Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#351      
The Dying Illini
lstewart53x3 said:
No, it doesn’t. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has a sorting mechanism for qualifying wins and losses called Quadrants, which are disconnected from who’s a tournament and who isn’t. There are four Quadrants, Quad1, Quad2, Quad3, Quad4.

The NCAA then decided that wins obtained in Quad1 and 2 are labeled “good wins” with Quad1 wins being better and upper half Quad1 wins called Quad1A being the best wins available.

Whereas, Quad3 and 4 losses are “bad” losses with Quad4 losses being the worst available.

We currently have 8 Quad1 wins (which is the 9th most in the nation), 5 of which are Quad1A wins (which is the 6th most in the nation) and another 6 Quad 2 wins, bringing our total “good wins” to 14.

Meanwhile, we have 0 losses to Quad3 and 4 teams, meaning we have 0 bad losses.
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I understand the sorting metrics as much as any other non pundit. Ill be pounding my chest if they rise above the 5 seed line in the NCAAT.

I am just trying to be as objective and realistic with what I believe their ceiling will be given the circumstances. As I said in an earlier post. Ill gladly eat crow if they rise about the 6 line.

Most pundits and bracket matrix have them between the 7/8 line. Lot of potential impact in todays games and lets hope they continue to both win and rise in the potential seedings.

I-L-L
 
#352      
lstewart53x3
Second place is 1st loser said:
Isn't there quad 1, then quad 1A? I'll buy what you're selling, but a team like Kentucky flat out has better wins than we do. That's not arguable.

I don't disagree with you regarding the amount of quad 1 and quad 2 wins. I think that, all things being relatively equal, you can't ignore some of our losses and in the nature of how we lost.

I could be WAAAAY off base and probably am. If I take the O & B goggles off and I was doing a comparison.....I don't think that there are teams that got beat by 19 to Wisconsin, 14 to MSU, 20 to MD and 44 to Duke. Maybe that can be ignored?

On top of that, it can't be ignored that losses to NW, Rutgers and USC (who's teetering on a Q3 loss) aren't great.

From a macro level, you are 10000000% right, but if you really dig in(and they will), those are all major warts.

Again, you could be(and probably are) way, way more in the know, but it seems to be that a potion of our resume are ugly.
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Yes, there is Quad1A, which is the top half of Quad1. These are the best wins you can get. We have 5 Quad1A wins this season. From my count, that’s the 6th most in the nation.

Kentucky has 6 Quad1A wins, whereas Purdue and Maryland have just 3.
 
#353      
lstewart53x3
The Dying Illini said:
I understand the sorting metrics as much as any other non pundit. Ill be pounding my chest if they rise above the 5 seed line in the NCAAT.

I am just trying to be as objective and realistic with what I believe their ceiling will be given the circumstances. As I said in an earlier post. Ill gladly eat crow if they rise about the 6 line.

Most pundits and bracket matrix have them between the 7/8 line. Lot of potential impact in todays games and lets hope they continue to both win and rise in the potential seedings.

I-L-L
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I still don’t know if we’ll land a 5 seed. I personally think a 6 seed is the most likely outcome. I just want to make sure people reading the board understand what the selection committee is looking at to make a decision and that’s the quadrant system, not who is and who is not a tournament team.
 
#354      
Navy_illini
Second place is 1st loser said:
Let me ask you this because you're putting a ton of weight into the Q1 wins and really nothing into the losses...If we have the 9th most Q1 wins, why would a 7 seed be our floor? What's the metric driving that figure down?
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Each committee member independently evaluates a vast amount of information during the process to make individual decisions. It is these qualitative, quantitative and subjective opinions -- developed after hours of personal observations, discussion with coaches, directors of athletics and commissioners, and review and comparison of various data -- that each individual ultimately will determine their vote on all issues related to selections, seeding and bracketing.

The NET has two components: the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors the result, the game location and outcome. The other component is net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), which is adjusted to account for the strength of the opponent and the location of the game.

www.ncaa.com

How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness

The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
 
#355      
pweo
https://bauertology.com/2025/03/08/bauertology-3-8-25/ demonstrates why getting to a 6+ would be nice with current projections. Michigan St and Wisconsin getting 2s would slot us into a 2nd round against Tennessee, Alabama, or Florida (whichever SEC team doesn't get the last 1) if we land at 7.

I don't hate our chances in most of those matchups (Florida is scary) but I would prefer to see them in the Sweet 16 or later
 
#356      
lstewart53x3
Second place is 1st loser said:
Let me ask you this because you're putting a ton of weight into the Q1 wins and really nothing into the losses...If we have the 9th most Q1 wins, why would a 7 seed be our floor? What's the metric driving that figure down?
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Our results based metrics, which are also featured on our team sheet:

KPI: 23
SOR: 32
WAB: 26

Those point towards a 6-7 seed.
 
#357      
WhiteHorseWings
Illinijoe said:
People really need to review the actual objective facts. There isn’t a world where almost any metric let alone the aggregated have them as a 28-32 and 8 seed. Lunardi actually is right - a 6 right now. Could argue a 5 if they take into account injuries. People are really out of touch with reality so I encourage them to review those teams that are on the actual 8 line as well as 5-6 line.
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Facts went out of fashion years ago
 
#362      
ejam21
The Dying Illini said:
Have to agree with you regardless of the odd string of illnesses that hit Illinois during this season.

They still lost at home to USC, at Rutgers and at Nebraska. All three of those teams are not making the tournament field and that matters to the committee. The lack of marquee home wins will hurt them too.

Maryland always gives us fits and we did not have Tomi but still a home loss, missed opportunity vs Tennessee at home and the USC loss was just inexcusable. Those matter.

Where ever the fellas land theyll have to earn that second weekend but what gives me solace is we are seeing key glue guys emerge (Tre, Ben in his limited role) Kylan gettings his offensive confidence back, KJ being KJ when we need him to be KJ and Will has just been an absolute revelation since the OSU home win.

They are trending where they need to be. Go get a couple wins in the B1G Tourney and if they make the final, hell yea. They are where they want to be right now given the up and down season.
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We have 5 Quad 1A wins, which is i think top 10-ish from a resume perspective

We arent the only team in this seed range losing to teams not in the field


Lets look at the other 7s:

Memphis: wichita state (Net 123), Temple (168), arkansas st at home (90), those 3 losses are worse than our Worst one, which is an 80
BYU: providecne (95), TCU (73), Utah (66) Cincy (44)
UCLA: Rutgers (80), Nebraska (57), Minnesotra (92), New mexico (41), UNC (38)

We dont have a monopoly on Out of field losses in this range, and again have more quad 1As and quad 1s than all these 7s
 
#363      
lstewart53x3
Navy_illini said:
NET: 16 point towards a 4 seed
T rank: 18 points towards a 5 seed
Kenpom: 17 points towards a 5 seed
BPI: 20 points towards a 5 seed

Additional metrics that are used
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Yep, with those metrics and our quad wins, I see us as a seed 6 now if the selection committee were to make their decision today. I feel like a 5 seed is still in play and maybe even a 4 seed if we were to win the BTT entirely.
 
#364      
IlliniFan42
We're currently on the 6/7 line in my opinion. I think winning the BTT puts us in the 5 conversation, but don't think we can do better than that, I think 5 is our absolute ceiling.
 
#365      
skyIdub
The BTT championship game does not factor in seeding.

The game is too late on Sunday.
 
#367      
OrangeBlue98
The Dying Illini said:
Not trying to be a debbie downer but there is a extremely low chance we rise above the 5 line. Ill happily eat crow if it happens but 5 seems to be our ceiling.

We are still solidly on the 7 line with a chance to jump to the 6 maybe 5 if we make a run in the BTT.

Losses today by Marquette, Miss State, AZ would help out case to continue towards a 6
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We are a 6 right now. A five is in the picture with two wins next week.
 
#369      
The Dying Illini
OrangeBlue98 said:
We are a 6 right now. A five is in the picture with two wins next week.
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Screenshot 2025-03-08 at 5.27.14 PM.png


We are not on the 6 line right now. But again today does not matter its next Sunday. Take care of business in the BTT and still believe a 5 is our ceiling
 
#371      
BillyBob1
Palm still has Wisconsin as a 2 seed after todays loss to Ped St
 
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