2017 Coaching Carousel

[EJ33]

Comes down to what you prioritize more. Regular season success vs tournament success. I understand the hesitation to annoint someone a good coach because they get hot during tourney once. However, Kruger made the Elite 8 at one school and Final 4 at another. Thats no fluke and it is worth alot. If polled i guarantee 99% of this board would rather finish this season in Elite 8 vs top of Big Ten standings and one and done in tourney if given option.

Like it or not, success in college hoops= tourney success.

Sure, you can look at in those simple terms, but I looked at winning percentage, consistency, and conference championships.

Also, you need to adjust for the fact that Kruger didn't make the Final Four until his 12th year. Bennett is in year 10. Kruger never won a conference championship until year 16. Bennett has 2 IN THE ACC. Two years at 16-2 in the ACC is remarkable.

These things are subjective, but I think Bennett's year 10 resume is much stronger than Kruger's.

 

[MadSeason]

Sure, you can look at in those simple terms, but I looked at winning percentage, consistency, and conference championships.

Also, you need to adjust for the fact that Kruger didn't make the Final Four until his 12th year. Bennett is in year 10. Kruger never won a conference championship until year 16. Bennett has 2 IN THE ACC. Two years at 16-2 in the ACC is remarkable.

These things are subjective, but I think Bennett's year 10 resume is much stronger than Kruger's.

Kruger shared a conference title in his year 12 at Florida. This debate is probably very silly as if you remove the names off each of their resume's and said one of these 2 is your next coach I think most fans would consider them both grand slams which was my original point.

Gene Keady had a tremendous Regular Season record but only made 2 Elite 8's and 3 Sweet 16's. Id rather have Lou's record with multiple Final 4's

 

[EJ33]

Kruger shared a conference title in his year 12 at Florida. This debate is probably very silly as if you remove the names off each of their resume's and said one of these 2 is your next coach I think most fans would consider them both grand slams which was my original point.

Gene Keady had a tremendous Regular Season record but only made 2 Elite 8's and 3 Sweet 16's. Id rather have Lou's record with multiple Final 4's

Aren't all these debates silly?

 

[MadSeason]

Aren't all these debates silly?

Truer words never typed!

 

[sacraig]

Patience may be prudent.

Yes, Groce has had an unprecedented amount of bad luck. Last year I would have been (and was) in total agreement with you.

However, this year he has a team filled with his recruit (largely). Has a possible B1G POTY on the roster. Has no injury issues. Has a very experienced team laden with upperclassmen and underclassmen with above average playing time. In short, he has no excuse for how pedestrian the team has been this year. When you take what we've learned this year and assess the last few years based on that, you start to wonder if the injuries even really mattered.

If he can't make the team this year with this level of talent, then you have to wonder if even an uptick in recruiting will help that much or if he would basically be just a young Rick Barnes, bringing in uber talent and then doing absolutely nothing with it. Just making the tournament yearly isn't our goal as a program. We want to win championships. Making the tournament yearly again is a good start, but I am wondering if that is Groce's ceiling at this point.

If he can't make the tournament this year with this level of talent, then we need to move on.

 

[Tevo]

Sounds good on paper, but hardly a realistic scenario. It presents a lukewarm, stepping stone scenario, which IMO will not happen, i.e., fire a coach because we start making the NCAA consistently but fail to proceed further. I have serious doubts that Illinois will fire someone for lack of "further elevating the program" given where we are. I do not see it happening in the next 10 years.

You may be right. But are you saying, then, that we shouldn't hire the safe choice, if we aspire to having a top=-level team, because we'll be "stuck" with lukewarm for 10 years? It may be that Cuonzo is a 7 on a 10-point scale, who may never deliver level 9 or 10 results. Would you rather take a chance on an unknown guy who might turn out to be an 8 or 9 (whom you never need to replace), but may also turn out to be a 4 or 5? I can see either approach being appealing.

 

[krushdad]

The man who came very close to being hired a few years ago.......if he had wanted the job. Johnny Dawkins, had the support and was pushed very hard by several trustees. So I heard.

 

[FollowTisdale]

I know these beatdowns get old, but at the end of the day, Coach Groce has had an unbelievable run of bad luck in the last two years.

1) Tracy torn ACL
2) Aaron Jordan injury his senior year of high school (cost him some development
3) Darius Paul's meltdown at 3 AM in Europe
4) JCL's preseason injury his freshman season
5) Kendrick Nunn's injuries
6) Tracy's 2nd key injury, torn achilles (brutal injury for any athlete)
7) TJL's broken ankle which cost him his preseason
8) Kendrick getting kicked off the team
9) Thorne's injury
10) Leron's injury and subsequent meltdown
11) JCL's injury that cost him this off-season development

Am I missing anything? Damonte's torn ACL I didn't include b/c Damonte isn't here yet, but that will cost Damonte a year of development.

Now, Groce's recruiting hasn't been excellent, but next year's class added to what we have coming back will be the first time that Groce has a roster full of "his" guys. He'll have two real PG's, one (Frazier) who might be the scoring PG that he really wants, and an athletic big in Tilmon. Javon is described as a do-everything wing (hope that is really true) and Damonte is described as a combo guard with really good passing skills. If all four of these guys are also tough and play with an attitude and Groce can land a guy like Mark Smith from Edwardsville, we would be looking at a class that would have a similar level of potential as the starting five of our '05 team. Key words: Potential and Similar to go along with Kipper, Tejon, Leron, Jalen, Michael, Aaron and hopefully DJ. That team will struggle at times as they gain chemistry and experience, but would be competitive by the end of the year and on the cusp of a good run in 2018-19.

Patience may be prudent.

This is dumb. You know this is dumb. It's over, barring a miracle. Everyone (well... the vast majority) is done watching us have no clue on defense, an offense that when run to Groce's standards results in 16 foot jump shots (the worst shot in basketball), and a guy who refuses to play young (potential) talent.

Groce could have Jordan, Bird, Shaq, Bryant and Westbrook in the next class and we'd find a way to be 9-9 in the big ten and listening to stupid cliches in the post game about togetherness and practice all stars. It's year 5 and our fully healthy team of "his" guys (minus Abrams) is getting run out of the gym in away games and blowing the second half of all games.

The next recruiting class isn't even a world beater. It's a great big man (who don't really have a history of being team lifters outside of a few) and a bunch of outside the top 100 or, better yet, unranked talent. I love Damonte and Frazier as much as the next guy, but what in the last 5 years has made you think that not only will Groce coach these guys to play above their rankings (made by people who do this thing for a living), but also actually give them a chance at playing time early in the season?

 

[OrangeKrus28]

The man who came very close to being hired a few years ago.......if he had wanted the job. Johnny Dawkins, had the support and was pushed very hard by several trustees. So I heard.

Dawkins is a very average coach. He had 1 or 2 good years at Stanford and he was there for what, close to 7 or 8 years? I don't trust Dawkins to get the job done anymore than I'd trust Tommy Amaker to come back to the B10 and get the job done. They had their chances at high major programs and were largely unsuccessful and underachieving in those roles.

I think this is where Cuonzo Martin has set himself apart.

 

[krushdad]

Orangekrus28, I agree with you. Just sharing something from a few years ago. A real push to hire a minority coach....and I believe that will be the emphasis again, from the trustees.

 

[OrangeKrus28]

Just my opinion, but I don't believe you lose Tilmon if Groce leaves. I think Tilmon stays depending on who the new coach would be and whether Tilmon trusts the new coach. Even if Tilmon does leave, does anyone truly feel that John Groce would take a program full of youngsters far next season? If he is struggling to teach his veterans to play some defense, how much of a struggle will it be for a roster full of frosh/sophs with a few upperclassmen that don't play defense as it is? The veterans left over after Hill/Morgan/Abrams leave aren't world beaters on defense and would not be setting great examples for the youngsters.

Groce needs to finish off the season strong, get a win in the B10 tourney, make the NCAA's, and win 1-2 games for fans to turn around and consider supporting him again.

 

[BillMo]

I know these beatdowns get old, but at the end of the day, Coach Groce has had an unbelievable run of bad luck in the last two years.

1) Tracy torn ACL
2) Aaron Jordan injury his senior year of high school (cost him some development
3) Darius Paul's meltdown at 3 AM in Europe
4) JCL's preseason injury his freshman season
5) Kendrick Nunn's injuries
6) Tracy's 2nd key injury, torn achilles (brutal injury for any athlete)
7) TJL's broken ankle which cost him his preseason
8) Kendrick getting kicked off the team
9) Thorne's injury
10) Leron's injury and subsequent meltdown
11) JCL's injury that cost him this off-season development

Am I missing anything? Damonte's torn ACL I didn't include b/c Damonte isn't here yet, but that will cost Damonte a year of development.

Now, Groce's recruiting hasn't been excellent, but next year's class added to what we have coming back will be the first time that Groce has a roster full of "his" guys. He'll have two real PG's, one (Frazier) who might be the scoring PG that he really wants, and an athletic big in Tilmon. Javon is described as a do-everything wing (hope that is really true) and Damonte is described as a combo guard with really good passing skills. If all four of these guys are also tough and play with an attitude and Groce can land a guy like Mark Smith from Edwardsville, we would be looking at a class that would have a similar level of potential as the starting five of our '05 team. Key words: Potential and Similar to go along with Kipper, Tejon, Leron, Jalen, Michael, Aaron and hopefully DJ. That team will struggle at times as they gain chemistry and experience, but would be competitive by the end of the year and on the cusp of a good run in 2018-19.

Patience may be prudent.

I would agree with all of this, and you could add I all the transfers that didn't do anything other the take up space, do to missing out of top level recruits. BUT the question still is ,DO YOU THINK JG AND STAFF CAN COACH the players they will have. I am really starting to have my doubts on that and I really have tried hard to stick on the band wagon
Myself my pick would be Nagy if we part ways with JG, Seems to be a good coach, plus he has more ties to the Illini then about anyone else out there. I would almost bet he would try to get THE Rev on his staff if he got the job

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Orangekrus28, I agree with you. Just sharing something from a few years ago. A real push to hire a minority coach....and I believe that will be the emphasis again, from the trustees.

Hiring Lovie pretty much ended that. I'm sure there will still be a "push" but it's pretty toothless now.

 

[UrbanaIsTheShiz]

I know these beatdowns get old, but at the end of the day, Coach Groce has had an unbelievable run of bad luck in the last two years.

1) Tracy torn ACL
2) Aaron Jordan injury his senior year of high school (cost him some development
3) Darius Paul's meltdown at 3 AM in Europe
4) JCL's preseason injury his freshman season
5) Kendrick Nunn's injuries
6) Tracy's 2nd key injury, torn achilles (brutal injury for any athlete)
7) TJL's broken ankle which cost him his preseason
8) Kendrick getting kicked off the team
9) Thorne's injury
10) Leron's injury and subsequent meltdown
11) JCL's injury that cost him this off-season development

Am I missing anything? Damonte's torn ACL I didn't include b/c Damonte isn't here yet, but that will cost Damonte a year of development.

Now, Groce's recruiting hasn't been excellent, but next year's class added to what we have coming back will be the first time that Groce has a roster full of "his" guys. He'll have two real PG's, one (Frazier) who might be the scoring PG that he really wants, and an athletic big in Tilmon. Javon is described as a do-everything wing (hope that is really true) and Damonte is described as a combo guard with really good passing skills. If all four of these guys are also tough and play with an attitude and Groce can land a guy like Mark Smith from Edwardsville, we would be looking at a class that would have a similar level of potential as the starting five of our '05 team. Key words: Potential and Similar to go along with Kipper, Tejon, Leron, Jalen, Michael, Aaron and hopefully DJ. That team will struggle at times as they gain chemistry and experience, but would be competitive by the end of the year and on the cusp of a good run in 2018-19.

Patience may be prudent.

But will they self-organize?
There was something about the team Groce's first year that was way more than teh sum of its parts. After Brucepocalypse and Leonard leaving, noone thought adding adding Sam McLaurin was enough to get that team into the tourney. But they were way more than the sum of their parts. The past three years, I would not say that AT ALL. Sub patterns seem random and ineffective. No synergy has developed between guys playing together for multiple years. No development of team identity, go to plays or players. Perhaps it is all chalked up to discontinuity of all the personnel. but I think in year two when all weber's guys left, and when Groce establihsed that he wanted to bring in older more experienced transfers to lead the team now rather than develop the guys he had (because he has no idea how to), patterns were established that show no sign of stopping. He and his assistants have littel feel for the game and do not make most of these players better individually or as a team. Though I would say Morgan, Finke and Black have all made good or great strides and coaches should get some credit there.

 

[OrangeKrus28]

I'll throw another name out there:
Frank Martin----I'm not a big fan of his theatrics/drill instructor-like demeanor and how he yells at his kids, but you can't argue with his success. His style is very B10 like. Defensive-minded coach who instills discipline in his players. His recruiting isn't half bad either. He is like a blend of Bob Knight and Gene Keady. I'm not saying he'd ever leave So. Carolina but look at how he's turned that program around.

 

[Sal Iacuzzo]

Musselman is starting to make a lot of sense to me. Might bring in Jordan Caroline as a 5th year transfer which would be a nice bonus.

Maybe I'm getting a little too excited about the "Player Development" section of his wikipedia article, but that is something sorely lacking in Champaign. I like that it references him helping both guards and big men with their games.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Orangekrus28, I agree with you. Just sharing something from a few years ago. A real push to hire a minority coach....and I believe that will be the emphasis again, from the trustees.

Nope. That issue, totally overblown as it was in its heyday, is totally, 1000% stone dead today, first as a result of Bruce Rauner's election and subsequent nominations to the board, and then dug up, killed again, and reburied by the Lovie hire.

Illinois is no longer the only school in the conference never to have a minority revenue sport head coach. It's now a school with a black chancellor and the only school in the country with a black HC/OC/DC in football. People exist who would like to see an African-American men's basketball coach at UI. But pressure from the board of trustees to do so will not exist now or in any forseeable future, period, end of story.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Agreed, Tony Bennett would be the most qualified basketball coach we've ever hired.

If ANY school lured Tony Bennett away from Virginia, that would be the best hire by anyone since UNC landed Roy. That includes Self to Kansas and Cal to UK.

 

[MadSeason]

If ANY school lured Tony Bennett away from Virginia, that would be the best hire by anyone since UNC landed Roy. That includes Self to Kansas and Cal to UK.

Depends what you are looking for I guess. Calipari to Kentucky was an almost perfect evil union

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I know these beatdowns get old, but at the end of the day, Coach Groce has had an unbelievable run of bad luck in the last two years.

The character and behavior of the players you recruit is not luck. Not by a long shot.

We've had every single player healthy enough to play in every single game this year unless I'm missing something.

Groce had an unfortunate but believable string of injuries last season that did not excuse the degree of our underperformance, but did leave considerable hope for what was possible with the returning roster. And here we are.

I remain an optimist about this team. I am choosing not to believe that a conference finish in the 6-12 sort of range is not the most likely outcome. But if that happens, the decision here is not even close. You'd need a list like the one you made three pages longer in order to explain the degree to which we have failed to meet the most reasonable of expectations.

 

[Bphill05]

Offense or Defense

I'll throw another name out there:
Frank Martin----I'm not a big fan of his theatrics/drill instructor-like demeanor and how he yells at his kids, but you can't argue with his success. His style is very B10 like. Defensive-minded coach who instills discipline in his players. His recruiting isn't half bad either. He is like a blend of Bob Knight and Gene Keady. I'm not saying he'd ever leave So. Carolina but look at how he's turned that program around.

I have been following Frank Martin for some time and I don't approve of all of his methods either but he is a very good coach. He is also very good with turning around program. However one thing he is not great at is teams that produce offense. This is the same with Bennett at Virginia and Huggins at WVU. This is also why these teams rarely make it as far as they are projected. When great defense fails these teams can lose to anyone. I am as tired of stagnant offense as every other Illini fan, and this is why we need a more offensive minded coach. ILL...

 

[FollowTisdale]

I have my doubts like all of you, but did John Beilein and Thad Matta become bad coaches this year all of a sudden? Or is their talent sub-par?

Painter, who I believe is just a notch below Izzo, struggled for years b/c he didn't have talent. You have to have talent to be successful. Weber is a really good coach, but he struggled when he didn't have talent.

Next season, Groce will have talent, albeit unproven talent, but a massive upgrade in athleticism.

Injuries have turned Abrams and Thorne into subpar BIG players. Tate never working on his shooting has made him unplayable.

Tejon is just now getting playing time b/c of his preseason injury set him back, but he needs to develop his shot or we'll continue playing 4-5 on offense. Kipper just started playing after having to sit out the first semester.

Maverick and Malcolm are playing pretty well. Leron and Michael have had good moments. JCL is finding his groove after another preseason injury. I hope and believe that AJ and maybe DJW will be played more out of necessity.

We'll see

John Beilein has made the championship game and the elite 8 three times and put several unheralded (relatively) recruits into the NBA. Thad Matta has made the final 4 and the elite 8 three times and put recruits in the NBA. Matt Painter has made 2 sweet 16s and put several recruits in the NBA.

John Groce has put 0 players in the NBA, is under .500 in the big ten over 5 years, and reached the sweet 16 once by upsetting Michigan then beating a 12 seed. He also has more 20+ point losses in 4.5 years than Illinois has had in the last 30+ years as a basketball program.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Comes down to what you prioritize more. Regular season success vs tournament success. I understand the hesitation to annoint someone a good coach because they get hot during tourney once. However, Kruger made the Elite 8 at one school and Final 4 at another. Thats no fluke and it is worth alot. If polled i guarantee 99% of this board would rather finish this season in Elite 8 vs top of Big Ten standings and one and done in tourney if given option.

Like it or not, success in college hoops= tourney success.

Success is tourney success, totally agree.

However, we're not measuring success, we're measuring likelihood of future success. We don't care how happy Nevada or UNC-Wilmington fans are, we want to know what WE'RE gonna get. And to do that the question is not what is success, but what is predictive, what gets at the underlying quality of the team/coach.

To analogize to another sport where drawing out the difference between random sequencing and underlying quality of performance, think of these resumes as pitchers. I'm signing a free agent in the offseason, which guy do I want?

John Groce at Ohio was a guy who had a 4.10 ERA and walked almost as many as he struck out, but who threw a no-hitter in an elimination game in the playoffs.

Kevin Keatts is a guy with a 2.60 ERA who struck out a batter an inning for a 95-loss team.

Baseball has gotten smart about this in the past couple decades. College AD's should have a similar level of understanding.

 

[EJ33]

I have my doubts like all of you, but did John Beilein and Thad Matta become bad coaches this year all of a sudden? Or is their talent sub-par?

Painter, who I believe is just a notch below Izzo, struggled for years b/c he didn't have talent. You have to have talent to be successful. Weber is a really good coach, but he struggled when he didn't have talent.

Next season, Groce will have talent, albeit unproven talent, but a massive upgrade in athleticism.

Injuries have turned Abrams and Thorne into subpar BIG players. Tate never working on his shooting has made him unplayable.

Tejon is just now getting playing time b/c of his preseason injury set him back, but he needs to develop his shot or we'll continue playing 4-5 on offense. Kipper just started playing after having to sit out the first semester.

Maverick and Malcolm are playing pretty well. Leron and Michael have had good moments. JCL is finding his groove after another preseason injury. I hope and believe that AJ and maybe DJW will be played more out of necessity.

We'll see

It's not that hard to just look this stuff up before you post it. Painter did not struggle for years. He has made the NCAAs 9/13 years. He missed his first year at Purdue (no players) and then made 6 in a row. He then missed 2 years and is currently building another streak - this year will make it 3 in a row.

 

[Illi0105]

If ANY school lured Tony Bennett away from Virginia, that would be the best hire by anyone since UNC landed Roy. That includes Self to Kansas and Cal to UK.

I always thought that Tony Bennett was going to be the successor to Bo at UW due to his coaching/playing history and the family ties. With Greg Gard off to a good start there, it seems like that won't be an option any time soon.

It'd be worth a call from JW to see if on the off chance he'd want to return to the midwest. Sounds like he has family in the area since his sister was the head coach at Northern Illinois until last season.