Week of 3/2 Bracketology

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#251      
Illini2010-11
Piotyr said:
Potential bid thievery potential as Belmont trails 48-41 at the half to Drake in the MVC quarters
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Looks like Belmont will be NIT bound (their NET is currently below Miami at 54 and will fall with a bad loss to Drake). Can't think the MVC is going to get multiple teams in.
 
#252      
Piotyr
Illini2010-11 said:
Looks like Belmont will be NIT bound (their NET is currently below Miami at 54 and will fall with a bad loss to Drake). Can't think the MVC is going to get multiple teams in.
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Their WAB rating was right on the edge going into today (49th), but a bad loss today would probably dip it below the line. Couldn't say I'd blame the committee too much though if they included Belmont at the expense of an under .500 major conference team.
 
#253      
Bucktown
Fighter of the Nightman said:
And needless to say, they will not be able to accommodate all of these guiding principles every year; if you are hellbent on getting the top 4 Big Ten and Big XII teams in different locations and you want to avoid rematches, you might "accidentally" put a team in a location where they face a crowd disadvantage ... like #3 Kentucky playing #6 Illinois in Milwaukee in front of a crowd that had at least twice as many Illini fans last year.

I'm guessing they go in descending order of this list, but I certainly wish they cared about the crowd part the most! :cool:
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Of course two of those exceptions are in play this year in the Big Ten--more than 4 teams in the top seed lines and 9 or more conference teams in the field.

Someone is going to have to be in Chicago with Michigan. If it were purely about home court advantage for Michigan then it's probably Nebraska, but why not us?
 
#254      
thefalcon5
I feel like we’re more of a lock on that 2 seed line compared to last week.

I won’t argue Florida as the top 2 seed, but I think there is one to be next up compared to MSU (assuming a loss to Michigan) and Houston (who’s doing their best to play themselves off the 2 line as a whole).

Maybe the damage has been with the wisky / ucla loss (which looks a lot less painful now).

I think even if we were to lose our first BTT game, we would have a strong case to remain a 2 seed. Now if Purdue knocks us off, that might be the final straw, but they been really bad as of late. I don’t think Nebraska jumps us without a deep deep run and ISU has been reeling as well. Outside of those teams I don’t think we get knocked down to a 3.
 
#256      
bavanga3
Piotyr said:
Their WAB rating was right on the edge going into today (49th), but a bad loss today would probably dip it below the line. Couldn't say I'd blame the committee too much though if they included Belmont at the expense of an under .500 major conference team.
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This year seems like a very strong year for the bubble. A lot of quality teams who have a number of big wins against really good teams. Its a bad year for Belmont to be on the bubble. Zero quad 1 games and 3 quad 3 losses. Then they go down by 20+ in the first round of the conference tourney? What an upset and what a way for their season to end. Gotta love March. They're close, but I think the competition on the bubble is way too strong this year if you start looking at all the team sheets of people on the bubble.
 
#257      
wc_illini
rdk573 said:
I agree with this analysis as they have Duke, Michigan, AZ and Florida at the best shot of final four.. (Captain Obvious)..With respect to us, I most likely see SW16 with a loss in OT (Hasn't that been foreshadowed by now??) with whomever to get the E8..

https://fivestarbracketology.com/20...2-2025-26-college-basketball-archetype-board/


"We are now sitting on 3 Juggernaut’s which is obviously unprecedented since we only have had 5 since 2002. Just to reiterate, all 5 of those historical teams have made the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Those saying oh maybe this will be a top heavy tourney I say unequivocally it will be. The top-5-6 teams are great to elite, giving us even a bigger group than we had last year. Last year it was 4 and they all made it to the Final 4. So yes, I expect these teams to get deep into the tourney, especially considering Duke is now right there with the 2015 undefeated Kentucky team in terms of overall net efficiency.


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The rectangles make no sense. I know some analyses have shown that balanced teams had better tournament success than imbalanced ones, but then an arc would make more sense than a rectangle. There's no reason to put us in the same category as Vandy and Louisville, or UVA in the same category as ISU.

Using arcs, the "solid" group might look like this:
1772829896633.png
 
#258      
Illinicpa14
thefalcon5 said:
I feel like we’re more of a lock on that 2 seed line compared to last week.

I won’t argue Florida as the top 2 seed, but I think there is one to be next up compared to MSU (assuming a loss to Michigan) and Houston (who’s doing their best to play themselves off the 2 line as a whole).

Maybe the damage has been with the wisky / ucla loss (which looks a lot less painful now).

I think even if we were to lose our first BTT game, we would have a strong case to remain a 2 seed. Now if Purdue knocks us off, that might be the final straw, but they been really bad as of late. I don’t think Nebraska jumps us without a deep deep run and ISU has been reeling as well. Outside of those teams I don’t think we get knocked down to a 3.
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The problem is Purdue vs us is a likely matchup. So we either beat Purdue or they have to lose Sunday or Thursday.

On the other side, likely Nebraska or MSU wins 2 Q1 games to get to Sunday. That team is likely a 2 if Nebraska beats Iowa at home.
 
#259      
Fighter of the Nightman
IF we lose to Purdue in the BTT AND you assume that's enough to knock us off the #2 seed line ... at that point you'd hope that Purdue and Nebraska make it to Sunday, and we move to fifth in the Big Ten pecking order. That way, MSU/Purdue/Nebraska satisfy the need to spread out the top 4, and we'd be put in Chicago as a #3 seed with Michigan. This of course says nothing about what #1 or #2 seed we'd want to face, purely thinking about getting to play at the UC.

EDIT: This is really (annoyingly) making me realize what a benefit it is to be a "good team" in a bad conference.
 
#261      
LouHenson
Fighter of the Nightman said:
IF we lose to Purdue in the BTT AND you assume that's enough to knock us off the #2 seed line ... at that point you'd hope that Purdue and Nebraska make it to Sunday, and we move to fifth in the Big Ten pecking order. That way, MSU/Purdue/Nebraska satisfy the need to spread out the top 4, and we'd be put in Chicago as a #3 seed with Michigan. This of course says nothing about what #1 or #2 seed we'd want to face, purely thinking about getting to play at the UC.

EDIT: This is really (annoyingly) making me realize what a benefit it is to be a "good team" in a bad conference.
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After 2005 in the Horizon, sign me up for that again. I know it is at the UC, but still great memories of our last S16/e8 in Chicago. Give me STL also while we are at it!
 
#262      
Homecoming 2019
I agree with this analysis as they have Duke, Michigan, AZ and Florida at the best shot of final four.. (Captain Obvious)..With respect to us, I most likely see SW16 with a loss in OT (Hasn't that been foreshadowed by now??) with whomever to get the E8..

https://fivestarbracketology.com/20...2-2025-26-college-basketball-archetype-board/


"We are now sitting on 3 Juggernaut’s which is obviously unprecedented since we only have had 5 since 2002. Just to reiterate, all 5 of those historical teams have made the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Those saying oh maybe this will be a top heavy tourney I say unequivocally it will be. The top-5-6 teams are great to elite, giving us even a bigger group than we had last year. Last year it was 4 and they all made it to the Final 4. So yes, I expect these teams to get deep into the tourney, especially considering Duke is now right there with the 2015 undefeated Kentucky team in terms of overall net efficiency.


View attachment 48032
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Oh no, not this chart! Reddit is already plagued with the arbitrary box analytics, not here too!
 
#263      
March2TheArch
Illinicpa14 said:
The problem is Purdue vs us is a likely matchup. So we either beat Purdue or they have to lose Sunday or Thursday.

On the other side, likely Nebraska or MSU wins 2 Q1 games to get to Sunday. That team is likely a 2 if Nebraska beats Iowa at home.
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And the second Q1 would be a Q1A win on the Saturday before Selection Sunday. And a loss to UM on Sunday has negligible impact.

I’m also not sure if being the top #3 seed is the worst thing if it puts us in UConn’s regional?
 
#264      
EmeraldCityIllini
Fighter of the Nightman said:
IF we lose to Purdue in the BTT AND you assume that's enough to knock us off the #2 seed line ... at that point you'd hope that Purdue and Nebraska make it to Sunday, and we move to fifth in the Big Ten pecking order. That way, MSU/Purdue/Nebraska satisfy the need to spread out the top 4, and we'd be put in Chicago as a #3 seed with Michigan. This of course says nothing about what #1 or #2 seed we'd want to face, purely thinking about getting to play at the UC.

EDIT: This is really (annoyingly) making me realize what a benefit it is to be a "good team" in a bad conference.
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Agreed.

Even more so when you think (like I do) we’re just flat out better than Nebraska, Purdue, and MSU.

Games must be played tho
 
#269      
Calvin
Looking at KP today, Duke is +40. Don't think I've ever seen that. #1 defense and a helluva an offense.

Bracket matrix has us as the last 2 seed above Purdue.
 
#271      
Fighter of the Nightman
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
Bradley won in 2OT. UIC won and gets to play Drake now in the Semis. Very good chance we get another in state team in.
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As someone born in Peoria (and whose dad went to grad school at BU), I had all but given up hope last night and stopped checking my ESPN app ... I was shocked to see they won in double OT! Will be rooting hard for the Braves today and hopefully tomorrow!
 
#272      
SkyysNotFalling
Fighter of the Nightman said:
As someone born in Peoria (and whose dad went to grad school at BU), I had all but given up hope last night and stopped checking my ESPN app ... I was shocked to see they won in double OT! Will be rooting hard for the Braves today and hopefully tomorrow!
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Was at the game. Was one of those games where you could feel that Bradley was close to pulling away on multiple occasions but Valpo would just go on shot spurts of 5 point or 7 point runs to keep it close. Finally in second OT Bradley pulled ahead and it was over.
 
#273      
joeybcrazy13
I figure we got to be on the bubble!!!! If only we had a coach..... Looking like the NIT or the 👑....
 
#275      
Iloveorangekoolaid
The NEC semifinal between LIU and Wagner currently playing is for a NCAA auto bid. Mercyhurst won the first semifinal earlier but is ineligible for postseason play because of their transition from D2.
 
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