Sweet 16 will be tough to get to. Last year with a much higher seed we didn't really see anyone until Iowa State.
Week of 2/24 Bracketology
- Status
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
That would likely require also getting to at least the BTT semi-finals. The current brackets project about an 8 seed (maybe a 7). The team has a floor of about a 9 seed losing out and probably an 7/8 seed with one more win. I really can't see jumping 3 seed lines by winning out regular season and not having a deep run in the BTT.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Also FWIW, here is the Quad classification of our potential Big Ten opponents in the BTT. Everyone is at least a Quad 2 opponent as of today.
Quad 1
#11 Wisconsin
#13 Maryland
#15 Michigan State
#19 Purdue
#21 Michigan
#26 UCLA
#32 Oregon
#35 Ohio State
Quad 2
#53 Nebraska
#56 Indiana
#67 Iowa
#69 Penn State
#72 USC
#74 Rutgers
#96 Minnesota
#99 Washington
Quad 1
#11 Wisconsin
#13 Maryland
#15 Michigan State
#19 Purdue
#21 Michigan
#26 UCLA
#32 Oregon
#35 Ohio State
Quad 2
#53 Nebraska
#56 Indiana
#67 Iowa
#69 Penn State
#72 USC
#74 Rutgers
#96 Minnesota
#99 Washington
For the BTT I feel like we are going to get stuck in the 8/9 against Indiana. Of course it’s a sleepy noon weekday game in Indianapolis. Gross.
That phantom call on the block ruined the end of that game. Incredible defensive play by the Samford kid should have given them the ball back down 1 with 14 seconds left.
Would have been an incredible run by them to close that out and win that game.
The only way to rationalize that is we have been sick and injured much of the past two months and the bubble is super weak. Showing up now and winning means we are good when healthy and have a little rest. A 6 would be amazing right now. NW and Nebraska letdowns are killer here.
We are pretty much locked in to playing tOSU, IU, or Nebraska. We either want tOSU for the guaranteed Q1 game, or maybe Nebraska/IU can jump into that Q1 range.
If we lose out can we be on the 10 line?
We have not had the regular season we would have wanted. The Tennessee Northwestern and Nebraska games could have easily been wins. If those would have been wins would that change how you currently view the team
To me we are a good team who will be a dangerous team in the tournament. In the past when we made the tournament after an average season it would be hard to see a run in March
With this team we could lose first round or catch fire because we have the talent and shown what we are capable of against good teams
To me we are a good team who will be a dangerous team in the tournament. In the past when we made the tournament after an average season it would be hard to see a run in March
With this team we could lose first round or catch fire because we have the talent and shown what we are capable of against good teams
. . . and I think the Illini will advance.
Based on the Hackman projection Dan posted earlier, I think the Illini have an outside shot at a 5 seed in the BTT if Purdue and UCLA lose 2 of their last 3 with one of Purdue's losses coming against us. We'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of them and even if Oregon is tied with the same amount of losses as us and the other 2, all 3 would have head-to-head over the Ducks.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Not to mention they seem to be playing better . . .
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agree in most respects, but FWIW when we last played them in Indy in the 2022 BTT (and admittedly lost), the crowd was genuinely about a 50/50 split.
And yet they had to fight to the wire at home against a Penn State team that is likely not even making the tournament. Indiana is who they have played like the whole season, not what they were projected to be. I’d have no worries against that dysfunctional group at all honesty.
Yep. Indiana fans historically don't travel all that well to the BTT, even when it's in Indy. Regardless, an Indiana matchup isn't the worst matchup we can get in my opinion. Woodson's still the coach after all.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
The problem, and a lot of die hard fans keep ignoring this, is that we are too inconsistent for a lose one and go home tournament.
We have our catch fire hot streaks, but they tend to last 20 minutes, not 5 or 6 consecutive games.
Odds are 50/50 we win one game in the NCAA. Odds are infinitely small we win two.
Solution... Don't shoot a lot of the 3s and focus on defense. I know it's crazy but it just might work.... But only if we were like one of the tallest teams in the NCAA. If only
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
Pretty on the nose description of our current situation:
My favorite quote “… jacking up threes like perimeter shots are the air they need in order to breathe.”
My favorite quote “… jacking up threes like perimeter shots are the air they need in order to breathe.”
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That was funny. I'm still shocked by if Illinois shots 27% from 3 they are 14-2.... My goodness that's really not a high bar to shoot from 3 and as they point out we haven't done it a lot considering we have played 29 games
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
I have the Illini being an 8 seed in the BTT, based on my projections working through this beautifully basic tool:
I was hoping it would come out as a 7 seed.
I was hoping it would come out as a 7 seed.
I think a lot depends on match ups. I think a physical taller team gives us problems. If we get past the first round the bracket could be favorable depending on upsets
We normally don’t have that luck
IMO we don't want that happening. It would most likely cause us to miss out on a Q1 opportunity in the first game
If we beat Michigan and Purdue ...that's two Q1 wins. That would be optimal.
- Status