Agreed. We'd likely play Michigan or the kitties on Friday and then get crushed by PU on Saturday. I'm not sure one BTT win gets us in after two byes.
Bracketology
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Agreed. We'd likely play Michigan or the kitties on Friday and then get crushed by PU on Saturday. I'm not sure one BTT win gets us in after two byes.
Quite a bit of discussion on this on page 4 of the NW game.
http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showthread.php?t=23707&page=4
Short answer is that they count, but late games, especially on Sunday, are hard to consider as they are too close to final brackets being announced.
Dan
Admin
Thanks!
FWLIW, my sometimes faulty memory saw an interview with a committee member that said if it would change a team's selection (even at-large), they will make alternate brackets for both outcomes. They won't make those for seeding, instead going on what they know as of the early afternoon.
Here's a simulator for BTT seeding.
Crazy to see how much a single game or two can swing a team by 3 or 4 rankings. Also, theres still a possibility UI could be the 4th seed. Just saying
Don't know if this is the only way but here's a path to the 6 seed.
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IllinoisFan733
- Chicago
Between the Top 3, I would rather avoid Purdue the most. They are definitely the team that scares me the most. Wisconsin is beatable, and so is Maryland.
Personally, I hope we get matched up again Wisconsin, as I think a win there would do the most for our tourney chances. With the rotation that JG is running out there now they are definitely beatable if the Illini play like they did against NW and Iowa.
Personally, I hope we get matched up again Wisconsin, as I think a win there would do the most for our tourney chances. With the rotation that JG is running out there now they are definitely beatable if the Illini play like they did against NW and Iowa.
Excellent. So Good.
Wow. I just said in another thread that we were still a distance from first four out land. The bubble must be incredibly weak this year.
The bubble is weak every year. Mediocre teams make it every year.
It is. Apologies if I've already posted this here, but one factor is many of the mid major leagues that would sometimes send 2 or 3 teams are going to send just 1 or 2 (barring upsets in the conf tournies). The conference consolidation has moved programs like Creighton from the Missouri Valley to the Big East. The A10 lost Xavier & Butler. The Mountain West just isn't that good. The Valley is a shadow of what it used to be.
So now the bubble is dominated by the Power 5 + Big East and a bunch of them already have double digit losses, so it's not attractive to look at.
This current run is fitting with this team's identity --> #FakeRally. What they are doing now on a full season level is what they have done in several games this year. They play poorly to a point where it looks like all is lost and you don't even have to watch anymore. Then they start playing well, make a run, and things get interesting. It even looks like there is a small chance they could pull it out. Then, they don't.
Given this team identity, it is clear to me how the rest of the season will unfold. In order for the fake rally to really be in effect, Nebraska will have to be defeated. I really think Michigan St. will also have to be defeated for many to truly start to think, "Hey, there is a small chance we might get in the dance." Which brings us to the final regular season game. A game against the worst team in the league. A game this team would seem destined to lose to after getting everyone's hopes up, only to once more see them swallowed in the vast darkness of yet another #FakeRally.
I'll accept wagers via PM
Given this team identity, it is clear to me how the rest of the season will unfold. In order for the fake rally to really be in effect, Nebraska will have to be defeated. I really think Michigan St. will also have to be defeated for many to truly start to think, "Hey, there is a small chance we might get in the dance." Which brings us to the final regular season game. A game against the worst team in the league. A game this team would seem destined to lose to after getting everyone's hopes up, only to once more see them swallowed in the vast darkness of yet another #FakeRally.
I'll accept wagers via PM
This current run is fitting with this team's identity --> #FakeRally. What they are doing now on a full season level is what they have done in several games this year. They play poorly to a point where it looks like all is lost and you don't even have to watch anymore. Then they start playing well, make a run, and things get interesting. It even looks like there is a small chance they could pull it out. Then, they don't.
Given this team identity, it is clear to me how the rest of the season will unfold. In order for the fake rally to really be in effect, Nebraska will have to be defeated. I really think Michigan St. will also have to be defeated for many to truly start to think, "Hey, there is a small chance we might get in the dance." Which brings us to the final regular season game. A game against the worst team in the league. A game this team would seem destined to lose to after getting everyone's hopes up, only to once more see them swallowed in the vast darkness of yet another #FakeRally.
I'll accept wagers via PM
This wouldn't surprise me...but I still see us putting on an underwhelming performance against the Huskers and this shimmer of hope being put to rest
If Rutgers defeats Michigan would we get the 5 seed?
You can change the result of any remaining game(s) you want and that website will give you the resultant tournament seeding and brackets. You can get an Illini fourth seed if you choose your upsets judiciously. They key is to make sure no one other than the top three get ten or more wins. Playing with the bracket can get addictive.
If the only change you make to FiveStar's graphic above is to have Rutgers beat visiting Michigan tonight (tomorrow night?), then we'd tie for 5-8 and get the five seed on the tie break. Taking it still further, we'd play the winner of the PSU-OSU game on Thursday, and if we won, we'd play Minnesota on Friday. Another win would likely lead to Purdue in the next game.
If we beat Purdue on Saturday, the moon would fall from the sky and both the remainder of the Big Ten tourney and the entire NCAA tourney would be canceled. Groce, of course, would then be fired for failing to make the tournament after causing the cancellation with that impossible string of wins. Would Illinois then face sanctions for causing March Madness to be canceled? It is too soon to say.
Leave all of yours the same but make these changes and we're the 4 seed!
Feb 25-26 - Minny loss
Feb 28-Mar2 - Minny loss, Wisky loss
Mar 4-5 - Ohio St., Maryland and Nebraska
I made a pretty similar analysis over in the coaches thread, unless we fall to 12/13 seed or climb to a 4/5 in a mega-tie breaker situation we look like a pretty sure bet to get one of Purdue/Wisconsin/Maryland on Friday. I almost think the best situation is the 8/9 seed, have to beat Wisconsin or PU Friday, get an easier game Saturday (likely NW, MSU,or MN whoever comes out of 4/5 game), then hope for an upset on the bottom half of the bracket so we only have to go through 1 of Wis/PU/MD...and yeah that all adds up to bad odds, the only positive is WI/PU/MD are less scary as top teams than the typical year in the B1G and after that nobody is significantly better or worse than us, so seems more likely than most years for a lower seed to win.
With our current resume? I like to see it but I don;t understand it at all.
I don't see it either, but we don't have a bad loss and have a very difficult schedule. VCU is currently a premium Neutral floor win
????? Still hard to see it
I didn't realize Winthrop slithered into the top 100. Wow.
Slot number four of the last four in...
Isn't this what Second and Chalmers has told us all along? We make the play-in game and lose - - and that means we come as close as possible to making the dance without getting into the actual tournament!
haasi
- New York
Winthrop has been there a while I think.
TeamRankings.com now gives us a 7.5% chance of making the tourney.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/illinois-fighting-illini/bracketology
Thinks that @Nebraska is our hardest remaining regular season game, gives us about 40% of winning, and has us favored against MSU and @ Rutgers.
TeamRankings.com now gives us a 7.5% chance of making the tourney.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/illinois-fighting-illini/bracketology
Thinks that @Nebraska is our hardest remaining regular season game, gives us about 40% of winning, and has us favored against MSU and @ Rutgers.
Indiana may be slithering out soon.
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