John Groce at Illinois

[Cubby Blue]

I don't know that there's a specific metric to go by, but I'd say it needs to be something on the order of the 2015 class at least, i..e a couple of top 100 prospects. Something to show recruiting is going to be better going forward. My point really is that next year is set up to be Groce's best team, assuming he can get it to the tournament then the other remaining question is can he keep that arrow pointing upwards? We'll lose Nunn, Abrams, Hill, Morgan and Tate. So that level of talent needs to be in the 2017 class, and hopefully an improvement on it. There's a nice core with the freshmen, need to add to it to keep things going forward.

So, Pickett, Tillmon, Goodwin and Williams will do.

 

[zpfled]

Bryce Drew is an interesting candidate. He'd probably bring the Rev with him, which would be cool.

As much as I want Groce to succeed and stay on, Drew is the first replacement that has been suggested that I would be interested in.

 

[Calvin]

So, Pickett, Tillmon, Goodwin and Williams will do.

That would change things, for sure

 

[Foggy Notion]

Yeah, I'd like to see a sophomore leap. Malcolm and Nunn were already solid players their freshmen seasons, and you can argue their soph leaps can largely be contributed to increase in minutes. Excluding those two, have we seen one yet?

Player development is HUGE, and we just haven't had much of that besides Rayvonte learning to shoot 3's at a decent clip (even though I groaned at 85% of his 3PA because he was far better going to the hole). Groce can't be a long term candidate if players don't improve under him - recruits don't like that, fans don't like that, and opposing coaches love that.

There just aren't that many other candidates. Nunn and Hill were in Groce's first recruiting class, and they are only juniors. Black is injured as a sophomore, and finke redshirted. That leaves Mav, Tate, and Colbert as the only other Groce-recruited players who we have seen as sophomores, all of whom were in his first recruiting class that he had to cobble together in a hurry.

 

[Ulysses Everett McGill]

I really hope we get Drew before someone else does, he probably won't be available next year

Not getting the pining for Bryce Drew. Can someone explain why a new AD would consider firing Groce and replace him with Drew? Not seeing much of a "splash" there.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

So, Pickett, Tillmon, Goodwin and Williams will do.

:thumb:

 

[HeartofaChampion]

So, Pickett, Tillmon, Goodwin and Williams will do.

Three top 100 recruits at positions of need would do the trick: a 1, a 5 and one other.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

Bryce Drew is an interesting candidate. He'd probably bring the Rev with him, which would be cool.

As much as I want Groce to succeed and stay on, Drew is the first replacement that has been suggested that I would be interested in.

Making Dee an assistant in the offseason seems like a no-brainer.

 

[Klondike]

Not getting the pining for Bryce Drew. Can someone explain why a new AD would consider firing Groce and replace him with Drew? Not seeing much of a "splash" there.

He's had more success at Valpo than the current guy it would be a mistake to fire did at Ohio.

Valpo is currently #20 on Kenpom. The best Groce team at Ohio was #51. The current Groce Illini team is #117.

To have Valparaiso in the Kenpom top 20 is a pretty impressive coaching job.

 

[aztillini]

Its easy to give Groce a pass due to injuries. But, injuries cannot account (entirely) for the fact that his teams seem to not know what an assist is, nearly 2/3 of shots taken in Nebraska game are from 3 point range (most coming from individual creation vs. penetrate and kick out), his teams have been consistently weak on the boards and show inconsistency in intensity you have to wonder if coaching is not a major contributing factor.

The players on this roster are his and next year's class is thin at best. Has not demonstrated the ability to recruit at a high enough level to be competitive in the conference. Each year seems to be just a little bit worse.

 

[Klondike]

Its easy to give Groce a pass due to injuries. But, injuries cannot account (entirely) for the fact that his teams seem to not know what an assist is, nearly 2/3 of shots taken in Nebraska game are from 3 point range (most coming from individual creation vs. penetrate and kick out), his teams have been consistently weak on the boards and show inconsistency in intensity you have to wonder if coaching is not a major contributing factor.

Assist rate has been consistently bad since Coach Groce took over at Illinois.

2013: 340th in the country
2014: 326th
2015: 252nd

 

[zpfled]

Not getting the pining for Bryce Drew. Can someone explain why a new AD would consider firing Groce and replace him with Drew? Not seeing much of a "splash" there.

I don't think we're going to get a 'splash' hire no matter what.

Drew seems to be a consistent conference winner, comes from a strong coaching family, former NBA player.

Again, I'm not looking to replace Groce yet, but if we did, I would be interested in Drew.

 

[zpfled]

The players on this roster are his and next year's class is thin at best. Has not demonstrated the ability to recruit at a high enough level to be competitive in the conference. Each year seems to be just a little bit worse.

Really? I think his recruiting is fine. He's building a sustainable team. Getting players who can be legit stars as upperclassmen.

Nunn and Hill are a fantastic tandem, and will likely be even better next year. Then when they graduate, we'll have JCL and Jordan and Williams Finke and Black as upperclassmen. That's a dangerous team, especially with a legit sophomore PG running the offense.

I just want to have a coach who can field a team led by skilled, battle-tested upperclassmen every year. Impact freshmen are a bonus, but I'm not ever counting on them to be a consistent presence at IL.

Our team is being built the right way--developing good players into very good players, with a few stars in the mix.

There are two ways to win in college basketball. Play with NBA talent, or play with seniors who have played together for 4 years. The last senior-led team we had here, we went to the tournament.

 

[zpfled]

1.) I don't know what you're deifnition of impact Freshmen are, but I think most good teams have impact Freshmen. You could argue we have two right now.

2.) Hill and Nunn are very good players, but they aren't stars.

3.) I think there are still so many question marks with our roster and its a bit frightening.

1. If you count JCL and Finke as impact freshmen, then yes, I agree. We should have some of those. I was thinking more along the lines of McDAA's. Freshmen who come in ready to start. I don't think you need those. Maybe once in a great while, but you don't need them consistently.

2. They are good candidates to be all-conference, which is what I think of when I think stars. "Stars" is a term, though, that means different things to different people, so whatever. But All-Conference is what I'm talking about. First- or Second-Team, specifically.

3. You're right, we still do. But those questions are getting answered. We need to shore up our bigs situation. We need to recruit PGs more consistently. But our roster is finally balancing our after years of empty classes and transfer fill-ins.

 

[IlliniOX08]

1. If you count JCL and Finke as impact freshmen, then yes, I agree. We should have some of those. I was thinking more along the lines of McDAA's. Freshmen who come in ready to start. I don't think you need those. Maybe once in a great while, but you don't need them consistently.

2. They are good candidates to be all-conference, which is what I think of when I think stars. "Stars" is a term, though, that means different things to different people, so whatever. But All-Conference is what I'm talking about. First- or Second-Team, specifically.

3. You're right, we still do. But those questions are getting answered. We need to shore up our bigs situation. We need to recruit PGs more consistently. But our roster is finally balancing our after years of empty classes and transfer fill-ins.

I don't necessarily see it balancing yet with the exception of Lucas coming on board next year. The team still needs impact depth at PG. The roster is lacking in B1G caliber front court players. I see a ton of wings on this team that are all dependent on the three to be effective. A lot of the dependence on the three is due to the lack of creativity and front-court players.

Hill and Nunn are good players.. I'd hesitate to call them "stars". Stars should be winning a lot more games. I think they both have star potential, but haven't taken that leap yet. Roster balance and injuries likely a lot to do with that also.

 

[aztillini]

They (Hill and Nunn) are talented but not well coached. The team does not share the ball effectively, seems afraid to rebound, drifts from time to time and are not physical. You need a physical team to compete at this level. Finke is a good role player as a 4 but no help on the boards. Morgan has not developed into anything but an ok off the bench player.

I agree that the Gonzaga approach can work but you still have to know how to play team ball and have all the positions filled with the proper types of players.

Groce seems like a nice guy but the team has not improved each year he has been there and seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Even the recruiting class for next year is not impressive and certainly not physical.

 

[alexander58]

They (Hill and Nunn) are talented but not well coached. The team does not share the ball effectively, seems afraid to rebound, drifts from time to time and are not physical. You need a physical team to compete at this level. Finke is a good role player as a 4 but no help on the boards. Morgan has not developed into anything but an ok off the bench player.

I agree that the Gonzaga approach can work but you still have to know how to play team ball and have all the positions filled with the proper types of players.

Groce seems like a nice guy but the team has not improved each year he has been there and seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Even the recruiting class for next year is not impressive and certainly not physical.

The ability to make players more physical can make a big difference. Izzo has really made a career out of it. Sure, he gets talented players, but I believe it's the toughness they develop that separates them from most programs. Illinois is a finesse team with important parts missing (PG), which makes it tough to win.

 

[Bomb Squad 217]

If we weren't riddled with injuries this year, this thread wouldn't even exist.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I hope the roster is full and there are no injuries so we can properly judge JG. Even with the injured players, I think we are a mediocre bubble team at best this year. But there is some talent to work with in the future. Now let's see if it can be developed and schemed to win consistently.

If there's talent and they are healthy, then there are no excuses.

I disagree with this. If there's no talent, THAT IS COACH'S FAULT. Not healthy? Sure, you can use that as an excuse (because that's sure what half of IL has defected to), but at some point, you need to adjust. Losing DP, TA all before the season even started aren't excuses at this point, we knew we wouldn't have them. Hell, we even had time to replace TA with Khalid he was injured so early. MT and LB hurt, but it's time for guys to step up or the scheme to adjust instead of us continuing to point to the end of the bench.

Not getting the pining for Bryce Drew. Can someone explain why a new AD would consider firing Groce and replace him with Drew? Not seeing much of a "splash" there.

Sure, Drew has more tournament appearances at Valpo than we have at Illinois in the last three years, and has won the conference every year but one he's been at Valpo, and was 4th the other year.

They (Hill and Nunn) are talented but not well coached. The team does not share the ball effectively, seems afraid to rebound, drifts from time to time and are not physical. You need a physical team to compete at this level. Finke is a good role player as a 4 but no help on the boards. Morgan has not developed into anything but an ok off the bench player.

I agree that the Gonzaga approach can work but you still have to know how to play team ball and have all the positions filled with the proper types of players.

Groce seems like a nice guy but the team has not improved each year he has been there and seems to be moving in the opposite direction. Even the recruiting class for next year is not impressive and certainly not physical.

This

 

[Obelix]

1.) I don't know what you're definition of impact Freshmen are, but I think most good teams have impact Freshmen. You could argue we have two right now.

2.) Hill and Nunn are very good players, but they aren't stars.

3.) I think there are still so many question marks with our roster and its a bit frightening.

All very good points.

In addition, recruiting balance has been less than fine. We have not recruited a top-100 HS PG or C/post in 4 years, and our B1G PG and C/post play has been consistently a big problem.

 

[Adnarel]

I might be wrong, but I think most here feel that he should have no seat if we don't make the tournament next year. A hot seat might be a bit of an understatement.

I think what's holding lots of people back (including yours truly) is the genuinely awful injury luck for this year and moreover the lack of stability in the University's administration. Firing Groce after a no-tourney year next year is going to make this school look really bad in the eyes of a smart prospective hire, and sends a message that your margin for error as a coach at the University of Illinois is razor-thin. Zook, Weber, and Beckman obviously strayed far out of what is acceptable for a B1G title-caliber coach (especially Beckman). But Groce? His greatest (but not his only) sins are related to recruiting. We finally have our 1, but now we're dearly missing a 5, as the Mike Thorne plan went bust through no fault of Groce's own. But the failure to land a 1 and a 5 in a timely manner is a Big Deal™.

And yes, he's highly questionable on X's and O's. Yet the Purdue game demonstrated that he does have it in him. He's a young coach figuring it out, I feel. He needs at least 1 full season with a roster that's healthy and filled at all positions. That's theoretically next season. If we don't dance next year due to fluke-y reasons, or are very close, I'd advocate for 2017-2018 being the hot seat year. If we don't dance because we just sucked badly, then that's a different matter, and it would much more strongly implicate the HC himself. Then I'd reluctantly relinquish my last ties to the Groce bandwagon.

 

[dsboyce]

Yeah, I'd like to see a sophomore leap. Malcolm and Nunn were already solid players their freshmen seasons, and you can argue their soph leaps can largely be contributed to increase in minutes. Excluding those two, have we seen one yet?

Player development is HUGE, and we just haven't had much of that besides Rayvonte learning to shoot 3's at a decent clip (even though I groaned at 85% of his 3PA because he was far better going to the hole). Groce can't be a long term candidate if players don't improve under him - recruits don't like that, fans don't like that, and opposing coaches love that.

I keep seeing people say that there is no player development under Groce. Those people either don't understand what they are looking at or are being dishonest.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I keep seeing people say that there is no player development under Groce. Those people either don't understand what they are looking at or are being dishonest.

Go ahead and show me what development we've seen that is substantial? Maybe guys are getting better at things they could already do, but what have any of our players added? I already mentioned Rayvonte Rice learning to shoot the 3, so what do you have besides that?

 

[Deleted member 10676]

If we weren't riddled with injuries this year, this thread wouldn't even exist.

true dat.

 

[Cubby Blue]

Go ahead and show me what development we've seen that is substantial? Maybe guys are getting better at things they could already do, but what have any of our players added? I already mentioned Rayvonte Rice learning to shoot the 3, so what do you have besides that?

Did Malcolm have the step back move before he arrived? NO. The coaching staff knew he needed a go to move because he would be one on one with the opposing teams best defensive player. That is substantial.