Pregame: Illinois vs Nebraska, Saturday, January 16th, 1:30pm CT, BTN

[GameOfThrows]

All of you fans saying this season is all about pride and we have no chance at The Dance must know something I don't: The Future. Care to let some of us know what stocks to buy, who to take in the NFL play-offs, and the lottery numbers for this weekend would be appreciated.

IF Thorne and/or Black return by February, this team can make the NCAA tourney. I'm not predicting that we will make the tourney, but to claim that the NIT is the best this team can do is quite a defeatist attitude and short-sighted.

Currently our team has a 1 -2 punch on offense, good outside shooting, and an improving defense. We lack good PG play and interior D and rebounding. Thorne and/or Black solve two of our issues. Tate and Lewis are steady enough with all of our offensive weapons that we will be able to beat good teams if one or both of our bigs return.

As far as red-shirting either Thorne or Black, it doesn't make sense to red-shirt either one if they can help this team make the tourney. Making the tourney is paramount to the success of a basketball program. Miss the Dance, and you miss national exposure, while your rivals gain it.

 

[zpfled]

This is the type of game we need to win if we are going to have a successful season. There is no more room for losses at home to teams that are not ranked.

 

[UofIChE06]

Ok both sides of the fence need to calm down. Everything is possible technically. There are 14 games remaining not including the BTT. Therefore it is possible although unlikely to finish 23-8. It is also possible although unlikely to finish 9-22. They will finish somewhere between that. Objectively it is likely that anything more than 3 losses in those 14 will require BTT wins. That being said any team can get hot and win the BTT and get in when they wouldn't otherwise. UI has done it before. If pressed I would think 2 BTT wins correlate to 3 regular season wins for reference.

 

[aluma]

I'm not sure where to put this because we don't really have a thread open about player production and development. But in the beginning of the year I predicted Finke had the potential to be very similar to Jon Leuer from Wisconsin. I compared their heights, weights, and overall skillset and they were incredibly similar players coming out of high school. With about half the season in the books, it's very interesting to see how Finke's statistics add up compared to Leuer's. The one major difference between them is that Finke redshirted and Leuer didn't, so I'll just compare Finke's redshirt freshman year to Leuer's sophomore year.

Finke: 6'10" 230 lbs.
21.8 minutes per game
9.8 ppg
3.6 rpg
1.3 apg
Fg% .504
3pt% .418
FT% .742

Leuer: 6'10" 225 lbs.
21.3 mpg
8.8 ppg
3.8 rpg
0.8 apg
Fg% .466
3pt% .296
FT% 605

Leuer went on to have a huge jump from his sophomore year to his junior year. In my opinion, at the very least, I think Finke's junior year can match or exceed Leuer's junior year numbers. And that is VERY VERY exciting!!! It's also worth noting that Finke's listed weight is already higher than Leuer's highest listed college weight. So it makes me think that Finke's issue right now has more to do with strength than it does weight.

 

[ssanti13]

I'm not sure where to put this because we don't really have a thread open about player production and development. But in the beginning of the year I predicted Finke had the potential to be very similar to Jon Leuer from Wisconsin. I compared their heights, weights, and overall skillset and they were incredibly similar players coming out of high school. With about half the season in the books, it's very interesting to see how Finke's statistics add up compared to Leuer's. The one major difference between them is that Finke redshirted and Leuer didn't, so I'll just compare Finke's redshirt freshman year to Leuer's sophomore year.

Finke: 6'10" 230 lbs.
21.8 minutes per game
9.8 ppg
3.6 rpg
1.3 apg
Fg% .504
3pt% .418
FT% .742

Leuer: 6'10" 225 lbs.
21.3 mpg
8.8 ppg
3.8 rpg
0.8 apg
Fg% .466
3pt% .296
FT% 605

Leuer went on to have a huge jump from his sophomore year to his junior year. In my opinion, at the very least, I think Finke's junior year can match or exceed Leuer's junior year numbers. And that is VERY VERY exciting!!! It's also worth noting that Finke's listed weight is already higher than Leuer's highest listed college weight. So it makes me think that Finke's issue right now has more to do with strength than it does weight.

This is pretty interesting. I'm really starting to appreciate that Finke redshirted. He filled out noticeably since last year, and I would love to see him pack on some more size and get his strength up. Fletcher has got to be excited about him as a project.

Another thing...I saw some earlier posts debating this, but right now should we expect to see Finke start at the 4 next year, or a healthy Leron? I can't decide if Finke's scoring or Lerons energy would be more valuable coming off the bench.

 

[zoggle101]

MF needs to still improve his strength and athleticism to match Leuer. MF might have an inch on JL, and a little better standing reach. Let's not forget the stats shown for Leuer were pre 30 second shot clock, and it was playing Bo ball and not JG uptempo O. MF's stats have been helped out by DP's dismissal, LB's and MT's injuries. With that stated I still love Finkes upside. I just don't think he's on Leuer's level. He is a Kyle Wiltjer lite type right now with Kyle Wiltjer plus upside.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

This is the type of game we need to win if we are going to have a successful season. There is no more room for losses at home to teams that are not ranked.

+1. The W over PU is totally negated if we lose to an unranked opponent at home that has an RPI around 100. Need to bring similar intensity, effort and focus this weekend that we displayed so nicely on Sunday. If we do, we should win by 7-10 points. If we play flat or up and down, we could easily get upset.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

Right now should we expect to see Finke start at the 4 next year, or a healthy Leron? I can't decide if Finke's scoring or Lerons energy would be more valuable coming off the bench.

Might depend on MT. If MT gets a medical RS and plays next year, MF would be a nice complement to him at the 4 in the starting lineup. If MT isn't back next year, we'll probably need MF to start at the 5 next season with LB at the 4.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

MF needs to still improve his strength and athleticism to match Leuer. MF might have an inch on JL, and a little better standing reach. Let's not forget the stats shown for Leuer were pre 30 second shot clock, and it was playing Bo ball and not JG uptempo O. MF's stats have been helped out by DP's dismissal, LB's and MT's injuries. With that stated I still love Finkes upside. I just don't think he's on Leuer's level. He is a Kyle Wiltjer lite type right now with Kyle Wiltjer plus upside.

He's not as athletic as JL, but I think MF's shooting form is better.

 

[temperedexpectations]

All of you fans saying this season is all about pride and we have no chance at The Dance must know something I don't: The Future. Care to let some of us know what stocks to buy, who to take in the NFL play-offs, and the lottery numbers for this weekend would be appreciated.

IF Thorne and/or Black return by February, this team can make the NCAA tourney. I'm not predicting that we will make the tourney, but to claim that the NIT is the best this team can do is quite a defeatist attitude and short-sighted.

Currently our team has a 1 -2 punch on offense, good outside shooting, and an improving defense. We lack good PG play and interior D and rebounding. Thorne and/or Black solve two of our issues. Tate and Lewis are steady enough with all of our offensive weapons that we will be able to beat good teams if one or both of our bigs return.

As far as red-shirting either Thorne or Black, it doesn't make sense to red-shirt either one if they can help this team make the tourney. Making the tourney is paramount to the success of a basketball program. Miss the Dance, and you miss national exposure, while your rivals gain it.

Nah i dont think there's anything wrong with having hope and being excited about the chance to make a run, that's why we watch sports, it's the thrill of the hunt.

Watching Nunn become a well rounded and complete player has been exciting, as well as the player MH has become. You can't deny the probability of us making the NCAA's with our current record is pretty slim though, most sites have us as a 2% chance of making the field this year, i just figured most people had resigned themselves to watching the development but i guess hope springs eternal.

 

[zoggle101]

He's not as athletic as JL, but I think MF's shooting form is better.

I totally agree! The kid is extremely blessed on the skill tip!

We have guys cutting to the hoop and in K Nunn's case throwing down visish finishes. I saw a lot of high IQ plays against Purdue especially the K Nunn throw down. I believe JCL set that up by working his area of the court making the defense adjust to his two hard dribbles even though there wasn't much room to operate a couple dribbles opened up lanes to cut and pass all over the court.

 

[Adnarel]

Just got 2 free tickets for this game, aawwwwww yeaaaa

Gonna go and make up for any volume the student section doesn't provide themselves (if any).

 

[Jreed322]

We're not going to the tournament. If you consider an NIT appearance an aspiration for this team, than fine. Otherwise in my eyes it's about doing the things we can control(energy,defensive effort), improving as a unit and beating an inferior conference opponent at home--aka pride.

Chattanooga is not a bad team at all. But the way in which we lost that game was very disappointing. We lost to a good team, but the way in which we lost makes it a bad loss in my eyes. Just my opinion though.

There's absolutely no way you can we're not going to the tournament.

 

[Butkuser]

At this point is the season, the eight teams we have lost to have a combined record of 108 wins and 32 losses.

All of them are in double digits in the win column and single digits in the loss column.

The worst record is 12-6, and OSU team we almost beat at their place with a depleted roster, and who just beat MD at home.

We are working hard to overcome a lot, and we are getting better. I think we need to give some credit to the level of competition we have faced during this patchwork season.

 

[Butkuser]

Just for the sake of completion, the opponents we have beaten have a combined W-L record of 80-73.

If you throw out the W's and L's for the worst two, Chicago St. and UIC, the combined record is 74-45.

I haven't done any comparisons to other BIG teams, but I have to figure that is maybe par for the course or a little better, sans a few teams like MSU who play tough competition every season.

Again, this is with a depleted roster. Our season may be frustrating, and our record may not reflect it at 9-8, but we may not be as bad as some think.

Also, NU will give us some real info about whether we have turned a corner. A solid win will allay, to some degree, the angst we have all felt thus far.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

I hesitate to evaluate a team/season on the basis of just a couple of games, but this game has the potential to tell me a lot about direction. We have a tendency (under just about every coach I've been around for) to play down to poor opposition. If this team comes out with effort and intensity then I think there's a shot at turning things around and making some noise. If they don't, then the jury is still out, but the bottom line, as has been mentioned many times, is that we have to beat the teams that are below us on paper to even have a shot at the dance.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

We need to avoid the letdown after a big win against PU.

 

[jrichisamazing]

I think the Purdue win is getting to people's heads a bit. And I'd like to think I'm one of the more optimistic posters here. Nebraska is a tougher test for our team. We handled a similar Purdue team at home last year, and were crushing them at their place before beating ourselves. It's easy to play defense against Purdue, just pack the paint and let them shoot as many 3's as they want.

But as long as we play with energy I think we'll beat Nebraska. Luckily, they also don't have too many 3-pt shooters. They have some efficient shooters but, outside of White, they prefer to get in the lane. I think a major turning point could be who gets in foul trouble first, Hill or Shields. I'm assuming they will be guarding each other, and both players are good at drawing fouls.

 

[indianapolisillini]

Fools Gold - rebounding & shooting %

The unexpected Purdue win was really nice. Shooting was at an all time high and our defense was better.

But... not to be a Debbie Downer.... WE STILL HAVE A HUGE REBOUNDING PROBLEM. We can't continue to win consistently w/ huge deficits on the offensive boards. And w/ this team, I still maintain it's a function of effort/commitment. We often only send 1 player to the glass & our shooter often doesn't even follow his shot. Last night, it was very noticeable how Iowa & Mich St attacked the glass on the offensive end.... often w/4. I think it's hard to argue that 2 attacking the offensive glass is twice as good as 1. And 3 is probably 3 times better. I'll let you decide what 4 can provide.

I believe it's now our Achilles heal, but is fairly correctable. Reducing the "offensive rebounding deficit is a must to be consistent winners. There is at least a delta of a dozen points a game on the table. We just need to be committed to wanting it.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

The unexpected Purdue win was really nice. Shooting was at an all time high and our defense was better.

But... not to be a Debbie Downer.... WE STILL HAVE A HUGE REBOUNDING PROBLEM. We can't continue to win consistently w/ huge deficits on the offensive boards. And w/ this team, I still maintain it's a function of effort/commitment. We often only send 1 player to the glass & our shooter often doesn't even follow his shot. Last night, it was very noticeable how Iowa & Mich St attacked the glass on the offensive end.... often w/4. I think it's hard to argue that 2 attacking the offensive glass is twice as good as 1. And 3 is probably 3 times better. I'll let you decide what 4 can provide.

I believe it's now our Achilles heal, but is fairly correctable. Reducing the "offensive rebounding deficit is a must to be consistent winners. There is at least a delta of a dozen points a game on the table. We just need to be committed to wanting it.

Our rebounding problem is mainly on the defensive side. And nearly completely due to having our 2 best guys at doing that in street clothes.

Going after offensive boards is more of a strategic question, not effort. Groce has chosen to try and help out with our poor transition defense by abandoning the opportunity to crash the boards. A lot of other coaches (and very successful coaches) have also made this choice. And I can't really disagree with it as our offense overall is still pretty good. And our defense is improving, but still needs all the help it can get.

 

[Greensboro]

But... not to be a Debbie Downer.... WE STILL HAVE A HUGE REBOUNDING PROBLEM. We can't continue to win consistently w/ huge deficits on the offensive boards. And w/ this team, I still maintain it's a function of effort/commitment. We often only send 1 player to the glass & our shooter often doesn't even follow his shot. Last night, it was very noticeable how Iowa & Mich St attacked the glass on the offensive end.... often w/4. I think it's hard to argue that 2 attacking the offensive glass is twice as good as 1. And 3 is probably 3 times better. I'll let you decide what 4 can provide.

I believe it's now our Achilles heal, but is fairly correctable. Reducing the "offensive rebounding deficit is a must to be consistent winners. There is at least a delta of a dozen points a game on the table. We just need to be committed to wanting it.

Without Thorne & Black, playing a lot of 4 guards we aren't going to be a good rebounding team. Best thing to do is just make all of our shots, then the other team won't get any defensive rebounds...problem solved. But seriously it will bite us this year, we need to make up for it by winning the turnover battle & getting to the line where we have been very good...and of course shooting 50+%.

 

[indianapolisillini]

Our rebounding problem is mainly on the defensive side. And nearly completely due to having our 2 best guys at doing that in street clothes.

Going after offensive boards is more of a strategic question, not effort. Groce has chosen to try and help out with our poor transition defense by abandoning the opportunity to crash the boards. A lot of other coaches (and very successful coaches) have also made this choice. And I can't really disagree with it as our offense overall is still pretty good. And our defense is improving, but still needs all the help it can get.

Apparently we both agree that we make almost no effort toward offensive rebounding. You're just saying that you think it's strategic. I was hoping it was just a coaching oversight instead of being strategic.

I maintain that NO team needs 4 guys trotting back on defense when a shot goes in the air. This team has NEVER had a problem w/ transition defense. But, why would we - we've got that quadruple covered. We put effort in on the defensive side of the ball (I'm sure that's strategic too). But, I don't think there is a lot of room for improvement in that area considering our current roster. But I do strongly believe we have opportunities on the offensive side.

Personally, I think it's VERY VERY poor decision to strategically make almost no effort to win the offensive boards. Below are our stats for the last 5 games. Throw out the Ohio St game and it's UGLY. I believe that "strategically not trying" on the offensive glass spots the other team about 10 points a game. Can't we at least send 2 or 3 to the glass?

Offensive rebounds are huge. If we got our share of offensive rebounds, the defensive rebound margin would be pretty much EVEN as you'd subtract from our opponents defensive rebound totals for pretty much every offensive rebound we got. I don't think defensive rebounding is NEARLY as big of an issue as offensive. And I maintain it's not because we can't, but it's because we make no effort. I just hope you're not right and it's NOT our STRATEGY.

Illinois Opponent
OFF Def OFF Def
6 26 10 33 Mizzou
6 21 10 28 Michigan
9 24 11 31 Ohio St
5 22 10 36 Mich St
2 23 10 21 Purdue

5.6 23.2 10.2 29.8 Avg

 

[whovous]

It is not only our strategy. Many other teams follow the same idea.

 

[Bob Christiansen]

Offensive boards absolutely kill defenses. Defense is where you bust your !!!...you "rest" on offense. When a team plays good 1/2 court defense, forces the opponent to settle for an 18-20 foot jumper...and they get an offensive rebound, and a fresh shot clock...VERY demoralizing. Been there, done that...

 

[Dan]

[YOUTUBE]0LarV1SytYc[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]_-EOgtwIcto[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]RpZN82BTiwQ[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]NXfTUmQ98Xc[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]p4Rq3UkyeGk[/YOUTUBE]