That's not really true. On the surface we have similar profiles... Both close in the NET (15 & 16). We have 13 quad 1&2 wins and they have 11.
They can still get the 5. Would need to beat Purdue (obviously) and have Wisconsin go 0-2 and UCLA go 0-1.
no way UK is worthy of a 3 seed.................they really really aren't....................
I'd rather play Maryland with Ivisic actually playing in the game. Queen won't go off against Ivisic the way he did in that game with Tomi sitting out due to illness. If Illinois gets a bracket with Michigan and Maryland in the 2/3 seeds, that's ideal to me. You miss the actual three best teams in Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Purdue until the final. I'm not sure if after last night's game that is still possible, but I hope it is. And then beat the crap out of one of those three best in the BTT Championship game.
I respect your bracket skills more than I do my own, but I cannot see a way we play Indiana/OSU (presumably in the 8-9 game) IF we beat Purdue. I think that win will make us at least a 7 seed and that if USC wins at UCLA we become a 6 seed. We may be guaranteed to play in the 8-9 game if we lose to Purdue (I am not certain about that, as I have not played with every possibility), but I see no way for us to wind up in that AM game if we beat the Boilermakers.
I like the narrative that we are a young, talented team that showed flashes of brilliance while figuring itself out; faced adversity with injuries, illness and internal conflict; and then fought back, putting it all together with a strong finish and a deep tournament run.
Ah, so the reason for this is that Indiana and OSU both have 9 wins with 1 to play and own tiebreaks over 7 win with 2 to play Minnesota and they play each other to end the season, meaning that the winner of Indiana-OSU will be 10-10 and locked into the 9 seed and the loser of Indiana-OSU will be 9-11 and locked into the 10.
By the way, I do in some ways miss making my BTT seeding spreadsheet which gave the statistical likelihood of each team getting a given seed. Been the first time I haven't done it in over 20 years. But now that someone else is making the pretty charts and tweeting them out, it just seems like more work than benefit at this point sadly.
Illinois is hurt by the fact that they ultimately have 11 losses and their average NET Win is 123 while average NET loss is 29. They have a good strength of schedule to keep them safely in but they lost a lot against the best teams they played (missed chances for a signature win) and the quality of their wins isn't that high even if the raw number of Quad 1 wins is solid. While the Losses aren't necessarily bad, they didn't run completely clean (@Northwestern, @Nebraska, @Rutgers and Home vs. USC aren't great losses). They have a ceiling to improve if they beat Purdue and then make the Semifinals of the BTT, but I think they're right about where they're projected at the moment.
We have one of the better resumes out there outside of any top 4 seed, especially if we beat Purdue
I do agree that their lack of a signature win limits them. But look at these resumes:
Just so many Quad 1 opportunities. If the Illini pick up between 2 to 4 more Quad 1 wins (which is possible given the remaining schedule), then we would have around 9-11 Quad 1 wins (and about a .500 win percentage against Quad 1 foes).
Compare us to a team like Clemson (projected 5 seed), who only has 5 losses. Their average wins are about identical, even if they have less Quad 1 wins. Yes, their average loss isn't good but it's not like our 5 worst losses look any better than theirs.
Not sure I follow, if they go 0-2 they're probably definitely an 8/9. Hopefully even 1-2 can get them to a 7 but we'll see. 3-1 and they could be as high as 6.
That is where I disagree. Many thought that by beating just Iowa that Illinois would be in the 8/9 game if they lost out. Winning at Michigan was huge. It puts Illinois in the 7 spot in many brackets (one could argue maybe slightly higher). There is really no opportunity at a bad loss going out. Assume two straight very close losses in Quad 1 games, the resume for Illinois is still very strong compared to peers.
