Early Projection for Next Season

[Philly Boy]

Matt Dienart has posted projected rankings and rationale for next season.
He has Illini at #11, primarily becuse it's "a transition year."

Dunno if I agree with our low ranking, but I can see where non-Illini fans might place us like this. His reasoning for his choices seem accurate to me.

As we have discussed on this board, one of the reasons for our disappointment was the conference was supposed to be "down" this year -- and that's pretty much the way it played out. Next year looks much rougher. If we get close to .500 in conference I think we should consider it overperforming.

Here is link:

http://btn.com/2017/03/28/dienhart-early-early-look-at-2017-18-big-ten-power-rankings/

 

[Whitman2020]

I don't disagree with him. 10/11 is where I would put us.

 

[illiniguy24]

Matt Dienart has posted projected rankings and rationale for next season.

He has Illini at #11, primarily becuse it's "a transition year."



Dunno if I agree with our low ranking, but I can see where non-Illini fans might place us like this. His reasoning for his choices seem accurate to me.



As we have discussed on this board, one of the reasons for our disappointment was the conference was supposed to be "down" this year -- and that's pretty much the way it played out. Next year looks much rougher. If we get close to .500 in conference I think we should consider it overperforming.



Here is link:



http://btn.com/2017/03/28/dienhart-early-early-look-at-2017-18-big-ten-power-rankings/

The best part is that Ohio State is projected 12th


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[foby]

On paper that sounds right. However, the game is not played on paper so I expect around 7th or 8th and fighting to get in the NCAA tourney.

 

[IlliniTargetAcquired]

On paper that sounds right. However, the game is not played on paper so I expect around 7th or 8th and fighting to get in the NCAA tourney.

It will depend heavily on who we add to fill out the roster via 5th years, Mark Smith, etc

 

[champaignchris]

Illinois was 9th this year and loses its best all around player, only back-to-the-basket offensive presence, and best 3 point shooter. Malcolm, Mav and Tracy were the top three scorers and arguably the best three players on the team.

Even with this nice recruiting class coming in and some expected incremental improvements from the sophomores and juniors, I don't possibly see how this team can be a whole bunch better without some out of nowhere type of jumps in performance.

Illinois is going to really struggle to put the ball in the basket. In particular, it looks to have few or no options on the low post in a half court set. To score, Illinois is going to have to get out and run. Which makes it so good that they got the coach they got. When teams are able to keep Illinois in a half court offense, it will get ugly.

When JCL, Finke and Black are seniors and Kipper and TJL are juniors, with the new class and a couple other pick ups... 2018-19. That's when I see things getting exciting again. As for next year, coming out every game looking like they're ready to play would be a good step in the right direction.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I can't imagine going forward without some significant roster changes. Whitman didn't spend $3 million for an 11th place finish.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Illinois was 9th this year and loses its best all around player, only back-to-the-basket offensive presence, and best 3 point shooter. Malcolm, Mav and Tracy were the top three scorers and arguably the best three players on the team.

Even with this nice recruiting class coming in and some expected incremental improvements from the sophomores and juniors, I don't possibly see how this team can be a whole bunch better without some out of nowhere type of jumps in performance.

Illinois is going to really struggle to put the ball in the basket. In particular, it looks to have few or no options on the low post in a half court set. To score, Illinois is going to have to get out and run. Which makes it so good that they got the coach they got. When teams are able to keep Illinois in a half court offense, it will get ugly.

When JCL, Finke and Black are seniors and Kipper and TJL are juniors, with the new class and a couple other pick ups... 2018-19. That's when I see things getting exciting again. As for next year, coming out every game looking like they're ready to play would be a good step in the right direction.

We're going to be playing a very different system, the lack of a low post option isn't necessarily all that important. Who was Michigan's low post option? Or Oregon?

I'm not saying we're going to be as good as those 2 teams are this year, but there are other ways to get shots at the rim, even in a half court game.

 

[Obelix]

It actually refutes the point that people had made that this is is a very talented team. Even with the coaching change, analysts do not view our current level of talent as where it should be to compete for upper echelon in the B1G. Independent of rankings, the incoming class would need to prove as a major talent upgrade on the floor. But analysts do not view our existing talent (i.e., existing players) adequate to compete for a higher level finish, even with Underwood's coaching.

 

[Trakis]

I honestly have NO idea where we'll end up. I would not be putting money on our standing in the conference next season. It all depends on the freshmen. How much PT they get, how well they do, and how they gel with Underwood's style. LOTS of questions.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

Not even worth doing this type of exercise yet given that nobody is totally sure what our roster (or several others) will actually look like next season.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

I can't imagine going forward without some significant roster changes. Whitman didn't spend $3 million for an 11th place finish.

Whitman spent $3 million to rebuild the program. I have no illusions about the rebuild starting anywhere above 11th or 12th for 2017-2018. The 2018-2019 record is where I'll start to question what's happening.

 

[Calvin]

I'll go out on a limb here and say we easily make the tournament. I'll put us in the 4/5 spot. And yes, this is coming from someone who had been pretty pessimistic about us for a couple seasons, not some kool-aid drinker.

I think we have more talent than people think, and we're going to see how poorly coached we were. Going from a bottom of the barrel game coach to a guy who's top-notch, is going to make a big difference. Guys being utilized in ways that play to their strength will change things. Showing up will make a differnce. We will have growing pains, but we will have much improved guard play, and we will be able to compete. We're not so bereft of talent that we can't improve even losing some decent seniors. #wewillwin #Iwillwatch

 

[Adnarel]

I'm surprised it took this long for this thread to appear.

I'll offer my worthless 2¢ once we actually have a roster. But I will say that 11th is too weak. We can (and will) do better than that.

 

[RickBB]

I think people put way too much stock in experience. Talented Freshman play all over the country...and love TA and MH, but defaulting to either of them for end of clock situations rarely worked. We will have a major upgrade in talent next year, a major upgrade in system, and an excitement around the program which is palpable, whether or not Smith signs on. I believe momentum is a very real thing not only in games but in seasons....and from the Winthrop game on, the 16-17 Illini never recovered.

Next year will be the first time players really play players...there is no upperclass loyalty. I don't think its too outrageous to see DJW stay and play due to his skill set, Black still plays but probably just be a disrupter and don't worry about fouling out, we aren't expecting you to play 25 minutes a game anyway. Play 12-15, have 5 rebounds, 6 points, frustrate the opposition, and collect 3 to 5 fouls in that time. He may or may not like that role.

JCL may also be one regular who sees minutes reduced because of his lack of dribbling ability. Now, he may come in and score 12 points in about 8 minutes of critical play, but he's like those 4th outfielders the Cubs used to have that everyone loved (Reid Johnson, Sam Fuld, Tony Campenella)..great in a limited role, but extended time gets exposed. he'll have a critical role, but is he willing to stick around and average 8 points in 15 minutes as a junior and senior? He seems like a well adjusted young man, so maybe he is.

I'll be disappointed in anything lower than a 5-8th place and squarely in the tourney.

 

[BWBW]

I'll go out on a limb here and say we easily make the tournament. I'll put us in the 4/5 spot. And yes, this is coming from someone who had been pretty pessimistic about us for a couple seasons, not some kool-aid drinker.

I think we have more talent than people think, and we're going to see how poorly coached we were. Going from a bottom of the barrel game coach to a guy who's top-notch, is going to make a big difference. Guys being utilized in ways that play to their strength will change things. Showing up will make a differnce. We will have growing pains, but we will have much improved guard play, and we will be able to compete. We're not so bereft of talent that we can't improve even losing some decent seniors. #wewillwin #Iwillwatch

:thumb:

Making the tournament this coming year should be possible.

 

[dgcrow]

How the Illini fare next season, of course, depends to a degree on the strength of the non-conference opponents and the vagaries of the Big 10 schedule. Looking forward to seeing those.

 

[Obelix]

I'll go out on a limb here and say we easily make the tournament. I'll put us in the 4/5 spot. And yes, this is coming from someone who had been pretty pessimistic about us for a couple seasons, not some kool-aid drinker.

I think we have more talent than people think, and we're going to see how poorly coached we were. Going from a bottom of the barrel game coach to a guy who's top-notch, is going to make a big difference. Guys being utilized in ways that play to their strength will change things. Showing up will make a differnce. We will have growing pains, but we will have much improved guard play, and we will be able to compete. We're not so bereft of talent that we can't improve even losing some decent seniors. #wewillwin #Iwillwatch

The addition of freshmen and other players on the roster, and more importantly their talent as proven on the court (independent of rankings) can definitely elevate the team to NCAA and beyond.

But the point of contention was that pre-season rankings by analysts were predominantly influenced by Groce's inabilities and deficiencies, whereas our talent was very good. Even with the coaching change, the pre-season expectations are not very high. That does not mean that the team will not perform, compete, nor does it mean that the players coming in will not be very talented. I also have higher expectations.

 

[TCTORNADO]

A 5th place finish and Underwood is in the running for B1G COY.

 

[Liesse1997]

I do think we have to wait to see how the rest of the roster pans out before we make real predictions, but I will say I think our "returning 5" (TJL, JCL, Kipper, Finke, Black) will be able to improve their scoring averages under Underwood's system quite easily. That comes from having more opportunities with the seniors gone and playing at a much higher tempo. Our overall standing in the B10 can range from real high to real low, but I like to hope we will be in the thick of things come March 2018 playing meaningful games at least. I do not want to be behind Northwestern + Iowa in the standings two years in a row.

 

[FiveStar]

I think if we get Smith, and keep all current recruits and players, we could max out at 8/9. Lots of ifs in that statement. Grab a 6th year big who fits and we maybe move to 7/8.

 

[Peoria Illini]

If we finish 11th in the conference next season and have to play on the first say of the BTT, that will be another depressing year.

I realize we need some time to grow the program back, but if Underwood can take a 3 win team up to 9 wins in arguably the toughest conference in the country this year, he should be able to finish higher in the Big Ten. Granted we are losing more than Okie State lost last year, but our recruiting class should benefit us greatly.

 

[foby]

I'll go out on a limb here and say we easily make the tournament. I'll put us in the 4/5 spot. And yes, this is coming from someone who had been pretty pessimistic about us for a couple seasons, not some kool-aid drinker.

I think we have more talent than people think, and we're going to see how poorly coached we were. Going from a bottom of the barrel game coach to a guy who's top-notch, is going to make a big difference. Guys being utilized in ways that play to their strength will change things. Showing up will make a differnce. We will have growing pains, but we will have much improved guard play, and we will be able to compete. We're not so bereft of talent that we can't improve even losing some decent seniors. #wewillwin #Iwillwatch

:thumb: It's a new day and we have reson to be optimistic. This will not resemble the Illini of the past 10 years.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I do think we have to wait to see how the rest of the roster pans out before we make real predictions, but I will say I think our "returning 5" (TJL, JCL, Kipper, Finke, Black) will be able to improve their scoring averages under Underwood's system quite easily. That comes from having more opportunities with the seniors gone and playing at a much higher tempo. Our overall standing in the B10 can range from real high to real low, but I like to hope we will be in the thick of things come March 2018 playing meaningful games at least. I do not want to be behind Northwestern + Iowa in the standings two years in a row.

We've finished below Iowa 6 years in a row.

 

[helppitch]

Not even worth doing this type of exercise yet given that nobody is totally sure what our roster (or several others) will actually look like next season.

That is for sure. Already Maryland is losing Trimble. I don't see Purdue being close to that good, unless Swanigan returns, if he does they might even be better than predicted.
Wisconsin is pretty much a wild card, who knows? They seem to always be good, but are losing a ton of talent.
Predictions, at this point, don't seem to make much sense, since rosters are not set. Secondly there still could be some coaching changes. Thirdly, it is very difficult to predict the effect of a new coaches, often with different styles.
IMO, I think we will be better than this past year, but that is just an opinion.