Week of 3/2 Games Thread

[Fighter of the Nightman]

The analytics/metrics are far better at determining what teams are good what teams aren’t than basic human evaluation is. It’s why it exists. It can consider millions of outcomes at once, aggregate them all, and output a nice, easy to understand portrait of the strength of each team without bias or loss of context. If Indiana would play Miami OH on a neutral court they’d likely be favored by 10 points.

While that is probably objectively true, this line of (cold, hard) logic is at least in the same neighborhood of folks wanting to expand the NCAA Tournament because Indiana types get left out and they're "easily better than the #16 seeds," or arguing the Final Four should be a best-of-three series because that's a "better way to determine who's truly the best team." Both are factually true, but part of what makes college basketball in general and especially March Madness special and unique is that it's been better at retaining some of the magic and more "human" elements, even if it's at the expense of fairness or objectivity.

All that is to say, there should be a certain mystique to being undefeated no matter who you play, and it should be rewarded on a purely sentimental, tradition-based, subjective, etc. level.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

You are correct, it's just nice to not have anyone even close to taking our spot in the pecking order!

Also my mistake, Houston plays AT Oklahoma State.

It would be nice if OKST would knock off Houston.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

#3 Texas Tech loses at BYU (this is less important after they already lost to ASU)

Disagree with this. TTU is not a threat to jump us unless we flop. We need it to remain a Q1A win — #14 in the NET, has to be top15.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Disagree with this. TTU is not a threat to jump us unless we flop. We need it to remain a Q1A win — #14 in the NET, has to be top15.

Yeah, I just copied my original list, but I said in another post that I agree the balance has probably tipped in favor of our priority being keeping that Quad 1A win, given that TTU's ASU loss probably cemented them as a non-threat.

 

[SkyysNotFalling]

First NCAA Tournament ticket will be punched tonight in the OVC Tournament championship game in Evansville between Morehead State and Tennessee State. Game is set for an 8:00 PM CT tip-off and will air on ESPN2.

Love it! Thanks for the heads up.. I was looking at conference tournament schedules today and must’ve missed that one.. watching the smaller conference title games are so great.

 

[NarrowJ]

While that is probably objectively true, this line of (cold, hard) logic is at least in the same neighborhood of folks wanting to expand the NCAA Tournament because Indiana types get left out and they're "easily better than the #16 seeds," or arguing the Final Four should be a best-of-three series because that's a "better way to determine who's truly the best team." Both are factually true, but part of what makes college basketball in general and especially March Madness special and unique is that it's been better at retaining some of the magic and more "human" elements, even if it's at the expense of fairness or objectivity.

All that is to say, there should be a certain mystique to being undefeated no matter who you play, and it should be rewarded on a purely sentimental, tradition-based, subjective, etc. level.

If they’re undefeated they’ll get in regardless (means they won their conf tourney).

I agree it’s a good story and don’t deny the human element in that respect, but there’s a reason why all of the analytics and results-based and performance-based metrics exist, and that was really the point I wanted to make. If humans think Miami OH is a better team than Indiana, they’re wrong. If humans think Miami OH is a more “fun and interesting” team, then I agree with that for sure.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Arky is without Acuff… Mizzou still down 28-13.

 

[SkyysNotFalling]

Was at the late session at Arch Madness last night. Valpo/Bradley game was entertaining going to double OT. Was rooting for ISU in the second game, but they got smoked. Tried my best to get Lieb & Roger’s attention or an “I-N-I” back.. no luck.

 

[IllinitripleJ]

The analytics/metrics are far better at determining what teams are good what teams aren’t than basic human evaluation is. It’s why it exists. It can consider millions of outcomes at once, aggregate them all, and output a nice, easy to understand portrait of the strength of each team without bias or loss of context. If Indiana would play Miami OH on a neutral court they’d likely be favored by 10 points.

Just like in 2022 when Indiana had no business making the NCAA tournament. They ended up playing St. Mary's and got destroyed by 31 points. I would rather see Miami of Ohio then some crappy 10-10 Big 10 team like Indiana.

 

[NarrowJ]

Arky is without Acuff… Mizzou still down 28-13.

Would be nice if they didn’t suck, they were all the way up to 53 in NET… think they fell to 62

 

[illiniguy1234]

Hopefully Oklahoma State can do what Baylor couldn't. Phenomenal first half against Houston

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

Love your breakdown because it makes it easy to know who to root for. Quick question about these four games:

Why in reality do we care about any of these? If Illinois wins Sunday, there's nothing these teams can do that affect anything involving Illinois' seeding in the Bracket I would assume. If Illinois loses Sunday, nothing these teams do will matter anyway because Illinois will deserve its fate.

Correct me if I'm misunderstanding. Thanks!

There's a lot that can happen. As we sit here today, it is questionable that we're a #2 seed in the tournament and if we are, we want to be the best #2 seed. If we want St. Louis for the first and second rounds, we very easily could be behind Purdue and Iowa State for that spot. We want losses around us, while we win.

With regards to the BTT, we're currently the #4 seed. With an Iowa with over Nebraska, that bumps us up.

 

[wc_illini]

If they’re undefeated they’ll get in regardless (means they won their conf tourney).

I agree it’s a good story and don’t deny the human element in that respect, but there’s a reason why all of the analytics and results-based and performance-based metrics exist, and that was really the point I wanted to make. If humans think Miami OH is a better team than Indiana, they’re wrong. If humans think Miami OH is a more “fun and interesting” team, then I agree with that for sure.

Yeah, people who want MOH in should just say they want a feel good story. Nothing wrong with that opinion.

But claiming efficiency metrics are off by THAT much is not supported by evidence. Betting markets are aligned with metrics here too (as they usually are except in cases like injuries) - Indiana has better championship odds than MOH

 

[OrangeBlue98]

While that is probably objectively true, this line of (cold, hard) logic is at least in the same neighborhood of folks wanting to expand the NCAA Tournament because Indiana types get left out and they're "easily better than the #16 seeds," or arguing the Final Four should be a best-of-three series because that's a "better way to determine who's truly the best team." Both are factually true, but part of what makes college basketball in general and especially March Madness special and unique is that it's been better at retaining some of the magic and more "human" elements, even if it's at the expense of fairness or objectivity.

All that is to say, there should be a certain mystique to being undefeated no matter who you play, and it should be rewarded on a purely sentimental, tradition-based, subjective, etc. level.

The blind reliance on computers is why there was a scene in The Office where they drove a car into a lake because GPS told them to do so.

I’ve never advocated for ignoring metrics (and I know you understand that). I’ve always said you have to take the numbers into context so you have an appropriate view of the totality of a situation.

 

[illinifan1987]

Houston is down by 13 to Ok State
Suck on that Samscum!

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Apparently Purdue is —9.5 against Wiscy.

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

Bad close to the half for OKLA ST. Should be up way more than 4.

 

[TheFlyingIllini1317]

OkState thinks they got screwed at the end there, but they have to close the half better

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

Apparently Purdue is —9.5 against Wiscy.

That's about right. Senior night for Purdue and Wisconsin, while they have some nice wins, can have some real clunkers.

 

[lstewart53x3]

When did I say that?

I said put the 33-1 team in over the 20-12 team.

That’s not hard to understand. And we have to stop blindly relying on these computer programs to tell us what to think.

Using record alone to analyze the quality of a team is silly.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

If they’re undefeated they’ll get in regardless (means they won their conf tourney).

I agree it’s a good story and don’t deny the human element in that respect, but there’s a reason why all of the analytics and results-based and performance-based metrics exist, and that was really the point I wanted to make. If humans think Miami OH is a better team than Indiana, they’re wrong. If humans think Miami OH is a more “fun and interesting” team, then I agree with that for sure.

I would settle on they’re a clearly “more accomplished” team than Indiana, which should matter more than metrics.

 

[Illinicpa14]

If Houston loses I do not see them as a 2 seed - 7 Quad 1 wins but almost all of them are beating bubble teams on the road.

A home win vs TT (who they split with) and a neutral over a 4-6 seed Arkansas are their best wins.

 

[OrangeBlue98]

Using record alone to analyze the quality of a team is silly.

As is simply looking at a computer metric.

You look at all of the facets to make a more informed decision.

 

[NarrowJ]

I would settle on they’re a clearly “more accomplished” team than Indiana, which should matter more than metrics.

Indiana has more Q1 wins, Miami hasn't beaten anyone of any substance (Akron? okay)

They've ran through a bunch of Q3/4 opponents, and won a bunch of close games (top 2 percentile in KP Luck)

Indiana has 9 B1G wins... beat Wisconsin, Purdue, won at UCLA (Indiana only team to accomplish this)... those are accomplishments... how many B1G level teams has Miami OH beaten?

Yeah, people who want MOH in should just say they want a feel good story. Nothing wrong with that opinion.

But claiming efficiency metrics are off by THAT much is not supported by evidence. Betting markets are aligned with metrics here too (as they usually are except in cases like injuries) - Indiana has better championship odds than MOH

Exactly... Miami OH is not "more accomplished"... that's silly to say, imo

Analytics can be used but they are not a end all, be all. Human evaluation and actual results should have some bearing on at large bids. And the fact Indiana would be favored by 10 points is not relevant in the least.

It is certainly relevant. Isn't this whole discussion about which team is better? Why would a betting line not be relevant? Nah, it is

 

[Justan opinion]

The analytics/metrics are far better at determining what teams are good what teams aren’t than basic human evaluation is. It’s why it exists. It can consider millions of outcomes at once, aggregate them all, and output a nice, easy to understand portrait of the strength of each team without bias or loss of context. If Indiana would play Miami OH on a neutral court they’d likely be favored by 10 points.

Analytics can be used but they are not a end all, be all. Human evaluation and actual results should have some bearing on at large bids. And the fact Indiana would be favored by 10 points is not relevant in the least.