Weber with NIL is better than Underwood with NIL
Wisconsin 91, Illinois 88 OT Postgame
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So it's a difference in expectations along with risk tolerance.
Neither is right and neither is wrong. I'm with Indy, I want tourney success and that's where Brad has fallen short. I hate getting pumped up for March just to get donkey kicked in the junk year after year.
I just don't see Brad being the guy to get us there. He's a good to great recruiter, mediocre bench coach and roster builder. Oddly, this is exactly what the sour grapes Illini fans used to spout about Self after he left. Wasn't true for Bill, but pretty darn accurate for Brad.
Neither is right and neither is wrong. I'm with Indy, I want tourney success and that's where Brad has fallen short. I hate getting pumped up for March just to get donkey kicked in the junk year after year.
I just don't see Brad being the guy to get us there. He's a good to great recruiter, mediocre bench coach and roster builder. Oddly, this is exactly what the sour grapes Illini fans used to spout about Self after he left. Wasn't true for Bill, but pretty darn accurate for Brad.
The discourse shouldn't be about firing Brad because it won't/shouldn't happen. But Brad does the same thing every year only for it to blow up in our faces in March. Loyola, Arkansas, Houston, UConn, Kentucky...we always come out flat, uninspired, and overwhelmed by quicker guards. I'm not saying our staff is bad. But sometimes you have to make changes when things get stale. Look at the way Bielema makes changes with staff (after a 9 win season). That's what I want to see from Brad
For the people who want Brad fired… I’m not sure how we would carry that out?
For starters, here’s the deal he signed in the summer:
For starters, here’s the deal he signed in the summer:
Short answer: not gonna happen (I know you know that)
If that bar was any lower, we'd all trip over it.
Solid take …
100% this.
Whether we like it or not, every team’s success is defined by how far they go in the tourney.
BU’s teams perform well in the regular season but last 2 years have looked like they’re limping to the finish line by March.
IMO, people are still pissed about the Loyola loss…if we went to the out S16/E8 that year and then again 3 years later to the E8 with TSJ, there would be a lot more grace towards BU.
One side can be hot. The other side is a blazing inferno of chaos.
DICKnaggie
- Champaign
And Bruce who understands he needs to not put loyalty to staff over success. Guy has a golden heart, but that doesn't always work out.
It's always the same for me with Brad...I'm happy to win 20 games a year and make the tourney. I'm also apathetic and understand that he's not taking this program "over the top". I can enjoy it for what it is
But as to Brad leaving...?
He's not getting fired with his recent contract extension.... Along with the optics Whitman would face after getting rid of a guy who won consistently.
So we would likely need Brad to find another gig to facilitate a move---likely a better job at that.
Where would Brad leave Illinois for that would have an opening soon?
KSU? Unlikely, at this point even Scherz at SLU is opting out. Short of them over paying by 2 mil a year...I don't see this happening.
Kansas, Duke, UNC, Kentucky are among top jobs I could see him bolt for + likely have a change soon through retirement, NBA, or hot seat.
Brad isn't in the top ten of any short list mentioned...
But as to Brad leaving...?
He's not getting fired with his recent contract extension.... Along with the optics Whitman would face after getting rid of a guy who won consistently.
So we would likely need Brad to find another gig to facilitate a move---likely a better job at that.
Where would Brad leave Illinois for that would have an opening soon?
KSU? Unlikely, at this point even Scherz at SLU is opting out. Short of them over paying by 2 mil a year...I don't see this happening.
Kansas, Duke, UNC, Kentucky are among top jobs I could see him bolt for + likely have a change soon through retirement, NBA, or hot seat.
Brad isn't in the top ten of any short list mentioned...
I think the underlying issue isn't poor performance at the end of seasons or in the NCAAT, but our defense against good teams.
This season, it's especially bad (efficiencies here are adjusted for opponent):
vs Q2+ (17-0): #2 offense (130.2), #9 defense (92.6), #3 overall (+37.6)
vs Q1 (7-8): #2 offense (132.4), #85 defense (102.8), #12 overall (+29.6)
Since the 2019/20 season:
vs Q2+ (111-11): #12 offense (116.8), #7 defense (92.9), #9 overall (+23.9)
vs Q1 (51-59): #9 offense (119.0), #51 defense (97.4), #14 overall (+21.6)
Note: the top ~8 have winning records against Q1: Houston (68%), Gonzaga (67%), Duke (67%), Arizona (62%), UConn (61%), Purdue (54%), Alabama (53%), Kansas (57%)
We will always find something to complain about on the offensive end, but overall we've been good on that side regardless of our opponent (even slightly better against good opponents), while our defense against good opponents has consistently let us down.
In the NCAAT over that span, against bad opponents we've still been good overall (same rank as above) and decent on defense, so I wouldn't say that BU just is bad in the NCAAT. But we have been especially bad against good teams in the tournament, and in these our offense has struggled even more than our defense. The sample sizes here are very small, however, so I'm more concerned about what the 110 games above say about our defense.
vs Q2+ (4-0): #10 offense (120.2), #14 defense (91.0), #9 overall (+29.2)
vs Q1 (2-5): #63 offense (107.0), #36 defense (93.5), #59 overall (+13.5)
This season, it's especially bad (efficiencies here are adjusted for opponent):
vs Q2+ (17-0): #2 offense (130.2), #9 defense (92.6), #3 overall (+37.6)
vs Q1 (7-8): #2 offense (132.4), #85 defense (102.8), #12 overall (+29.6)
Since the 2019/20 season:
vs Q2+ (111-11): #12 offense (116.8), #7 defense (92.9), #9 overall (+23.9)
vs Q1 (51-59): #9 offense (119.0), #51 defense (97.4), #14 overall (+21.6)
Note: the top ~8 have winning records against Q1: Houston (68%), Gonzaga (67%), Duke (67%), Arizona (62%), UConn (61%), Purdue (54%), Alabama (53%), Kansas (57%)
We will always find something to complain about on the offensive end, but overall we've been good on that side regardless of our opponent (even slightly better against good opponents), while our defense against good opponents has consistently let us down.
In the NCAAT over that span, against bad opponents we've still been good overall (same rank as above) and decent on defense, so I wouldn't say that BU just is bad in the NCAAT. But we have been especially bad against good teams in the tournament, and in these our offense has struggled even more than our defense. The sample sizes here are very small, however, so I'm more concerned about what the 110 games above say about our defense.
vs Q2+ (4-0): #10 offense (120.2), #14 defense (91.0), #9 overall (+29.2)
vs Q1 (2-5): #63 offense (107.0), #36 defense (93.5), #59 overall (+13.5)
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Just a genuine question - If Brad is as good of a coach as so many on here think he is …
How come every time there’s a big opening he’s never mentioned ?
Especially before the newest extension …
How come every time there’s a big opening he’s never mentioned ?
Especially before the newest extension …
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because hes 62?
Theres a reason Sampson is never mentioned at big openings either even though in the immediate it's a guaranteed home run hire. And also his buyout is high.
Fair enough. But for comments like these:
I’m more curious regarding the HOW (that’d happen) than the WHY (which everyone’s focused on questioning).
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He can't leave for a college job right? It has to be a NBA gig or retirement?
I did some March Madness math. I ONLY did 2021 and after so no excuse about taking over a down program. Illinois had no worst than top 15 financial investment and talent during this time period.
17 different teams made a final four.
8 additional teams made multiple elite 8 or sweet 16.
8 additional teams made a single elite 8.
Factoring in some points for regular season success I think that puts Illinois success from 2021 to present around 25th best in the country which I think would sound about right to most people (since we only finished inside in Round of 32 once).
17 different teams made a final four.
8 additional teams made multiple elite 8 or sweet 16.
8 additional teams made a single elite 8.
Factoring in some points for regular season success I think that puts Illinois success from 2021 to present around 25th best in the country which I think would sound about right to most people (since we only finished inside in Round of 32 once).
I’m curious of the 9 teams listed how many times have each made it to the 2nd weekend in the past 5 years?
For fun I asked AI, here is its response.
Brad Underwood’s buyout if fired without cause is massive at $25.9 million as of April 1, 2025, making a firing unlikely unless “for cause” (e.g., major violations). No recent firings or hot seat talk for him in March 2026 sources, so replacement speculation is hypothetical.
Brad Underwood coaching against Michigan in January 2020.
Illinois’ outflow to fire Underwood: $25.9M buyout (spread over time, offset if he mitigates by working elsewhere).
Inflow from new coach’s old school: $0‑6M buyout paid to them (e.g., $0 for free agent, $2M for Schertz). Net cost to Illinois: ~$20‑26M upfront + new $4M+/year salary.
New coach gets 6‑year deal like Underwood’s ($4.4M salary start + $1M+ retention bonuses + $1M performance max). Recent hoops firings show settlements often cut buyouts 20‑50% via negotiation.
Brad Underwood earns about $4.4M base salary annually under his new 6-year Illinois extension through 2031, plus $1M+ retention bonuses starting 2026 and up to $1M performance incentives for NCAA/Big Ten success. Firing him now costs Illinois a whopping $25.9M buyout, so replacement candidates like Josh Schertz or Chris Holtmann would require $20-26M net plus a matching $4M+ deal—highly unlikely without major cause. Overall, his package ranks him top-15 nationally with strong job security
Brad Underwood’s buyout if fired without cause is massive at $25.9 million as of April 1, 2025, making a firing unlikely unless “for cause” (e.g., major violations). No recent firings or hot seat talk for him in March 2026 sources, so replacement speculation is hypothetical.
Top hypothetical candidates
Hypothetical top 5 to replace him at Illinois (Big Ten blue blood with top facilities, $4M+ salary norm, huge NIL pool, arena upgrades).- Josh Schertz (Saint Louis): Hot name with 40- record last two years, 24-1 this year; proven winner at multiple levels. Illinois would offer ~$4.5M salary + bonuses, 6‑year deal; Saint Louis buyout low (~$2M max).
- Assistant coaches like Orlando Antigua (Illinois staff) or Big Ten assistants: Internal promo cheap; no buyout, salary ~$3M start. Proven recruiters for Illinois’ roster.
- Chris Holtmann (ex-Ohio State): Big Ten experience, available after firing; knows recruiting in Midwest. Ohio State buyout ~$3M; Illinois offer $4M+ with retention bonuses.
- Eric Musselman (Arkansas) or T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State): Proven mid‑majors to Power 5 success; buyouts $4‑6M range, Illinois matches $4.5M salary + NIL push.
- SIU’s Scott Nagy or Bradley’s Brian Wardle: Local mid‑major success, cheap buyouts (<$1M); Illinois jumps them to Big Ten stardom with $3.5M+ deal.
Total transaction costs
Brad Underwood coaching against Michigan in January 2020.
Illinois’ outflow to fire Underwood: $25.9M buyout (spread over time, offset if he mitigates by working elsewhere).
Inflow from new coach’s old school: $0‑6M buyout paid to them (e.g., $0 for free agent, $2M for Schertz). Net cost to Illinois: ~$20‑26M upfront + new $4M+/year salary.
New coach gets 6‑year deal like Underwood’s ($4.4M salary start + $1M+ retention bonuses + $1M performance max). Recent hoops firings show settlements often cut buyouts 20‑50% via negotiation.
Brad Underwood earns about $4.4M base salary annually under his new 6-year Illinois extension through 2031, plus $1M+ retention bonuses starting 2026 and up to $1M performance incentives for NCAA/Big Ten success. Firing him now costs Illinois a whopping $25.9M buyout, so replacement candidates like Josh Schertz or Chris Holtmann would require $20-26M net plus a matching $4M+ deal—highly unlikely without major cause. Overall, his package ranks him top-15 nationally with strong job security
If he leaves Illinois
Underwood owes Illinois a buyout to leave for another job (historically $8M+ decreasing yearly, but updated in new deal); his 2025 extension adds a non-compete clause barring him from any other NCAA basketball program unless "material changes" occur.There is no why and there is no how.
It’s like trying to fit a key into a lock that was never even built.
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