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Illini Basketball 2018-2019

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Old May 26, 2018, 09:18 AM   #401
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
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Originally Posted by kuhl84 View Post
UI had 69 blocks
Nice.
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Old May 26, 2018, 01:48 PM   #402
Nathan
In an attempt to prognosticate a little better for next season, I decided to try and project what Trent might be set up to accomplish in 2019. To do this, I looked at players that have made the all big ten freshman team AND the big ten honorable mention list. This seemed to be a decent way to capture freshman that had similarly impactful seasons their freshman years. I looked at the 2011-2017 seasons (because I'm lazy and didn't want to go back further).

This list includes 11 players:
Tony Carr
Ethan Happ
Caleb Swanigan
James Blackmon Jr
Yogi Ferrell
Sam Dekker
Glen Robinson III
Branden Dawson
Tim Hardaway Jr
Melsahn Basabe

Of these 11, 10 stayed healthy (Blackmon didn't) during their sophomore year. At the conclusion of their sophomore year:

Carr, Happ, Swanigan - 1st team all big ten.
Ferrell, Dekker - 2nd team.
Hardaway Jr - 3rd team.
Robinson III, Craft - Honorable Mention.
Dawson, Basabe - No accolades.

5/10 players became 1st or 2nd team material. That's a 50% shot that Trent Frazier becomes a monster next year, disregarding the glaring holes in my analysis.

The other 5 guys didn't have bad seasons either, but if we want to be a middle of the road team with a shot at the tournament, we need a star player. Frazier is our best shot at that, obviously, but looking at this made me more optimistic that he may be able to become an elite player next year.

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Old May 26, 2018, 01:52 PM   #403
Ga65
Believe Kane will change this. Just not sure it will be 2018-19. Indicator of post defense that will get us out of the sucko region.
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Old May 26, 2018, 04:33 PM   #404
bobbob
Pretty sure Underwood's style of defense is never going to lead to a lot of blocks. Similar to the reasons we will likely continue to give up a disproportionate amount of layup/dunk attempts. Even deeper into possessions we don't do a lot of weakside help down low.
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Old May 26, 2018, 06:29 PM   #405
jrichisamazing
Awesome stuff. Trent making a leap to 1st or 2nd team, Tev Jones or Ayo on all frosh squad, and a couple guys stepping up as good role players will give us a great foundation. Then we could say we are only a piece or two away and actually mean it. That's the realistic goal for this season IMO.

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Old May 26, 2018, 06:35 PM   #406
jrichisamazing
I don't think that's true. Leron and Finke were both slow footed and couldn't jump. Thats why there was no help side defense. This style should theoretically lead to more block attempts because the pressure defense allows a lot of shot attempts at the rim. Compared to Groce's defense which tried to force teams to take long jumpers.

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Old May 27, 2018, 07:46 AM   #407
kuhl84
Location: Orlando, FL
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Originally Posted by jrichisamazing View Post
I don't think that's true. Leron and Finke were both slow footed and couldn't jump. Thats why there was no help side defense. This style should theoretically lead to more block attempts because the pressure defense allows a lot of shot attempts at the rim. Compared to Groce's defense which tried to force teams to take long jumpers.

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Agree with your premise.
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Old May 27, 2018, 08:38 AM   #408
bobbob
None of Underwood's previous teams have been high block teams. His Oklahoma State team was 199th in the nation, despite being a fairly high tempo team. The best SFA team was 136th.

Shots at the rim aren't blocked when they are taken one on one. When your forwards are spread out due to the midcourt pressure of your guards, you will give up a fair number of one on one low post attempts. It doesn't matter how slow or fast they are when they are that spread out.

Blocks are not a stat that we should be concerned about, they are relatively meaningless in this defense. Underwood wants to steal the pass, not block the shot.
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Old May 27, 2018, 09:14 AM   #409
illinitiger
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Originally Posted by bobbob View Post
None of Underwood's previous teams have been high block teams. His Oklahoma State team was 199th in the nation, despite being a fairly high tempo team. The best SFA team was 136th.

Shots at the rim aren't blocked when they are taken one on one. When your forwards are spread out due to the midcourt pressure of your guards, you will give up a fair number of one on one low post attempts. It doesn't matter how slow or fast they are when they are that spread out.

Blocks are not a stat that we should be concerned about, they are relatively meaningless in this defense. Underwood wants to steal the pass, not block the shot.
agree blocks are not the issue.

giving up 54% for opponents 2PA is an area that we hopefully agree needs to be fixed ASAP.


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Old May 27, 2018, 10:59 AM   #410
Ga65
Opponents shooting percentage will be very high with no rim protection with this defense. If the defense is effective it should be balanced by turnovers. Unfortunately last year our +48 turnovers were offset by 65 more fouls than our conference opponents. The result was only 3 more fg attempts than opponents and a poor shooting percentage.
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Old May 27, 2018, 03:52 PM   #411
EfremWinters84
Location: S. Carolina
Just took a look at the Way Too Early 2018-19 Big Ten Basketball projections. It's been a very accurate resource the past few seasons....at least when compared to our Illinois Loyalty prognostications (mine included).

We're predicted at #12. At least it's better than our football team, projected at #7 in the West and #14 overall.
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Old May 27, 2018, 04:30 PM   #412
nichi
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Location: Elsewhere, NE IL
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Originally Posted by The Dave View Post
Just catching up on the board. I realize this is pre-Bo, but Bobby Knight was a system recruiter/coach. He had Isiah for a single year and Calbert Chaney was an NBA talent. Not much else that ever made an impact.

Actually, I think that if the NBA really pushes this G-League thing and makes it a great alternative to being a one-and-done that you'll see coaches that can recruit and teach to a system become more the norm.
Not only Bob Knight, but also Gene Keady and his successor Matt Painter. There are a several ways to measure talent. For very recent years, we can look at the rating & ranking of recruits from 247sports. We can also look at the number of McDonald's All Americans beginning in 1977, and the number of NBA players.

Knight coached at IU 29 years, from 1971-72 to 1999-00. He coached 32 NBA players, 16 were first round draft picks. From 1977 to 2000, he signed 20 McDonald's All Americans. That is not quite UK, UNC, or Duke level talent, but compare to Purdue:

Keady was at PU 25 seasons, starting in 1980-81. He coached 14 NBA players, 3 were first round picks. He recruited 4 McDonald's All Americans. Painter has had 1 McD AA and 6 NBA players, including 2 late first round picks, in 13 years.

BTW, Lou Henson was at UI for 21 seasons, from 1975-76 - 1995-96. He coached a total of 12 NBA players; 5 of which were first round picks. He landed 8 McDonald's All Americans, all from 1980 to 1992; 5 from 1982 to 1987.
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Old May 27, 2018, 09:06 PM   #413
Ga65
How does the competition Alan Griffin played vs T Jones's competition? I keep looking at the 9.9 rebounds per game and wonder if we are underestimating his athletic abilities. His stats are impressive and yet most of us do not expect a lot from him. Similar to TF last year. This class will be interesting.
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Old May 28, 2018, 04:44 AM   #414
Illini B-Ball Fan
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Location: Racine WI
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Originally Posted by Ga65 View Post
How does the competition Alan Griffin played vs T Jones's competition? I keep looking at the 9.9 rebounds per game and wonder if we are underestimating his athletic abilities. His stats are impressive and yet most of us do not expect a lot from him. Similar to TF last year. This class will be interesting.
High school stats sound good until players get to college, and then that's where those stats are really challenged and we get to see how good the players really are when at the next level. I hope all our new recruits play as good as the stars they've accumulated, but don't count on it.

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Old May 28, 2018, 04:59 AM   #415
illinitiger
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Originally Posted by Ga65 View Post
How does the competition Alan Griffin played vs T Jones's competition? I keep looking at the 9.9 rebounds per game and wonder if we are underestimating his athletic abilities. His stats are impressive and yet most of us do not expect a lot from him. Similar to TF last year. This class will be interesting.
I think AG played against some very good competition...probably as good or better than others coming in.

I love the fact that we have AG...a coaches kid, rising fairly dramatically senior year in the ratings, long shooter, with great BB IQ...give me that guy every year.

I see AG and TJ complementing each other. A nice 2-3 package.

Last edited by Dan; May 28, 2018 at 06:14 AM.
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Old May 28, 2018, 07:05 AM   #416
Verified Insider
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Originally Posted by EfremWinters84 View Post
Just took a look at the Way Too Early 2018-19 Big Ten Basketball projections. It's been a very accurate resource the past few seasons....at least when compared to our Illinois Loyalty prognostications (mine included).

We're predicted at #12. At least it's better than our football team, projected at #7 in the West and #14 overall.

That sounds about right.

#14 seems a bit too high for the football team though. Even though the B1G only has 14 teams, I think we're no higher than #15.
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Old May 28, 2018, 08:14 AM   #417
BWilson25
Location: The A
We will finish higher than 12th.
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Old May 28, 2018, 08:26 AM   #418
doowink
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Originally Posted by illinitiger View Post
I think AG played against some very good competition...probably as good or better than others coming in.

I love the fact that we have AG...a coaches kid, rising fairly dramatically senior year in the ratings, long shooter, with great BB IQ...give me that guy every year.

I see AG and TJ complementing each other. A nice 2-3 package.
I think Alstork was suppose to be a really good outsider shooter from the reports we were hearing this time last year....well I'm not saying he was bad...but was far from really good in my opinion....until they get here and show they can consistently produce either offensively or defensively I will take a wait and see approach...just really hard to predict how players either from HS, JC, or even another D1 program will produce here in the B10
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Old May 28, 2018, 08:36 AM   #419
illinitiger
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Originally Posted by doowink View Post
I think Alstork was suppose to be a really good outsider shooter from the reports we were hearing this time last year....well I'm not saying he was bad...but was far from really good in my opinion....until they get here and show they can consistently produce either offensively or defensively I will take a wait and see approach...just really hard to predict how players either from HS, JC, or even another D1 program will produce here in the B10
Agree on wait and see approach. Alstork was all around scorer at Wright st. I think if he had some time with system he may have done better.

AG has very good range. Not expecting the 48% 3P to carry over, but if he can shoot close to 40% from 3p...we should be very happy.

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Old May 28, 2018, 09:31 AM   #420
TCTORNADO
Alstork will make a living playing basketball somewhere.
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Old May 28, 2018, 10:34 AM   #421
Tevo
Location: Wilmette, IL
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Originally Posted by doowink View Post
I think Alstork was suppose to be a really good outsider shooter from the reports we were hearing this time last year....well I'm not saying he was bad...but was far from really good in my opinion....until they get here and show they can consistently produce either offensively or defensively I will take a wait and see approach...just really hard to predict how players either from HS, JC, or even another D1 program will produce here in the B10
Who can name a guy who came in with a certain reputation as a shooter and who actually performed as well or better than expectations?
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Old May 28, 2018, 10:49 AM   #422
RIVERCITYCHIEF
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Who can name a guy who came in with a certain reputation as a shooter and who actually performed as well or better than expectations?
Cory bradford
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Old May 28, 2018, 10:50 AM   #423
Joseph Kerr
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Location: Tennessee
Shhoter

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Originally Posted by Tevo View Post
Who can name a guy who came in with a certain reputation as a shooter and who actually performed as well or better than expectations?
Doug Altenberger

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Old May 28, 2018, 11:03 AM   #424
winthiscentury
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Originally Posted by EfremWinters84 View Post
Just took a look at the Way Too Early 2018-19 Big Ten Basketball projections. It's been a very accurate resource the past few seasons....at least when compared to our Illinois Loyalty prognostications (mine included).

We're predicted at #12. At least it's better than our football team, projected at #7 in the West and #14 overall.
Depressing.

I could have done without this post.
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Old May 28, 2018, 11:19 AM   #425
bobbob
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Originally Posted by Tevo View Post
Who can name a guy who came in with a certain reputation as a shooter and who actually performed as well or better than expectations?
JCL
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