Week of 3/2 Bracketology

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#201      
Just a side note: Michigan will only go to Philadelphia if they are the number one OVERALL seed. Otherwise it’s not in their hands and they’d be sent to Buffalo.
So I think you're answering a big question I have regarding the NCAA Tournament venues for the first weekend. Here it is:

ARE ALL EIGHT VENUES AVAILABLE FOR THE COMMITTEE TO USE AS THEY PLEASE FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF PLAY? OR, AS I LOOK AT LUNARDI'S BRACKET TODAY, IS THE EAST REGION ALREADY "PRE-SET" WITH ITS 4 FEEDER SITES -- PORTLAND, ST. LOUIS, GREENVILLE, AND BUFFALO? OBVIOUSLY, THE FOUR EAST WINNERS FROM WEEKEND #1 WILL THEN GO TO WASHINGTON DC TO DETERMINE WHO MOVES ON TO THE FINAL 4.
 
#204      
The way Purdue has been playing recently, I have to think that Wisconsin has a better than 18% chance of beating Purdue. Not saying they should be favored, but this feels very low.
Agree but what scares me is senior night for 3 4 year starters
 
#206      
Ya I agree. But but don't lead with Go Iowa!

Maybe go with, a #3 seed is possible if ......
For me, the sports rivals (or rival-like opponents or whatever) that I "hate" fall into two camps.*

(A) Unambiguous Hate - I literally enjoy these teams failing, and I'd be happy if they lost every game and just continued to become more and more irrelevant, lol.
(B) Hate Within the Rivalry - I often hate these teams even more than the teams in Group A, but I see value in them not being a joke for one reason or another ... mostly to do with my team benefiting from the rivalry remaining respectable, fun, nationally noteworthy, etc.

Iowa falls in Group B for me. Our rivalry with them is just a lot more fun when both programs are at least respectable and their fans are just as invested as ours ... that second one is especially important for me, as I have a ton of Iowa friends and it's annoying when they just cut their losses and check out because they're bad and I get fewer bragging rights, lol. So, I have no problem rooting for Iowa when it benefits the Illini, and a silver lining would be that our rivalry could potentially return to 2020-2022 status if McCollum keeps building them up.

* For those curious, as an Illini / Cubs / Bears fan, this is how I'd personally sort some teams. Sorry about the OT rant, haha.

GROUP A
(1) Indiana Basketball - Every year of humble pie served to this arrogant and delusional fan base is not only enjoyable but objectively good for Illinois. The older fans will NEVER learn that they're just another program, but the younger fans are already growing up being at least somewhat skeptical of the stories of the good old days and how a return is just around the corner. There's only so much room at the top of the Big Ten, and neutering a traditional basketball contender right next door is great for the Illini. Plus, they're more obsessed with their rivalry with Purdue and even more delusional about their rivalry with Kentucky that there really is no incentive to "root for the rivalry to matter" or whatever. I want a 10-win Indiana basketball team that we pummel every year, haha.

(2) Northwestern Football - It's not really that I hate them that much, but we need to hammer home to all Illinoisans that this isn't some Iowa vs. Iowa State dynamic where we are "battling for Illinois" ... it's a Georgia vs. Georgia Tech dynamic where we are the Big Brother and we consider a loss to Northwestern to be something that, while it might happen from time to time, doesn't change that and is unexpected.

(3) Michigan Basketball - It's annoying enough to deal with Michigan being the conference's appointed Golden Child in football ... let's go back to the days of them being a joke of a basketball program like they were every year when I started getting into college basketball in the 2000s.

(4) Milwaukee Brewers - Nothing against the folks of Milwaukee (love that city) or Wisconsin (love that state!), but the Cubs are plenty full on rivalries. I absolutely loathe people who think it affords them status to "gatekeep" a rivalry, so I certainly won't claim that the Brewers "aren't our rivals" ... they are! Having many rivalries doesn't dilute the other, bigger ones ... Kentucky Basketball fans don't worry that their status is waning if they recognize Tennessee as a rival, haha. With that said, the NL Central is too crowded at the top if we always have to worry about a consistently good Brewers team, and we do!

GROUP B
(1) Missouri Basketball - Don't get me wrong, I HATE Missouri ... but it's just good for nobody involved when Braggin' Rights is a foregone conclusion and a joke. For one, it's a special atmosphere, and it would be a monumentally sad day in college sports if both sides ever determine to remove that game from St. Louis because it's no longer an event worth investing in. Building on that, it's the type of unique event that I think an entire generation of younger fans have not seen at its peak, and it would garner a lot of positive hype for our program and would be seen as cool and unique if/when it returns to the type of status that gets it on ESPN and FOX rather than SECN and BTN. A second more "tangible" reason here is that we are locked in to playing Missouri on a neutral floor every year. It's objectively good for us if they are top 50 in the NET, which REALLY isn't that hard to do, lol ... you just have to not suck!

(2) St. Louis Cardinals - I hate the Cardinals, but no true baseball fan can't have an enormous amount of respect for the tradition of that franchise and the (at least under normal circumstances) incredible support that city and Cardinal Nation in general has given that team over the years. It's the best rivalry in baseball, and I want both teams to be contenders at all times.

(3) Northwestern Basketball - In contrast to football, we are locked in to play the Kitties twice per year. It's just a huge inconvenience when they aren't at least top 75 in the NET so we can't pencil in a Quad 1 and Quad 2 victory each year!

(4) Green Bay Packers - I hate them and I hate their fans even more sometimes, but I can't help but maintain a fondness for a town that size (especially as someone who was born in not-too-dissimilar Peoria) having something as cool as an NFL team, let alone one of the more storied franchises with loyal fans. I'm also insanely jealous that they have handled the renovation and upkeep of Lambeau beautifully, while we completely botched the renovation of our historic and architecturally significant stadium to the point where we will now leave it and play in some soulless dome, inside like a bunch of pansies. This rivalry deserves two OUTDOOR, historic stadiums, period.

(5) Iowa Basketball - See comments above, but this rivalry becoming high profile is objectively good for us. I've known enough Iowa fans throughout my life and I have even seen enough polls on their message boards over the years to know that Iowa fans are likely the only other group besides Northwestern fans that would consider Illinois their biggest rival in basketball. Are other rivalries and long time series are great, but Indiana has Purdue, Purdue has Indiana, Michigan has MSU, Missouri has Kansas, etc. While Iowa does have Iowa State and (at least in hoops) lesser rivalries with Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, etc., the Illinois rivalry is still the best. Both fan bases deserve a mutual, nationally significant rivalry game, and it's less fun when Iowa is bad.
 
#207      
The way Purdue has been playing recently, I have to think that Wisconsin has a better than 18% chance of beating Purdue. Not saying they should be favored, but this feels very low.
Purdue is very broken right now. They should have lost yesterday - NW just gave it away. Perhaps they have just gotten tired of playing together after all these years.
 
#209      
As a reminder, our feelings on March 4th every year in the 2010's:
2010: "If we lose to Wisconsin on Sunday then we'll have pulled it off - from a likely 7-seed three weeks ago to the NIT." (We lost to Wisconsin, our fifth loss in six games, and went to the NIT.)

2011: "We HAVE TO beat Indiana in the finale or we'll be 8-10 in the Big Ten and back on the bubble." (We beat Indiana and got a 9-seed.)

2012: "How on God's green earth has a team that was ranked 22nd in mid-January now lost 11 of 13 to fall to 6-12 in the Big Ten?"

2013: "I know the bracketologists say we're in. But we're only 8-8 in the Big Ten. If we lose these final two, are we sure we're in?" (We lost the final two but were safely in even though we finished 8-10 in the Big Ten.)

2014: "I cannot believe we started the Big Ten 3-10. This late season run is nice and all, but 3-10 killed our Tournament chances. (It did indeed. We were a 2-seed in the NIT.)

2015: "We're on the wrong side of the bubble now but honestly, we still have a chance at the Tournament. Just beat Purdue this weekend and then win a game or two in the BTT." (We lost to Purdue. We lost in the opening game of the BTT. We went to the NIT.)

2016: "How is it even possible that Illinois basketball is 13-17 right now?"

2017: (This feeling was fanbase-wide on March 4th, 2017) "I don't know what this new Athletic Director will do, but if this four game winning streak late in the season to put us on the bubble means he's going to keep John Groce..." (It did not. He fired Groce and Jamall Walker coached the team in the NIT.)

2018: "With the BTT moved up a week, it's crazy that the season ended in February. This team was lucky to win 14 games but I like this Trent Frazier kid."

2019: "I really hope we win at Penn State on Sunday because if not, that's 20 losses and 20 losses is something that should never happen in Champaign." (We lost at Penn State.)After 21 NCAA Tournaments in 25 years from 1983 to 2007, we had fallen to *that*. And now that the good old days are here again, I've vowed to always remember how early March used to feel so helpless.

As is so often the case, Robert does a heck of a job breaking down the context of just how bad things were and showing how much we've bounced back. Please, let's never go back to those incredibly dark days.
Except for the 2008-2009 season, we were basically on bubble watch or terrible every year from the 2006-2007 season through the 2018-2019 season. We have not been close to the bubble for 7 straight years or from the 1999-2000 season through the 2005-2006 season.
 
#210      
Purdue is very broken right now. They should have lost yesterday - NW just gave it away. Perhaps they have just gotten tired of playing together after all these years.
The trio of Braden Smith, TKR and Fletcher Loyer is a fine group to build a team around and it’ll win more games than it loses, but the Boiler’s true dominance in recent years revolved around two key components:

1. The unicorn Zach Edey (no details needed)
2. A quality collection of role players that allowed the main guys to effectively work their games. This particular squad doesn’t have a Mason Gillis, Lance Jones or Camden Heide — thorns in so many opponents’ sides. And Cluff and Jacobsen are not even close to an Edey equivalent.

Purdue is a fine team… but its flaws are apparent where there were few in years past.
 
#211      

Teams seeded #13 or worse have only won 10 games over top 4 seeds since 2021, and Purdue had 30% of those losses in 3 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, lol. Fun fact, when you add in Calipari, they make up 50% of the list.

2021
#15 Oral Roberts over #2 Ohio State (First Round)
#14 Abilene Christian over #3 Texas (First Round)
#13 North Texas over #4 Purdue (First Round)

2022
#15 Saint Peter's over #2 Kentucky (First Round)
#15 Saint Peter's over #3 Purdue (Sweet Sixteen)

2023
#16 FDU over #1 Purdue (First Round)
#15 Princeton over #2 Arizona (First Round)
#13 Furman over #4 Virginia (First Round)

2024
#14 Oakland over #3 Kentucky (First Round)
#13 Yale over #4 Auburn (First Round)

2025
N/A

And the point of that isn't even to laugh at Purdue ... it's to point out that anyone with a brain knows Painter is a very good coach and Purdue has been a very good program, but crazy shlt happens in March! Can you imagine how Purdue fans felt before their 2024 run to the Championship Game? Lol, a lot worse than we did about the so-called "Second Weekend Monkey" on our backs pre-Elite Eight run.
 
#213      
So I think you're answering a big question I have regarding the NCAA Tournament venues for the first weekend. Here it is:

ARE ALL EIGHT VENUES AVAILABLE FOR THE COMMITTEE TO USE AS THEY PLEASE FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF PLAY? OR, AS I LOOK AT LUNARDI'S BRACKET TODAY, IS THE EAST REGION ALREADY "PRE-SET" WITH ITS 4 FEEDER SITES -- PORTLAND, ST. LOUIS, GREENVILLE, AND BUFFALO? OBVIOUSLY, THE FOUR EAST WINNERS FROM WEEKEND #1 WILL THEN GO TO WASHINGTON DC TO DETERMINE WHO MOVES ON TO THE FINAL 4.
Answering my own question below..............I had to rely on AI, which I've found over the past year to not always be 100% accurate:

"The committee does not have free‑form discretion over the eight first‑/second‑round venues. Those sites are pre‑assigned to specific Regionals, and the committee must place teams into the bracket using those predetermined site–regional pairings. They can maneuver within those constraints, but they cannot reshuffle which venue feeds which Regional."
 
#214      
am I crazy to think that I want the 2 seed in Arizona's bracket? I think uconn and Florida get matched up one way or another if they flip seeds. I'd rather play Arizona then Duke and I doubt we get put in Michigan's bracket. plus we usually play classics with them.

2 seed with Iowa State or Texas tech as our 3 seed would be ideal
 
#215      
am I crazy to think that I want the 2 seed in Arizona's bracket? I think uconn and Florida get matched up one way or another if they flip seeds. I'd rather play Arizona then Duke and I doubt we get put in Michigan's bracket. plus we usually play classics with them.

2 seed with Iowa State or Texas tech as our 3 seed would be ideal
Much rather we get paired with Arizona than Duke.
 
#217      
am I crazy to think that I want the 2 seed in Arizona's bracket? I think uconn and Florida get matched up one way or another if they flip seeds. I'd rather play Arizona then Duke and I doubt we get put in Michigan's bracket. plus we usually play classics with them.

2 seed with Iowa State or Texas tech as our 3 seed would be ideal
If the goal is to get to the Final Four, you'd want to avoid all of the #1s(I think FL will be the 4th).

It's a duh comment on the surface, but this is one of those years where there's a HUGE gap between the 1's and 2's. None of the four are a good option. If UConn got the #1, I'd take them for sure, followed by MI, if possible. Why? Because we've played both before. No surprises.
 
#218      
Our total record against projected NCAA tournament teams via bracket matrix is: 7-7.

Our record by seed:

1: 0-2
2: 0-1
3: 3-1
4: 0-1
5: 1-0
6: 0-1
9: 1-0
10: 1-1
11: 1-0

Based on that, I’m obviously much more confident in making the E8 than the F4.

Assuming we get a 2 seed and without factoring in upsets in the first two rounds, in the S16 we’d be matched up with a 3 or 6 seed. We’re 3-2 in those games.

In the E8, we’d be be matched up with a 1 or 4 seed. We’re 0-3 in those games.
 
#219      
Crazy how much Iowa State has fallen in the brackets. Vast majority projecting them as a 3seed. Before the TTU game, people talked about them being a legitimate contender or even favorite for the 1seed.

Why you play the games. Texas Tech did us a real good (and Arizona).
 
#220      
Our total record against projected NCAA tournament teams via bracket matrix is: 7-7.

Our record by seed:

1: 0-2
2: 0-1
3: 3-1
4: 0-1
5: 1-0
6: 0-1
9: 1-0
10: 1-1
11: 1-0

Based on that, I’m obviously much more confident in making the E8 than the F4.

Assuming we get a 2 seed and without factoring in upsets in the first two rounds, in the S16 we’d be matched up with a 3 or 6 seed. We’re 3-2 in those games.

In the E8, we’d be be matched up with a 1 or 4 seed. We’re 0-3 in those games.
And drilling down even further, these are those games vs. the #2 and #3 seeds where we would have been playing for an Elite Eight appearance:

L 82-85 in OT at #2 Michigan State (without Boswell)
L 80-83 vs. #3 Nebraska (buzzer beater in December)
W 78-69 at #3 Nebraska (without Boswell)
W 88-82 at #3 Purdue (without Boswell)
W 81-77 vs. #3 Texas Tech

Only losses were a buzzer beater back in early December (where we slept walk through the first half and have seemed like mostly a transformed team after that result) and a 3-point loss in overtime on the road without a starter. In general, we have gotten up for these types of games and performed very well.
 
#221      
If the goal is to get to the Final Four, you'd want to avoid all of the #1s(I think FL will be the 4th).

It's a duh comment on the surface, but this is one of those years where there's a HUGE gap between the 1's and 2's. None of the four are a good option. If UConn got the #1, I'd take them for sure, followed by MI, if possible. Why? Because we've played both before. No surprises.
I guess in my mind we have a difficult time getting to 4 or 5 on the s curve so we are looking at 6-8 on that in all likelihood. that's why I am choosing lesser of evils. of course I would rather play uconn than Arizona. I'm actually a little worried about Florida... they have a huge front court that I don't think we can defend and are on fire now.
 
#222      
I guess I'm my mind we have a difficult time getting to 4 or 5 on the s curve so we are looking at 6-8 on that in all likelihood. that's why I am choosing lesser of evils. of course I would rather play uconn than Arizona. I'm actually a little worried about Florida... they have a huge front court that I don't think we can defend and are on fire now.
Duke and Arizona are just really hard for me to judge. They often have looked head-and-shoulders better than the competition in a way that even Michigan hasn't, but I think Duke looks scarier as of today. I also think there is a significantly higher possibility that Arizona does something like grind its way to a Big XII Tournament title but then feels the toll of the Big XII gauntlet via a shocking upset (ala the 2021 Illini) compared to Duke cruising through their conference tournament and feeling even more unstoppable than before (ala the 2005 Illini).

I think I'd also take Arizona.
 
#223      
If the goal is to get to the Final Four, you'd want to avoid all of the #1s(I think FL will be the 4th).

It's a duh comment on the surface, but this is one of those years where there's a HUGE gap between the 1's and 2's. None of the four are a good option. If UConn got the #1, I'd take them for sure, followed by MI, if possible. Why? Because we've played both before. No surprises.
Not to say UCONN is a “good” option — but I don’t see much of a difference between them and the rest of the 2s. There’s a massive difference between them and the three other 1s.

Also, by rule, we won’t be in Michigan’s bracket.
 
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#224      
A fun and somewhat random Bracketology-adjacent exercise ... our record vs. every Big Ten team in the history of the BTT while we were ranked (i.e., removing the years we just sucked anyway, lol).

Indiana
2000 - #21 Illinois 72, #13 Indiana 69 (Chicago, IL)
2001 - Indiana 58, #4 Illinois 56 (Chicago, IL)
2003 - #13 Illinois 73, Indiana 72 (Chicago, IL)
2004 - #12 Illinois 71, Indiana 59 (Indianapolis, IN)
2022 - Indiana 65, #16 Illinois 63 (Indianapolis, IN)

Iowa
2021 - #3 Illinois 82, #5 Iowa 71 (Indianapolis, IN)
2025 - #24 Illinois 106, Iowa 94 (Indianapolis, IN)

Maryland
2025 - #11 Maryland 88, #24 Illinois 65 (Indianapolis, IN)

Michigan
2004 - #12 Illinois 74, Michigan 60 (Indianapolis, IN)

Michigan State
2000 - #5 Michigan State 76, #21 Illinois 61 (Chicago, IL)
2006 - Michigan State 61, #9 Illinois 56 (Indianapolis, IN)

Minnesota
2002 - #10 Illinois 92, Minnesota 76 (Indianapolis, IN)
2005 - #1 Illinois 64, Minnesota 56 (Chicago, IL)

Nebraska
2024 - #13 Illinois 98, Nebraska 87 (Minneapolis, MN)

Northwestern
2003 - #13 Illinois 94, Northwestern 65 (Chicago, IL)
2005 - #1 Illinois 68, Northwestern 51 (Chicago, IL)

Ohio State
2002 - #21 Ohio State 94, #10 Illinois 88 (Indianapolis, IN)
2003 - #13 Illinois 72, Ohio State 59 (Chicago, IL)
2021 - #3 Illinois 91, #9 Ohio State 88 in OT (Indianapolis, IN)
2024 - #13 Illinois 77, Ohio State 74 (Minneapolis, MN)

Penn State
2000 - #21 Illinois 94, Penn State 84 (Chicago, IL)

Purdue
1998 - #9 Purdue 68, #18 Illinois 47 (Chicago, IL)
2001 - #4 Illinois 83, Purdue 66 (Chicago, IL)

Rutgers
2021 - #3 Illinois 90, Rutgers 68 (Indianapolis, IN)

Wisconsin
1998 - #18 Illinois 66, Wisconsin 61 (Chicago, IL)
2004 - #10 Wisconsin 70, #12 Illinois 53 (Indianapolis, IN)
2005 - #1 Illinois 54, #23 Wisconsin 43 (Chicago, IL)
2024 - #13 Illinois 93, Wisconsin 87 (Minneapolis, MN)

Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington are N/A.

So we are 20-7 in the BTT when we have a team good enough to have a little number next to our names, including being 10-3 in such games at the United Center. When we are ranked #15 or higher, our record is 16-4. Fun fact ... Brad Underwood is 6-0 all-time in the BTT if he has a top 15 team ... let's keep that juju going at our Home Away From Home next weekend!
 
#225      
Torvik has us ranked #1 vs non-Q1A opponents and #4 vs non-Q1, but #10 vs. Q1A. EvanMiya also says we've been a fair bit worse against better opponents.

If those trends hold, then our chances are very good of advancing to the s16, but maybe less than we'd like to advance further. Fortunately, the non-B1G 3-seeds on bracket matrix right now are: ISU, who's also done worse against better opponents, and Texas Tech, who isn't full strength. If Gonzaga moves up to a 3, they have also done worse against better opponents and may not be full strength.
 
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