Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Iowa State beat Iowa in Ames, not at a neutral site. Which makes your point stronger!
Week of 2/2 Bracketology
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that big 12 home stretch is gonna get nasty! this is why I really wanted MSU to have beaten Michigan. Arizona, Iowa State and Houston in theory could beat each other up. with Duke and uconn essentially locked into 1 seeds, we need really just be ahead of Michigan to get what we want.... sadly they have a step ahead of us. for now.
really hope Duke and uconn slip up as well
Horrible out of bounds call in that game on the final possession. Iowa got hosed.
You need to stop they do not.
Northwestern still remains #69 in the NET despite the onslaught.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Unlike KenPom, I believe NET updates next day.
Yeah you’re right. There’s no reason we should be behind Gonzaga lol.
Michigan's signature wins aging like milk.
The official NCAA NET page hasn't updated yet, but according to Warren Nolan, we're up to 4 in NET. However, our beat down of the Wildcats caused our win in Evanston to slip to Q2.
They're top 10 in result based metrics and top 5 in predictive metrics. 5 Quad One wins (@ Purdue, Neutral vs. St. John's, Home vs. Iowa, @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma State). KP has them 6th in both Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense (good for 4th overall).
Fact: Northwestern hasn't scored a point in over 8 hours.Defense up to 19th as of this morning
Was so good yesterday it kept going up overnight lol
Reality is adjustments made based on opponents changes from other game results (like Iowa-Washington).
Here I thought the fact I used was enough indication that I was also being silly.
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
I would never want to debate you on anything factual as you're crazy good at this. My 60+ years watching it says we can't get there as anything other than the top 1 seed coming out of the BIG. You brought up a scenario that is possible, both Michigan and Illinois end up number 1 seeds? If this were to happen, it would only mean we either beat Michigan in Champaign, but lost to them in the BTT, but under this scenario we would almost certainly be a 2 seed in another region from Michigan.Okay one more thing RE: getting the Chicago Regional ... something I care deeply about both because I think it would really help our team's chances and because I could actually maybe attend!! I like to have some Illini-centric reason to have a rooting interest in all games I watch, so...
... Let's ignore the possibility that the Committee would hesitate to "protect" #2 seed Illinois with a Chicago Regional because it would be a perceived raw deal for a #1 seed. What other considerations could shift us out of Chicago, and how should we be rooting to prevent that? The obvious answer is just to keep winning, get a #1 seed and be the highest-seeded Big Ten team. Simple enough.
However, what are the scenarios where we could be anything less than that and still get Chicago? It seems like the least likely scenario is the current one - where Michigan remains a #1 seed and we remain a very high #2 seed. Is there ANY possibility a #2 seed Illinois gets into Chicago, or would it take a total cannibalization of Big Ten teams down the stretch?
So your question, can we get Chicago as a 2 seed? I think it is a very long shot? Several BIG teams would need to be 2 seeds under this scenario including Michigan. If Michigan is a 1 and no other team in the BIG is a 1, Michigan will get Chicago.
If Illinois were to slip to a 3 seed (not one of the protected top 4 from the conference) - pretty much like Purdue is now - then yes very much we could get Chicago. In fact, Purdue is trending that way now?
The only other way I see it is if Arizona, Duke, Uconn start losing some to allow for 2 BIG #1 seeds. Problem here is we still need to get in front of Michigan, which pretty much leads to the same thing as us beating scUM both at home and in the BTT? Could everyone start losing and all this change? Yes, but your analytical stills would tell me little chance in that?
Really curious to see what you come up with? Funny thing is my Masters is in Statistics (from Purdue sorry), but I am not in the same league as you and the young people doing all this analysis now. Old age is a B..tch lol
Yes but they have more signature wins than illinois still
Chicago would be nice
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
They have 3 Q1A wins:
Gonzaga
Nebraska
@MSU
We have 4 Q1A wins:
@Purdue
@Nebraska
@Iowa
Tennessee
UM has
Auburn neutral
Zaga neutral
USC home (is this signature?)
NE home
@MSU
We have
TT neutral
TN neutral
@IA
@Purdue
@NE
I think who has more signature wins is debatable, and after the past two weeks, I'd say it's us.
edit - basically the same as what @21ChampaignSt said.
If we beat MSU in East Lansing I think we have a very very very real case for a #1 seed over Michigan, UConn or Duke. If strength of record & the metrics and wins away from home… I think we are in a better spot than all of them.
I figured that would happen but we can make that up with a Q1A this weekend.
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
If you really look at scUM's record they beat Nebby at home and an average Gonzaga (albeit to death) on a neutral floor, and @MSU. Is that better than:
@Nebby, @Iowa, @Purdue, neutral Tenn and Home for TT? I think we have a better resume, but the computers don't? We need to pummel scUM
@Nebby, @Iowa, @Purdue, neutral Tenn and Home for TT? I think we have a better resume, but the computers don't? We need to pummel scUM
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