On paper, our resume looks as good or better than any bubble team, but I worry that we're missing a top quality win that most other bubble teams have. We have no wins against ranked opponents, while a lot of other bubble teams have signature wins against highly ranked opponents.
Bracketology
- Status
Deleted member 8213
D
Guest
Sold! Cancel the rest of the season let's take this deal.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
That's what I was thinking.
As of yesterday. New update will be out between 1-2pm est. I think they have a good chance of jumping to the positive side today. A couple of the teams ahead of them on the matrix have been trending down over the last few days.
If everyone played the same schedule inside the same conference, I could get onboard with this. If a team plays the five ranked conference opponents twice and mid-conference on the road, why should they be penalized because of luck of the draw? A worse team in the same conference could play two games against the worst and luck into having a 10-8 record just based on who they play.
I read this criticism A LOT and it doesn't make any sense in big conferences with uneven schedules. There are some years that teams are almost disqualified before you even start because of how unlucky your double plays are.
I did some spot checking, of the brackets that have updated, we were in around 80% of them. So I'd expect we'll be well over the 50 mark after today's update.
Must.... keep..... winning!
I figure there will be upsets next week in the conference tournaments which will take away a bunch of at large spots. Which will make last 4 in a very precarious position
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
In this season's college basketball and given how we are playing, I'd actually be pretty optimistic - at least hopeful - if we can just avoid getting a 12-seed (if we even get in). I'd absolutely take being an 11-seed and having to win a play-in game if it means getting a shot at a 6 and a 3.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
If we did get into the tournament and were a 12-seed, I could see us being a popular pick for the classic 12/5 upset. Team with a lot of experience that is playing well at the right time.
Mid-majors are down this year, so there's not as much of risk of losing at-large bids as usual. This late season surge is turning the dance invite into a nail biter, which is a heck of a lot better than where we were.
Don't really have a ton of time to dig but I can't imagine there are that many bid thieves on a yearly basis. Maybe 2-3 on average. Right now the only threat would be Midd Tenn St not winning their tourney or a major upset in a multi bid league. I think it would be difficult to have WSU or ISU in with a third team winning the league, maybe one but not both. UNCW would be a stretch to make it other than winning their league as well.
Starting to wonder if just beating Michigan will be enough to lock up a bid. Michigan is being touted as an 8 seed so beating them twice in the same season might be all we need
For those procrastinators who've put off buying their BTT tickets until the last minute, now is the time. Lower level tickets start at $4 for behind the basket seats. I am guessing Illinois is the nine seed and got third row Section 120 near their bench for less than $25.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Absolutely agree, and I think we might even be a darkhorse Sweet Sixteen pick to upset the 4/5 winner, but after that ... this team ain't beatin' a 1-seed, haha.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
We wont need to if a 16 seed knocks them out first
Or an 8/9 in the Second Round!!
*Confidence restored*
Don't understand why Mich is being hyped up so much. They're slightly higher than us in RPI and while they have better wins than we do it's not like they deserve a bid so much more than the Illini...
I don't think WSU or ISU not winning is as much of a threat as the AAC conference with a team like UConn, Memphis, Houston,or Temple getting hot and winning it all. Or perhaps if BYU wins the WCC. The thing about the power conferences is there are so many teams you usually have to go an extra game, or two to win it all as an underdog.
Unless I'm doing something wrong, if ILL wins and both mich and Iowa lose we are the 7 seed by virtue of tiebreaker (we would be 3-1, Iowa 1-2 and mich 1-2 in games played among all three teams head to head).
I feel like it would probably be enough; in fact it might be the case that Michigan is not that far the other side of the bubble; we could bump them down to play-in or even out and slide on up.
BYU has a 1.6% chance of winning the WCC. Cincy and SMU probably account for about 80-85% chance of winning the AAC.
Bracket matrix has been updated today. We are currently projected last 4 in....
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
on stub hub, direct from verizon center or elsewhere?
bumping them off would be poetic justice
- Status