Michigan 78, Illinois 68 POSTGAME

[Jreed322]

Let's stop with the Izzo references. They are outright silly. It is not about one game; heck, it is not even about one season. Izzo has two S16, an E8, and a FF in his last 4 years alone. He has done a great job recruiting, by leaps and bounds above UI. He has the program on a strong foundation. He was undefeated, having the No. 1 team in the nation. Lost away to Iowa... wow, BIG DEAL!

We missed the tournament the last 2 years, and still have not recruited a single top-100 HS PG or C the last 4 years. If it was just about this game, or even this season with injuries, but everything else was on a strong foundation (recruiting, prior performances), it would be a totally different story.



We are not missing 5 of our top 8 players. We are missing 3 of our top 8 players, specifically Abrams, Thorne, and Black. But it is not this game or the outlook of this season that is the problem. I think it is the future outlook of this program. Even if Abrams, Thorne, and Black all return, and we do make it to the NCAA tournament next year, we are still without a top-100 PG or C with Abrams, Thorne, Nunn, and Hill all graduating next season. Unless you get a top ranked recruiting class with multiple difference makers at key positions (PG and C) who will be able to immediately contribute, you are still looking at positional gaps moving forward.

I still think Grove survives 2016. But he better hit a recruiting home run with some top ranked difference makers in 2017. He won't be able to wait 2-3 years to reap the benefits of 2017 recruiting. It is not just about making the tournament next year (as we did 3 years ago). It is about building a program that makes the tournament every year.

Te'jon Lucas is a pretty good start. Also guys like JCL, Jordan and finke have shown tons of promise to be able to potentially fill in the gaps if they keep improving. Also, kipper Nichols has a chance to help that as well. It's not like the cupboard will be bare after next year. And a run to the tourney with as a deep a team as we could have will help bring in more recruits too.

And these aren't comparisons of Groce to izzo so let's not act like it is. The point is that every coach struggles when they lose important pieces especially if it's three.

 

[drew306]

But, what does this take beyond desire and some quickness? We've got a few athletes who should be able to defend. I view this as a development problem rather than a recruitment problem.

Well it takes height and weight too. When you are down your top two big men , leaving a team with only 1 PF and 1 C on the roster (and very average players at that, particularly on the defensive end), that is going to create a matchup problem against most Big Ten teams that John Freaking Wooden couldn't coach around.


And I'll add this as well. There seems to be a mythology developing in this thread that John Groce is a poor recruiter. True, he hasn't landed a top 100 PG or a true center. But lets not kid ourselves here. Have people already forgotten a guy named Leron Black?? I know he's done exactly nothing this year because of injuries, but he happened to be a consensus top 50 recruit. He's not a "stretch 4" as one previous commenter mistakenly posited, he's a true PF who could have been the best inch-for-inch rebounder in the Big Ten if he stayed healthy; I hope we see that player back on the court real soon. Or how about some guy named Jalen Coleman-Lands?!? Also a consensus top-50 recruit! For all the griping about the lack of "player development", Michael Finke seems to have taken quite the step forward, from little heralded recruit to offensive weapon as a Freshman, though he may be in for a rude awakening in conference play.

 

[Cymoin]

Random Reflections

Consider this: we are talking about the value of Tracy Abrams, a Weber recruit who should already be playing somewhere overseas, as Illinois' best PG option. That, my friends, is the single biggest indictment against the current coaching staff. In truth, that sums up everything in an era where guard play is what is winning titles/championships. So Bruce Weber, who left the cupboard bare, provided the roster that got JG to his only NCAA tourney...and still leaves the best option at PG that JG has ever had.

Think about that.

And let me remind you that NW played on the road today without Alex Olah, their leading rebounder, third leading scorer, and the player with the team's highest shooting %age...and they won. Nebraska is no juggernaut but, to me that is as significant a win as today's would have been for the Illini.

And Penn State played extremely hard against a more talented Maryland team...AT MARYLAND! The Terps were down 13 with about 5 minutes to go when the soon-to-be B1G player of the week (NOT DONNAL!) True Freshman Diamond Stone willed the Terps back with 39 points.

Those four things JG cited in his presser are what I saw out of NW and PSU today.

And speaking of the pressers, do any of you listen to these? I think there are a lot of insights that can be gained from watching/listening to these. Often, what is not asked or how a question is asked...and how it is answered or not answered...can provide clues as to where things are trending and possibly what both parties know but are going to avoid addressing...because they like each other. Today, it seemed more time was taken talking about the mumps than the game. And JG spent way too much time apologizing at the front end of this presser about his vagueness in disclosing which player actually had the mumps...going overboard in saying how much he respected the media here and how his lack of forthrightness was just gamesmanship. He could have said that in 10-15 seconds...he took about 2-3 minutes...and it was how he opened the Q&A...go back and watch...interesting.

One more thing about Weber: if he left the cupboard bare, why does he have the K-State program in better shape now than the U of I...and this after having his key player (PG Angel Rodriguez...oh yeah, you know where he went) transfer after his first year there? So his current roster consists solely of his recruits...and they play hard.

For comparison purposes, K-State also played Mizzou and South Dakota. Scores? Well, let's see...how about 93-72 and 66-42...a bit more convincing than Illinois' wins over those same two opponents, no?

Here's a general question: how many coaches do you think are out there that would be doing better with this roster (and the challenges that have arisen) than JG? Not just the B1G but Div I.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

Ill avoid this argument and recall my "hate" term just for you HeartofaChampion.

Regardless, I remember earlier in the season significant outcries whenever he was put in a game. Glad it has subsided.

Revisionist history. :tsk: The so-called outcries were for when he was playing 20+ mpg, not whenever he was put in the game. And any outcries have subsided because JG has hardly played AA for several games.

 

[Obelix]

Te'jon Lucas is a pretty good start. Also guys like JCL, Jordan and finke have shown tons of promise to be able to potentially fill in the gaps if they keep improving. Also, kipper Nichols has a chance to help that as well. It's not like the cupboard will be bare after next year. And a run to the tourney with as a deep a team as we could have will help bring in more recruits too.

As I said in previous post, eventually, some recruit(s) will overachieve as other will underachieve. The problem is basing future success of our program on "expectations" that they will overachieve, combined with expectations of overachievement along multiple dimensions (e.g., recruits, existing players, transfers, etc.) That is the unrealistic part IMO.

And these aren't comparisons of Groce to izzo so let's not act like it is. The point is that every coach struggles when they lose important pieces especially if it's three.

Never said comparisons, I specifically said "references." If anyone meant "comparisons" (I hope not...) they need to see a doctor. And the point is that while coaches may struggle when they lose players (the degree to which may greatly vary), let's not pretend that the dissatisfaction with Groce is specifically about this game (thus the reference to Izzo losing Valentine) or even this season. It is about the the foundation of the program, recruiting, and prior performances; a situation that is totally different than Izzo's.

 

[blmillini]

Nunn and Hill definitely got better near the end of their freshmen year. We haven't seen a healthy Black so I'm not sure about his defending, but we know he's a good rebounder. Mav is what he is, I don't think that's Groce's fault. But I think this freshman class is the first class where you can truly evaluate Groce on defensive development. AJ and DJW are long and athletic. JCL is quick and has a nose for the ball. Finke won't ever be a great rim protector, but he has the IQ and work ethic to be competent defensively. It's only December, let's see how the rest of the season plays out.

Nunn was a pretty good defender from the start but certainly became better playing team defense as his Freshman year progressed.

Hill has never been a very good defender but again, his team defense has become better over time.

Black is a good rebounder but hasn't learned how to bend at the knees, move his feet and not play defense with his hands so he fouls too much and can't stay on the floor.

Mav is what he is, in my opinion, because he has not been properly trained to play good defense. Groce recruited him so it certainly is his responsibility to make him better.

I agree that the Freshmen have potential but I would argue the same is true of the Juniors. Unfortunately, I see a pattern of our coaching staff not successfully teaching fundamentals for successfully playing individual defense and I see that as a problem. The staff seems to do a decent job coaching team defense and that is great but without the ability to be effective man to man, teams will break down defenses that can only play team defense.

Like the other poster noted, I think it is a systemic problem that must be corrected for Illinois and this coaching staff to be successful. Given a certain level of athleticism, defense is very much about desire and fundamentals and we don't show enough desire or sound fundamentals and that is on the coaching staff.

 

[illinitiger]

Revisionist history. :tsk: The so-called outcries were for when he was playing 20+ mpg, not whenever he was put in the game. And any outcries have subsided because JG has hardly played AA for several games.

He played quite a few minutes today and not many whines...and thanks for contibuting to the board, heart.

 

[Jreed322]

As I said in previous post, eventually, some recruit(s) will overachieve as other will underachieve. The problem is basing future success of our program on "expectations" that they will overachieve, combined with expectations of overachievement along multiple dimensions (e.g., recruits, existing players, transfers, etc.) That is the unrealistic part IMO.

I don't think anyone has said anything about current or future players that is "expecting overachievement".

Never said comparisons, I specifically said "references." If anyone meant "comparisons" (I hope not...) they need to see a doctor. And the point is that while coaches may struggle when they lose players (the degree to which may greatly vary), let's not pretend that the dissatisfaction with Groce is specifically about this game (thus the reference to Izzo losing Valentine) or even this season. It is about the the foundation of the program, recruiting, and prior performances; a situation that is totally different than Izzo's.

Fair enough but shouldn't the difference in foundation also be sort of a "no kidding" thought? I actually like the player foundation we've started building here.

Also, and this isn't directed at you, anyone saying there's been little or no player development is fooling themselves. That is all.

 

[ChiCityHoops34]

Well, things Groce could have done to prevent his current situation:

Win 1 recruiting battle amongst his efforts for Jackson, Ratan-Mayes, Alexander, Bragg, Brunson, Evans, Thomas, etc.

Prioritize 50-150 recruits over top 20 recruits at positions of need (i.e. 1 and 5 spots)

Keep Mo Watson's visit on the books instead of cancelling it to go visit Bragg.

Not give Darius Paul a second chance at the expense of Colbert.

Make a change with his assistant coaches.

This is the most frustrating part about Groce to me.

He is a great guy and is loyal, but to a fault. With all the recruiting whiffs I don't see how a shake up of his staff could be viewed as anything other than a positive. Get some new minds working together on staff with a new approach as how to land and develop talent.

 

[lstewart53x3]

Let's stop with the Izzo references. They are outright silly. It is not about one game; heck, it is not even about one season. Izzo has two S16, an E8, and a FF in his last 4 years alone. He has done a great job recruiting, by leaps and bounds above UI. He has the program on a strong foundation. He was undefeated, having the No. 1 team in the nation. Lost away to Iowa... wow, BIG DEAL!

We missed the tournament the last 2 years, and still have not recruited a single top-100 HS PG or C the last 4 years. If it was just about this game, or even this season with injuries, but everything else was on a strong foundation (recruiting, prior performances), it would be a totally different story.



We are not missing 5 of our top 8 players. We are missing 3 of our top 8 players, specifically Abrams, Thorne, and Black. But it is not this game or the outlook of this season that is the problem. I think it is the future outlook of this program. Even if Abrams, Thorne, and Black all return, and we do make it to the NCAA tournament next year, we are still without a top-100 PG or C with Abrams, Thorne, Nunn, and Hill all graduating next season. Unless you get a top ranked recruiting class with multiple difference makers at key positions (PG and C) who will be able to immediately contribute, you are still looking at positional gaps moving forward.

I still think Grove survives 2016. But he better hit a recruiting home run with some top ranked difference makers in 2017. He won't be able to wait 2-3 years to reap the benefits of 2017 recruiting. It is not just about making the tournament next year (as we did 3 years ago). It is about building a program that makes the tournament every year.

Uhm:

#1: my post did not, in any shape or form, compare John Groce to Tom Izzo. My post was merely pointing out the fact that even great coaches with great teams are not great when they are missing players. MSU clearly fell a notch or two with the loss of just 1 player. We're playing without 5 total.

#2: Today, we played without KL, TA, MT, LB, and DP. That's 5 of our top 8, not 3. You don't have to include DP if you don't like, that's understandable. Still, though, we played this game without 4 of our top 8 players.

My post didn't argue that we'd be a great team with those 4 extra players, but we'd certainly be better.

 

[brosox]

GI apologize in advance for being more simple-minded than the basketball experts who post on this board. Like many of you, I truly wish that Groce had successfully recruited that all elusive point guard. Nevertheless, based on the team that Groce recruited for this year, I thought that we would make the tournament. However, none of Finke, Morgan, Jordan or Austen---each of whom played a decent amount of minutes in today's game---would have been part of the regular 8 man rotation that I projected for that tournament team. Let's see, we are missing our first true inside scorer in years who was also averaging over 8 rebounds per game, a big who averaged a double double during the trip to Europe, our toughest player and our best on the ball defender, and another big who many here thought would provide inside defense and some scoring. If you truly don't think that makes a different, go ask Beilein why his Michigan team, missing only two of its top 8, finished at 16-16 last year with a team many thought would compete for a big ten championship. Assuming Thorne and Abrams get their medical redshirts, we will be a deep, experienced and talented team next year. If we don't make the tourney, I will be right with you in calling for a new coach. Until that happens, any talk of firing Groce is not only preposterous, it is counter-productive to developing a good program.

 

[karmapoliceman]

I think it's funny, not so much in a haha way, but more of a sad way, where we are now compared to a year ago.

We played MICH a year ago to the day, albeit on the road.

We lost that game. We lost this game.

I remember Aubrey Dawkins torching nets last year. A no name at the time. He pretty much single handedly won them that game 365 days ago.

This year? Different venue (we were at home!) different no name player. Same disappointing result.

I watched the game at a bar this afternoon and refuse to look up the "career game" star of the night this time around.

Sorry. Groce is lost as a coach. Not as a person. Not as a recruiter even. As a coach. As in "head coach" John Groce.

I know. I. Know. The injuries.

But you can't tell me with a straight face that ANY team can continually experience second half collapses (AT HOME even (!)) like we have without it being the result of something bigger than personnel.

Sure, our interior presence is all but nonexistent. We're going to live and die by the three. Granted.

But.

We still got absolutely abused by MICH inside 365 days later on the same EXACT friggin' plays that cost us the game last year.

We choked.

This is getting real old.

ILL

 

[Obelix]

I don't think anyone has said anything about current or future players that is "expecting overachievement".

You mentioned Tejon Lucas responding to my post mentioning recruiting gaps at PG and C, especially the lack to recruit a top-100 HS PG and C. Lucas is not a top-100 PG (and neither was Tate) so he will indeed have to overachieve to fill the gap at PG. In addition, as I mentioned, even IF (and that is a big IF) Thorne does indeed come back, he will graduate. You still do not have a top-100 C. Even your backup C (Morgan) is gone.

Then you lose Hill and Nunn, two key top-100 performers who will be graduating as well. JCL has indeed shown promise. But he is already in the main 3-wing rotation. So you have to "expect" some other players (e.g., you mentioned AJ, Kipper) to fill their shoes. Problem is that Nunn/Hill were top-100 recruits, so you "expect" lower level recruits to reach that level.

But, current course and speed, the main recruiting gaps remain (PG and C). Unless Groce hits some 2017 true top ranked difference makers at key positions (i.e., PG and C) who can contribute immediately.

 

[muskyman99]

I am glad that the discussion finally includes coaching. Groce won just over 50 percent of his games at Ohio. The run to the final sixteen was the only positive on his resume. I think his recruiting has been ok. Coming in second on the two top PG's last year wasn't that bad. In his defense if Thorne and Black were healthy we would be doing fine even with low level PG's. Now to coaching. When you take over a mediocre program you have to elevate the program with 3star recruits. He has not shown that ability. I think all of the injuries will give him one more year, but coaching changes have to come. For example, my son played center on a high level Illinois high school team. Everyday one of the coaches would take him aside and work on his post moves. Drop step, etc. Egwu was a four year starter and his only post move was a fade away jumper from 15 feet.

 

[Bomb Squad 217]

#2: Today, we played without KL, TA, MT, LB, and DP. That's 5 of our top 8, not 3. You don't have to include DP if you don't like, that's understandable. Still, though, we played this game without 4 of our top 8 players.

Its as simple as this. People cant seem to grasp it at all. Until this changes, which may not be until next year, results like today are going to happen. Maybe not every game, I hope, but they will happen. We have too many injuries. Thats all there is to it. Its not that hard to understand.

 

[Illest]

1) The '98 team had a terrible Big Ten record, but the Big Ten was by far the best conference in the country that year, and we nonetheless managed to make the final of the BTT, beating a Final Four team (Ohio State) along the way. In kenpom's ranking (which sadly is no longer available), I believe we were ranked 50-something in the country at the end of the year. This year's team is currently ranked 119th.

2) Yes, we have a lot of injuries. But we would not have been a good team, even healthy. Last year's team was ranked lower by kenpom than all but the last Weber squad. We were ranked 60th in kenpom's preseason ranking, which indicates that a tourney bid would most likely have been an uphill struggle. This, after already missing the tourney two consecutive years. From 1983 to 2007, we were too mediocre for the tourney in a grand total of three seasons.

3) Our defensive problems are not simply a result of injuries. Abrams is our only injured player who is an above average defender. Groce has not been an exceptional defensive coach; last year's team was already only 49th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is worse than every Weber team but one. Our only genuinely good defensive team under Groce was his second squad.

4) Recruiting is not a source of hope. If anything, we are only becoming less competitive for the level of players required to return to our historical quality. There have been way too many filler players on our roster ever since Groce's arrival.

 

[Obelix]

#1: my post did not, in any shape or form, compare John Groce to Tom Izzo. My post was merely pointing out the fact that even great coaches with great teams are not great when they are missing players. MSU clearly fell a notch or two with the loss of just 1 player. We're playing without 5 total.

Again, you can read my prior response to you. I specifically, mentioned "reference" not "comparison," which is still irrelevant. The issue with Groce is not this game, or this season with injuries, but rather that this is a third year with not making the tournament (unless a miracle) and 4 years without being able to address huge recruiting gaps at PG/C with a single top-100 HS recruit. You think that if Groce had great performances (like Izzo or anyone else) in prior years and did not have the major recruiting gaps 4 years in a row that it would be the same? We would not even be discussing this. I think Groce survives 2016, but I am not kidding myself that we have a very strong foundation, especially in recruiting key positions, moving forward. And the problem is not Michigan today or just this season with injuries.

#2: Today, we played without KL, TA, MT, LB, and DP. That's 5 of our top 8, not 3. You don't have to include DP if you don't like, that's understandable. Still, though, we played this game without 4 of our top 8 players.

I think Paul is straightly on Groce. When you give a troubled player 4 chances to mess up, before kicking him out, you can't use it as an excuse.

But it is a bigger problem that we conveniently include Khalid Lewis in our top 8 players, when the predominant excuse was that even Tate was a lot better (during Tate's injury). For the record, our top 8 are Abrams, JCL, Nunn, Hill, Finke, Black, Thorne, and Mav. You can even argue Tate over Lewis as well as AJ and DJW.

 

[illinitiger]

Again, you can read my prior response to you. I specifically, mentioned "reference" not "comparison," which is still irrelevant. The issue with Groce is not this game, or this season with injuries, but rather that this is a third year with not making the tournament (unless a miracle) and 4 years without being able to address huge recruiting gaps at PG/C with a single top-100 HS recruit. You think that if Groce had great performances (like Izzo or anyone else) in prior years and did not have the major recruiting gaps 4 years in a row that it would be the same? We would not even be discussing this. I think Groce survives 2016, but I am not kidding myself that we have a very strong foundation, especially in recruiting key positions, moving forward. And the problem is not Michigan today or just this season with injuries.



I think Paul is straightly on Groce. When you give a troubled player 4 chances to mess up, before kicking him out, you can't use it as an excuse.

But it is a bigger problem that we conveniently include Khalid Lewis in our top 8 players, when the predominant excuse was that even Tate was a lot better (during Tate's injury). For the record, our top 8 are Abrams, JCL, Nunn, Hill, Finke, Black, Thorne, and Mav. You can even argue Tate over Lewis as well as AJ and DJW.

With Thorne and black in rotation, not sure MM is in the top 8. That's 4 of the top 8 at 4 and 5 positions.

 

[IlliniRon]

Missed tonight's game, which is probably due to no longer making this a priority, given the struggles lately.

I do like Coach Groce, still a great guy, but the more I see of him as a head coach in the Big 10, I wonder if he has what it takes to be a head coach at this level. Major conference basketball is a long way from Ohio and their schedule.

The injuries are a major factor this season, but as many point out, we were not going to be a factor anyway this season. At least not after the incident in France this summer.

From the roster this year, I really like Hill, Nunn and JCL. They are real players and all wing players, interestingly enough. I don't like seeing Hill at the 4, but this is necessary now. I like Finke's potential as a big man. I think Morgan was a recruiting error. Thorne is a nice transfer, but we really need to recruit the 4 year players and not fill holes with transfers.

Recruiting will need to pick up dramatically, or Coach Groce will not be able to continue as head coach. Hate to say it, but I think we can all agree. Having a bunch of wing players who can shoot 3's does not make a competitive basketball team in the Big 10.

As someone pointed out, the only way to be competitive at this point, with all of the injuries and rebounding issues, would be to try playing a full court pressing defense and running the fast break on offense. I don't see this happening, but we don't have a conventional roster available for this season.

INI

 

[Obelix]

With Thorne and black in rotation, not sure MM is in the top 8. That's 4 of the top 8 at 4 and 5 positions.

If you count Abrams as a loss, then Khalid Lewis is not even in the 10 man rotation, not even at UI. You can't say we are missing Abrams in the top 8, and then not count him. Mav is clearly ahead of Lewis as on of our top players. Excluding Paul, who should not be counted, here was the projected rotation and best players:

PG: Abrams, Tate
SG: Nunn, JCL
SF: Hill, JCL, AJ
PF: Finke, Black, DJW
C: Thorne, Mav

Khalid is not a top 8 player, let's not kid ourselves. Not even close. Actually, when all were healthy indeed, Groce played Thorne/Mav at 5 and Black/Finke at PF.

 

[TCTORNADO]

JCL has moved into 9th place on the all time Freshman 3 pt made list with 32 total. Next on the list is Brandon Paul with 36 made. Bradford leads with 85. JCL just moved ahead of Garris and Nunn (31).

 

[UIGrad03]

Playing a full court press with this roster would be absolute career suicide. Holy crap I'm imagining all the dunks that guys like Hill, Finke, Morgan would allow while trying to press.

 

[HoustonIllini]

In my opinion, all of the vitriol directed towards Coach Groce on this board is not only coming from a lack of perspective and understanding but it is also damaging to the program. Every college basketball expert I have heard or read has praised Groce for the job he has done under tough circumstances. No, the Illini are not a good basketball team this year. When you are down 3 of your 5 starters that whole year that tends to be the case. Nothing I am seeing suggests that John Groce is a poor in-game basketball coach, simply that the Illini are going to be over matched in Big Ten play based on personnel (seriously, we have one point guard, one 4, and one 5 healthy, what do you people expect??). Firing Groce after this year would be disastrous for the program.

POTFY - Groce is the future of this program, and if all the naysayers and Negative Nancies continue with the vitriol, we'll continue to have teams that match the image that the state of Illinois projects out to the rest of the nation - that of an incompetent, welfare entity looking for a handout. That is NOT the Illinois that I've known.

 

[LubbockIlliniFan]

So if we lose out do we get be first pick in the draft???

 

[IlliiniLegacy]

POTFY - Groce is the future of this program, and if all the naysayers and Negative Nancies continue with the vitriol, we'll continue to have teams that match the image that the state of Illinois projects out to the rest of the nation - that of an incompetent, welfare entity looking for a handout. That is NOT the Illinois that I've known.

So, you're saying that state of the of the program is the because of the Negative Nancies and Naysayers? If so, that's ridiculous. Call me out if I'm reading it incorrectly.