Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#201      
Illini2010-11
lstewart53x3 said:
We’ll see how it plays out this year, but I have a hard time believing the committee will prioritize metrics over hard data, wins & losses.
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The committee has a wide-range of tools at their disposal. Some of the metrics indicate a 7 or 8 seed (as the ones Toews mentions), others like the NCAA tool (NET) would say the team is a 4 seed. A lot is involved behind the scenes, but the quad system is very important for comparing resumes.

At this point of the season, the Illini resume stands up fairly well. Just so strange though to see the team having a seeding possibility of anywhere from a low 3 seed (winning out/BTT Final appearance) to a very high 8 seed (losing out and other teams around Illinois winning) with one game in regular season remaining.
 
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#202      
21ChampaignSt
Toews said:
It's more complicated than that now. Yes the quads are still used but they are specifically looking at resume metrics now as well. That's where we are suffering as we are averaging 29th in resume rating compared to being 15th in quad 1 and 2 games and high efficiency metrics. Our SOR, WAB, and KPI are all closer to 29.
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This is why the next 3 games are really important.

We need to root for IU over OSU this weekend, unfortunately. This would give us another Q1 game against OSU in the BTT tournament. If that happens and we can win our next 3, then we can go into the tournament with a stretch of 5 straight wins including 4 Q1 wins against:

#28 Michigan
#15 Purdue
#36 OSU
#12 Maryland

Gotta believe that would give our WAB and SOR numbers a nice boost.

Lots of ifs and thens though. First thing's first. Beat Purdue tomorrow.
 
#203      
Poe's Law
ugottabjoshinme said:
Wisconsin last year had 13 losses and was 5-9 in Q1 games and got a 5 seed.

If Illinois beats Purdue, wins a couple in the BTT, we will have 12 losses and as many as 10 Q1 wins. A 5 should be obtainable in this scenario but the resume reads even better than that.
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If we beat Purdue and go to the conference final, the committee is going to look at our Q1 wins and our NET Ranking and suddenly start buying into the “they were sick/injured narrative”. They’ll discount our losing streak and we end up with a 3 seed.
 
#204      
Fighter of the Nightman
Toews said:
Mizzou is our best win followed by home against Wisconsin and away at Michigan.
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I would say that depends on how you are valuing the location. Right now, the NET order goes #14 Wisconsin, #16 Missouri and #28 Michigan. FWIW, Oregon is right behind at #30. I seem to recall that the Committee places high value on impressive wins away from your home court (after all, that is where the NCAA Tournament will be played), and I wouldn't be surprised if they saw our wins at Michigan and Oregon as just as good as vs. Wisconsin at home, especially considering the margins of victory. I would tend to agree that, given it was a neutral site, Missouri is probably our best win.

REALLY would have been nice to get either one vs. MSU, especially in East Lansing.
 
#205      
OrangeBlue98
21ChampaignSt said:
This is why the next 3 games are really important.

We need to root for IU over OSU this weekend, unfortunately. This would give us another Q1 game against OSU in the BTT tournament. If that happens and we can win our next 3, then we can go into the tournament with a stretch of 5 straight wins including 4 Q1 wins against:

#28 Michigan
#15 Purdue
#36 OSU
#12 Maryland

Gotta believe that would give our WAB and SOR numbers a nice boost.

Lots of ifs and thens though. First thing's first. Beat Purdue tomorrow.
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Pretty much boiled it down the way we need it right now. I really feel like if Illinois wins tonight and then wins its first two BTT games (i.e. get to Saturday), the committee will look upon us awfully favorably. While I fully understand the data and metrics, there's a big part of me that just feels like winning the next three (which would be a five-game winning streak) will pretty much give the committee everything they need to seed Illinois reasonably well by the start of the weekend.
 
#208      
sacraig
The Sprouting Divot said:
A team like us with some good wins and an equal number of lousy losses, and one that has proven that it can beat anyone by 20+ and also lose to anyone by 20+ is a pretty solid candidate for the 8/9 game in my opinion.

My point was that if "bad Illinois" shows up for our first BTT game and we get pantsed again, it will negate any upward trajectory we might garner by having beating Purdue.
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I think the fundamental question is whether "bad Illinois" is a product of injury/illness or instead a feature of this year's team. I'm not sure we really know yet, and the last few games are about proving to the committee that it's the former.
 
#209      
The Sprouting Divot
sacraig said:
I think the fundamental question is whether "bad Illinois" is a product of injury/illness or instead a feature of this year's team. I'm not sure we really know yet, and the last few games are about proving to the committee that it's the former.
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Totally agree. And that brings me back to my original point that if Maryland destroys us again, I think a 7 seed is very optimistic, even if we beat Purdue.
 
#210      
Illini2010-11
The Sprouting Divot said:
Totally agree. And that brings me back to my original point that if Maryland destroys us again, I think a 7 seed is very optimistic, even if we beat Purdue.
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Nervous Here We Go Again GIF by Channel 7


A 20 win Illini team with 8 quad 1 wins will not get an 8 seed, even if they get destroyed by MD.

A win tomorrow night locks up at least a 7 seed, regardless of BTT results.
 
#212      
sacraig
illini0440 said:
You think a 6 seed is the best we can do?
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My guess is we could play ourselves into a 5 or maybe 4 if we make the BTT final. I'm a little skeptical we could get higher than 4, but stranger things have happened.
 
#213      
FreshlySqueezed
fuggles said:
This guy on reddit created a list of the top 50 programs. Unfortunately it doesn't have the year. The best Duke team in the kenpom era had an adjust em of 49.72. Insane.

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Those are program rankings, not individual season numbers. And that was from 4 years. Below is the Top 25 through 2024.

1741312914130.png


Pretty impressive that we're still top 20 when it includes, essentially, the worst stretch in program history which made us basically disappear for 1/3 of the time window.
 
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#215      
BalloonsTheElephant
illini0440 said:
You think a 6 seed is the best we can do?
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I think I'd we prove that "we are back" and it was just missed time and illnesses that cost us, we will be looked at kindly if we can win a couple more. I'm still not sure if I'd rather be a 6 and have to play a 3 and 2 or a 5 and have to play the 4, knowing I am going up against a juggernaut.
 
#217      
Oracle21
ugottabjoshinme said:
Wisconsin last year had 13 losses and was 5-9 in Q1 games and got a 5 seed.

If Illinois beats Purdue, wins a couple in the BTT, we will have 12 losses and as many as 10 Q1 wins. A 5 should be obtainable in this scenario but the resume reads even better than that.
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Wisconsin got to the finals of the BTT last year. That’s the only reason they got that high of seed with 13 losses.
 
#219      
fuggles
Calvin said:
Are you sure you're reading that correctly? If it's over that span, that would be very different from individual seasons.
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I don't know what he really did, but he claims to have gotten the data from kenpom. The source is listed in the thread. But yea the Duke numbers are much different then what Fresh posted.
 
#220      
fuggles
FreshlySqueezed said:
Those are program rankings, not individual season numbers. And that was from 4 years. Below is the Top 25 through 2024.

View attachment 40282

Pretty impressive that we're still top 20 when it includes, essentially, the worst stretch in program history which made us basically disappear for 1/3 of the time window.
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Interesting. For whatever reason your list does not include our 24.53 em from last year.

Yes I knew it was from 4 years ago and doesn't have the newer years. The Duke numbers are much different. Something is weird about this data.

What is the difference between progam rating and individual year rating?
 
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#221      
CleverHandle1
the juiceman cometh said:
Bracket Matrix now has us as a 7-seed. We are even ahead of Kansas now. I think a win against Purdue is probably enough to lock up the 7 (if we haven't already).
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There's a part of me that believes if the Illini beat PU, then I wouldn't be surprised if they are the last 6th seed.

That would be a huge Q1 win, imo.
 
#223      
FreshlySqueezed
fuggles said:
Interesting. For whatever reason your list does not include our 24.53 em from last year.

Yes I knew it was from 4 years ago and doesn't have the newer years. The Duke numbers are much different. Something is weird about this data.

What is the difference between progam rating and individual year rating?
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Program ratings aren't actually based solely on performance. It's super weird and probably why no one talks about these rankings.

 
#225      
Second place is 1st loser
I agree with you. We'd have to win tomorrow, then win the BTT.

We've played a great schedule, but even if we got to the final and lost(but beat Purdue tomorrow)... we'd be sitting at.....22-12? 12 losses just can't be ignored. If we lose tomorrow, we're looking at 13 losses. At best, were a 6 and at worst, a 9.
 
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