I'm surprised with this modest assessment with your excitement of BUs offense. Not saying you are wrong....I took a more optimistic viewpoint, just surprised
Early Projection for Next Season
I'm surprised with this modest assessment with your excitement of BUs offense. Not saying you are wrong....I took a more optimistic viewpoint, just surprised
Proabably more of an under reaction to balance my overreaction from last year. I also think the conference as a whole will be competitive at a higher level this year.
I originally typed 7/8 and 5/6. Figured I should contain my hype and bump down a bit.
Seems silly to do before recruiting is done, staffs are assembled and NBA departures occur. Etc. Purdue I think is too high. Iowa too high. Indiana and Illinois too low. The majority of their problems were not talent they were coaching issues sure Miller and Underwood will need a few years to truly hit their stride but I expect to see both in the tourney.
Lol. He got 3 of 14 right.
What we need to be better next year:
TJL - Must get stronger. Needs improved handles. Needs a consistent perimeter shot. Continued defensive improvement.
JCL - Needs much handling/passing improvement. Needs to round out his offensive game. Continued defensive improvement.
Leron - Needs to get stronger. Develop some low post offense. Defend without fouling. Needs drastic improvement handling/passing, especially passing.
Finke - Needs to get stronger. Develop some low post offense. Needs much defensive improvement, especially in paint. Continued rebounding improvement.
Kipper - Needs improved handling/passing. Needs a consistent perimeter shot. Continued defensive improvement, could be a real asset on D.
AJ - Must assert himself. Needs much handling/passing improvement. Needs some offense to hang his hat on. Needs defensive improvement. Not sure here.
DJW - Needs a motor. Improved handling/passing. Like AJ needs an offensive identity. Potential defensive havoc creator. Could be great in Underwood's system if he stays and turns it on. Not sure here.
Trent - Needs to hit the ground running as a legit contributor at PG.
DMW/Pickett/?Mark Smith - will need at least one of these to be an impact freshman wing player.
Tilmon - Will need to also be an impact player almost immediately as a defender/rebounder. Offense may come more slowly but it will need to come by back half of B1G.
TJL - Must get stronger. Needs improved handles. Needs a consistent perimeter shot. Continued defensive improvement.
JCL - Needs much handling/passing improvement. Needs to round out his offensive game. Continued defensive improvement.
Leron - Needs to get stronger. Develop some low post offense. Defend without fouling. Needs drastic improvement handling/passing, especially passing.
Finke - Needs to get stronger. Develop some low post offense. Needs much defensive improvement, especially in paint. Continued rebounding improvement.
Kipper - Needs improved handling/passing. Needs a consistent perimeter shot. Continued defensive improvement, could be a real asset on D.
AJ - Must assert himself. Needs much handling/passing improvement. Needs some offense to hang his hat on. Needs defensive improvement. Not sure here.
DJW - Needs a motor. Improved handling/passing. Like AJ needs an offensive identity. Potential defensive havoc creator. Could be great in Underwood's system if he stays and turns it on. Not sure here.
Trent - Needs to hit the ground running as a legit contributor at PG.
DMW/Pickett/?Mark Smith - will need at least one of these to be an impact freshman wing player.
Tilmon - Will need to also be an impact player almost immediately as a defender/rebounder. Offense may come more slowly but it will need to come by back half of B1G.
Deleted member 29907
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Agree - he was really good swinging around the baseline to turn and shoot and I think any offense that spreads the d out will help him. He often got in trouble trying to dribble through a crowd. A crowd created by our 'stand and watch' offense. He has a high BB IQ and so any system that is geared towards an actual plan should help him.
GortTheRobot
- North Bethesda, Maryland
I'm in for the optimistic take on next year. This seems different than all the other times I was optimistic, but didn't have a great deal of faith in it.I see us in the top half, no lower than #7, and in the tourney.
I'm personally not expecting much from Tilmon. Love his upside but I think the BIG is rough on freshman interior players until they have strength/skill to post up. There's a lot to learn physically and mentally for guys who have often relied on their physical advantages in hs. Maybe he's more skilled than I realize, but if he gives us a post threat, can score in transition, learn a little rebounding from Black, and figure out footwork and how not to foul so he can stay in the game longer than 15 minutes, that's enough for me.
One thing I do expect is a major culture shift and much smarter bball. Some things I think Underwood will do that Groce failed utterly at:
* Pick up the tempo instead of walking the ball down the court when it's late in the game or half and we're down. So stupid and happened all too frequently.
* Showing up when the game starts.
* Avoiding long stretches where we look lost.
* Avoiding bad disruptions (bad substitutions, play calls, time-outs) to tempo when we have some flow
* Playing defense for an entire game
* Understanding how defense leads to offense
* Guys moving and creating instead of waiting
* Creating an identity where guys know their groove, and strive to get back to what they do best when the other team tries to disrupt them
We've become so numb to bad coaching, that we bought into the idea that the players are the main problem. I'm not saying we have the best talent in the league today, but this is arguably the best freshman class in the league (assuming we keep everyone, which is looking like a fair bet), and guys like Kipper and Black will do well. I'm not expecting us to go from 9th to 1st, but I do think we'll move up and start to be dangerous.
I expect a fair amount from Tilmon for one reason - he's going to play alot of minutes. With 80 minutes for three players at PF/C (Tilmon, Black, Finke), he's going to need to stay on the court at least 20 min/game.
Yes I know guys like Kipper of DJ Williams could play a few minutes at the 4.
Fouls will likely keep him from playing much more than 20 min/game.
RedRocksIllini
- Morrison, CO
I'll be happy if there are a lot fewer games where the team looks like they'd rather be doing anything except playing a basketball game. I think that's called lowered expectations.
Agree with everything you said, and want to make a few offense specific, general additions.
1) ALL players, including the bigs you mentioned, will need to develop their low post game more. Cutter 2 of this offense cuts directly into a post up. Guards will probably need one "go-to" they're comfortable with and one counter for that. They'll also have to learn to read when to pin their defender for the lob over the top, and learn to finish that way.
2) As everybody knows we did a lot of standing around the last 5 years. All players are going to have to learn to score off cuts. It sounds easy, but when you're sprinting a cut when you're not used to cutting at all, there's a lot of coordination required to read the defense, cut at the right angle, find the ball, catch the ball, find the rim, and finish over your defender.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
We'll have hiccups, and losing Malcom and Morgan and Tracy (but especially the former two) really hurts ... to think otherwise is, IMO, unfair to the new staff and the freshmen. We'll need time to find our groove.
However, I'll bet that if everyone stays committed like it looks like and we can add Smith that no one in is going to want to face the February Illini who are playing for a Tournament berth, and I'll also bet that the 2019 Fighting Illini are going to be damn good.
However, I'll bet that if everyone stays committed like it looks like and we can add Smith that no one in is going to want to face the February Illini who are playing for a Tournament berth, and I'll also bet that the 2019 Fighting Illini are going to be damn good.
Seems too early to be doing this but I'll give it a stab. My concern is that with an improved league and the first time that the quality of coaching across the board is at such a high level, that wins are going to be hard to come by. We will have to own our home court to have a chance. If we do that, I think we will finish in the top half of the B1G and easily make the tournament. I don't see us competing for the top four spots, so 5-7 would make me feel like the season was a resounding success. If just slightly below that and on the bubble, I will have no gripes. I really just want to see the guys buy in, compete every day, and win more than lose. There will be some setbacks but, I hope that by the end of the season, the team is competitive with anyone and set up for a monster year the following season.
Picking the finish order is always tough because the middle is so tightly packed.
If you take this year, and give us a win at Rutgers and a split against PSU we would finished 10-8 and tied for 5th, rather than 9th. Oh, and probably are a 8-9 seed in the tournament with a 50% chance of playing into the second round.
The margin is always so thin. With all the uncertainly heading into next year - new coach, loss of a lot of seniors, and a top incoming class. I think we can all understand why someone would pick us 11th when you look at a league where all the sudden Minn and NW were above .500 and should be better next year. It is always going to be easier to pick other teams to likely finish above us.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would pick us above 6th given all that uncertainly. I expect all the preseason picks to be in the 9th to 11th range just like last year.
I would put my money on 7th or 8th.
If you take this year, and give us a win at Rutgers and a split against PSU we would finished 10-8 and tied for 5th, rather than 9th. Oh, and probably are a 8-9 seed in the tournament with a 50% chance of playing into the second round.
The margin is always so thin. With all the uncertainly heading into next year - new coach, loss of a lot of seniors, and a top incoming class. I think we can all understand why someone would pick us 11th when you look at a league where all the sudden Minn and NW were above .500 and should be better next year. It is always going to be easier to pick other teams to likely finish above us.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would pick us above 6th given all that uncertainly. I expect all the preseason picks to be in the 9th to 11th range just like last year.
I would put my money on 7th or 8th.
Is there any reason to think the BIG will be tougher next year? Swanigan should go pro, so should Bridges. Trimble declared. I think Bryant is expected to go too. It was a very competitive league this year, without an elite squad, and I don't see that changing next year. Possibly the biggest changes are going to be Underwood and Miller.
Some posters have pointed out that we are losing a lot of offense with the departure of Hill, Mav, and Abrams. Which is true and they are right. But first, I don't think we lose all that much from Abrams or Morgan. Good players but I think that even the current and new roster can make up for them easily. The big loss is Hill. But as far as offensive production it is not like next year instead of scoring 80 points we are going to only score 60 because we are missing Hill's 20 points a game (or thereabouts). Someone (or someones) is going to step up and make those points especially under the new offensive schemes of the new coach (presumably). We lose players every year. But then we have new players or ones that didn't play as much but now will and they will add to our offensive punch. I just wouldn't worry too much about having to replace that offensive scoring with the departures of the aforementioned.
Patience grasshopper.
I agree with you. We will average significantly more PPG... but I want to see you eat socks. That is a win-win scenario for me.
I agree completely with your point #1. One of Deron's strong points was his ability to manhandle smaller guards in the post, and I think Damonte and Smith, if we get him, can really utilize that as well. Especially in 3 guard lineups like the '05 bunch, it is common to find those mismatches. Funny that this team has the blueprint of that Illini team with so many guards that identify as PGs. Especially if we land Smith. Not trying to draw comparisons by any means, but similar make up. And yes, our bigs need post work, too. Hoping Finke can thrive as a high post passer/pick & pop man and Leron continues to be a monster on the boards. I'd much rather him fall in love with being down in the paint than fall in love with the jump shot which he seemed to be doing late this season.
While the loss of Mav might not be felt as much in an uptempo system like BU, and his skill set doesn't necessarily fit in the half court, let's please not act like he was a slouch. He's been our best player at times the past 2 seasons. We are bound to feel his loss in some ways.
