John Groce at Illinois

[Obelix]

You fire a head coach only if you have a reasonable expectation of hiring a better one. What I am expressing is not fear of risk (but thanks for the life lessons), rather, it's asking the question: Why are we assuming we're going to get a better coach?

Every program who fires a coach and replaces them with another has expectations that the coach will do better. There is no logic that says that next year our chances of hiring a better coach will be better either. Why would anyone assume that we will do worse? There is no guarantee either way, but that is also true on every business decision.

As far as the program, Illinois definitely has great potential. As history has shown in the example I gave, we have hired very good coaches in the past. It may be unreasonable to expect to steal an existing HOF coach from a program higher in the basketball hierarchy or the hottest name in the market but it is certainly reasonable expectations to hire a very good coach.

 

[Foggy Notion]

There are good coaches out there that would come to Illinois. Thinking we can't do better is a loser attitude. Maybe Groce can salvage this season and prove he deserves another year but I'm not seeing it right now. We only have 1 committed player and should have a team capable of making the tournament in place for next season. This would be the ideal time to make a change.

Firing Groce in his fourth year, with all of the extenuating circumstances, would make the job less appealing for the next candidate.

 

[IlliniOX08]

There are good coaches out there that would come to Illinois. Thinking we can't do better is a loser attitude. Maybe Groce can salvage this season and prove he deserves another year but I'm not seeing it right now. We only have 1 committed player and should have a team capable of making the tournament in place for next season. This would be the ideal time to make a change.

Two separate issues here. The fans want to win and they want a coach who would deliver recruits, exciting basketball, wins and deep tourney runs.

My issue is that the administration might have a "loser attitude" simply from how inept they are. Do you really have confidence in them hiring the coach that Illinois' capabilities merit?

 

[zpfled]

Bryce Drew makes $285,000

Thanks for providing a real option.

I am still in Groce's corner, but this is a much more interesting discussion when it's Groce vs. another real coach instead of Groce vs. Hypothetical Wundercoach (who I am convinced will not come to Illinois).

 

[zpfled]

First time posting in this thread, only read a couple of pages to get a feel for the vibe. Apologies if I regurgitate anything that has already been argued.

Mostly regurgitated, but there's a couple new things below...

Has nobody else noticed parallels to football under Zook yet? Capable recruiter - but majority of talent at a few positions (for Zook, that was WR, and for Groce, 2/3) - and not a lot of emphasis placed on class balance, poor discipline, not great with in-game adjustments. I know mentioning football on this side of the board is tabboo, but just something worth mentioning.

Groce has recruited:
Forwards: Thorne, Black, Finke, Morgan, Colbert, McLaurin
(4 freshmen, 2 transfers)

Wings: Hill, Nunn, DWill, AJ, JCL, Kipper, Rice, Cosby
(5 freshmen, 2 transfers)

PGs: TJL, Tate, Starks
(This is been a problem area, for sure)

Am I forgetting anyone? That is not a significant majority of talent at one position. Yeah, there's a slight majority of talent at the wing, but that's a pretty good balance (outside of the PG issue).

A pair of questions to everyone:

(1) What would you say our identity has been under Groce as a team?

(2) Would you say this is an identity we can build on or that sounds like it can be successful in the long term?

1. Injured (Seriously, that is THE storyline of half of Groce's time here)
2. No, but at some point our injury bug has to go away, right?

 

[RVILLINI76]

what's Great about Groce

Complaint #1 Groce can't recruit
Answer: It's true we are not a program with a great rep as a stepping stone for the pros. Who cares! I'd much rather have a coach of integrity like Groce than some sleaze who is paying his players under the table or procuring prostitutes for them. I have watched how our coach treats his players and it's clear he cares more about the well being of his student/athletes than he does about winning. That means we have a coach that thoughtful parents would want their son to play for. Paul family is a great example. Coach handled that situation extraordinarily well.


Further answer to Groce can't recruit.

1. Groce has brought onboard "Illini Guys" players who want to be here with good attitudes as far as I can tell. Nunn, Hill, Thorne, Jalen-Coleman-Lands,
Finke are a few examples of talented hard working unselfish team players.
Last years guard transfers were not as good.
2. We are hardly a destination that 5 star players are trying to get to so it's a hard sell.
3. We lost one elite guard prospect to an east coast team that offered his dad a job. (slease) Another guards plane got sidetracked to Indy getting the visit off on the wrong foot & emphasizing how far we were away from his home--
another was convinced by his mom to change his commitment back to the home town team and another was also convinced by family to stay at home

More on recruitment.
When Groce got here the cupboard was bare. After Brandon & D.J graduated
Groce basically had to clean house because we had many players on the bench who did not belong at the D1 level.
Weber (bless him) really only recruited in Illinois Groce has recruited Illinois
Hill, Nunn, Tate, Williams, ( restarted the Simeon pipeline)Starks, Rice, Finke.
but has TjL coming from Wisconsin and got a commitment from JCL from INDIANA -- that does not happen to often.


Complaint : Groce can't recognize talent
Last year's guard transfers were not the best butTJL seems to be rising in national ranking and JCL, Finke, Black, Jordan, Thorne, Hill & Nunn are all
first rate players. Nunn's thunderdunk in the Purdue game took a perfect pass from frosh JCL. We are still rebuilding at the point with all our injuries but talent is not our problem.


Complaint Groce can't develop his players.

Just not so. How many of us ever thought that Mav or Tate would ever be serviceable or that Lewis would be at all effective. My goodness look at Mav!
He is actually making strides. He may be a big slow white guy who can't jump but he is actually providing serviceable minutes this year. And our freshmen WOW. Finke is effective. JCL is making an impact and Jordan & Williams are improving too. The defense is slowly coming too. The D in the Purdue game was a big improvement.


Complaint: Groce can't Coach
Reply: I'm not sure I'm that great a judge of x's & o's but the gameplan and execution in the Purdue game were exceptional. Very few of us thought we had a prayer of winning after the Michigan State letdown. BUT WE DID!
My pet gametime peeve is to see us come out of a timeout and the other team gain's momentum. I've seen to much of this under most Illinois coach's in the last 50+ years.
Personally since high school I enjoy teams that don't waste free throw opportunities and don't turn the ball over much and those aspects of the game have been good under Groce.
Frequently here I listen to complaints about inbound plays under Groce but
one of the greatest plays in the history of Illinois basketball was the inbounds PLAY OF THE YEAR to beat " 1 Indiana.

 

[alexander58]

Complaint: Groce can't Coach
Reply: I'm not sure I'm that great a judge of x's & o's but the gameplan and execution in the Purdue game were exceptional. Very few of us thought we had a prayer of winning after the Michigan State letdown. BUT WE DID!
My pet gametime peeve is to see us come out of a timeout and the other team gain's momentum. I've seen to much of this under most Illinois coach's in the last 50+ years.
Personally since high school I enjoy teams that don't waste free throw opportunities and don't turn the ball over much and those aspects of the game have been good under Groce.
Frequently here I listen to complaints about inbound plays under Groce but
one of the greatest plays in the history of Illinois basketball was the inbounds PLAY OF THE YEAR to beat " 1 Indiana.

While I think the game plan for Purdue was sound, I think Purdue's style of play is straightforward and therefore fairly easy to counter. That's not an indictment of Groce. I think by and large , he has been pretty good . My consistent complaints have been a lack of defensive intensity and a prpensity to give up easy baskets on inbounds plays. The recruits brought in have improved in his tenure. The freshmen class will be very good before they're through.If and when bodies can get healthy , Groce can then be fairly judged.

 

[IlliniOllie]

Complaint Groce can't develop his players.

Just not so. How many of us ever thought that Mav or Tate would ever be serviceable or that Lewis would be at all effective. My goodness look at Mav!
He is actually making strides. He may be a big slow white guy who can't jump but he is actually providing serviceable minutes this year. And our freshmen WOW. Finke is effective. JCL is making an impact and Jordan & Williams are improving too. The defense is slowly coming too. The D in the Purdue game was a big improvement.

Didn't Mav win an Ohio Player Of The Year award in high school? I think it was expected that he'd be at least serviceable, if not good. He wasn't some entirely unknown recruit.

 

[Adnarel]

Despite lots of nuances in posters' philosophies of what the program should be in the future or even what it is at this very moment, there's a pretty solid consensus that next year should be tourney or bust. And that if there is no dancing, then Groce's seat should be red-hot.

 

[IlliiniLegacy]

Despite lots of nuances in posters' philosophies of what the program should be in the future or even what it is at this very moment, there's a pretty solid consensus that next year should be tourney or bust. And that if there is no dancing, then Groce's seat should be red-hot.

This ^^^^^

 

[ole 99]

Despite lots of nuances in posters' philosophies of what the program should be in the future or even what it is at this very moment, there's a pretty solid consensus that next year should be tourney or bust. And that if there is no dancing, then Groce's seat should be red-hot.

Assuming Groce is back for next year, which seems as good of an assumption as any, the bar is at least to be in the tournament next year. It may just be me, but I'd like to think we should be more than just a participant in the tournament. I honestly don't think making the tournament is all that high a bar. If we are a bubble team that makes it in, I'm not super happy. That being said, it looks bad to fire a coach once you make the tournament.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Assuming Groce is back for next year, which seems as good of an assumption as any, the bar is at least to be in the tournament next year. It may just be me, but I'd like to think we should be more than just a participant in the tournament. I honestly don't think making the tournament is all that high a bar. If we are a bubble team that makes it in, I'm not super happy. That being said, it looks bad to fire a coach once you make the tournament.

Sure, the bar needs to be making the tournament plus signing a 2017 class that puts us back on track towards moving up in the B1G pecking order.

 

[IntenselyOrange]

Sure, the bar needs to be making the tournament plus signing a 2017 class that puts us back on track towards moving up in the B1G pecking order.

I'd be interested to hear what you think this is. I think we would all love a super-class that is top 10 nationally. But I do not think that is necessary. For me, a high level PG who we can expect to contribute immediately (not necessarily start or dominate) and a big who is of a similar profile would be sufficient.

People are going to be demanding Williams and Tillmon, and although that would be great, I don't think it needs to be those particular recruits.

I'm also interested in how we make the tourney. Do we barely make it or are we playing for a seed during the last month? Are we being completely carried by Hill and Nunn (and perhaps Abrams and Thorne), or do we have younger guys as crucial contributors? I personally need to see JCL and Finke make a big jump and either Jordan or Williams become a big contributor. And some evidence of competence from our Freshman would be great, but I never expect much from freshmen. The reason that it can't just be a Nunn and Hill show is that it is the success of the younger guys that will be predictive of sustained success for the program.

 

[IlliniOX08]

I'd be interested to hear what you think this is. I think we would all love a super-class that is top 10 nationally. But I do not think that is necessary. For me, a high level PG who we can expect to contribute immediately (not necessarily start or dominate) and a big who is of a similar profile would be sufficient.

People are going to be demanding Williams and Tillmon, and although that would be great, I don't think it needs to be those particular recruits.

I'm also interested in how we make the tourney. Do we barely make it or are we playing for a seed during the last month? Are we being completely carried by Hill and Nunn (and perhaps Abrams and Thorne), or do we have younger guys as crucial contributors? I personally need to see JCL and Finke make a big jump and either Jordan or Williams become a big contributor. And some evidence of competence from our Freshman would be great, but I never expect much from freshmen. The reason that it can't just be a Nunn and Hill show is that it is the success of the younger guys that will be predictive of sustained success for the program.

Don't want to speak on the OP's behalf, but for me it is a class that has upper level B1G players. It cannot be an empty class that ended up being the downfall of Weber's time here. JG has to continue to stack above average to excellent recruiting classes.

More specifically for 2017, I don't think that Tilmon is a make or break. I do think Williams, given he's from Peoria and obviously being Frankie's kid will be a big barometer for where Groce stands. JG shouldn't be judged off one recruit, but that's a big one.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I'd be interested to hear what you think this is. I think we would all love a super-class that is top 10 nationally. But I do not think that is necessary. For me, a high level PG who we can expect to contribute immediately (not necessarily start or dominate) and a big who is of a similar profile would be sufficient.

People are going to be demanding Williams and Tillmon, and although that would be great, I don't think it needs to be those particular recruits.

I'm also interested in how we make the tourney. Do we barely make it or are we playing for a seed during the last month? Are we being completely carried by Hill and Nunn (and perhaps Abrams and Thorne), or do we have younger guys as crucial contributors? I personally need to see JCL and Finke make a big jump and either Jordan or Williams become a big contributor. And some evidence of competence from our Freshman would be great, but I never expect much from freshmen. The reason that it can't just be a Nunn and Hill show is that it is the success of the younger guys that will be predictive of sustained success for the program.

Yeah, I'd like to see a sophomore leap. Malcolm and Nunn were already solid players their freshmen seasons, and you can argue their soph leaps can largely be contributed to increase in minutes. Excluding those two, have we seen one yet?

Player development is HUGE, and we just haven't had much of that besides Rayvonte learning to shoot 3's at a decent clip (even though I groaned at 85% of his 3PA because he was far better going to the hole). Groce can't be a long term candidate if players don't improve under him - recruits don't like that, fans don't like that, and opposing coaches love that.

 

[IntenselyOrange]

Don't want to speak on the OP's behalf, but for me it is a class that has upper level B1G players. It cannot be an empty class that ended up being the downfall of Weber's time here. JG has to continue to stack above average to excellent recruiting classes.

More specifically for 2017, I don't think that Tilmon is a make or break. I do think Williams, given he's from Peoria and obviously being Frankie's kid will be a big barometer for where Groce stands. JG shouldn't be judged off one recruit, but that's a big one.

Williams is a barometer of sorts, but even on him, I think our chances are well below 50%. There will be a bunch of teams in on him. But, it is important to Groce that he is from Peoria. Much has been made about the lack of talent in Peoria contributing to our downfall. If that's the case, we have to find a way to get the players from that town when they appear.

 

[IntenselyOrange]

Yeah, I'd like to see a sophomore leap. Malcolm and Nunn were already solid players their freshmen seasons, and you can argue their soph leaps can largely be contributed to increase in minutes. Excluding those two, have we seen one yet?

Player development is HUGE, and we just haven't had much of that besides Rayvonte learning to shoot 3's at a decent clip (even though I groaned at 85% of his 3PA because he was far better going to the hole). Groce can't be a long term candidate if players don't improve under him - recruits don't like that, fans don't like that, and opposing coaches love that.

I think we've seen some development. Although it has been less than I would like, it's important to remember how low the starting point was for some of our players (Tate and Morgan come to mind). And although I remain skeptical of Groce's long-term potential, I think development is really the place where the roster situation he was given has presented the biggest problems. You need competition in order to improve. You need to experience that competition in practice. With a thin and top-heavy roster, it's difficult for our best players to get the work they need. The injuries further complicate this. Realistically, who is making Nunn and Hill work at practice? Our guys, for most of the past 4 years have only been able to experience B1G-caliber competition in games. That's not good enough.

 

[PerennIaLL]

I might be wrong, but I think most here feel that he should have no seat if we don't make the tournament next year. A hot seat might be a bit of an understatement. After all, most of his current supporters keep pointing to the hot bed of talent that we have sitting at the end of our bench, so I guess that they should agree he should be gone if he doesn't make it with all that talent back? Of course it will still depend on us having an injury free season so that he can be properly judged...

I hope the roster is full and there are no injuries so we can properly judge JG. Even with the injured players, I think we are a mediocre bubble team at best this year. But there is some talent to work with in the future. Now let's see if it can be developed and schemed to win consistently.

If there's talent and they are healthy, then there are no excuses.

 

[ChiTownJH]

Man, I hope they do not fire Groce. I believe in what he has been doing. He's finally getting that dynamic PG to push his system for next year. This year has been bumpy with all these injuries.

Thing is, my nephew (a Chicago HS coach) informed me this past weekend, that their is a player that WILL TRANSFER, if Groce gets fired (and no I'm not going to mention his name). My nephew got this info from the player's brother. I ask my nephew, were their any other players that may transfer and he said, as far as he knows, none at this time.

 

[PaytonHighstep]

Man, I hope they do not fire Groce. I believe in what he has been doing. He's finally getting that dynamic PG to push his system for next year. This year has been bumpy with all these injuries.

Thing is, my nephew (a Chicago HS coach) informed me this past weekend, that their is a player that WILL TRANSFER, if Groce gets fired (and no I'm not going to mention his name). My nephew got this info from the player's brother. I ask my nephew, were their any other players that may transfer and he said, as far as he knows, none at this time.

If accurate, this sucks to hear, BUT decisions on firing head coaches can't be made because of transfer rumors. Transfers happen in college basketball every year, it's part of the fabric of college basketball now more than ever.

Making a change at head coach should only happen, if the AD believes they can hire a better coach. Since, Illinois doesn't currently have an AD, I believe Groce is safe, IMO.

 

[IlliniJim20]

Man, I hope they do not fire Groce. I believe in what he has been doing. He's finally getting that dynamic PG to push his system for next year. This year has been bumpy with all these injuries.

Thing is, my nephew (a Chicago HS coach) informed me this past weekend, that their is a player that WILL TRANSFER, if Groce gets fired (and no I'm not going to mention his name). My nephew got this info from the player's brother. I ask my nephew, were their any other players that may transfer and he said, as far as he knows, none at this time.

IMO One player cannot determine whether to retain or dismiss Groce. I am not doubting you or your nephew, but even then, every player SHOULD give the new coach a chance.

Barring a complete meltdown, I am of the opinion he will be retained, UNLESS or new ad has a solid to home run hire lined up. Even if Groce is retained, and has a solid 2017 class, that class cannot hold the decision hostage either. His performance next year should dictate his future.

Just my two cents.

 

[ChiTownJH]

IMO One player cannot determine whether to retain or dismiss Groce. I am not doubting you or your nephew, but even then, every player SHOULD give the new coach a chance.

Barring a complete meltdown, I am of the opinion he will be retained, UNLESS or new ad has a solid to home run hire lined up. Even if Groce is retained, and has a solid 2017 class, that class cannot hold the decision hostage either. His performance next year should dictate his future.

Just my two cents.

We shall see.

 

[DudeAbides]

Man, I hope they do not fire Groce. I believe in what he has been doing. He's finally getting that dynamic PG to push his system for next year. This year has been bumpy with all these injuries.

Thing is, my nephew (a Chicago HS coach) informed me this past weekend, that their is a player that WILL TRANSFER, if Groce gets fired (and no I'm not going to mention his name). My nephew got this info from the player's brother. I ask my nephew, were their any other players that may transfer and he said, as far as he knows, none at this time.

Kids say that kind of stuff all the time. If we do move on from Groce, the kids will see who the new coach is and make a decision then. To say they are going to transfer now is just talk.

 

[Sal Iacuzzo]

Absolutely correct. We are staring a 4-5 win Big Ten season in the face. Illinois is 1-4, soon to be 1-5 in conference and in 12th place in the Big Ten. It's fairly shocking the way this fan base has accepted mediocrity or worse. We used to have high expectations, even under Weber, and that's what got him fired. Weber never had a season this bad. We are 116th on Kenpom. Weber's worst was 82, which resulted in his ouster.

Perhaps the new AD will be sympathetic due to the injury excuse, or maybe he just wont have time to make an informed decision before the carousel starts up, the way this search is going. But if Illinois finishes something like 12-19 (4-14), there is absolutely nothing wrong with going in a new direction. Saying so shouldn't be considered blasphemy.

Bryce Drew is sitting out there. He has won his league the 3 of the last 4 years, and made the NCAAs 2 out of the last 3 years. Perhaps hiring a coach with a record of success at his prior job would be a good idea this time around.

I really hope we get Drew before someone else does, he probably won't be available next year

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I'd be interested to hear what you think this is. I think we would all love a super-class that is top 10 nationally. But I do not think that is necessary. For me, a high level PG who we can expect to contribute immediately (not necessarily start or dominate) and a big who is of a similar profile would be sufficient.

People are going to be demanding Williams and Tillmon, and although that would be great, I don't think it needs to be those particular recruits.

I'm also interested in how we make the tourney. Do we barely make it or are we playing for a seed during the last month? Are we being completely carried by Hill and Nunn (and perhaps Abrams and Thorne), or do we have younger guys as crucial contributors? I personally need to see JCL and Finke make a big jump and either Jordan or Williams become a big contributor. And some evidence of competence from our Freshman would be great, but I never expect much from freshmen. The reason that it can't just be a Nunn and Hill show is that it is the success of the younger guys that will be predictive of sustained success for the program.

I don't know that there's a specific metric to go by, but I'd say it needs to be something on the order of the 2015 class at least, i..e a couple of top 100 prospects. Something to show recruiting is going to be better going forward. My point really is that next year is set up to be Groce's best team, assuming he can get it to the tournament then the other remaining question is can he keep that arrow pointing upwards? We'll lose Nunn, Abrams, Hill, Morgan and Tate. So that level of talent needs to be in the 2017 class, and hopefully an improvement on it. There's a nice core with the freshmen, need to add to it to keep things going forward.