Fred's emotion chip activated - it would be hilarious for Nebby to tie this up somehow.
Week of 2/5 Games Thread
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Thank you, Providence and Michigan.
Mizzou 0-10 in the SEC
Gotta assume we will win our games. We need to beat Purdue to be the best, simple as that
It doesn't, is my point.
In the BTT, the only things to care about are avoiding bad losses or maximizing wins. Basically, staying away from the 4-seed. This implies that you are equally nervous about getting bumped by somebody else, like Northwestern. I'm not. I don't care if we are the #2 or #3, and if we aren't, that's very much on us.
It means even less for the NCAAs. Set aside everything about matchups and seeding being a crapshoot. Let's pretend like seeding matters, because in some narrow instances - such as being a #4 vs. #5 - it does. So, Illinois will be seeded based upon their body of work. Nobody else's. Wisconsin dropping in seeding only directly affects the numerical seed that Illinois gets if:
1) The two teams are already close in seeding
2) The two team are so close in seeding that Illinois leapfrogs Wisconsin
3) Illinois was the highest ranked of their seed (say, the best #5) and skips up one group higher
There are other niche situations regarding conference teams and regional selections, but man... that's an obscure thing to worry about. Generally, our resume isn't helped or hurt much by other conference games, because they are mostly a wash. Now, if the B10 had a sparkling non-con, parity among the top half of teams could get boosted by upsets. However, the conference is not strong overall, and Michigan is not going to masquerade as a quality loss, besides (even with their Quad 1 OOC win). From here on out, what will help our ranking the most is the conference feeding us quad 1 games or generally remaining top-heavy.
Put as simply as I can:
There is no #3 seed reserved for the 2nd place Big Ten team, and there are plenty of #3 seeds to go around. And #5 seeds. We want the B10 to earn #3 seeds.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Tominaga-San is going to score only 2 points tonight after dropping 31 on the Beloved.
Self fulfilling prophecy tonight
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Only Fairleigh elite.
It seems the basic point is that when teams near us or above us in the rankings lose it gives us a better chance for a high seed in the NCAA. It's that simple, and in this case that means Wisconsin losing helps in that regard. Put another way, the chances of them finishing ahead of us in the final rankings is less likely now.
That's one way to look at it.
Increased chance: Illinois getting a #4 with Wisconsin getting a #5
Decreased chance: Illinois and/or Wisconsin getting a #3
Some will say that "helps", but I disagree.
Ending up within a few spots of Wisconsin is a possibility.
Michigan dragging the top of the conference down a with this upset is a near-certainty.
I see your point. But in no world do I see a team that is considered in front of us on a seed line losing to Michigan as anything but good. We totally control our own destiny and the #1 way to earn a better seed is to simply win our games… but it is 10 times out of 10 better for us when teams seeded around where we are at or want to be at (Wisconsin, Creighton for example) lose games…. A Wisconsin win does nothing for their seeding, but a loss hurts them while we don’t even have to do anything! Yay! The years we’ve been on the “bubble” were we not rooting for the other bubble teams to lose?
& it’s not like our road game at Wisconsin no longer becomes a Quad 1 win… they’d have to fall (this is a guess) 60-70 spots? Not gonna happen… Maybe it’s the difference between quad 1A or just quad 1 but hey, if we can leapfrog someone I’m personally all for it!
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Wisconsin losing to Michigan in no way decreases our chances at a 3 seed. None.
Michigan fans stormed the court - all three of them - but no one noticed.
All the hairsplitting about seeding is kinda weird, given the fact that we live in a #16-beating-#1 world, last year's F4 were 4, 5, 5, & 9, and the old adage that "it's all about matchups."
Plus I'm superstitious, so hand-wringing about the importance of getting that 3 over a 4, etc., just jinx-guarantees that we'll be the 3 that has to face a 6 in Rd.2 who's one of the hottest team coming into the tournament 100 miles from their campus, instead of a 5 who played like manure the last 3 weeks and flew cross country. (Or 100x worse, we end up playing the 11 who was in one of the first-four games but got their sniper back from injury for their conference tourney and he's been shooting 47% from 3 and they're poised for a run like UCLA a few years ago.)
(I shouldn't have said any of this! Dangit!)
Plus I'm superstitious, so hand-wringing about the importance of getting that 3 over a 4, etc., just jinx-guarantees that we'll be the 3 that has to face a 6 in Rd.2 who's one of the hottest team coming into the tournament 100 miles from their campus, instead of a 5 who played like manure the last 3 weeks and flew cross country. (Or 100x worse, we end up playing the 11 who was in one of the first-four games but got their sniper back from injury for their conference tourney and he's been shooting 47% from 3 and they're poised for a run like UCLA a few years ago.)
(I shouldn't have said any of this! Dangit!)
Say it as loudly and confidently as you want, but it doesn't make it true.
We control our own destiny within the Big Ten. We do not control our own destiny in the NET.
Though conference games are largely a wash, it's not some perfect balance. If the top teams in our conference start looking mediocre, that affects us, too.
No, you're right. It really doesn't matter. Hoping for a certain team to lose in February so you can beat some other team in March is piling crapshoots upon crapshoots.
I was strictly referring to NCAA seeding. BTT- I want a top 4 seed for the double bye and ideally avoid Purdue side of bracket. I implied that their resume is better and that it would help us pass them on the seed list. They have 3 more Q1 wins that us currently and this is their first Q3/4 loss. We are also in danger of losing the @OSU win being bumped down as well as home vs MSU. That would leave us with 1 Q1 win(FAU). Obviously there are more opportunities the rest of the season. I don’t remember saying anything about a spot reserved for anyone so not sure what you’re implying there. Yes, our spot is improved by winning games and also by other teams losing games. Our NET is obviously not changed by this result, but Wisconsin’s will drop from this. It doesn’t matter that they’re a B10 team to me. I’m cheering for all teams rated above us to lose and even those slightly below us, especially Midwest teams. We still have a chance to play in Indy and Wisconsin is a team we would need to be above to play there. I’ll be cheering for St. John’s over Marquette on Saturday for the same reason.
To reference some of your other posts in this thread-yes the tournament is a crapshoot with matchups etc. But having a top seed increases your chances of playing longer in the tournament. If you don’t think there’s a difference between being a 2/3 seed in Indy vs a 4 seed in Spokane, then I don’t know what else I can say to convince you.
Further evidence that seeding matters:
BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?
March Madness: What are the odds? A tool for bracketologists.
Sorry for the long post! I’m fine if you still disagree with me but just wanted to share why I felt this way about tonight’s game.
I mean, it is 100% true that Wisconsin losing in no way decreases our chances of getting a 3 seed.
We play Wisconsin 1 time. Their results impact us as much as FAU, Marquette, Tennessee, etc.
Your last statement is patently false. There are dozens of articles on the committee's selection process and what is on the team sheets that the committee sees and "strength of the top of the conference" is certainly not one of them.
Lots empty seats.Mizzou 0-10 in the SEC
except in the computer ratings.
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
I just don’t know what to think of Creighton. They might be the toughest team to figure out in America this season. Every time I feel like they are a legit dark horse Final Four team, they suddenly lose the plot defensively. Their games sure are entertaining, though.
But I’m sure there is a Creighton fan sitting somewhere thinking the exact same thing about Illinois……
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This is something to keep an eye on. We really struggle to keep quick PGs in front of us and to chase the three point line.Tominaga-San is going to score only 2 points tonight after dropping 31 on the Beloved.
A lot of people are sarcastic during the game threads saying "shocking, another player having a career day against us".
This is not a tongue in cheek situation now. It's a problem and it was last year as well. Have to figure that out. Can't have that happen in a one and done.
uofi7477
- Silver & Gold Vandals
Not as old as me though as I consider Petty just a Byrds knockoff.Nah... too easy.
I'm guessing you have the entirety of side 2 of Long After Dark in mind:
We Stand a Chance
Straight Into Darkness
The Same Old You
Between Two Worlds
A Wasted Life
That tells you how old I am.
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