Week of 2/2 Bracketology

LouHenson said:

Winning against MSU (assuming we don’t have any lapses and that includes USC and UCLA west coast swing) is important, but I am not sure critical? All the simulations seem to hing on us beating scUM twice to get the 1 seed (presumably in Chicago?) but? What if we were to beat MSU and everyone else but scUM in Champaign. Then we were to beat them in the BIG tourney which about a 100% chance of that being the finals? Would that do it for a 1? Or would they just pretend the final game has no meaning as always? Just curious what others think are possible paths to the STL - Chi route?

To me that is what we are playing for now? I think we are a 2 almost for sure?

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I believe, and someone correct me if I am mistaken , that the Committee has said they always determine their number #1 seeds before any of the conference finals. For Us to get a #1 seed, with 3 losses, I believe we have to win the BIG outright

It has nothing to do with location. It has all to do with the opponent.

But either way, why speculate on where we would be in the bracket? We have at a minimum 10 more games to play. And the Boswell injury (as long as it isn't more than a month) has proven to be a slight blessing in disguise. When we have 5 players that are 6'6" or taller on the floor with the skills that our top players have, we are very difficult to both defend and to score on. We are a quicker team with Boswell on the floor and there are fewer defensive switches when he is guarding the opposition ball handler.

This team continues to get better. The question is how do we handle real adverstity (and I wouldn't be surprised to get an extra large serving of adversity when we go to East Lansing or Pauley Pavillion)? That will be the test of where this team is. Thus far, how could anyone argue with the tenacity, style of play and most of all results?

Chad Fleck said:

This is my first one this year.

I had Illinois losing to UCLA and Michigan State, for those wondering.

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I don't see a world where Michigan finishes 5th. Would be nice but they are a wagon.

Illinialldayeveryday said:

If we get the top 2 seed doesn't even matter? Because if we get the last 1 then UConn is going to be the top 2 seed with us.

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Illini2010-11 said:

It is all about location, location, location and matchups at this point.

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Exactly. Does it matter as far as our on-paper path? I guess not that much. However - and this is JMO - it would be an absolute team to have a team this special NOT get to capitalize on such a lucky potential St. Louis/Chicago/Indianapolis path. And to feel good about that, I do think we'd have to be a #1 seed. We could definitely get it as a non-#1 seed, but I believe others have pointed out that it really hurts our odds that the Big Ten would have multiple other top 3 seed teams that might cause us to need to be shifted to another region.

And you would rather face 8/9 vs a 7 and etc.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Exactly. Does it matter as far as our on-paper path? I guess not that much. However - and this is JMO - it would be an absolute team to have a team this special NOT get to capitalize on such a lucky potential St. Louis/Chicago/Indianapolis path. And to feel good about that, I do think we'd have to be a #1 seed. We could definitely get it as a non-#1 seed, but I believe others have pointed out that it really hurts our odds that the Big Ten would have multiple other top 3 seed teams that might cause us to need to be shifted to another region.

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I think we would have to fall to at least the 3 seed (and probably the 4 seed) to get to go to Chicago with scUM if we are not the 1 seed. No way would the BIG want its two best teams (1 seeded scUM and the highest 2 seeded UI) in the same regional. If we don’t get “perceived” in front of scUM look for STL to Washington with Puke as the 1 seed.

LouHenson said:

I think we would have to fall to at least the 3 seed (and probably the 4 seed) to get to go to Chicago with scUM if we are not the 1 seed. No way would the BIG want its two best teams (1 seeded scUM and the highest 2 seeded UI) in the same regional. If we don’t get “perceived” in front of scUM look for STL to Washington with Puke as the 1 seed.

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Give me the CBS bracket right now - 2 seed with Iowa state as the 1…

Illini2010-11 said:

It is all about location, location, location and matchups at this point.

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Chad Fleck said:

This is my first one this year.

I had Illinois losing to UCLA and Michigan State, for those wondering.

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Question:

Why is the B1G so hard headed? I mean, one of two ways makes SO MUCH more sense. Either the top 16 make the tourney, leaving out the bottom two, or have four games the first night, and then do a 16 team tourney to find the winner? That way you can be done by Selection Sunday and you don't freakin' wear your best teams out for the Big Dance?

LouHenson said:

I think we would have to fall to at least the 3 seed (and probably the 4 seed) to get to go to Chicago with scUM if we are not the 1 seed. No way would the BIG want its two best teams (1 seeded scUM and the highest 2 seeded UI) in the same regional. If we don’t get “perceived” in front of scUM look for STL to Washington with Puke as the 1 seed.

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Serious question: Why should the NCAA care what the B1G wants?

2qtslow said:

Serious question: Why should the NCAA care what the B1G wants?

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Let’s just say that the BIG is pretty important to the NCAA - they would have a say in a decision that put its two top seeds in the same region. There is probably some rule against it much like the old rules of you could not play a conference opponent until the regional finals. Yes that was a rule before the conferences got so big that you could not actually do that rule.

Anyways, you are fooling yourself if you don’t think the big conferences don’t have some say in how their teams are paired?

WizardBill said:

Question:

Why is the B1G so hard headed? I mean, one of two ways makes SO MUCH more sense. Either the top 16 make the tourney, leaving out the bottom two, or have four games the first night, and then do a 16 team tourney to find the winner? That way you can be done by Selection Sunday and you don't freakin' wear your best teams out for the Big Dance?

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1) Either of these proposals require the top teams to play 4 games in 4 days. That is hard to recover from, even for 20 year old kids. One of the goals when byes were introduced was to take some of the load off the top teams prior to the NCAA tournament.

2) Both physical restrictions and TV revenue goals push for 4 games a day. A venue can only host 4 games/day. BTN, who airs the early rounds doesn't want simultaneous games.

Working backwards, eliminating 17 teams requires 17 games.
Last day: championship (1 game)
Prior day: semis (2 games)
That leaves 14 games in the prior days. That certainly looks like 2, 4, 4, 4.

One could drop the bottom 2 teams and save a days worth of games. This is 2 games less of BTN revenue, and the teams involved are unlikely to make it past day 2. Does it hurt to have essentially 2 play in games for that years bottom feeders?

I'd say no, unless the entire tournament is moved forward a day so that the championship is Sat vs Sun. I can't see that happening for financial reasons. The BTT championship game is a huge money maker, partially because of the timing. It is aired on CBS right before the bracket announcements without any competing broadcasts.

There are rules about teams from the same conference meeting in the early rounds, but I find it hard to believe the tournament pairing crew calls conference reps for approval of possible late round pairings as part of their decision making process.

Not what I am saying. Look back over the past few years (so it is a fair comparison - the conferences are bigger). You will not see the top 1,2,3 seeds in the same region. It does not make sense to pair conference teams against each other - some of it can’t be avoided, but I guarantee you it is taken into consideration with the top teams. Believe what you want, but your simply wrong?

Well this is what the NCAA rules say about it? Perhaps, and mind you it was you that suggested somebody is calling the BIG that obviously is not what I said? Anyways, you are incorrect on this and it makes total sense why?

Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

I’m not sure how many more times I’m going to have to post this in this thread.

Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, MSU and Purdue would all be top 4 seeds if the season ended today. The 4 highest ranked of the 5 would all be placed into different regions. The 5th team would go into whatever region by where they fall on the seed list, also making sure to follow other rules of the bracket.

LouHenson said:

Let’s just say that the BIG is pretty important to the NCAA - they would have a say in a decision that put its two top seeds in the same region. There is probably some rule against it much like the old rules of you could not play a conference opponent until the regional finals. Yes that was a rule before the conferences got so big that you could not actually do that rule.

Anyways, you are fooling yourself if you don’t think the big conferences don’t have some say in how their teams are paired?

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I don't have the stats right in front of me, but the BTT Championship on Sunday (which is on CBS right before the Selection Show) is regularly one of the most viewed college hoops games every year. As a general rule of thumb, a "big audience" for a non-NCAA Tournament college hoops game is over 1 million and over 2 million is huge. IIRC, the Illinois/OSU BTT Championship in 2021 topped out at over 6 million viewers when it went into OT and people were starting to tune in for the Selection Show. Given every other conference is done playing, I'm sure the Big Ten sees that exposure as hard to give up.

Logistically in terms of non-TV reasons, of course, it's an incredibly stupid setup.

Yes I was trying to explain that to quarts low, but he seemed to think somebody from the NCAA was running to talk to the BIG. My point stands, simply Illinois has to get in front of Michigan (most likely) to get Chicago. I think they have STL now. But NO way are scUM and UI in the Midwest region together. Not going to happen.

I think if suUM were to lose only to us at home the rest of the year, and we run the table. Then if scUM and the Illini were to play on the finals of the BTT - this year, under these circumstances it would be for the 1 seed. Winner would get slotted to Chicago as the 1 and the other would be either a 1 in another region (accounting if say AZ, Duke, UConn faulted in the regular season), or the loser is a 2 seed in another region. I really believe given what would be both like 30-3 teams that game would have to mean something?

The Fonz said:

I don't see a world where Michigan finishes 5th. Would be nice but they are a wagon.

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I feel like this is the 3rd time I've seen that phrase in the last couple days.... did you post that phrase multiple times, or is that a new saying? I'm old, yes; and I get what it means, but it's new to me.

Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
ACC - Duke (1)
B12 - Arizona (2)
B1G - Michigan (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (5)
BE - UConn (7)
SEC - Florida (12)
A10 - Saint Louis (16)
MW - Utah State (26)
American - Tulsa (46)
MAC - Miami-OH (64)
MVC - Belmont (58)
SLnd - McNeese (60)
Ivy - Yale (63)
CUSA - Liberty (74)
BSth - High Point (82)
WAC - Utah Valley (88)
BW - Hawaii (92)
CAA - UNCW (98)
Summit - St. Thomas (117)
SoCon - ETSU (119)
Horz - Oakland (120)
SB - Marshall (132)
BSky - Portland St. (135)
ASun - Austin Peay (148)
MAAC - Marist (150)
OVC - UT Martin (166)
Pat - Navy (169)
NEC - LIU (183)
AEast - Vermont (214)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (243)
MEAC - Howard (250)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa St., Houston, Michigan St., Purdue, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Virginia, UCF, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Clemson, North Carolina, Auburn, St. John's, Kentucky, Villanova, Iowa, Texas A&M, Louisville, SMU, USC, Wisconsin, Saint Mary's, Indiana, NC State, New Mexico, George Mason, Georgia, Miami FL, UCLA, Oklahoma St., Santa Clara

Just missed: California, Seton Hall, Missouri, Ohio St., San Diego St, Virginia Tech, Texas, VCU, Washington, Nevada

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Michigan (+1)
1 (1). Arizona (-1)
3 (1). Duke (+0)
4 (1). Iowa St. (+3)
5 (2). Houston (+1)
6 (2). Illinois (-2)
7 (2). UConn (+1)
8 (2). Purdue (+2)
9 (3). Florida (+4)
10 (3). Gonzaga (-1)
11 (3). Michigan St. (-6)
12 (3). Nebraska (-1)
13 (4). Vanderbilt (-1)
14 (4). Kansas (+1)
15 (4). Louisville (+3)
16 (4). Virginia (-2)
17 (5). Tennessee (+4)
18 (5). BYU (-2)
19 (5). Texas Tech (-2)
20 (5). Iowa (+0)
21 (6). Alabama (-2)
22 (6). Saint Louis (+1)
23 (6). St. John's (+1)
24 (6). Arkansas (-2)
25 (7). NC State (+0)
26 (7). North Carolina (+0)
27 (7). Auburn (+0)
28 (7). Indiana (NEW)
29 (8). Clemson (-1)
30 (8). Utah St. (-1)
31 (8). Texas A&M (+1)
32 (8). Villanova (-2)
33 (9). Kentucky (-2)
34 (9). SMU (-1)
35 (9). St. Mary's (+0)
36 (9). Wisconsin (+1)
37 (10). Georgia (-3)
38 (10). Santa Clara (NEW)
39 (10). Miami FL (-1)
40 (10). UCLA (-1)
41 (11). New Mexico (+0)
42 (11*). UCF (-2)
43 (11*). USC (+0)
44 (11). Tulsa (+0)
45 (11). Belmont (+2)
46 (12*). Oklahoma St. (NEW)
47 (12). McNeese (+1)
48 (12). Yale (-3)
49 (12). Miami OH (+0)
50 (12*). George Mason (+0)
51 (13). Liberty (+1)
52 (13). Utah Valley (+2)
53 (13). Hawaii (+0)
54 (13). High Point (-3)
55 (14). UNCW (NEW)
56 (14). St. Thomas (+1)
57 (14). ETSU (NEW)
58 (14). Oakland (+0)
59 (15). Marshall (NEW)
60 (15). Portland St. (+0)
61 (15). Austin Peay (NEW)
62 (15). Marist (-1
63 (16). UT Martin (+1)
64 (16). Navy (-1)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Vermont (+0)
67 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (+0)
68 (16*). Howard (+0)

Last 4 out: Texas, Ohio St., San Diego St., Washington
Next 4 out: Seton Hall, Akron, LSU, California

Notes:

- Illinois didn't drop so much as Iowa State and Houston dominated their weeks to move up in efficiency.
- George Mason's resume is slowly slipping, now just 5 teams over the cut line.
- Indiana finally did enough to get on the bid line! Ohio State slipped just out off contention. Washington is also here!

We shouldn’t worry about our seeding.,
If we have a healthy 8 man rotation , this is our year to win it all.
We won’t have a chance like this one for another 10 years.
Your table is ready, Underwood.

lstewart53x3 said:

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Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

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TBH, I agree. And it's why I think we'll have trouble moving up to a 1 unless we can beat Michigan and have a de facto "tiebreaker" over them.

They are just a huge, deep team that I could easily see winning the natty this year, and still are favorites to win the conference IMO.

lstewart53x3 said:

View attachment 47152View attachment 47153

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

Click to expand...

Interesting placement by Lunardi. A 2 seed and getting St. Louis as the 7 in the STL pod would be nightmare fuel inducing. That team is very good- can shoot the absolute lights out. I would not want any part of that 2nd round matchup, especially in their own backyard. And it's not that I don't trust our guys, but that's the type of midmajor where if they get hot, they can go nuclear. Solid defense as well.