Wisconsin 91, Illinois 88 OT Postgame

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#1,226      
Especially in the UCLA game and the Wisconsin game yesterday, the games never should have come down to one play, probably not even two or three plays. In those games, we got up big, quit doing what got us up big and then could not get a rebound or make a shot/FT when the game boiled down to the one play.
It’s probably the definition of insanity, but I expect the Illini to come through the next time a game comes down to one play.
I am going to say this realizing it is unfair to put it on one player. For most of the year when Illinois had to have a big shot Wagler provided that. He was a killer.

The last month that guy, that alpha, THE man, just hasn’t been there. Keaton has had chances to change the outcomes of several games and he hasn’t made the shots. Yesterday was the latest example. He had a shot with the game on the line from 5 feet and he missed it.
 
#1,227      
Probably? But they didn't, and that's worked out great for them. And that's the point.

Every single season, 364/365 teams either end on a loss or fail to make the tournament entirely.


Yes, but it's more than that. BU makes the tournament every year. The idea that he's "hit a ceiling" is nonsense. Andy Reid was the prototypical "will never win the big one" coach until year 21(!!!) as a head coach. Then he won it. And then he won it two more times.

A good coach is a good coach. When you have one, you thank your lucky stars and you ride it out because there's a much bigger chance he's going to eventually break through than that his replacement is even as successful as he is.
Yeah, how many other coaches have won 20+ games while playing in a P5 conference the last seven seasons. Name them and then pick the one that we could hire away from their current job - and then try to raise the money to pay the buyouts, lol.

Oops, accidentally clicked on the post-game thread. Generally, I avoid that after a loss.
 
#1,228      
Currently 24th on Torvik and was 18th before our best defensive player missed 7 games

I do fully realize that you did make the comment in the context of enhancing the staff. You want to replace guys after they shown marked improvement? I really don’t.

Despite opinions people may have about the final possession of a basketball game basically deciding which team is better, I don’t agree with it. And I can see Illinois is just a few lucky bounces in these coin flip games from basically being a 1 seed.
I agree with you on a lot of things, and have defended our late season performance since our overall metrics have remained relatively strong.

But after spending more time looking at our metrics against good teams, I've changed my mind. Here's our defensive efficiency ranking against all opponents and against Q1 opponents by year:

Year: AdjD rank vs all, AdjD rank vs Q1
2019/20: #36, #54
2020/21: #10, #44
2021/22: #25, #81
2022/23: #33, #150
2023/24: #91, #113
2024/25: #41, #75
2025/26: #24, #101

2019/20-now: #19, #51

So our overall defense is finally back in line with the beginning of this stretch, but our defense against Q1 teams is still really bad, and it was never good. Our offense over this stretch has generally been #10 overall, and #9 against Q1, so it's just a problem in defense.

I generally agree that a #10 program - while not likely to win a championship in any given year - is likely to have some peak years that may get us there (sure, I'd rather be the top ~5 and have a chance every year, but that requires $ and/or getting really lucky with a unicorn coach). But if we are top 10 while playing worse against good teams, the odds of that go down significantly.

I'm not saying our odds of getting someone better than Brad are worth testing. Just that this has been going on long enough to wonder what the heck is going to fix it.
 
#1,229      
You said:



Has the (you admit) improved defense translated to more wins? Yes it already has. And we still have more games to play yet. The defense has improved from the 40 range to the 20 range so it’s just odd to me to include Crocker in the list of complaints.
I think this isn't a scheme issue as much as a worn down issue.
 
#1,230      
I find myself looking at our bench and wishing Ty was able to play. Yes I know all about his shooting issues, but the man knows how to grab a rebound and hold on to it. It’s like we are playing volleyball of late. Batting the ball with one hand, or a step slow with long rebounds. C’mon Illini!! Let’s GO! 🧡🏀💙
 
#1,231      
Was at the game yesterday and finally recovered enough to post some thoughts. Boswell being taken out of the game early was a big loss, but I thought we actually played decent defense in the first half. Second half defense was non-existent and Boyd and Blackwell got whatever they wanted and made some big shots, just the norm for us this season to have guys go nuclear. Hate to call him out, but Tomi is giving us nothing right now. Can't shoot, can't rebound, can't jump, slow. Looks like he's just collecting a pay check at this point. Andrej was getting going early and taking it to the basket, but we subbed him out and never really went back to that. Rotations right now are terrible. Offensivley we got to chucking 3's again with the wrong guys and let them back in the game twice. Don't get me started on the refs, atrocious officiating.

To make it worse, I was sitting around some fans of other teams and they were less than complimentary about our coaching (or lack thereof). Literally had a Purdue fan tell me we should be way better than we are, given the talent we have but Brad is hurting us. Pointed out the fact that he is relying on his son too much. I had to push back a little bit because I don't think that's totally true, but to know that's what other programs are thinking is worrisome. Really hoping we can put it all together again and make a run, we'll see.
Wait...a Purdue guy was saying WE should be way better than we are?
 
#1,232      
Such an unfair thing to say. Some people wear their emotions on their sleeve. Others are reserved. Doesn’t mean they are any less passionate or hard working.
"We got to have someone nasty enough and give a !!!! enough that want to go grab a rebound. It's very frustrating." --Brad Underwood
 
#1,233      
"We got to have someone nasty enough and give a !!!! enough that want to go grab a rebound. It's very frustrating." --Brad Underwood
Uhhh...how about morez johnson
 
#1,234      
a bunch of small issues add up to a major one:
Wagler doesn't seem himself, how hurt is he?
Ivisics' have let the pressure of the moment effect their shooting and aggressive play/rebounding
injuries have reduced rotations to 6 guys periodically
passing up shots late in the game, guys who wanted them don't any more.

all that being said: the recurring late year/ tournament issues over the last 4-5 years and can only be attributed to the person who has been on the bench for that entire time....
 
#1,235      
I was curious, given Underwood has won the most conference games over the last decade or so, what does the conference title count look like?

Underwood - 1
Izzo - 4
Painter - 4
Gard - 2
May - 1 in 2 seasons

Underwood has the same amount of regular season titles as Juwan Howard. Yep, it's true. You've got to hang something in the rafters or at some points fans are going to get tired of 2nd place. In fact even more so, because we can see the prize and can't reach it.
 
#1,236      
Underwood has the same amount of regular season titles as Juwan Howard. Yep, it's true.
But he’s won the BTT twice?
You've got to hang something in the rafters or at some points fans are going to get tired of 2nd place. In fact even more so, because we can see the prize and can't reach it.
2021 — hung something in the rafters
2022 — hung something in the rafters
2024 — hung something in the rafters
 
#1,237      
I was curious, given Underwood has won the most conference games over the last decade or so, what does the conference title count look like?

Underwood - 1
Izzo - 4
Painter - 4
Gard - 2
May - 1 in 2 seasons

Underwood has the same amount of regular season titles as Juwan Howard. Yep, it's true. You've got to hang something in the rafters or at some points fans are going to get tired of 2nd place. In fact even more so, because we can see the prize and can't reach it.
10 years? Underwood hasn't even been here that long, and again, NOBODY expected the team to be good right away so including those first two seasons is only ever done in bad faith by the fire Brad crew to skew results.

Since Covid, it looks like this:

Painter - 2
Underwood* - 1
May -1
Izzo - 1
Gard - 1
Howard* - 1

BTT:

Underwood - 2
Painter - 1
May - 1
McCaffrey -1

Total:
Underwood* - 3
Painter - 3
May - 2
Izzo - 1
McCaffrey - 1
Gard - 1
Howard - 1

* we won more games than UM in 2020-2021 and this board pretty unanimously though we should get a share of the title, which would have put Underwood at 2 regular season titles, and 4 total titles, tops in the conference
 
#1,238      
But he’s won the BTT twice?

2021 — hung something in the rafters
2022 — hung something in the rafters
2024 — hung something in the rafters
Additionally there are programs that have loads of passionate fans that have far less success. Tired of this entitled attitude where fans think they shouldn’t give a !!!! about a sport or team unless they are at the pinnacle.
 
#1,239      
Had we made another few free throws, say Jake made his late and it allowed us to win in regulation I would indeed be less upset with the coaching. However it's not because of the win or loss from that but because it would mean that those 5 minutes of overtime didn't exist which featured some extraordinarily questionable coaching decisions.

My absolute biggest problem was Brad going with Tomi in OT. Absolutely nothing in the game suggested that Tomi would be able to hold his own defensively and he was a minus player all game. Z however was a plus player defensively all game. And despite missing those wide open threes (Tomi missed most of his too), Z also had the higher offensive efficiency. He outrebounded Tomi 7-2 in less minutes. He effected and blocked more shots. He had less turnovers. And Wisconsin was nowhere near as effective when Z was in the paint. So why was that decision made? I said it in the game thread that that coaching decision would likely lose us the game. I stand by it.

Now to save you the trouble, the rral question you should ask me is if Tomi went bonkers on both sides of the ball in OT, would I be happier. And the answer to that is Yes. I'd have tipped my hat to Brad and said I would not have made that decision but that's why he's the coach. He clearly had a feeling and was right and I was not. But instead what happened was exactly what happened in the 40min of regulation where Tomi was in defensively.

But yes, Brad's rotations, substitutions, and use of timeouts have been subpar in my opinion. And his late game strategies over several seasons have been consistently questionable. 1st commercial break, doesn't matter if a player is feeling it, consistently makes the sub. Z comes in and gives the team a giant spark of energy and great defense? Doesn't matter, next commercial break he's back to the bench. In past seasons benching your best defensive players late in games like say Ty or Morez or this year, Z when you have the lead and just need to defend and rebound and you win, it's silly.

There's a reason we can't hold leads late- it's because we can't get stops because our best defenders are out of the game and so we give up easy buckets. And despite having better free throw shooters out there, we settle for tougher quality shots and can't get foul calls. It's a strategy that Brad consistently employs and it hasn't really worked. So that's why I'm upset. Because games like this have been a broken record the past several seasons.
I have zero inside knowledge, but I would guess that there might be some differences of opinion among the staff on who starts and who plays what minutes. And it seems the offensive side of the coaching staff (Tyler etc) has been winning those discussions to date. Jake over Andrej, and Tomi over Z, are decisions made based on offense and spacing. Andrej and Z are clearly the more athletic and better defenders. Not an easy call but if iit was me i would start Andrej.
 
#1,241      
Additionally there are programs that have loads of passionate fans that have far less success. Tired of this entitled attitude where fans think they shouldn’t give a !!!! about a sport or team unless they are at the pinnacle.
It's the exact opposite of that for a most passionate fans. Who doesn't give a !!!! about this team that are posting on this board? I haven't seen them at all.
 
#1,242      
I find myself looking at our bench and wishing Ty was able to play. Yes I know all about his shooting issues, but the man knows how to grab a rebound and hold on to it. It’s like we are playing volleyball of late. Batting the ball with one hand, or a step slow with long rebounds. C’mon Illini!! Let’s GO! 🧡🏀💙
My sentiment exactly.
 
#1,244      
It's the exact opposite of that for a most passionate fans. Who doesn't give a !!!! about this team that are posting on this board? I haven't seen them at all.
Again you are missing the point entirely. You assume if someone isn’t outraged at not winning it all or going E8s and beyond regularly or even the tournament regularly they aren’t passionate fans. Early it was even implied they won’t be fans at all. My point is there are lots of passionate fans of programs that don’t have Illinois success and never will. But they still love their teams and enjoy being fans.
 
#1,245      
Not guaranteed, but Miznoz would prob take Underwood as long as he left Brad Jr behind.
 
#1,246      
Ill take my shot.

I'm sure you're really good at your job, but the competition for finding a top flight college basketball coach who has you in the running for a national title year in and year out is a far more difficult find than a sales rep who hits quota.
Which coach are you talking about???

Brad Underwhelming hasn't had Illinois "in the running for a national title" since he has been here. THAT is the problem.
 
#1,247      
Again you are missing the point entirely. You assume if someone isn’t outraged at not winning it all or going E8s and beyond regularly or even the tournament regularly they aren’t passionate fans. Early it was even implied they won’t be fans at all. My point is there are lots of passionate fans of programs that don’t have Illinois success and never will. But they still love their teams and enjoy being fans.
Oh, I'm missing the point entirely. Got it.
 
#1,248      
Everyone keeps talking about big ten wins and titles but didn't Brad say himself ge doesn't care about conference titles he cares about analytics and March?

Sooooo....
 
#1,249      
Plain and simple, a sizable portion of this fanbase is content with being just good enough.

That is what is often missed or ignored about the success or lack-thereof by any sports organization from high school up to the pros...

The success (or failure) rate of that organization correlates almost exactly to what the overall fan base expectations are.

Try losing at Duke roundball. Or Ohio State or Alabama football. If you have ONE bad year (didn’t win a Title?!) you are going to see and hear holy hell.

Conversely, there are the perpetual middling programs or bottom feeders that seem to end up there year after year – sometimes many decades. And their fans are used to that. Their expectations for something better have been sacrificed on the altar of just too many disappointments to care.

The Illini program has been stuck in the Middling-to-Just-Below-Elite level purgatory for a very long time. In the distant past that wasn't so. And some of this must attributed to the expectations (or lack thereof) of the majority of the Illini fan base.

Some programs get sickening with their oversized expectations thinking that Championships are owed them and some kind of divine right for them. That kind of thinking is wrong as well.

But there is nothing at all wrong or outlandish about a great legacy roundball place like Illini grabbing the Big Trophy at least every ten years or so (on the modest side). Anything less than this should just not be acceptable ‘round these here parts.
 
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