Kylan and Andrej missing games, especially Wisconsin - let’s pretend only that game they were injured - that could be the difference in a seed line, as it is probably right now, so how is that fair to the 1 seed in our region or the 2 seed if we get a 3?
Just think it could be a rabbit hole
Wow! Last I checked it was 131.9
The most ridiculous fact is the difference between 1-2 compared to the rest of the field.
The difference between Illinois and Purdue is 3.3
The difference between #2 and #10 (Purdue and Houston) is 2.9
The difference between #2 and #11 (Purdue and Arizona) is 3.5
Insane. Historic. Unstoppable.
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I heard that every team that had +35 kenpom differential has made the final four. I'm curious is if true. does anyone know?
as you can see we are knocking on the door of that
Until last year, there had only been 6 and then there were 4 last year alone. And all 10 made the Final Four.
That's based on end of year NetRtg so it takes into account tournament performance which likely raised some of those over the 35 NetRtg threshold.
True.
However, it’s obvious teams have learned to juice these metrics. Usually there’s AT MAX one team with a 35+ net rating. Last year there were 4:
All 4 did make the F4 …
so yes to your question.
This year there’s 3 teams with a 35+ net rating, with Illinois right on the brink:
The thing about this however, and LaTulip talked about this, is that OF COURSE a team will be 35+ when they make a final four. Kenpom does not stop on selection Sunday. So say Illinois is a 35 on selection Sunday, but loses in the sweet sixteen - that benchmark is not broken because that 35 rating almost certainly will not remain after that loss.
Key thing to know when you hear “every team that has won this and this has had so and so Kenpom rating.”
If Illinois had a +36 NetRtg and lost to Houston in the Elite 8 by a bucket, their NetRtg would stay above +35.
For a recent example, Arizona was still over +35 immediately after their loss to Kansas which is similar to a tight Elite 8 loss.
The fact is that there were 6 teams with NetRtgs of +35 or better from 1998 through 2024. +35 or better is just ELITE.
Your point stands for many other NetRtg threshold talking points though.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
And that’s same thing with the defense needing to be top 25 right?
From just before last year's tournament:
They seem pretty sure these ratings were before the tournament. I could verify the last two, but couldn't find data going back far enough for the first two.
Just a theory, but I've been assuming it's partly from the elimination of sitting out a year upon transferring. Previously, breakout players were more stuck on whatever team they went to first. Now the top programs can scoop them up.
I'm curious whether NIL boosts that further or works against it. Mid-tier programs have paid surprising amounts for single players despite limited team budgets. Some top players want be the star of the team, but previously wouldn't have given up the under-the-table benefits the top programs were presumably giving out.
The bar legitimately is 35+
There have been teams that are 34+ that have lost before the F4 (both Duke).
There have been teams that are 34+ that have lost before the F4 (both Duke).
Here's the catch with this. It says "this century" which is the key.
1997-98 Duke finished the season with a 34.88 after their Elite Eight loss to Kentucky.
However, that's where they FINISHED that season. I think it's fairly likely that they were above a 35 GOING INTO the tournament.
But who knows (I'm not 100% certain) ....
That sounds reasonable.
He also must have re-calculated his entire history at some point. From the Wayback Machine, Kentucky wasn't >35 before or after the 2015 tournament at the time. Where did you find Duke's 98 rating?
The way I see it..
Current locks for 1 seed
Michigan
Duke
Winner of Arizona/Houston->1 seed
Last 1 seed goes to: Loser of that game, UConn, Illinois, Iowa State…
It’s a 5 team race for 2 spots.
Right now, Houston and Arizona are neck and neck in the quality rankings, while Arizona is ahead in the resume rankings, so the committee would probably give them the edge. Not that they matter to the committee directly, but betting markets have Arizona's championship odds solidly ahead of Duke for #2, with Houston just behind Duke at #5. But with the game at Houston and Peat out, Houston is favored by 4.5pts. If Houston wins by about that much, it would benefit Houston a bit in the rankings, but not much, and it shouldn't really benefit either team if injuries are being taken into account.
A blowout either way would have more of a chance of helping clear out a 4th #1 seed, especially if Arizona blows out Houston since Houston is already trailing a bit and wouldn't have any injury excuse.
Getting a 1 seed lessens the likelihood of a path through Chicago so I'd rather we get the 2 seed. Michigan will likely have the upper edge on us for seeding and location placement so better to stay on the 2 line
I'll be rooting for Arizona, personally. I would rather they become slightly more entrenched on the 1 line than Houston improve their resume. Regardless of what happens in that game, I think it'll be hard for us to finish ahead of Arizona. But we can finish ahead of Houston.
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