Without knowing how the bubble will look in March, we can still get a decent feel for how many wins Illinois would need to have a chance at an at-large bid.
RPIForecast.com gives us the ability to simulate the rest of the season and spit out RPI ranks for Illinois given various records. After doing this, I feel like the following statements are valid:
1) Illinois needs at least 21 wins on Selection Sunday to even be considered for an at-large bid.
2) Illinois needs at least 22 wins on Selection Sunday to have a greater than 50% chance at getting an at-large bid.
3) Illinois would be a lock with 23 wins.
Finishing with 21 wins would give Illinois an RPI in the mid-60s, regardless of how they got there. We know that raw RPI rank isn't used directly to put teams in or out, but I don't believe a team with an RPI worse than 67th has ever gotten an at-large bid. A 21-win Illinois team would at least have a chance of getting in, but it might still not be likely.
Finishing with 22 wins would give Illinois an RPI in the low to mid-50s. Major conference teams with an RPI in this range are almost always in the bubble discussion. Some get in, some don't. At 22 wins, Illinois' resume would be scrutinized in much greater detail, so the distribution of wins would become even more important (i.e. a home win over Iowa would be much more valuable than a road win over Wisconsin, even though each would have the same impact on RPI).
It's unlikely that Illinois gets to the 21 win threshold, but I haven't given up on the possibility yet. It would require something like 11-7 in conference play combined with two BTT wins. Given the weakness in the lower half of the Big Ten and Illinois' favorable conference schedule, it's still possible. It will take an improved level of performance from what we've seen so far, but the youth and inexperience of the team gives some reason to hope that they are actually turning a corner.
Or, they could lose to Nebraska and dash all of this newfound optimism.
