Week of 2/2 Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#3      
IlliniwekKDR
Last (if you're not first, you're last)
John C Reilly Nyc GIF
 
#4      
Chad Fleck
This is my first one this year.

I had Illinois losing to UCLA and Michigan State, for those wondering.

1000001238.jpg
 
#6      
Chad Fleck
2qtslow said:
Michigan is 10-1 right now. You have them finishing 5-4. Not sure I can buy that.
Click to expand...
I have them losing:

@ Ohio State (Rivalry game, biggest surprise loss)
@ Purdue
@ Illinois
Home against Michigan State

They have scraped by in a lot of games.

Just my gut from today.
 
#8      
Fly Illini Fly!
Purdue, scUM, MSU, NEB path to 4 losses:

Purdue: loss @NEB, win all remaining games at Mackey

NEB: beat Purdue, lose 2/3 of @Iowa, @UCLA, @USC

MSU: lose @Purdue and one of the other games, beat Michigan (have a feeling this one could end up 5+ losses).

scUM: lose @Purdue, @IL, home MSU.

This path could’ve been a bit more reasonable had MSU won Friday. At the end of the day, it’s just MSU and scUM splitting, so the home teams winning is more feasible.
 
Last edited:
#9      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Purdue, scUM, MSU, NEB path to 4 losses:

Purdue: loss @NEB, win all remaining games at Mackey

NEB: beat Purdue, lose 2/3 of @Iowa, @UCLA, @USC

MSU: lose @Purdue and one of the other games, beat Michigan (have a feeling this one could end up 5+ losses).

scUM: lose @Purdue, @IL, home MSU.

This path could’ve been a bit more reasonable had MSU won Friday. At the end of the day, it is just MSU and scUM splitting, so the home teams winning is more feasible.
Click to expand...
I think we want MSU to have exactly four losses heading into their Michigan finale.

We’ll have to win the Michigan game regardless, but just in case we have four losses (say go 2-2 out of Wisconsin/Indiana/UCLA/USC), MSU can have that motivation of playing for the BT title.
 
#12      
21ChampaignSt
Outside of our own seeding, I'm starting to pay attention to Florida. They're currently projected as a 4/5. But for the last couple months, they've been playing more like a 1 or 2.

Whether it's a 1 meeting them as a 4/5 or a 2 meeting them as a 3, whoever gets them in the sweet 16 is going to feel like they've gotten screwed by the committee.
 
#14      
hooraybeer
21ChampaignSt said:
Outside of our own seeding, I'm starting to pay attention to Florida. They're currently projected as a 4/5. But for the last couple months, they've been playing more like a 1 or 2.

Whether it's a 1 meeting them as a 4/5 or a 2 meeting them as a 3, whoever gets them in the sweet 16 is going to feel like they've gotten screwed by the committee.
Click to expand...
there’s stop time for them to get a 1-2 seed. i think they are a two at worst by tourney time
 
#15      
LouHenson
Winning against MSU (assuming we don’t have any lapses and that includes USC and UCLA west coast swing) is important, but I am not sure critical? All the simulations seem to hing on us beating scUM twice to get the 1 seed (presumably in Chicago?) but? What if we were to beat MSU and everyone else but scUM in Champaign. Then we were to beat them in the BIG tourney which about a 100% chance of that being the finals? Would that do it for a 1? Or would they just pretend the final game has no meaning as always? Just curious what others think are possible paths to the STL - Chi route?

To me that is what we are playing for now? I think we are a 2 almost for sure?
 
#20      
Fighter of the Nightman
jrichisamazing said:
Roughly how bad would we have to finish to slip to a 4 seed?

Even if we finished 5-4 I think that would be enough for a 3?
Click to expand...
As others alluded to, it would depend a lot on what else happens around the nation and there are too many what if scenarios to really answer. With that said, these were the number of losses by top 4 seed since the 2022 Tournament when I did that analysis a couple weeks ago.

#1 Seed | Average of 4.5
3 - 2022 Arizona
3 - 2022 Gonzaga
3 - 2023 Houston
3 - 2024 Houston
3 - 2025 Duke
4 - 2024 UConn
4 - 2024 Purdue
4 - 2025 Florida
5 - 2023 Alabama
5 - 2023 Purdue
5 - 2025 Auburn
6 - 2022 Kansas
6 - 2022 Baylor
7 - 2023 Kansas
7 - 2024 North Carolina

#2 Seed | Average of 6.7
4 - 2025 St. John's (NY)
5 - 2022 Auburn
5 - 2023 UCLA
6 - 2022 Duke
6 - 2023 Arizona
6 - 2023 Marquette
6 - 2025 Michigan State
7 - 2022 Kentucky
7 - 2022 Villanova
7 - 2024 Iowa State
7 - 2025 Tennessee
8 - 2023 Texas
8 - 2024 Tennessee
8 - 2024 Arizona
8 - 2025 Alabama
9 - 2024 Marquette

#3 Seed | Average of 8.5
5 - 2023 Gonzaga
7 - 2022 Wisconsin
7 - 2022 Tennessee
7 - 2022 Purdue
8 - 2024 Illinois
8 - 2025 Texas Tech
9 - 2022 Texas Tech
9 - 2023 Kansas State
9 - 2023 Xavier
9 - 2024 Creighton
9 - 2024 Kentucky
9 - 2025 Iowa State
9 - 2025 Wisconsin
10 - 2023 Baylor
10 - 2024 Baylor
11 - 2025 Kentucky

#4 Seed | Average of 8.9
5 - 2022 Providence
7 - 2022 UCLA
7 - 2023 Virginia
7 - 2024 Auburn
8 - 2022 Arkansas
8 - 2023 UConn
8 - 2024 Duke
8 - 2025 Maryland
9 - 2022 Illinois
10 - 2023 Tennessee
10 - 2024 Kansas
10 - 2025 Texas A&M
11 - 2023 Indiana
11 - 2024 Alabama
11 - 2025 Purdue
12 - 2025 Arizona

I'll let someone else draw conclusions about those team's SOS, NET Rankings and other things that would affect their eventual seeds, but this is just trying to look at number of losses. We are 19-3, we have 9 remaining regular season games and likely 2 BTT games before Selection Sunday. Knock on wood and all, but I would be very, very surprised if this group drops the Northwestern home game, Oregon home game or Maryland away game. So, there are 6 "non-crazy" regular season loss opportunities, plus a BTT loss to get to 7. If we lost 7 more times, we would still only have 10 losses ... I can't see that being any worse than a #5 seed given our metrics and wins and that presumably none of the losses would be Quad 3 or worse.

If we are talking "realistically" or whatever and we assume we can avoid home losses to Wisconsin or Indiana, as well ... I think it's fair to say we are getting close to the point where our "realistic floor" would be near the border of a #3 and a #4 seed. That is what getting Quad 1A road wins like Purdue and Nebraska will do for ya!!
 
#21      
Fighter of the Nightman
As a follow-up on my previous post, this is a reminder of where we stand today:

Record: 19-3
NET Rank: #6
Road Record: 6-0
vs. Quad 1: 7-3
---> Including 5-3 vs. Quad 1A
vs. Quad 2: 3-0
vs. Quad 3: 2-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

And these are our remaining games by Quad category.

Quad 1A
vs. #3 Michigan
at #11 Michigan State

Other Quad 1
vs. #30 Indiana
at #44 UCLA
at #48 USC

Quad 2
vs. #41 Wisconsin
vs. #71 Northwestern

Quad 3
vs. #116 Oregon
at #170 Maryland

(1) Needless to say, we cannot drop either Quad 3 game, and I would argue this team has done enough to earn our trust in both ... so 21-3.
(2) While acknowledging none of the three will be "easy," I am also going to trust these guys to win our remaining home games vs. Indiana, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Do that, and we are sitting at 24-3 with no bad losses. A GREAT spot to be as you begin to dream big.
(3) I think the "axis" upon which our special season will teeter is still the West Coast trip. Both are Quad 1 opportunities vs. teams that I think we should beat and in two of the less intimidating arenas in the league. The UCLA game could even become Quad 1A by the end of the year if they are in the top 40. If we can sweep this trip, we really do give ourselves SO much more room for error in our "big two" remaining Quad 1A opportunities. If we are 26-3 counting the non-Michigan-school games, you could even conceivably lose BOTH and still have a shot at a #1 seed with only 5 losses if we make it to Saturday of the BTT.

That was a lot of typing to say the obvious, but our wins at Nebraska and Purdue were MASSIVE, period. We are in the driver's seat for a #1 seed and St. Louis/Chicago path in that we completely control our own destiny and no longer require upsets around the country to help us inch ahead of our other top seed competitors. Win either one of at MSU or vs. Michigan on top of not slipping up in the other games ... and a #1 seed is all but ours to lose, IMO. We could still end up a #2, sure, but man ... 27-4 to end the regular season in this year's Big Ten?? Hell of a resume...
 
#22      
thefalcon5
I think our problem getting a one seed is currently, Arizona, Michigan, and Duke having a quasi 2 or 3 game lead for three of the four one seed spots over us (hopefully I conveyed my thought properly).

Right now, UConn is the 4th 1 seed with their only loss coming to Arizona. Question: the committee does look at head to head when seeding, no? If that’s the case we’ve got an uphill battle to dethrone any of the “current” four seeds.

I suspect Arizona and Duke will maintain their dominance and with UConn considering the big east competition level they too are pretty darn close to locks.

That probably means dethroning Michigan. Which if we take care of business, is entirely possible. I’m not sure the big ten will support two one seeds barring a complete collapse from on of the aforementioned teams.
 
#24      
IlliniFan42
Illinialldayeveryday said:
If we get the top 2 seed doesn't even matter? Because if we get the last 1 then UConn is going to be the top 2 seed with us.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't want to get ahead of ourselves. If you're a 2-seed you play the 15 then the 7/10 then the 3/6/11/14 vs. a 1-seed playing a 16 then 8/9 then 4/5/12/13. In just that first game, your odds of being upset increase fivefold if you're facing the 15-seed instead of the 16-seed.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back