Week of 3/2 Bracketology

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#51      
Epsilon
jrichisamazing said:
Either Nebraska has to go 0-2 or MSU has to go 0-2. But MSU plays Rutgers at home so that isn't happening. Our only realistic shot is Nebraska losing @UCLA and gone against Iowa. Certainly possible.
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Crazier things have happened but agree it’s not likely. Was hoping we wouldn’t have to face scUM till the B1G championship game instead of the semis but doubt it would make a big difference for our overall seed either way. Of course there’s no guarantee we even get to that game in the first place - gotta get our mojo back.
 
#52      
FloridaMan
Self inflicted predicament the team has put themselves in. Simply close out the UCLA game, or win Wiscy game, and we are looking at a MUCH better chance of picking up a win or two in the B10 tournament as the 2/3 seed with a great chance to enhance NCAA seed.

As it stands, even winning these final two regular season games puts us solidly in line for the 4 B10 seed and a 3 NCAA seed. Drop one of these last two regular season games, and we are looking at a NCAA 4 AT BEST, IMO.

Either way, pretty tough sledding heading into the dance having potentially lost 5 of our last 10 games. It would sure help if the team remembered how to play defense like it showed against Purdue and the Nebraska win.
 
#53      
Epsilon
Just curious if anyone’s got any thoughts on which of the bottom 8 in the B1G tournament is most likely to wake up with some smelling salts all of the sudden and make a couple of upsets?
 
#54      
floorburn
GoodePodzMelendez said:
For the elder statesmen on here, the Tourney was no where near where it is today. In the early 70’s, I used to take construction board and drew out the bracket and hung it on the wall in my bedroom. It wasn’t until 1979 when it expanded to 40 teams and NBC, who was the broadcast network pushed it especially the Finals which featured Magic Vs Larry. But the year before it was Goose Givens and the Kentucky Wildcats vs Jim Spanarkle/Mike Gminski led Duke team. We made the Tourney as a 4 seed in 1981 where we had a buy in the Oregon State Region. What’s frustrating was we barely got by a Wyoming team in the Round of 32, thank you Perry Range for knocking down crucial Fts late in the game, we caught a break as the overall number 1 seed Oregon State lost to Kansas State team. That didn’t work out well for us as we lost 57-52 on a poorly shot game by us. Ed Nealy, Ro Blackmon and Tim Jankovich outplayed us. I really thought that team of EJ, Mark Smith, Derek Holcomb, Derek Harper. Perry Range would make noise and get to al least the E8. But losing to a lower seed as frustrating. I remember talking to Harper years later in Dallas about that game and his Maverick teammate Ro Blackmon. It was colorful to say the least. LOL
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My recollection from the Wyoming game was that Perry Range tied the game inside of a minute with a baseline jumper. Wyoming held for the last shot (no shot clock at that time) but missed and Mark Smith was fouled on the rebound. He converted both shots and we held on for the win against a surprisingly good Wyoming team.

That particular day was insane with upsets…the aforementioned Oregon State - Kansas State game. Two other notable games with #1 seed DePaul losing on a layup at the buzzer to St Joe and US Reed of Arkansas hitting a half court shot buzzer beater to beat Louisville.
 
#55      
Fighter of the Nightman
Epsilon said:
Just curious if anyone’s got any thoughts on which of the bottom 8 in the B1G tournament is most likely to wake up with some smelling salts all of the sudden and make a couple of upsets?
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If you leave the default results in the BTT Seeding Simulator, these would be the bottom 8:

11. Washington
12. Minnesota
13. USC
14. Rutgers
15. Northwestern
16. Oregon
17. Maryland
18. Penn State

While schools like Oregon and Northwestern have sort of "come on" the most here lately, my money is on the Gophers. Their last four games have been:

W 61-44 at Oregon
W 80-61 vs. Rutgers
L 67-77 at #3 Michigan
W 78-73 vs. UCLA

They finish at Indiana and vs. Northwestern, and based on what I saw of Indiana yesterday, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the Gophers go 2-0 and finish the regular season having won 5 of 6. The path they'd have in that simulated bracket would also give them a manageable game vs. USC to start and then a showdown with Purdue on Thursday. Purdue smoked them the first time around, but that was back in early December, and the Boilermakers have lost 3 of 4 with a road trip to Northwestern and home game vs. Wisconsin looming. I would still take Purdue, but they could be in a bit of a funk and this upset wouldn't shock me. I would hope Minnesota's Cinderella run stops there, though, because #4 seed Illinois would be waiting on Friday!
 
#56      
Epsilon
Fighter of the Nightman said:
If you leave the default results in the BTT Seeding Simulator, these would be the bottom 8:

11. Washington
12. Minnesota
13. USC
14. Rutgers
15. Northwestern
16. Oregon
17. Maryland
18. Penn State

While schools like Oregon and Northwestern have sort of "come on" the most here lately, my money is on the Gophers. Their last four games have been:

W 61-44 at Oregon
W 80-61 vs. Rutgers
L 67-77 at #3 Michigan
W 78-73 vs. UCLA

They finish at Indiana and vs. Northwestern, and based on what I saw of Indiana yesterday, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the Gophers go 2-0 and finish the regular season having won 5 of 6. The path they'd have in that simulated bracket would also give them a manageable game vs. USC to start and then a showdown with Purdue on Thursday. Purdue smoked them the first time around, but that was back in early December, and the Boilermakers have lost 3 of 4 with a road trip to Northwestern and home game vs. Wisconsin looming. I would still take Purdue, but they could be in a bit of a funk and this upset wouldn't shock me. I would hope Minnesota's Cinderella run stops there, though, because #4 seed Illinois would be waiting on Friday!
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Great analysis, thank you. I’m surprised Washington hasn’t done better this year. They seem to have some decent talent. And yet they even lost to Seattle University.
 
#58      
GoodePodzMelendez
floorburn said:
My recollection from the Wyoming game was that Perry Range tied the game inside of a minute with a baseline jumper. Wyoming held for the last shot (no shot clock at that time) but missed and Mark Smith was fouled on the rebound. He converted both shots and we held on for the win against a surprisingly good Wyoming team.

That particular day was insane with upsets…the aforementioned Oregon State - Kansas State game. Two other notable games with #1 seed DePaul losing on a layup at the buzzer to St Joe and US Reed of Arkansas hitting a half court shot buzzer beater to beat Louisville.
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You anre correct, for some reason, I recalled Perry shooting those Fts and I thought St Joseph won on a base line jumper which ironically was Aguirre’s man. US Reed beating LVille was classic. I wish I could pull that game up on YT since it was 45 years ago and I was a poor college kid on Spring Break LOL
 
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#60      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
If we do happen to get stuck in the 4 seed for BTT, I hope Wisconsin pulls off the upset over Purdue. I want Friday morning/afternoon Chicago revenge for what happened in Champaign.
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Yeah, assuming we are stuck in the #4 spot (which I hate, lol...), I personally think our dream bracket of somewhat realistic scenarios would be...

(1) #12 Minnesota over #13 USC on Wednesday
(2) #5 Wisconsin over #12 Minnesota on Thursday in an emotionally draining rivalry game that leaves the winner tired
(3) We beat a tired #5 Wisconsin on Friday by a surprisingly large amount due to their tired legs and the revenge factor, and we regain some of our confidence. This also gets us another Quad 1 win (and another Quad 1A win if Wisconsin jumps from #32 to the top 25).
(4) #8 Ohio State gives #1 Michigan a damn good fight for about 35 minutes, but the Wolverines solidly put away a surging-but-tired #8 Ohio State team late and gets a little too cocky but also maybe a bit more tired than they were expecting.
(5) A fired up Illini squad comes out firing on all cylinders in front of what is hopefully a sea of orange and gets revenge on Michigan, solidifying us as a clear #2 seed in the Big Dance.
 
#62      
Fighter of the Nightman
Also, for those interested these would be the Quad classifications of potential BTT opponents. I'm not sure how much the nitty gritty details would matter here given where we currently sit on the #2/#3 seed debate (i.e., it might be just as simple as don't lose before Saturday or something), but here ya go.

Quad 1A | #1-25
#2 Michigan
#9 Purdue
#11 Michigan State
#12 Nebraska

Other Quad 1 | #26-50
#28 Iowa
#32 Wisconsin
#34 Ohio State
#39 UCLA
#41 Indiana

Quad 2 | #51-100
#61 Washington
#63 USC
#68 Minnesota
#72 Northwestern

Quad 3 | #101-200
#107 Oregon
#125 Penn State
#146 Maryland
#158 Rutgers

If you operate under the assumption that we will be the #4 seed (currently an 85% chance), there is a 75% chance Purdue would be the #5 seed and a 15% chance Wisconsin would be the #5 seed. Assuming either can win its Thursday game and that WE could beat either, I think from a strict resume perspective, we'd want a shot at Purdue for another Quad 1A opportunity. However, if one believes we have a significantly better shot at beating Wisconsin, a Quad 1 win of any kind sure beats a Quad 1A loss.
 
#63      
BrownTown
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Also, for those interested these would be the Quad classifications of potential BTT opponents. I'm not sure how much the nitty gritty details would matter here given where we currently sit on the #2/#3 seed debate (i.e., it might be just as simple as don't lose before Saturday or something), but here ya go.

Quad 1A | #1-25
#2 Michigan
#9 Purdue
#11 Michigan State
#12 Nebraska

Other Quad 1 | #26-50
#28 Iowa
#32 Wisconsin
#34 Ohio State
#39 UCLA
#41 Indiana

Quad 2 | #51-100
#61 Washington
#63 USC
#68 Minnesota
#72 Northwestern

Quad 3 | #101-200
#107 Oregon
#125 Penn State
#146 Maryland
#158 Rutgers

If you operate under the assumption that we will be the #4 seed (currently an 85% chance), there is a 75% chance Purdue would be the #5 seed and a 15% chance Wisconsin would be the #5 seed. Assuming either can win its Thursday game and that WE could beat either, I think from a strict resume perspective, we'd want a shot at Purdue for another Quad 1A opportunity. However, if one believes we have a significantly better shot at beating Wisconsin, a Quad 1 win of any kind sure beats a Quad 1A loss.
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I'd like a shot at Wisconsin again over Purdue. Need to cleanse the palate from that terrible home loss.
 
#64      
March2TheArch
Self inflicted predicament the team has put themselves in. Simply close out the UCLA game, or win Wiscy game, and we are looking at a MUCH better chance of picking up a win or two in the B10 tournament as the 2/3 seed with a great chance to enhance NCAA seed.

As it stands, even winning these final two regular season games puts us solidly in line for the 4 B10 seed and a 3 NCAA seed. Drop one of these last two regular season games, and we are looking at a NCAA 4 AT BEST, IMO.

Either way, pretty tough sledding heading into the dance having potentially lost 5 of our last 10 games. It would sure help if the team remembered how to play defense like it showed against Purdue and the Nebraska win.
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That’s on Brad Underwood for wasting half the roster on unplayable players. Our 8-man rotation became a 6-man one. I understand you’re not gonna have a 4/5-star players up and down the roster in the NIL era. But how do you not have a functional second unit in March. We may not have top 10 NIL money but we have Top 25 NIL money.

BU is still the best coach we can hope for. But hard to deny he’s an above average roster builder and Xs and Os coach. As such, we are an above average Top 25 program.

I can live with that over the latter BAM and Groce years.

We need a billionaire Illini alum take an interest in getting us a basketball natty. We need a Yaxel/Mara/Morez-esque roster build.
 
#65      
rdk573
(5) A fired up Illini squad comes out firing on all cylinders in front of what is hopefully a sea of orange and gets revenge on Michigan, solidifying us as a clear #2 seed in the Big Dance.
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I like your optimism, but there is no way other than the Michigan starting five gets beset with injuries/illness that we are beating them anytime during this season..
 
#66      
Fighter of the Nightman
I wanted to look up the recent history that could be relevant to our (hopeful) matchup with Michigan on Saturday if we are the #4 seed and win on Friday ... and I was surprised to learn that matchup has hardly ever happened in the last 10 Big Ten Tournaments. :oops: Below is a history of the #1 vs. #4 games over the past 10 Big Ten Tournaments, obviously excluding years where the #1 seed is upset on Friday or the #4 loses on Friday. The other bad news is that the #4 seed has lost its Friday game 5 years in a row, lol...

2025
N/A (#5 Wisconsin beat #4 UCLA on Friday)

2024
N/A (#5 Wisconsin beat #4 Northwestern on Friday)

2023
N/A (#13 Ohio State beat #4 Michigan State on Friday)

2022
N/A (#5 Iowa beat #4 Rutgers and #9 Indiana beat #1 Illinois on Friday)

2021
N/A (#5 Ohio State beat #4 Purdue on Friday)

2019
#1 Michigan State 67, #4 Wisconsin 55

2018
N/A (#5 Michigan beat #4 Nebraska on Friday)

2017
N/A (#8 Michigan beat #1 Purdue on Friday)

2016
N/A (#8 Michigan beat #1 Indiana on Friday)

2015
#1 Wisconsin 71, #4 Purdue 51

Fun fact ... the team that beats the #4 seed on Friday is actually 4-1 vs. the #1 seed in the next game...

2018 - #5 Michigan beats #4 Nebraska, #1 Michigan State and #3 Purdue to win BTT
2021 - #5 Ohio State beats #4 Purdue, #1 Michigan and loses to #2 Illinois in Championship Game
2023 - #13 Ohio State beats #4 Michigan State but loses to #1 Purdue
2024 - #5 Wisconsin beats #4 Northwestern, #1 Purdue and loses to #2 Illinois in Championship Game
2025 - #5 Wisconsin eats #4 UCLA, #1 Michigan State and loses to #3 Michigan in Championship Game

I was also curious if being in the evening sessions somehow gives a team an advantage, even though the team with the theoretically best team (i.e., the #1 seed) plays in the earlier sessions. As a reminder, the #1 and #4 are in the "Morning Session(s)," and the #2 and #3 are in the "Evening Session(s)."

BTT Champion by Session
2015 - Morning (#1 Wisconsin)
2016 - Evening (#2 Michigan State)
2017 - Morning (#8 Michigan)
2018 - Morning (#5 Michigan)
2019 - Morning (#1 Michigan State)
2021 - Evening (#2 Illinois)
2022 - Morning (#5 Iowa)
2023 - Morning (#1 Purdue)
2024 - Evening (#2 Illinois)
2025 - Evening (#3 Michigan)

No clear-cut trend, but it does sort of jump out that the #1 seed rarely wins the BTT unless they are just the clear-cut dominant team in the league that year with a large gap between #1 and #2 (e.g., 2005 Illinois or 2023 Purdue). In more competitive years, the #2 and #3 seeds actually perform better, and the teams that DO go far in the Morning part of the bracket tend to be sort of Cinderella runs of teams who got hot.

Anyway, all just for fun. Let's break the #4 seed curse, lol...
 
#67      
wc_illini
NorthShoreIllini said:
Nebraska bothers me. They played an absolutely atrocious non conference schedule and are being rewarded for it because they won all those games. Most of the teams in the last 2/3 seed convo would've likely done the same. New Mexico is their only decent non conference win but doesn't stack up to anyone else in the convo in my opinion.
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I personally don't think a team should be penalized for a weak non-conference schedule (the various ranking systems can sort this out), and I dislike quad records since there's so much difference between the top and bottom of each quad (plus I don't see what they add when the committee already has resume-based ranking systems).

The committee's resume-based rankings have MSU 6th, Nebraska 9th, and us T-13th (with Purdue). The efficiency-based rankings have us 6th, MSU 10th, and Nebraska 12th. We can hope the committee favors efficiency over resume, in which case there's a pretty good gap between us and either MSU or Nebraska.
 
#69      
Fly Illini Fly!
Latest from DeCourcy:

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Lunardi:

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Bracket Matrix:

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#73      
Illini2010-11
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Latest from DeCourcy:

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Lunardi:

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Bracket Matrix:

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As bad as things have felt the last 2-3 weeks, the rest of the major conferences are also cannibalizing themselves. Handle business this week, and it really appears that the floor for the squad will be a 3 seed. As I have said previously, I really do not see much difference between a 2 and 3 seed, and the location matters more. Simply avoid falling to the 4 line.

Losses by Nebraska and Purdue this week would also be helpful to our positioning, but honestly, we control our own destiny to a 2-seed. Can't really complain about our position going into the last week of the regular season...our metrics really are solid. We just need to start playing 40 minutes for the next few games to feel confident going into the tourney.
 
#74      
Altuve27
Illini2010-11 said:
As bad as things have felt the last 2-3 weeks, the rest of the major conferences are also cannibalizing themselves. Handle business this week, and it really appears that the floor for the squad will be a 3 seed. As I have said previously, I really do not see much difference between a 2 and 3 seed, and the location matters more. Simply avoid falling to the 4 line.

Losses by Nebraska and Purdue this week would also be helpful to our positioning, but honestly, we control our own destiny to a 2-seed. Can't really complain about our position going into the last week of the regular season...our metrics really are solid. We just need to start playing 40 minutes for the next few games to feel confident going into the tourney.
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If we can just take care of our business and win 2 games we should win this week we’ll be in really good shape, not because beating two God awful teams would make some grand statement, but if we can have a “clean” week we’ll pick up ground on a bunch of teams that are going to lose. Just off the top of my head:

Arizona probably murders Iowa State tonight.
UCLA REALLY needs to beat Nebraska at home following their awful loss to Minnesota this weekend. Sound familiar??? I think that probably happens. Hell, Nebraska was in trouble against USC before Baker-Mazara literally quit on his team.
MSU is very likely to lose by double digits to Michigan.
I wouldn’t be REMOTELY surprised if Wisconsin beats Purdue. The Badgers have played at a high level against good competition.

You get the idea. There will be examples like this all over the country. Illinois needs to start playing defense like they give a damn again and take it from there. Play hard and connected like we were and things will turn around.
 
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