OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
Remind me again how long ago those games were?
This is why I continue to say no one can just blindly follow stats and metrics. At some point, recent history and observation has to be a part of this mix.
Week of 3/11 Games Thread
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This is why I continue to say no one can just blindly follow stats and metrics. At some point, recent history and observation has to be a part of this mix.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
The last 10 games used to be a thing the committee looked at. Seems worth thinking about to me still.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
For what it's worth, CBS has it like this as of this morning:
Attachments
If one or more of these teams lose early, there for sure is
Thursday, March 14 (all times EDT)
Big Ten Games (at Minneapolis, MN)
Minnesota vs. Michigan State, 12:00 PM on Big Ten Network
Maryland vs. Wisconsin, 2:30 PM on Big Ten Network
Ohio State vs. Iowa, 6:30 PM on Big Ten Network
Penn State vs. Indiana, 9:00 PM on Big Ten Network
AP Top 25 Games
No. 1 Houston vs. TCU at Kansas City, Mo., 3 p.m., ESPN
No. 2 UConn vs. Xavier at New York, Noon, Fox Sports 1
No. 4 North Carolina vs. Florida State at Washington DC, Noon, ESPN
No. 6 Arizona vs. USC at Las Vegas, 3 p.m., Pac12 Networks
No. 7 Iowa St. vs. Kansas State at Kansas City, Mo., 7 p.m., ESPN2
No. 8 Creighton vs. Providence at New York, 7 p.m., Fox Sports 1
No. 10 Marquette vs. Villanova at New York, 9:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1
No. 11 Duke vs. NC State at Washington DC, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 14 Baylor vs. Cincinnati at Kansas City, Mo., 9:30 p.m., ESPN2
No. 15 South Carolina vs. Arkansas at Nashville, Tenn., 3:30 p.m., SEC Network
No. 18 Utah St. vs. Fresno State at Las Vegas, 3 p.m., CBS Sports Network
No. 22 Washington St. vs. Stanford at Las Vegas, 9 p.m., Pac12 Networks
No. 23 Nevada vs. Colorado State at Las Vegas, 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
No. 24 Dayton vs. Duquesne at Brooklyn, N.Y., 7:30 p.m., USA
No. 25 Texas Tech vs. BYU at Kansas City, Mo., 12:30 p.m., ESPN2
Conference Championship Games
None
Big Ten Games (at Minneapolis, MN)
Minnesota vs. Michigan State, 12:00 PM on Big Ten Network
Maryland vs. Wisconsin, 2:30 PM on Big Ten Network
Ohio State vs. Iowa, 6:30 PM on Big Ten Network
Penn State vs. Indiana, 9:00 PM on Big Ten Network
AP Top 25 Games
No. 1 Houston vs. TCU at Kansas City, Mo., 3 p.m., ESPN
No. 2 UConn vs. Xavier at New York, Noon, Fox Sports 1
No. 4 North Carolina vs. Florida State at Washington DC, Noon, ESPN
No. 6 Arizona vs. USC at Las Vegas, 3 p.m., Pac12 Networks
No. 7 Iowa St. vs. Kansas State at Kansas City, Mo., 7 p.m., ESPN2
No. 8 Creighton vs. Providence at New York, 7 p.m., Fox Sports 1
No. 10 Marquette vs. Villanova at New York, 9:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1
No. 11 Duke vs. NC State at Washington DC, 7 p.m., ESPN
No. 14 Baylor vs. Cincinnati at Kansas City, Mo., 9:30 p.m., ESPN2
No. 15 South Carolina vs. Arkansas at Nashville, Tenn., 3:30 p.m., SEC Network
No. 18 Utah St. vs. Fresno State at Las Vegas, 3 p.m., CBS Sports Network
No. 22 Washington St. vs. Stanford at Las Vegas, 9 p.m., Pac12 Networks
No. 23 Nevada vs. Colorado State at Las Vegas, 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
No. 24 Dayton vs. Duquesne at Brooklyn, N.Y., 7:30 p.m., USA
No. 25 Texas Tech vs. BYU at Kansas City, Mo., 12:30 p.m., ESPN2
Conference Championship Games
None
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
This....is a good day.
ILLINIShox24
Orange Krush '04 & '05
What are everyone's thoughts on BYU? I pretty consistently see them as the #5 to our #4.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
For today: Duke picking up a Q2 loss to NC State might make some room. Baylor getting a Q1 loss to Cincy won't move them much.
Kentucky doesn't play until tomorrow, but they'll most likely be in a low-Q1 game against Texas A&M, so a loss also wouldn't move them much - but we're closest to them, so it could leave the door open. Smaller chance that they'll be in a low-Q2 game against Ole Miss.
if we had beaten these teams in the first half of the season would you want to "blindly" discount these victories????
The Athletic moved Kansas down to 13 (kept us at 14) and moved Kentucky up to 12.
We can pass Kansas with 2 wins. If Kentucky loses to A&M and we win 2, I think we could get/stay (depending on the bracket you're looking at) ahead of Kentucky too. Duke seems a little less likely, even with a Q2 loss to NC State.
This may be one year where the Big Ten Tournament championship game does factor in. If we get there and play Purdue, a win could get us a 3 and a loss would keep us a 4.
It won't. Committee has made it quite clear on multiple occasions the BTT Final has no effect on the bracket. At this point, just have to make it to the final and have 1 or 2 other teams on that low 3 high 4 seed line lose earlier in theirs. We also need Maryland to stay in the Top 75 of the NET- they're projected to lose by 3pts to Wisconsin today so a 6pt or less loss or win should lock them in there. Win the 2 games in the BTT that on paper we will be favored to win, and the rest of the cards will fall where they may.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
To the extent it has to (ie the two times we made the BTT final when we were nowhere near the bubble), the committee literally just makes two brackets.
Making the bracket takes a lot of time and little moves have downstream consequences, and the BTT final is just played too late to be fiddling with stuff based on that result. I would imagine they have to be doing TV graphics programming work during the game.
It's fine. Getting to be the lead-in to the bracket show on CBS is worth the "disadvantage" of the conference not getting credit for one win.
They can and have made two brackets.
They can make one with us the final 3 and one with us the first 4 seed.
That doesn't necessarily cause a lot of movement elsewhere on the bracket. This could all be moot, depending how Duke and Kentucky fair in their respective conference tournaments.
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Illini in OC
In. The. Alley.
no need to discount early results completely - just weight most recent results more - i.e. 1st third - 25%, 2nd third - 35% 3rd third 40%
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
@Tennessee, N-UNC, @Auburn and Alabama are all better than any win we have, plus they're hot late. I disagree.
Letting one bad home loss on December 2 outweigh that would be dumb, and I'd absolutely be saying the same thing if the roles were reversed.
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theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
I think the OP is just saying that we can't assume that the committee FOR SURE has UK ahead of us because we have the better NET and Kenpom rankings.
And frankly, I'm not convinced either. Maybe the committee takes into account our defensive efficiency the last 2 games or that TSJ was absent for 6 games and took a bit to get back to All-American form?
Wins are a big piece of the puzzle, but it's not the whole thing.
you can't just dismiss UK's loss at home to UNCW. plus in past 6 weeks: UK lost to LSU on Feb 21, barely got by Ark, lost to FL (and beat them by 2), lost to A&M, lost to SC by 17. that is 4 losses to non-tourny teams vs our 2
we lack marquee wins but we were competitive in 3 games vs #1 seeds and 1 with a #2. other losses were OT to NW, by 1 to PSU, a collapse @MSU, to MD w/o TSJ, we have a good road record. metric/net-wise, N-FAU, MSU, @WI, Neb are on or close to par with Auburn and AL
I think the last 3 #3 seeds are very close between Baylor, IL, UK, Duke - it depends on what you put more weight on. a first round loss vs. win could be the tie-breaker amongst the 4 (think KU has lost their 3 the past few weeks). Go UC and NC St
South Carolina and Florida are in. And Texas A&M is right on the bubble. Their only losses to non-tourney teams are UNCW and LSU and they lost by 1 point on the road to LSU.
And if they barely got by Arkansas (they won by 9), we barely got by Minnesota (win by 8).
It will very likely be us or Kentucky for the final 3 seed and even the people that do this for a living aren't sure which team would get the 3.
Let's just hope Kentucky loses tomorrow and we take care of business.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
People are free to have their own views on these things, and as I've said elsewhere, I think the AP Poll vs NCAA seeding vs predictive KenPom type stuff really SHOULD be different.
But when it comes to an NCAA tournament resume, I have very little interest in one bad loss except maybe as a tiebreaker, and I have no interest in "good losses" whatsoever.
mistakenly counted FL. A&M is not going to be in (we won @OSU and @IA). Ark led by 15+, it was Ark's game to win with 2-3 min left, the final score was not indicative. MN is a tad better than Ark, we did not trail for 30+ min. My only point is that I don't think anyone can say UK has the 3 over us as of today - it's a coin toss. We really need to win next 2, would be very helpful for the other #3 contenders to lose.
Well, the Athletic and bracketmatrix have Kentucky ahead of us.
And A&M is in, as of now.
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