purdue has two very losable games @northwestern then vs wisky... wisky has maryland at home tonite before purdue... according to torvik purdue has only about 60 percent chance of winning both their remaining games... then they'd be maybe a 85-90 percent favorite vs the 12/13 seed... drops to about 50 percent chance we play purdue... so maybe not as unlikely as we think right now... currently a coin fip give or take a percentage point or two... i'll be eagerly watching
Week of 3/2 Bracketology
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purdue has two very losable games @northwestern then vs wisky... wisky has maryland at home tonite before purdue... according to torvik purdue has only about 60 percent chance of winning both their remaining games... then they'd be maybe a 85-90 percent favorite vs the 12/13 seed... drops to about 50 percent chance we play purdue... so maybe not as unlikely as we think right now... currently a coin fip give or take a percentage point or two... i'll be eagerly watching
There is one, but we won't like it. If we lose to Maryland, Nebraska loses to Iowa and Purdue beats Wisconsin.
But all roads to getting off the 4 seed line require Nebraska to lose to Iowa.
One of the advantages of getting off of the 4 seed line is avoiding Purdue on Friday. Barring an upset in the tournament, I think the only the other options for Friday are UCLA or Wisconsin. If Nebraska wins and Purdue wins we play Purdue. If Nebraska loses and Wisconsin wins we play Purdue.
Purdue or Iowa State are the only teams from the 3 line that can jump Illinois for the 2.
You gotta assume the winner of Nebraska/MSU gets a #2. The loser will be a #3.
Then it comes down to IL vs Purdue. I don’t think IL will get a #2 if they lose to Purdue. If they beat Purdue, but then get waxed by Michigan again I think it’s still a #2 unless Iowa State wins Big 12 tourney. I don’t see Houston dropping to a #3 if Iowa State wins Big 12 tourney
I certainly wouldn’t mark Wisconsin as a win for Purdue at this point. Wisconsin has gone into Mackey and won in the recent past.
I don’t think Purdue has anyone to guard either Blackwell or Boyd. And Wisconsin beat Michigan and us in large part because their bigs knocked down shots against drop coverage, which Purdue will likely play. That, or they will get switch and have Cluff guard Blackwell or Boyd. We saw how that went with Keaton.
Purdue is quite good but they don’t have much of a margin for error. They are really dependent on Smith being extraordinary which he usually is. But anything less than an A game from Smith and they are very beatable by just decent teams, like @OSU last weekend.
PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
LouHenson
- Naples Florida
Really it has changed so much now. I really am not all that concerned with winning the BTT, therefore I am not really looking for the “easiest” path? I am looking for a Q1a game in our Friday game. Friday (I think) still counts towards your NCAA tournament. I guess the Saturday games could have an impact, but honestly over the years I am not sure even Saturday counts all that much?
'I think we are a bad matchup for Purdue defensively. They are not going to stop us. With Boswell back, he will not stop Smith but he can limit him enough to give us an edge. Personally, I would rather we go against Purdue than Wisky. Maybe that's just me but I don't see a revenge factor either. Maybe they try and shut down Wagler but we have other guys that can step up.
I have said the same. But as Fighter has pointed out in his previous year BTT recaps...
Wisconsin has done incredibly well as the #5 beating the 4 in recent years.
I know...it doesn't matter previous year success but an interesting data point.
For the BTT - while I agree being a 2 or 3 seed is preferable and I’d love to get revenge on Wisky or UCLA. One silver lining of a 4 seed and playing Michigan on Saturday is, if we win, the Sunday game is icing on the cake and won’t impact our seeding at all. If we lose, it gives us another day of rest before the tournament
Playing Michigan on Sunday doesn’t sound appealing- playing a tough/physical game Win or lose, that won’t impact our seeding but could take a lot out of us going into the tournament playing 3 straight games in 3 days can have some carry over. I think it’s better to play Michigan on Saturday
Playing Michigan on Sunday doesn’t sound appealing- playing a tough/physical game Win or lose, that won’t impact our seeding but could take a lot out of us going into the tournament playing 3 straight games in 3 days can have some carry over. I think it’s better to play Michigan on Saturday
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Eh, it just depends what Illini team we get ... like always. Purdue is FAR from unbeatable at the United Center with important seeding motivations involved. With that said, the #4 seed path through #5 Purdue and #1 Michigan is so infinitely worse than the #3 seed path through the #6 seed and #2 Michigan State. Not even close.
Agreed most years, but I’m not locking that in this year.
Been some bizarre results at Mackey. And not just the losses. That Oregon team from last night took Purdue down to the final few possessions at Mackey.
One thing to consider: Purdue was a Fletcher Loyer 3 in the last 45 seconds from losing at Mackey to *checks notes* Oregon.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
RE: First Weekend locations, here is my guess at where the current protected seeds would want to be. There are obviously other considerations like pairing the top #1 with the lowest #2, spreading out conference teams, avoiding rematches, etc. However, this shows a general current pecking order on the Bracket Matrix for who would be "in line" for each spot. Within each list, the teams are in order of the current S-Curve.
REMINDER! Your First Weekend location is NOT tied to your Region of the bracket. We could be in St. Louis with a #3 seed that is in the Chicago Region while we are in the South, and we would both just go our separate ways after the Second Round. This happened with Iowa State being in Milwaukee with us last year, for example.
Buffalo, NY
#2 Michigan State
Greenville, SC
#1 Duke
#4 Alabama
Oklahoma City, OK
#2 Houston
#3 Nebraska (actually closer than St. Louis by about 25 minutes)
#3 Texas Tech
Portland, OR
#4 Gonzaga
Tampa, FL
#2 Florida
Philadelphia, PA
#1 Michigan (confirmed)
#1 UConn (significantly closer than Buffalo, but I assume they'll get sent to Buffalo)
#4 Virginia (about the same distance as Greenville but closer to major alum center in DC)
San Diego, CA
#1 Arizona
St. Louis, MO
#2 Illinois
#3 Iowa State
#3 Purdue
#4 Kansas
It involves speculation (e.g., Kansas probably couldn't care less about St. Louis vs. OKC), but I think most are generally accurate ... and when you consider that schools like Nebraska and MSU could just as easily prefer St. Louis (the latter has plenty of alumni in Chicago who could make that relatively easy drive), the competition for St. Louis is definitely more intense than any other site. ISU, Nebraska and KU losing already this week is huge for us, and a Purdue loss would be wonderful!
REMINDER! Your First Weekend location is NOT tied to your Region of the bracket. We could be in St. Louis with a #3 seed that is in the Chicago Region while we are in the South, and we would both just go our separate ways after the Second Round. This happened with Iowa State being in Milwaukee with us last year, for example.
Buffalo, NY
#2 Michigan State
Greenville, SC
#1 Duke
#4 Alabama
Oklahoma City, OK
#2 Houston
#3 Nebraska (actually closer than St. Louis by about 25 minutes)
#3 Texas Tech
Portland, OR
#4 Gonzaga
Tampa, FL
#2 Florida
Philadelphia, PA
#1 Michigan (confirmed)
#1 UConn (significantly closer than Buffalo, but I assume they'll get sent to Buffalo)
#4 Virginia (about the same distance as Greenville but closer to major alum center in DC)
San Diego, CA
#1 Arizona
St. Louis, MO
#2 Illinois
#3 Iowa State
#3 Purdue
#4 Kansas
It involves speculation (e.g., Kansas probably couldn't care less about St. Louis vs. OKC), but I think most are generally accurate ... and when you consider that schools like Nebraska and MSU could just as easily prefer St. Louis (the latter has plenty of alumni in Chicago who could make that relatively easy drive), the competition for St. Louis is definitely more intense than any other site. ISU, Nebraska and KU losing already this week is huge for us, and a Purdue loss would be wonderful!
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
As a reminder, our feelings on March 4th every year in the 2010's:
2010: "If we lose to Wisconsin on Sunday then we'll have pulled it off - from a likely 7-seed three weeks ago to the NIT." (We lost to Wisconsin, our fifth loss in six games, and went to the NIT.)
2011: "We HAVE TO beat Indiana in the finale or we'll be 8-10 in the Big Ten and back on the bubble." (We beat Indiana and got a 9-seed.)
2012: "How on God's green earth has a team that was ranked 22nd in mid-January now lost 11 of 13 to fall to 6-12 in the Big Ten?"
2013: "I know the bracketologists say we're in. But we're only 8-8 in the Big Ten. If we lose these final two, are we sure we're in?" (We lost the final two but were safely in even though we finished 8-10 in the Big Ten.)
2014: "I cannot believe we started the Big Ten 3-10. This late season run is nice and all, but 3-10 killed our Tournament chances. (It did indeed. We were a 2-seed in the NIT.)
2015: "We're on the wrong side of the bubble now but honestly, we still have a chance at the Tournament. Just beat Purdue this weekend and then win a game or two in the BTT." (We lost to Purdue. We lost in the opening game of the BTT. We went to the NIT.)
2016: "How is it even possible that Illinois basketball is 13-17 right now?"
2017: (This feeling was fanbase-wide on March 4th, 2017) "I don't know what this new Athletic Director will do, but if this four game winning streak late in the season to put us on the bubble means he's going to keep John Groce..." (It did not. He fired Groce and Jamall Walker coached the team in the NIT.)
2018: "With the BTT moved up a week, it's crazy that the season ended in February. This team was lucky to win 14 games but I like this Trent Frazier kid."
2019: "I really hope we win at Penn State on Sunday because if not, that's 20 losses and 20 losses is something that should never happen in Champaign." (We lost at Penn State.)After 21 NCAA Tournaments in 25 years from 1983 to 2007, we had fallen to *that*. And now that the good old days are here again, I've vowed to always remember how early March used to feel so helpless.
As is so often the case, Robert does a heck of a job breaking down the context of just how bad things were and showing how much we've bounced back. Please, let's never go back to those incredibly dark days.
2010: "If we lose to Wisconsin on Sunday then we'll have pulled it off - from a likely 7-seed three weeks ago to the NIT." (We lost to Wisconsin, our fifth loss in six games, and went to the NIT.)
2011: "We HAVE TO beat Indiana in the finale or we'll be 8-10 in the Big Ten and back on the bubble." (We beat Indiana and got a 9-seed.)
2012: "How on God's green earth has a team that was ranked 22nd in mid-January now lost 11 of 13 to fall to 6-12 in the Big Ten?"
2013: "I know the bracketologists say we're in. But we're only 8-8 in the Big Ten. If we lose these final two, are we sure we're in?" (We lost the final two but were safely in even though we finished 8-10 in the Big Ten.)
2014: "I cannot believe we started the Big Ten 3-10. This late season run is nice and all, but 3-10 killed our Tournament chances. (It did indeed. We were a 2-seed in the NIT.)
2015: "We're on the wrong side of the bubble now but honestly, we still have a chance at the Tournament. Just beat Purdue this weekend and then win a game or two in the BTT." (We lost to Purdue. We lost in the opening game of the BTT. We went to the NIT.)
2016: "How is it even possible that Illinois basketball is 13-17 right now?"
2017: (This feeling was fanbase-wide on March 4th, 2017) "I don't know what this new Athletic Director will do, but if this four game winning streak late in the season to put us on the bubble means he's going to keep John Groce..." (It did not. He fired Groce and Jamall Walker coached the team in the NIT.)
2018: "With the BTT moved up a week, it's crazy that the season ended in February. This team was lucky to win 14 games but I like this Trent Frazier kid."
2019: "I really hope we win at Penn State on Sunday because if not, that's 20 losses and 20 losses is something that should never happen in Champaign." (We lost at Penn State.)After 21 NCAA Tournaments in 25 years from 1983 to 2007, we had fallen to *that*. And now that the good old days are here again, I've vowed to always remember how early March used to feel so helpless.
As is so often the case, Robert does a heck of a job breaking down the context of just how bad things were and showing how much we've bounced back. Please, let's never go back to those incredibly dark days.
I'm legitimately excited to see how well the faithful show out for the BTT.
I was so impressed with the energy and noise that they brought for the Bama game. I know it won't be that lopsided fan wise in the tourney but that was impressive.
Maybe our Chicagoland fans were excited to see good basketball after years of mehh from the Bulls.
Whatever that was. Kudos to the 312 fans that showed up
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
As someone who was there, it was indeed a blast! I too am hoping that Illini fans flood the UC, but there are two things that might hinder that, at least a little.
(1) If we are the #4 seed, we will play during the day on Friday and fans who otherwise would have gone but cannot take off work will be forced out. This unfortunately describes my wife and me, and we are super bummed as we thought we were a near lock for the evening session (i.e., #2 or #3 seed) a couple weeks ago.
(2) If we are the #4 seed, we have also locked ourselves into the morning session with Michigan for both Friday and Saturday if we make it. That doesn't just suck because Michigan will certainly probably have a good showing themselves, as I am sure MSU would also bring a lot of fans if we were in the evening session with them. What sucks the most about this is Michigan fans have known they'd be the morning session for Friday and Saturday for well over a week now, giving them an edge on scooping up tickets. By contrast, assuming Illinois beats Maryland, we wouldn't know for sure if we were the #4 seed (morning session) or #3 seed (evening session) until like 6:00 pm on Sunday night. The odds are pretty heavy that we are the #4 seed, but that is only because people are assuming Nebraska will beat Iowa at home.
So, I will be pulling HARD for Iowa this Sunday, as a Hawkeyes win would set up the Illini BTT experience to be SO much better. Getting to avoid Michigan until Sunday, facing MSU instead of Purdue on Friday, being in the evening session with presumably way more Illini fans for Friday and Saturday, etc. As someone who desperately wants to go to the BTT this year but can't miss work next Friday, the MSU, Wisconsin and especially UCLA losses are REALLY starting to sting, lol...
Illini get the 4 seed
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Here is the description from the BTT Seed Simulator:
1. Michigan (19 - 1)
2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).
3. Mich St (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).
4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).
I will assume that MSU will easily beat Rutgers at home, but we really need these results on Sunday...
(1) Illini beat Maryland to improve to 15-5
(2) MSU loses at Michigan to fall to 15-5
(3) Nebraska loses vs. Iowa to fall to 14-6
MSU then secures the #2 seed and we are the #3 since they beat us, but Nebraska is out of the tiebreaker equation altogether and nobody pushes us to #4.
It doesn’t matter what happens between MSU and UM- we just need us to win and Neb to lose to get the three seed
Get your point, but would definitely prefer scUM wins for NCAA seeding purposes. Legitimately no good comes out of MSU winning.
which kinda sucks bc they got to play them at home while we got them at breslin without Boswell, but thems the breaks ha
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, I had started wondering into NCAA seeding territory, haha. At least when it comes to Nebraska, our quest for a #2 seed in the NCAAs (in St. Louis) and for a #3 seed in the BTT are very intertwined!
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