Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#151      
One Man Fast Break
Illini2010-11 said:
That is where I disagree. Many thought that by beating just Iowa that Illinois would be in the 8/9 game if they lost out. Winning at Michigan was huge. It puts Illinois in the 7 spot in many brackets (one could argue maybe slightly higher). There is really no opportunity at a bad loss going out. Assume two straight very close losses in Quad 1 games, the resume for Illinois is still very strong compared to peers.

I give a better than coin flip odds that Illinois would still get a 7 seed if the Illini lose the next two. I saw some saying that a loss to Purdue would mean a deep run would be necessary to get out of the 8/9 game. 1 win is an absolute guarantee that the Illini are at least a 7 seed. 2-1 (meaning a win against Purdue) and the Illini are a near lock for at least a 6 seed. 3-1, as you suggest, would actually mean a high likelihood of being in conversation for 5 seed (wins against Purdue and at least 1-2 other Quad 1 wins).
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They were at a 7 in about 2/3 of bracket projections (a couple of outliers had them better) that came out on Monday and an 8 in the other 1/3.

Issue with 0-2 is their raw record looks like a bit of an ugly 19-13. That but a lot of quad 1 wins really screams 8
 
#152      
Bigtex
One Man Fast Break said:
Illinois is hurt by the fact that they ultimately have 11 losses and their average NET Win is 123 while average NET loss is 29. They have a good strength of schedule to keep them safely in but they lost a lot against the best teams they played (missed chances for a signature win) and the quality of their wins isn't that high even if the raw number of Quad 1 wins is solid. While the Losses aren't necessarily bad, they didn't run completely clean (@Northwestern, @Nebraska, @Rutgers and Home vs. USC aren't great losses). They have a ceiling to improve if they beat Purdue and then make the Semifinals of the BTT, but I think they're right about where they're projected at the moment.
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IMO....6 hardest games this season are Ls Alabama, Tennessee, MSUx2, @Wisconsin, Duke

Then where do you rate these 5 wins: Wisconsin, Missouri, @Oregon, UCLA, @Michigan

for the most part underwood teams have beat teams they should and lost to better teams with a history of losing some head scratchers at home.

All of this to say - this supports your data regarding 11 losses and net 29 while wins are net 123.
 
#156      
Hambone61
Maryland just beat Michigan will likely be a 2 seed. Then Illinois, if it beats Purdue, will be a 7 seed and play Maryland if they win their first BIG tournament game. If Illinois loses to Purdue, they will face MSU. A real rough road to the semis!!!
 
#157      
RabidDawgClassic
Hambone61 said:
Maryland just beat Michigan will likely be a 2 seed. Then Illinois, if it beats Purdue, will be a 7 seed and play Maryland if they win their first BIG tournament game. If Illinois loses to Purdue, they will face MSU. A real rough road to the semis!!!
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Maryland is the one team I’d really like to avoid. But if we have to, we have to.
 
#161      
the juiceman cometh
Hambone61 said:
Maryland just beat Michigan will likely be a 2 seed. Then Illinois, if it beats Purdue, will be a 7 seed and play Maryland if they win their first BIG tournament game. If Illinois loses to Purdue, they will face MSU. A real rough road to the semis!!!
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Yelling Schitts Creek GIF by CBC
 
#162      
sacraig
RabidDawgClassic said:
Maryland is the one team I’d really like to avoid. But if we have to, we have to.
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Meh. We weren't playing "whole" when we played them. Bring it on! We just beat Michigan with two good bigs.

Either we are back to our old selves, in which case I'm confident we can beat any team in this league on any floor, or we are still in inconsistent struggle mode, in which case, whatever, well lose soon anyway.
 
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#163      
Rez
Hambone61 said:
Maryland just beat Michigan will likely be a 2 seed. Then Illinois, if it beats Purdue, will be a 7 seed and play Maryland if they win their first BIG tournament game. If Illinois loses to Purdue, they will face MSU. A real rough road to the semis!!!
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So Quad 1 opportunities to solidify a 6 seed? Sign me up.
 
#167      
Fly Illini Fly!
Not the greatest day, you could argue, for our "bracketology" - both UConn and Ole Miss, two teams right in our range, getting monster wins.
 
#168      
PepeSilvia
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Not the greatest day, you could argue, for our "bracketology" - both UConn and Ole Miss, two teams right in our range, getting monster wins.
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I don't know if I'd call either one of those monster wins(good wins sure).

UConn was favored at home and won against a Marquette team that's on ranked around 20-25 depending on what you use.

Ole Miss had a bigger win but were also only 2.5 pt dogs at home so not really surprising.
 
#169      
lstewart53x3
One Man Fast Break said:
Illinois is hurt by the fact that they ultimately have 11 losses and their average NET Win is 123 while average NET loss is 29. They have a good strength of schedule to keep them safely in but they lost a lot against the best teams they played (missed chances for a signature win) and the quality of their wins isn't that high even if the raw number of Quad 1 wins is solid. While the Losses aren't necessarily bad, they didn't run completely clean (@Northwestern, @Nebraska, @Rutgers and Home vs. USC aren't great losses). They have a ceiling to improve if they beat Purdue and then make the Semifinals of the BTT, but I think they're right about where they're projected at the moment.
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The committee has shown that total number of losses are not a major contributor to where you get seeded. I also don’t see them putting too much importance into average NET rankings of your wins and losses.

Duke, for example, has similar numbers. Average win, 118. Average loss, 18.

And I’m not sure what you mean by “Illinois’ quality of wins aren’t that high”?

The best win you can get on the NET team sheet is a Quad 1A win. These are wins between H: 1-15 | N: 1-25 | A: 1-40.

Illinois has 4 Quad 1A wins.
Purdue has 3.
Missouri has 4.
Wisconsin has 2.
Maryland has 3.
Iowa St has 2.
Duke has 4.
Houston has 4.

I only count 6 teams with more than 4 Q1A wins.

In terms of our losses, @Northwestern and @Nebraska are both literally quad 1 losses, so they aren’t even close to “bad losses”.

And then @Rutgers is a Quad 2A loss, which is fine loss. The USC loss hurts, but it is now up to a quad 2 loss, albeit Quad 2B.

Looking at the NET team sheet, 7 of our 11 losses were against Quad1A opponents.

Whereas,

Duke
Iowa St
Maryland
Wisconsin
St John’s

Have each played 7 or fewer Quad1A games all season.
 
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#170      
mysterio2525
lstewart53x3 said:
The committee has shown that total number of losses are not a major contributor to where you get seeded. I also don’t see them putting too much importance into average NET rankings of your wins and losses.

Duke, for example, has similar numbers. Average win, 118. Average loss, 18.

And I’m not sure what you mean by “Illinois’ quality of wins aren’t that high”?

The best win you can get on the NET team sheet is a Quad 1A win. These are wins between H: 1-15 | N: 1-25 | A: 1-40.

Illinois has 4 Quad 1A wins.
Purdue has 3.
Missouri has 4.
Wisconsin has 2.
Maryland has 3.
Iowa St has 2.
Duke has 4.
Houston has 4.

I only count 6 teams with more than 4 Q1A wins.

In terms of our losses, @Northwestern and @Nebraska are both literally a quad 1 losses, so they aren’t even close to “bad losses”.

And then @Rutgers is a Quad 2A loss, which is fine loss. The USC loss hurts, but it is now up to a quad 2 loss, albeit Quad 2B.

Looking at the NET team sheet, 7 of our 11 losses were against Quad1A opponents.

Whereas,

Duke
Iowa St
Maryland
Wisconsin
St John’s

Have each played 7 or fewer Quad1A games all season.
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Looks like our Wisconsin win is the only at risk of falling out of quad 1A. But Rutgers has a small chanve to become just a quad 1 loss if they can get a win or 2.

I'm hoping between quad 1A wins, 1 of our quad 2 losses being without KJ, and the lovely eye test (I know) that we can sneak up a seed. Let's just beat Purdue and get to the btt final and see what happens.

Side note: looks like we are right behind Purdue in the NET. Just like we were before the Michigan game.... Let's do a little leapfrog.
 
#171      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
Looks like our Wisconsin win is the only at risk of falling out of quad 1A. But Rutgers has a small chanve to become just a quad 1 loss if they can get a win or 2.

I'm hoping between quad 1A wins, 1 of our quad 2 losses being without KJ, and the lovely eye test (I know) that we can sneak up a seed. Let's just beat Purdue and get to the btt final and see what happens
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Yep, if I were to guess, if seeding were to take place today, we’d be a 7 seed. Finish the season 0-2 and we could drop down a line to an 8 seed. If we go 1-1, we hold serve at a 7 seed. If we win 2-3 more, we move up to a 6 seed.
 
#172      
The Sprouting Divot
lstewart53x3 said:
Yep, if I were to guess, if seeding were to take place today, we’d be a 7 seed. Finish the season 0-2 and we could drop down a line to an 8 seed. If we go 1-1, we hold serve at a 7 seed. If we win 2-3 more, we move up to a 6 seed.
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If Maryland shuts off our water (yet again...) in the BTT, I don't think we hold serve at a 7.
 
#173      
jrichisamazing
Playing Maryland in the BTT could be a statement game to the committee, especially if Morez is back. Beating them would show that we are healthy, and the mid-season slump was truly due to illness/injury. You never know, it might get us a seed bump.

Plus, we got completely embarrassed at home against them. If the guys can get revenge at full strength I think it would give them a good confidence boost.
 
#174      
DeonThomas
ILLfated said:
When does the big ten tournament bracket get released?
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I have interest in 3 more regular season games:

Illini to beat Boilers
Trojans defeat UCLA Bruins
MSU over Wolverines

We then secure the 6-seed and face #3 Michigan, if we make it to the quarterfinals. Also avoid Spartans until finals. I think Michigan is significantly overrated with all of those narrow victories this season.
 
#175      
OrangeBlue98
LvilleILL1 said:
Would not mind playing them again
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Agreed. I just don't see why everyone is so worried about them. We were decimated and played like total crap against them. Let's see how this goes with a (reasonably) healthy team playing much closer to its ceiling.
 
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