Week of 3/10 Bracketology

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#151      
Bigtex
Piotyr said:
Then Lunardi found something between 4pm and 7pm that he liked about BYU more than Illinois. You can tell this from the arrows next to the team name, the down arrow means Illinois was dropped to a 6 and the up means BYU was bumped up to a 5.

Maybe he was just avoiding a conference second round matchup (the 4 and 5 seeds are like half B1G teams).
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Hard to say!!! seems like having one update at the end or start of each day would work
 
#152      
Rez
Piotyr said:
Then Lunardi found something between 4pm and 7pm that he liked about BYU more than Illinois. You can tell this from the arrows next to the team name, the down arrow means Illinois was dropped to a 6 and the up means BYU was bumped up to a 5.

Maybe he was just avoiding a conference second round matchup (the 4 and 5 seeds are like half B1G teams).
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Yea something is off. His last update at 810 on ESPN's website says Illinois is a 6.
His last update on twitter has Illinois as a 5. And that says 8:15 in the top left corner.
 

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#157      
OrangeBlue98
Or he doesn't know his backside from a hole in the ground and has no clue what he's doing. When it comes to Lunardi, that's always a possibility. It's probably a good thing he's the first of his kind doing this kind of thing, because otherwise he'd never be able to keep a job at it given how I'd trust a blind man throwing darts at a list of teams over him.
 
#158      
21ChampaignSt
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
 
#159      
BalloonsTheElephant
21ChampaignSt said:
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
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I've been torn on the 5 seed/6 seed debate. I think we can play with any of the 2/3s. The 1s are so strong, it's a lower probability we make it past the Sweet 16. However, I am happy with a Sweet 16 appearance and then it's all for fun after that.
 
#160      
OrangeBlue98
21ChampaignSt said:
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
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I do get your point, but I still think this tournament is all about matchups. Once you get past Duke and maybe Auburn and Houston, I think you can toss everyone else down to the 6 seeds into a mixer and really not have that much separation between the teams. It's then about matchups and who is playing well on a given day.

For Illinois, I think two types of teams give them a lot of trouble.
1) Teams that have good positional size coupled with above-average athleticism (Duke is obviously Exhibit A).
2) Teams that get after it on the offensive glass and can extend possessions.

For example, and I'll continue to say this, I'd do a cartwheel if I saw an Illinois-Drake matchup in the first round. All credit to Ben McCollum and what he's done at Drake this season (and I've watched them live this season as well), but Illinois against Drake is a fantastic matchup for our team. Drake's tallest player is 6-8, which is Will Riley's height. They have no one who can guard Ivisic, and KJ has a significant size advantage at the point. Meanwhile, Drake's best player is Bennett Stirtz, and Boswell would draw him. Drake could make a run against other 6 or 7 seeds, but I think they are an awful matchup against Illinois.

Get past a tough matchup, and I feel like it's then mostly dependent on how Illinois plays on a given day. They could easily make an Elite 8 run with the right matchups and playing well. But they could also play one of those types mentioned above and really struggle in the 2nd round.
 
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#161      
Thaillini22
21ChampaignSt said:
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
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What is up with this?! :)
 
#162      
OrangeBlue98
Thaillini22 said:
What is up with this?! :)
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It's more like this:

5-1, 5-2, 5-3, and 5-4 are the five seeds (16 through 20 if we are looking at a 1-"64" bracket seeding)

6-1, 6-2, 6-3, and 6-4 would be the six seeds from top to bottom (think of this as 6-1 being the 21st seed and 6-4 being the 24th seed).

7-1, 7-2, 7-3, and 7-4 are the 7 seeds (25 through 28)

So if you are a 6-2, you're two steps away from a five seed (22nd seed to 20th seed)

You're three steps from a 7-1 seed (22nd seed to 25th seed).

I got confused with the decimals as well, but once I replaced decimals with hyphens this made a lot more sense.
 
#163      
RollChief
Thaillini22 said:
What is up with this?! :)
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If you track bracket matrix, each team's seed (assuming they're not a bubble team) is based on the average of 100 published brackets (there may be some weighting system, not sure), so the seed usually lands on a decimal number. Illinois' is currently 6.17 as of this morning.

So, to @21ChampaignSt 's point, if you're between two whole numbers, you're more likely to be seeded with the whole number before the decimal (Saint Mary's is 5.9 and considered a 5 seed, whereas Gonzaga is 7.83 but an 8 seed, so this varies).
 
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#166      
Thaillini22
RollChief said:
If you track bracket matrix, each team's seed (assuming they're not a bubble team) is based on the average of 100 published brackets (there may be some weighting system, not sure), so the seed usually lands on a decimal number. Illinois' is currently 6.17 as of this morning.

So, to @21ChampaignSt 's point, if you're between two whole numbers, you're more likely to be seeded with the whole number before the decimal (Saint Mary's is 5.9 and considered a 5 seed, whereas Gonzaga is 7.83 but an 8 seed, so this varies).
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Ahhhh, i see. Thanks, it was doing my head in thinking that 62 is actually closer to 50 than 70.
 
#167      
CleverHandle1
21ChampaignSt said:
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
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Reads good, my friend!
 
#168      
21ChampaignSt
Thaillini22 said:
What is up with this?! :)
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Haha it was just a callback to the game thread discussion. But I actually mean it in a slightly different way.

In the other thread, 6.2 meant the second best 6 seed. However, on Bracket Matrix, our average seed right now is a 6.17. The average seed of the worst 5 seed is a 5.9 and the average seed of the best 7 seed is a 6.59. So, at 6.17 (6.2) we're closer to 5.9 than 6.59 - thus closer to a 5 than a 7.
 
#170      
Second place is 1st loser
21ChampaignSt said:
Up to 14 in NET
A 6 on Bracket Matrix, but closer to a 5 than a 7. (Call it a 6.2)

I expect us to pass Arizona in NET and jockey with Purdue for that 13/14 spot.

I think a 4 seed is still fully in play but I also think OSU losing limits our upside just a little bit and makes it a touch harder to get a 4.

Finally, I had just been hoping for the best seed possible. But after reading the board, you guys had me thinking that a 6 seed might be better than a 4 or 5. However, I'm back to Team Best Seed Possible. The quality of teams we'd have to play in the first weekend as a 6 seed is noticeably higher than as a 4 or a 5. Give me the easiest path to a S16 and then let's see how it shakes out.
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A 6 seed is significantly better than a 4 or 5. There is a CLEAR gap between the teams on the one line and seeds 2-6. Yes, the first and second round games are tougher, but you're not stuck with a one in the sweet 16.

All that said, let's just win round one. Consistency over a 2, 3, 4 game stretch is still a question that needs answering.
 
#171      
Lysol623
What I'm about to say may sound crazy.
But I think with each win in the tournament, we lock a higher seed. If we beat Iowa, lock in the 6 seed. Beat Maryland, we lock in a 5 seed, win three games and we lock in the last 4 seed.
 
#172      
Lysol623
Second place is 1st loser said:
A 6 seed is significantly better than a 4 or 5. There is a CLEAR gap between the teams on the one line and seeds 2-6. Yes, the first and second round games are tougher, but you're not stuck with a one in the sweet 16.

All that said, let's just win round one. Consistency over a 2, 3, 4 game stretch is still a question that needs answering.
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I agree with this, a 6 allows for a deeper run. However, with our team, it may be better two play a 12 seed in round one and a lesser 4 in round 2..
 
#173      
OrangeBlue98
Lysol623 said:
What I'm about to say may sound crazy.
But I think with each win in the tournament, we lock a higher seed. If we beat Iowa, lock in the 6 seed. Beat Maryland, we lock in a 5 seed, win three games and we lock in the last 4 seed.
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OrangeBlue98 said:
I'm very likely looking at this too simplistically, but I think the following happens with Illinois.

Win Thursday, and the 6 is locked in
The next two wins through Saturday would potentially bump Illinois up a seed line per win depending on what else is happening with teams around Illinois.
Sunday is irrelevant from a seeding perspective.

Predictions are pretty much useless with this Illinois team, but I'll make one anyway. I think Illinois wins tomorrow and Friday, loses Saturday, and gets a 5 seed.
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Definitely not crazy. :D
 
#174      
Rez
Illinialldayeveryday said:
Lunardi has us as last 5, but BYU can't play on Sunday so we are the 1st 6 seed. But on the overall list we are last 5. No idea what Palm is thinking.
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I could be misremebering, but I thought that in a situation where a team like BYU can't play on Sunday the committee rules were they have to be moved down a seed not up. I think I read that somewhere recently but can't remember where.
 
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