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Old Dec 20, 2016, 12:01 PM   #51
JIllini
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Originally Posted by Illini1221 View Post
I think their FSU game was a bit misleading. I think they were getting beat pretty easily and then scored some garbage baskets during garbage time that made it closer than it really was. But i agree that Minnesota does look like a tough team so far this year. They have impressed me and look dangerous.
Nope, Minnesota actually led at halftime and FSU pulled away late.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 12:05 PM   #52
JimmyTheLayup
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Nope, Minnesota actually led at halftime and FSU pulled away late.


Actually, he was correct and so are you. Minny led at half but FSU was up 19 with a few minutes to play.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 12:07 PM   #53
Calvin
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Originally Posted by jrichisamazing View Post
You guys are crazy for looking up RPI and all that stuff. It's going to change so much in the next 4-6 weeks. Plus a good chunk of these teams will play their way off the bubble in that same time period (either solidly in or out of the tournament).
Maybe. There will likely be some teams that will be exposed in conference play that hid behind a soft non-conf. However, in the grand scheme of things, most will not move a lot, and the majority of the at-large group will be in the final bracket. I'd be willing to be that a majority of the at large 30-60 range will still be in that range in the final projection too. So it gives us some useful data.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 01:27 PM   #54
bobbob
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Originally Posted by jrichisamazing View Post
You guys are crazy for looking up RPI and all that stuff. It's going to change so much in the next 4-6 weeks. Plus a good chunk of these teams will play their way off the bubble in that same time period (either solidly in or out of the tournament).
For most of these teams, the worst loss they have now will be the worst loss they have at the end of the season.

Winthrop is maybe a tad worse than PSU. So everyone with a worst lose at our level is set there.

Not that losing to PSU will help anyone.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 01:56 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by bobbob View Post
For most of these teams, the worst loss they have now will be the worst loss they have at the end of the season.

Winthrop is maybe a tad worse than PSU. So everyone with a worst lose at our level is set there.

Not that losing to PSU will help anyone.
Unless it's Oregon State. Yikes are they awful.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 02:15 PM   #56
Whitman2020
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I would really like to see us take 4 of the first 8 B1G games. Anything more is not very realistic expectations.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 02:37 PM   #57
ChiefIllini
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I would really like to see us take 4 of the first 8 B1G games. Anything more is not very realistic expectations.
I'd agree, though I'd point out the first five will be even more crucial. Playing Maryland twice, OSU and Michigan at home without Krush, and what is most likely gonna be a blowout at Indiana. Winning the majority of those games will be absolutely huge. Winning just two is what I expect, given the circumstances, and winning one or zero probably means missing the tourney. Factor in Groces propensity to going on loss streaks in January means this could signal a change in the program. Obviously Theres a lot of games left after these five to make up any ground lost but coming out of winter break with a winning BT record--watch out for the Illini.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 02:50 PM   #58
UofIChE06
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I'd agree, though I'd point out the first five will be even more crucial. Playing Maryland twice, OSU and Michigan at home without Krush, and what is most likely gonna be a blowout at Indiana. Winning the majority of those games will be absolutely huge. Winning just two is what I expect, given the circumstances, and winning one or zero probably means missing the tourney. Factor in Groces propensity to going on loss streaks in January means this could signal a change in the program. Obviously Theres a lot of games left after these five to make up any ground lost but coming out of winter break with a winning BT record--watch out for the Illini.
I don't think 1-4 is the end of the world or damning. Like I have said before I think the team could win all 8 final games. With that they only need 2-3 of the first 10. That leaves a lot of room to pick up "bonus" wins in the first half that would offset any "letdowns" in the back half. 10-8 is at the least in the discussion. You would think that would give them a fairly favorable first BTT game and potentially a decent second round game to boost the overall resume.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 03:07 PM   #59
Calvin
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Originally Posted by frozenrope9190 View Post
Unless it's Oregon State. Yikes are they awful.
Fun fact, worst P6 teams by conference (KenPom):

80 B12 - Texas
117 BIG - Rutgers
167 SEC - Missouri
186 Big East - Depaul
211 ACC - Boston College
218 PAC-12 - Oregon St (Washington St is 199)
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 03:26 PM   #60
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Fun fact, worst P6 teams by conference (KenPom):

80 B12 - Texas
117 BIG - Rutgers
167 SEC - Missouri
186 Big East - Depaul
211 ACC - Boston College
218 PAC-12 - Oregon St (Washington St is 199)
Boston College will hold a dear place in my heart for their win over Bruce Pearl and Auburn this year.

Washington St and Oregon St should be a real barn-burner.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 03:35 PM   #61
zpfled
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Originally Posted by Calvin View Post
Fun fact, worst P6 teams by conference (KenPom):

80 B12 - Texas
117 BIG - Rutgers
167 SEC - Missouri
186 Big East - Depaul
211 ACC - Boston College
218 PAC-12 - Oregon St (Washington St is 199)
Man, what is wrong in Texas? Huge budget and hot coach (although not so much any more!)...yet dismal results at this point.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 03:42 PM   #62
JimmyTheLayup
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Man, what is wrong in Texas? Huge budget and hot coach (although not so much any more!)...yet dismal results at this point.


Stop me if you've heard this one before but very poor PG play.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 03:49 PM   #63
IlliniInTexas
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Man, what is wrong in Texas? Huge budget and hot coach (although not so much any more!)...yet dismal results at this point.
Yeah, they're going through some growing pains there. Barnes didn't really set up this team that well at the end of his tenure there, so all of Shaka's best players are really young (Fr, So). He's got 6 RSCI 100 players in 2015/2016, with another 3 in 2017, so you can expect they'll be better in the next couple years. If #80 is the worst team in the Big 12, you can expect that league'll be pretty tough. Maybe it won't be a cakewalk for Kansas to repeat (again)
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 04:01 PM   #64
WizardBill
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tOSU. I watched them. Not impressed. I think we can roll them easily.

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Old Dec 20, 2016, 04:50 PM   #65
bredhartmann
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tOSU. I watched them. Not impressed. I think we can roll them easily.
Somewhere, on some tOSU hoops board, I bet there is a post saying the exact same thing about us.

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Old Dec 20, 2016, 05:08 PM   #66
blmillini
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Yeah, they're going through some growing pains there. Barnes didn't really set up this team that well at the end of his tenure there, so all of Shaka's best players are really young (Fr, So). He's got 6 RSCI 100 players in 2015/2016, with another 3 in 2017, so you can expect they'll be better in the next couple years. If #80 is the worst team in the Big 12, you can expect that league'll be pretty tough. Maybe it won't be a cakewalk for Kansas to repeat (again)
Per 247, Barnes last 4 classes... not exactly left in shambles!

2015 - 4 star - 3
2014 - 5 star - 1, 4 star - 1
2013 - 4 star - 1, 3 star - 3
2012 - 5 star - 1, 4 star - 2, 3 star - 3
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 05:42 PM   #67
FeelYourPaign
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I don't have any idea, because I don't pay any attention to Texas.
but is it possible that the Barnes players are not well suited to play the havoc style?
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 07:13 PM   #68
icengineer
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I don't have any idea, because I don't pay any attention to Texas.
but is it possible that the Barnes players are not well suited to play the havoc style?
Is Shaka even trying to implement that style of play at UT? I'm sure he wants to have packages that play that style, at times. But it seems that coaches who do the 'gimmicky' styles of play do less of it as they climb the coaching ladder.
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Old Dec 20, 2016, 08:00 PM   #69
IlliniInTexas
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Per 247, Barnes last 4 classes... not exactly left in shambles!

2015 - 4 star - 3
2014 - 5 star - 1, 4 star - 1
2013 - 4 star - 1, 3 star - 3
2012 - 5 star - 1, 4 star - 2, 3 star - 3
I probably incorrect assign credit to Shaka for the 2015 class, though I meant that Shaka's situation was similar to Groce's first year, with a senior laden team and a 6 seed, without a lot behind it. The 2013 class wasn't very good (highest recruit was 100+, even if a 4 star) and the 2014 class was gone by the time he started (Turner declared and the other guy transferred). 15 and 16 classes are ones he can build on. I think he ultimately does well there.
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Old Dec 21, 2016, 04:13 PM   #70
Calvin
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Originally Posted by IlliniInTexas View Post
Yeah, they're going through some growing pains there. Barnes didn't really set up this team that well at the end of his tenure there, so all of Shaka's best players are really young (Fr, So). He's got 6 RSCI 100 players in 2015/2016, with another 3 in 2017, so you can expect they'll be better in the next couple years. If #80 is the worst team in the Big 12, you can expect that league'll be pretty tough. Maybe it won't be a cakewalk for Kansas to repeat (again)
Not really familiar with this situation, but one thing I've noticed as a fan over the years is that "hot" coaches who make the jump to a bigger paycheck, often have a rough adjustment. It should be easier with all the resources big schools have, but fit is a really big part of coaching success. Coaches who get away from from what got them to that point, even if it means getting more recruiting stars through pipelines and program connections, do so at their peril.
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Old Dec 21, 2016, 08:25 PM   #71
Ransom Stoddard
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Is it February already?

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Old Dec 21, 2016, 08:27 PM   #72
WesterveltVictoryCigar
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RPI is now 38.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 07:16 AM   #73
illiniguy24
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Teamrankings.com (not that familiar with it) has our team strength of schedule RPI at 25, and has not updated from last nights victory


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Old Dec 22, 2016, 09:06 AM   #74
Calvin
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Teamrankings.com (not that familiar with it) has our team strength of schedule RPI at 25, and has not updated from last nights victory
They use a predictive rating, and give us a 22.4% chance of an at-large bid. Seems in line with other data we've seen. FWLIW, I don't see how our SOS could be that high.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 09:17 AM   #75
ski300
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Originally Posted by Calvin View Post
They use a predictive rating, and give us a 22.4% chance of an at-large bid. Seems in line with other data we've seen. FWLIW, I don't see how our SOS could be that high.
Don't put too much stock in RPI numbers until at least mid-January. The RPI numbers change considerably once team start conference play. It we still have a good non-con strength of schedule at the end of January that would be a positive.
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