Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (July-August 2016)

[Illiniguy13]

Whether or not Goodwin truly has the potential to be a PG in the NBA is immaterial. Same goes for whether or not he's as good as Marcus Smart. What matters is if he actually believes playing the 1 is his best route. FWIW, it's hard to argue that wouldn't be his best chance, and anyone who thinks Goodwin is simply going to accept his chances are slim and it isn't worth pursuing isn't thinking straight. It's easy to see how that alone could put us neck and neck with SLU.

 

[MrOizo]

Goodwin will not make The League as a shooting guard. It's that simple.

OK, I'll hedge a bit. If he markedly improves his outside shot and range, in concert with improving his athleticism, he has a shot. But IBIWISI.

But would he make the league as a PG? I think SG is more likely but that's based on very little knowledge on my part.

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[TCTORNADO]

I'll be surprised if Terrence Lewis commits to Iowa State this weekend.

 

[Joel Goodson]

But would he make the league as a PG? I think SG is more likely but that's based on very little knowledge on my part.

OK, this is JMO, and based on 4 years of progression: as a SG, 5-20%; as a PG, 25-75%. Obviously, the PG range is huge, as there's no telling how he'll advance. Really, the low side could be 0% for both positions, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Jeffcobrad]

Hmm. Can't say I agree with that. He's not likely starting as a true freshman over a third-year JCL.

Groce runs a 3 guard offense. Goodwin will be the 3rd guard. JCL is considered the shooting guard that they will sit on the wings when they run their ball screen offense. Goodwin is a guard that they can pitch to and have the 4 man come and ball screen for. Effective when you have the right personel.

 

[Joel Goodson]

Groce runs a 3 guard offense. Goodwin will be the 3rd guard. JCL is considered the shooting guard that they will sit on the wings when they run their ball screen offense. Goodwin is a guard that they can pitch to and have the 4 man come and ball screen for. Effective when you have the right personel.

Right.

Compare that to what he gets at SLU: runs the show, ball in his hands a ton, PG, virtually unlimited minutes. Even the most jaded Illini fans should see the appeal.

At Illinois there's going to be serious competition for playing time (35 mpg @ SLU vs 25 mpg at Illinois) and he won't be playing PG.

Think Goodwin is looking at his college stint as an audition for the NBA. Other aspects are secondary.

 

[MrOizo]

OK, this is JMO, and based on 4 years of progression: as a SG, 5-20%; as a PG, 25-75%. Obviously, the PG range is huge, as there's no telling how he'll advance. Really, the low side could be 0% for both positions, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Thanks, appreciate your take. Helping me to be less confident. Always good to be pleasantly surprised and prepared for the worst. Doesn't help much but still...

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[UCantHideYer]

Mr Goodwin is a baller and a mismatch that any team will want to get playing time for. If he really has NBA aspirations as a PG, he has to believe he would be able to outshine our PGs and get a shot at it here. If he shows he can thrive at PG, wouldn't we give him close to the same chance as SLU would?

 

[roz77]

Right.



Compare that to what he gets at SLU: runs the show, ball in his hands a ton, PG, virtually unlimited minutes. Even the most jaded Illini fans should see the appeal.



At Illinois there's going to be serious competition for playing time (35 mpg @ SLU vs 25 mpg at Illinois) and he won't be playing PG.



Think Goodwin is looking at his college stint as an audition for the NBA. Other aspects are secondary.

I swear, whenever this argument seems like it should swing in our favor and Illinois would offer more playing time at the right position, the recruit still goes to the school that's crowded. Now when we're the crowded school, the recruit is actually going to go to the lesser school with more playing time.


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[Jeffcobrad]

Guys the NBA is not in the business of letting players train on the job. You don't just get to that level in a few years. Jordan can play in the league without making a switch. This is crazy talk. Bottom line is if he wants to be the man for 8,000 fans on game night or if he wants to play for 17,000 fans and an Illini nation watching on TV. His choice.

 

[Joel Goodson]

I swear, whenever this argument seems like it should swing in our favor and Illinois would offer more playing time at the right position, the recruit still goes to the school that's crowded. Now when we're the crowded school, the recruit is actually going to go to the lesser school with more playing time.

Playing time is part of the equation, but it is not the primary driver (as I've explained repeatedly).

 

[UofIChE06]

Whether or not Goodwin truly has the potential to be a PG in the NBA is immaterial. Same goes for whether or not he's as good as Marcus Smart. What matters is if he actually believes playing the 1 is his best route. FWIW, it's hard to argue that wouldn't be his best chance, and anyone who thinks Goodwin is simply going to accept his chances are slim and it isn't worth pursuing isn't thinking straight. It's easy to see how that alone could put us neck and neck with SLU.

Let me preface this by saying I think Goodwin is a great player and would love to see him in the O&B.

Getting that out of the way the only one that wouldn't be thinking straight is Goodwin. I would estimate his chances of making the NBA are under 5% and that will not be affected by his college choice. He simply does not have the measurables or abilities to find a spot at that level. Being a person that wills his team to winning doesn't matter much to NBA GMs. They care about potential in bigs and top tier attributes from guards. By that I mean elite quickness, tremendous outside shooting, or elite handles if not a combination of the above. The only thing Goodwin has to be a PG in the league is optimal height.

He will be an excellent college player, has a tremendous compete level, but lacks the qualities of an NBA player.

 

[SescIllini]

Teams like SLU make that pitch to players all the time. "You will be the man, ...playing time". How did this work for us when we recruited Illinois McDonald AA the last 10-15 years. If Goodwin wants to be a player at the next level he won't be afraid of going against players at Illinois for playing time. If hiring a AAU coach sways him that much than it best we land a Lewis, Eastern, or Smith.

 

[Joel Goodson]

Let me preface this by saying I think Goodwin is a great player and would love to see him in the O&B.

Getting that out of the way the only one that wouldn't be thinking straight is Goodwin. I would estimate his chances of making the NBA are under 5% and that will not be affected by his college choice. He simply does not have the measurables or abilities to find a spot at that level. Being a person that wills his team to winning doesn't matter much to NBA GMs. They care about potential in bigs and top tier attributes from guards. By that I mean elite quickness, tremendous outside shooting, or elite handles if not a combination of the above. The only thing Goodwin has to be a PG in the league is optimal height.

He will be an excellent college player, has a tremendous compete level, but lacks the qualities of an NBA player.

Spot on. His path to the NBA if he continues in his current mode is very slim. OTOH, if he morphs into a dominating PG, his chances increase tremendously. Obviously, no guarantee he can do it. But I think that's his mindset.

Having a great college career, college experience, playing for a VG to excellent team, under the big spotlight probably doesn't matter compared to making the league.

 

[MrOizo]

I swear, whenever this argument seems like it should swing in our favor and Illinois would offer more playing time at the right position, the recruit still goes to the school that's crowded. Now when we're the crowded school, the recruit is actually going to go to the lesser school with more playing time.


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This is where the difference maker is often the coach. Groce earning his paycheck time. Sadly, in guessing this is the one and only thing Travis Ford has elite skills at: whispering sweet nothings to college recruits.

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[Joel Goodson]

Teams like SLU make that pitch to players all the time. "You will be the man, ...playing time". How did this work for us when we recruited Illinois McDonald AA the last 10-15 years. If Goodwin wants to be a player at the next level he won't be afraid of going against players at Illinois for playing time. If hiring a AAU coach sways him that much than it best we land a Lewis, Eastern, or Smith.

Oy! It's all about having the keys, having the ball, playing PG from the get go.

 

[MrOizo]

Oy! It's all about having the keys, having the ball, playing PG from the get go.

Still, Groce should be able to counter the logic. Goodwin will not be the only PG at SLU and others will get tick for sure. There are small PGs he will play against regularly that he would struggle to defend (and vice versa). If Illinois doesn't get Frazier, our cupboard is thin at PG. Even if we get Frazier there's room, plus learning from Dee where he needs to grow the most - improving handle, shot, vision, etc.

Being mediocre at PG but getting the keys anyway isn't the path to becoming an NBA PG. Perhaps Groce can chart a path where there are plenty of opportunities for jgood to develop those skills and move our more natural PGs off guard for stretches, as well as giving them rest while Goodwin plays that role. If he can't earn that at Illinois, no amount of PG playing time would have gotten him to the NBA. It's a false hope, period.

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[Illiniguy13]

Let me preface this by saying I think Goodwin is a great player and would love to see him in the O&B.

Getting that out of the way the only one that wouldn't be thinking straight is Goodwin. I would estimate his chances of making the NBA are under 5% and that will not be affected by his college choice. He simply does not have the measurables or abilities to find a spot at that level. Being a person that wills his team to winning doesn't matter much to NBA GMs. They care about potential in bigs and top tier attributes from guards. By that I mean elite quickness, tremendous outside shooting, or elite handles if not a combination of the above. The only thing Goodwin has to be a PG in the league is optimal height.

He will be an excellent college player, has a tremendous compete level, but lacks the qualities of an NBA player.

Valid points but at this point in time it's up in the air regardless. And btw, try pitching that to Goodwin and lemme know how that works out

 

[MrOizo]

Guys the NBA is not in the business of letting players train on the job. You don't just get to that level in a few years. Jordan can play in the league without making a switch. This is crazy talk. Bottom line is if he wants to be the man for 8,000 fans on game night or if he wants to play for 17,000 fans and an Illini nation watching on TV. His choice.

Does SLU get 8,000? Does the competition they play against tell the NBA peeps what they need to know about how he would play at the next level? I tend to think that Goodwin establishing himself as a Big Ten level difference maker comes first, getting attention like Malcolm Hill has done. Then, Goodwin can start to demonstrate how his game is rounding into that of a lead guard, starting to answer the question of where he projects at the next level. Get the attention of the nation first for what makes you special, while working on becoming a PG.

I think of Evan Turner, who in HS was not a lead guard. He worked his way to that at tOSU despite the talent they had. That's what a successful transition to NBA PG looks like.

 

[Firet92]

Guys the NBA is not in the business of letting players train on the job. You don't just get to that level in a few years. Jordan can play in the league without making a switch. This is crazy talk. Bottom line is if he wants to be the man for 8,000 fans on game night or if he wants to play for 17,000 fans and an Illini nation watching on TV. His choice.

To further your point, because I find it hilariously true:

27. Illinois 13 165,409 12,723
77. Saint Louis 18 121,633 6,757

Taken from NCAA page. Almost twice the attendance, with an abysmal team to boot.

 

[MrOizo]

Basically, we all hope Goodwin avoids getting hustled by an elite-level hustler.

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[Deleted member 10676]

Does SLU get 8,000? Does the competition they play against tell the NBA peeps what they need to know about how he would play at the next level? I tend to think that Goodwin establishing himself as a Big Ten level difference maker comes first, getting attention like Malcolm Hill has done. Then, Goodwin can start to demonstrate how his game is rounding into that of a lead guard, starting to answer the question of where he projects at the next level. Get the attention of the nation first for what makes you special, while working on becoming a PG.

I think of Evan Turner, who in HS was not a lead guard. He worked his way to that at tOSU despite the talent they had. That's what a successful transition to NBA PG looks like.

If Weber State's competition level got Damian Lillard to the NBA, I'm sure SLU's competition could do it.
But a lot of people here are missing the point. It's not about size of venue's, making sense etc etc. He's chasing a dream and Ford is selling it to him and telling him he can do it. And right now it sounds like he's buying in. It's Goodwin's career and he's got to do what he thinks is best. Whether we agree with what he thinks doesn't matter much.

 

[MrOizo]

If Weber State's competition level got Damian Lillard to the NBA, I'm sure SLU's competition could do it.
But a lot of people here are missing the point. It's not about size of venue's, making sense etc etc. He's chasing a dream and Ford is selling it to him and telling him he can do it. And right now it sounds like he's buying in. It's Goodwin's career and he's got to do what he thinks is best. Whether we agree with what he thinks doesn't matter much.

You're right. This is big boy time for our coaches. Countering the dream being sold by Ford should be very doable. They have to step up and do the same or he should just go to SLU.

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[Foggy Notion]

Does SLU get 8,000? Does the competition they play against tell the NBA peeps what they need to know about how he would play at the next level? I tend to think that Goodwin establishing himself as a Big Ten level difference maker comes first, getting attention like Malcolm Hill has done. Then, Goodwin can start to demonstrate how his game is rounding into that of a lead guard, starting to answer the question of where he projects at the next level. Get the attention of the nation first for what makes you special, while working on becoming a PG.

I think of Evan Turner, who in HS was not a lead guard. He worked his way to that at tOSU despite the talent they had. That's what a successful transition to NBA PG looks like.

I tend to agree with this. If Goodwin's goal is making the NBA, the position he plays in college is less important than developing his skills, especially three-point shooting. Guys like Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook weren't considered point guards when they came out of college. The Sixers are even talking about making Ben Simmons a point guard, although his lack of shooting is a concern. Positions in the NBA are becoming more and more flexible, and versatility is increasingly valued. If Goodwin has a high basketball IQ and a knack for making plays, he can display those talents from other positions, and the NBA would notice.

 

[Deleted member 10676]

Found this on a Billiken board. Not good for us given Roy's history.

Can't embed the link, but the following was posted by Roy Schmidt of Bullseye:
"With no offense meant to anyone at SLU, I can assure folks the Billikens are HARDLY in the "driver's seat" for Jordan Goodwin."